Welcome to the halfway mark for the Seattle Kraken’s 2023-24 season. The Kraken have now played 41 games, so we thought it would be a good idea to give an overview of what has transpired so far, what the team is doing well, and what it can improve.
Season overview
Coming off last year’s emotional highs of notching 100 standings points and reaching Game 7 of the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there were definitely elevated expectations coming into the 2023-24 season. But the Kraken quickly realized success was not going to be handed to them on a silver platter and lost their first four games in October.
Seattle clawed back, going 8-5-4 in their next 17 games to get to .500 and sneak into a the last wild card spot just in time for Thanksgiving.
Historically, most teams in a playoff position on Turkey Day have a higher percentage chance to make the playoffs at season’s end, so that brought the Seattle fanbase some good feelings. Most folks chose to forget that the Kraken had played more games than their opponents at the time, and instead just celebrated the temporary playoff spot.
The boys then apparently ate too many carbs and rattled off an eight-game losing streak. This was the low point of the season, but it was also representative of why I love hockey; things can change so quickly, and just when you think a team is dead in the water, it turns the tide and gets back in the race. The end of that eight-game skid was also the start of the Kraken’s current 12-game point streak (10-0-2), which has since evolved into an eight-game win streak.
Team statistics
Positives for the Kraken
Individual efforts
Vince Dunn
Dunn signed a four-year, $29.4 million extension and is delivering on it in his first season on the new contract. The defenseman leads the team in points with 34 (8-26—34) and is on pace for 68 points, which would be the best season of his career.
At the halfway mark last season, Dunn had 29 points, and the Kraken as a whole had 125 goals. This season, the team’s goal scoring is down at 115 goals, so Dunn has contributed to 30 percent of Seattle’s scoring. That is up seven percent from last year. Dunn scored on 9.4 percent of his shots on goal last year, and that has slightly improved to 10.5 percent this season. His shooting percentage has steadily improved as his ice time has increased.
Eeli Tolvanen
Tolvanen is on pace to break 50 points this year, which would be a career best. The winger leads the team in even-strength goals with 10 and even-strength points at 21. Tolvanen’s line with Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand has been the most consistent forward trio this season and has stayed together for almost the whole campaign. Per leftwinglock.com they are the most frequently used line combination for the Kraken.
Joey Daccord
Daccord has been lights out since taking over the starting job when Philipp Grubauer got hurt on Dec. 9. The 27-year-old netminder has started 12 of the last 13 games and gone 9-1-2 in that span. For the season, Daccord has two shutouts and a .923 save percentage. His ability to play the puck makes it harder for teams to dump and chase, and he helps the Kraken on the breakout by making the first pass. He has made timely, enormous saves to keep the Kraken in games, including a stunner against the Capitals in Thursday’s 4-1 win.
Record-breaking streak
The Kraken are currently on a franchise-record 12-game point streak. They have also tied the record they set last season around this time with eight consecutive wins and will look to break that record Saturday in Columbus.
During the first half of this season, I did get some vibes of the inaugural season, when the team worked hard but couldn’t score enough and gave up bad goals at bad times. This season the Kraken have identified an issue with scoring and changed their style of play to a more defensive style, and their goalie has simultaneously caught fire. Now, Seattle’s offense is also clicking as key players like Andre Burakovsky and Jaden Schwartz have returned from injury, and the Tomas Tatar trade is showing positive early returns.
Line depth
Questions about replicating the fourth line’s production from last year were definitely prevalent early in the season. Due to injuries and a lack of chemistry, the fourth line has been a rotating group this year. With Tatar being acquired from Colorado on Dec. 16, and Schwartz and Burakovsky back, coach Dave Hakstol can now roll four lines.
With these changes, Jared McCann, Tye Kartye, and Burakovsky now make up the team’s “fourth” line, though the distribution of minutes has been pretty even across the forward groups so far. McCann, in response to a question from Sound Of Hockey‘s own Darren Brown, called it, “Probably the best fourth line in the National Hockey League.”
The Kraken’s success last season was partly attributed to being able to roll four consistent lines that could score, but even when it was at its best, the trio of Daniel Sprong, Morgan Geekie, and Ryan Donato played true fourth-line minutes. The Kraken forward depth is now the deepest it has been in its first three years.
Things to improve
Losing streaks
The eight-game losing streak was definitely the low point of the season. To add salt to the wound of losing eight in a row, three of those losses were against struggling NHL clubs; the Chicago Blackhawks, the Montreal Canadiens and the Ottawa Senators. The Kraken also started the season off with a four-game losing streak, and prior to the current win streak, they had not won more than two games in row.
With the current line depth, defensive-minded style of play, and elite goaltending, losing streaks should be reduced in the second half. There is still plenty of work ahead for the Kraken, though, as outlined in this article on the team’s playoff chances.
Individual performance
Philipp Grubauer
For one reason or another, it has been hard to get both Grubauer and the Kraken skaters to consistently play well with each other. This season has been no different. Grubuaer has a .884 save percentage, which is hard to overcome with Seattle’s scoring rate (2.80 goals per game). We never like to see a player injured, but Grubuaer’s injury has opened the door for Daccord, and he has flourished in the starting role.
While Daccord has dazzled, the team has played better at both ends of the ice in front of him. Curtis Isacke recently wrote, “I found that in virtually every gameplay situation, the Seattle Kraken generate better shot quality offensively and significantly suppress opponent shot quality defensively when Daccord is on the ice.”
Eventually Grubauer will return, so here’s hoping that when he does, the Kraken skaters keep playing this way, and he can build some confidence behind them.
Matty Beniers
Beniers is currently on pace for only 38 points, significantly off the pace of his 57-point Calder Trophy season. He had a 16.2 shooting percentage last year, and that has regressed to 8.3 percent in 2023-24.
The good news is he is shooting just as much as he did last season and is on pace for a similar number of shots, so we can expect his conversion rate to trend up. Returning to 16 percent is a lot to ask, but in the 10-13 percent range is realistic. Over the last 10 games, Beniers has six points, so there are positive signs there, and he and Jordan Eberle seem to be working well with Tatar.
More good news, Beniers is still young and could just be dealing with a sophomore slump. Continuing to play and get experience is the best thing for him, and we have no doubt he can turn it around.
Injury bug
The Kraken got struck by the injury bug during the first half of the season. The following players have missed time: Andre Burakovsky (29 games), Brandon Tanev (16), Jaden Schwartz (16), Philipp Grubauer (13), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (7), Jordan Eberle (4).
That adds up to 85 games lost to injuries. This is essentially 2 key players lost for each game this season. Both Grubauer and Bellemare are still on injured reserve, but with Daccord holding down the fort in net and McCann/Burakovsky playing on the “fourth” line, the Kraken are set up to continue riding their recent wave of success. Remaining healthy will be key for the second half.
Overall
The Kraken dug themselves a hole in the first half of the season, and their current win streak has almost gotten them out of it. They are still on the playoff bubble, though, currently tied in points with the Nashville Predators for the last wild card spot. The Predators have two more regulation wins than the Kraken, which means they technically have the last playoff position right now.
It should be noted that the Kraken have played in 12 games that went to overtime. Only the New York Islanders have played more overtime games (14), and both the Columbus Blue Jackets and Toronto Maple Leafs are tied with the Kraken at 12.
Seattle has won only three of those OT games and lost nine. Out of a maximum possible 24 points, the Kraken earned 15 points in OT games (nine points for each OT/shootout loss and six points for the three wins). In the NHL standings that works out to a .625 (15/24) points percentage. So keep your head up when the Kraken lose in overtime or a shootout because the Kraken still get a valuable point in those scenarios, and 3-on-3 overtime and shootout results do not matter once you make the playoffs.
The second half looks bright for the Kraken, but one thing is true: they will have to perform better than they did in the first half.
Eventually Grubauer will return, so here’s hoping that when he does, the Kraken skaters keep playing this way, and he can build some confidence behind them.
Do we really hope that happens? It’s been three years and I’m not sure even if he stated playing well it would last. I actually hope that Joey is for real and he takes the starting roll. We will not be able to keep both goalies past next season if Joey keeps playing well as I’m sure we all want to see. I’d rather have the better puck moving goalie going forward if he continues to excel. The easiest way I see that happening if for Grubauer to continue sucking and we buy him out.
I definitely hope once Grubauer returns that he plays better. What is better than having a stud goaltender? Having two.
Buying out a player is not a great option for the team. Check out the buyout breakdown on capfriendly.com for Grubauer:
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/philipp-grubauer
He would stay on the teams books for 6 years and only save 5.6 million overall. If he continues to underperform, I would rather the Kraken have the highest paid back-up rather than buy him out. What I hope to happen, is he recognizes he lost the starting job and uses that as motivation to push and get better. We saw this a bit last year when Gru was hurt and Martin Jones had an incredible run. Having 2 competing goalies will elevate both goaltenders and provide depth if there is another injury. If somehow the Kraken luck out and get into the situation where Driedger is also contributing, then we get into the driver seat and have the upper hand in trade talks.
I’m thinking past next season, Daccord will not resign with us as a second goaltender if he continues to play well and I hope he does. If he continues to play well he’s the guy that we need to go with as the both option will not be on the table. I’d prefer we just rip the bandage off, as you mentioned Gru played fairly well after Jones put pressure on his starting position but he’s been horrible this season again. I don’t want a goalie that unpredictable around, just my opinion but I’d rather just move on and admit he wasn’t a good fit for the kraken.
“…recognizes he lost the starting job and uses that as motivation to push and get better…”
This smacks of my worst suspicions about Grubauer, and I honestly hope this isn’t the case. I’d like to think he’s just actually not a very good goaltender. We here it all the time, “they’re professionals” right up until they suck or have a problem… then they’re “human beings”. Truth is, they’re both. As a professional, Grubauer’s contract and commitment should be motivation enough. After seeing him step up against his old team in the playoffs, I have to wonder if his motivation is personal rather than professional.
Buying out Grubauer is not great cap wise, so Francis should attempt a trade first by TDL. If that does not work, then a buyout. That gives them the funds next year to trade this season for and sign Lindholm. The team needs a 1C and the best way is to dump Grubauer.
As a very long time player, I have long gotten the “vibe” that the other players don’t like playing with/for Grubauer and so do not put in the same effort (see other article Curtis recently posted). Think the team is better off without him and going with Daccord and Driedger next season.
If they went Lindholm, Beniers, Gourde, and Wright down the middle next year, that could work, while they start working the 2022 draft class into the pro ranks.
This might be an unpopular opinion but hear me out. Not making the playoffs might be the best thing for the Kraken. The organization has several aging players on expiring contracts and a log-jam of young bubble AHL/NHL players with more high performing prospects on the way. Selling off some vets for draft assets and moving youngsters to the big club to round out the season might help our team develop into a true contender over the next couple of years. Don’t get me wrong, I certainly want the Kraken to make the playoffs – they’re way too fun! If they took one of the wild card spots, there is a chance they could face the Canucks in a first round playoff battle. That would be a great way to continue building the rivalry. I am just trying to pose that making the playoffs and not making the playoffs both have their advantages.
djdw00… yes that is something that definitely made me wonder. Grubauer on his game is an amazing goalkeeper but we rarely see him play up to potential. He typically has played very well vs the Avs playoff and regular season although this year I believe he wasn’t great if I recall. I want to see a consistent effort period, yes even the great goaltenders have ups and downs but we’re in year three!!!! 😂
Mark Davis, I’d like to see them do both to be honest and I think it’s possible to trade some vets on expiring contracts and still take a run at the playoffs. We have two capable forwards in the rafters and or injured at the moment and some young defensive stud who should be in the lineup in my opinion. It would be the best long term move to get some assets for our vets at the deadline if we don’t intend to resign them.
Bob Courcy, I’m not sure if I’m just reading my biased opinion into the matter but I swear that the team really enjoys having Daccord around and wants him to succeed. It also seems to me that our two tenders are excited for each other, really like each other and are talking all the time. It’s something I’ve never noticed with Grubauer in the net.
Is a prospect update coming soon? Looking at the stats from the Firebirds, I am curious about how the organization views Logan Morrison and Ville Ottavainen, who both seem to be doing quite well in the AHL.
“This season the Kraken have identified an issue with scoring and – changed their style of play – to a more defensive style, and their goalie has simultaneously caught fire.”
You linked to an article – changed their style of play – from a January 4th article. In it Darren dove into the high-danger shots against numbers that John had been pointing to as a factor behind the Kraken turnaround. Specifically, it was pointed out that during the eight game losing streak the Kraken were allowing an average of 7.5 high-danger shots against versus 5.56 since. Well, since the article, the Kraken have played three games and allowed double-digit high-danger shots in each game. Last night, they doubled the losing streak average by allowing 15… and yet, Joey only allowed one to get past. Over the last three games, the “new identity” defense has surrendered 10.81 expected goals against – 4.02 last night – but Joey has allowed only four… almost seven goals saved above expected… in three games!
As Yanni Gourde said, this has always been a defense first team. The last few games haven’t been great, but they’re not “bottom of the league ” either. There is not some reinvention going on here. This has always been a top-of-the-league defense. They are scoring more points lately, but change on the goals against side of the ledger is the goaltending… period. I think you’re misrepresenting the conclusions Curtis arrived at in Part 1 of his article. From the same article…”the timing of the team’s defensive adjustments noted by Dunn and Hakstol does not materially change my observation that the team suppresses shots against at a higher rate with Daccord in goal. Recall that I began working on this analysis because of numbers I was seeing in late November, before the Grubauer injury and recent win streak.” Again, it’s the goalie.. not the already excellent defense and the shot suppression Curtis was referring to is not something new.
I know the team has been talking a lot about this as well, but there’s been a lot of hemming and hawing when they’re asked about it. When Schultz was asked last night about what’s different, he mentioned they’d been getting off to “good starts” and not falling behind. Their last two starts have been atrocious… absolutely horrendous… except for the goaltending. He was quietly saying, “it’s the goaltending”. I respect that they don’t want to single out one individual (at the expense of another), but come on… it’s Joey.
What I find so frustrating about this whole “new commitment to defense” line is it just sounds like cover for Grubauer. For two-and-a-half seasons we’ve been hearing how the defense hasn’t been there, how costly turnovers or untimely mistakes are the cause, or how “you really can’t blame that one on the goalie” (my personal favorite) but maybe he’s just not very good? And that’s fine… but we shouldn’t pretend the defense hasn’t been excellent, or that Joey isn’t doing what he IS doing because of what it would say about the guy who is getting paid.
By the way… since the losing streak, they have been averaging over seven high-danger shots against per game… and yet they’re still No.4 in the league… right near the top where they’ve been all along. For a little context, Carolina leads the league at 9.92 HDCA/60… almost 33% higher than Seattle’s average during the losing streak.
I don’t buy this “more defensive style of play” story.
Djdw00… I respect that they don’t want to single out one individual (at the expense of another), but come on… it’s Joey.
It’s complicated Grubauer is “the face of the franchise” for whatever reason and is locked up for another three plus seasons. As players they have to be in a very difficult position. It’s a thin line being supportive of Joey without making it look as though you’re throwing grubauer under the bus.
I agree 100%. I understand why the players and coaches are saying what they’re saying… but the rest of us don’t have to. The rest of us should be cheering the stacked, healthy lineup that is scoring goals AND the No.1 goalie in the league. We shouldn’t be giving a shout-out to some fictitious new commitment to defense just so we can maintain a false narrative.
Good solid review. Why isn’t Driedger getting more attention. Wish team could move Grubi tho I know it’s practically impossible.
I think it is case of Daccord is playing so well they are riding the hot hand. The team does have a back-to-back coming up. They play the Blue Jackets on Saturday, then have back-to-back vs the Penguins Monday and the Rangers on Tuesday. I would be looking for a Driegder sighting vs the Penguins.
Is Blaiz your real name?