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The Seattle Kraken are on a team-record 10-game streak with at least a point in the standings. They’ve gone 8-0-2 in that stretch, good for 18 out of a possible 20 points, thrusting them right back into the playoff conversation.
The wins definitely help Seattle’s playoff chances, but there’s plenty of work to do to solidify a position. The Kraken will likely remain in a fight for a wild card spot for the foreseeable future, and perhaps the rest of the season.
“Our playoff battle is still ahead, and it’s still an uphill battle,” Kraken coach Dave Hakstol said Saturday. “But what our players have done is stay with it through some thick and thin here, stick together, and now that’s what you have to do is… dig in in the second half [of the season].”
As of the writing of this story, Seattle is sitting at 41 points and in the last wild card spot in the Western Conference but is near the top of the league in number of games played at 39. All the teams the Kraken are in competition with for wild card spots have played fewer games, so realistically, Seattle is in a lower spot than the standings suggest.
With that in mind, we wanted to paint a more sensible picture of how the Kraken’s playoff chances actually look, now that they’ve gotten themselves back in the hunt. For Seattle’s 43 remaining games, we reviewed strength of schedule (SOS), considered how many points the Kraken need, and created a breakdown of Kraken opponents. This can hopefully serve as a blueprint for the games the Kraken need to win moving forward.
Strength of schedule
The strength of schedule looks at how tough or easy Seattle’s matchups will be, at least on paper. The Kraken are in good shape here, as they have the fourth-easiest schedule remaining in the NHL, according to tankathon.com. Interestingly, a large portion (13 of 16) of the teams with the easiest schedules are in the Western Conference.
This is notable since the Kraken play each Western Conference team either three or four times per year and Eastern Conference teams only twice. The Kraken have 26 games remaining against Western Conference opponents and 17 against the Eastern Conference. The games against the Western Conference will have increased importance because any losses against Western Conference teams would both hurt Seattle and also help another team in direct competition with the Kraken.
How many points does Seattle need?
Before the start of the season, our own John Barr wrote, “When looking over the last 11 seasons, excluding the 2019-20 season that had a unique play-in format, the average minimum point total of the bottom playoff team was 92.4 points on the season.”
The Kraken are currently sitting at 41 points, so from John’s methodology, they would need another 52 points in 43 games to be an average bottom-of-the-pack qualifier. That would put them at 93 points, which would not guarantee a playoff spot, but it would put them in real contention to be in the postseason. Out of the last four full seasons, 93 points would have gotten a team into the playoffs 50 percent of the time. 95 points improves that number to 75 percent.
The Kraken would need ~1.2 points per game or three wins every five games the rest of the way.
Schedule breakdown
We’ve broken the Kraken’s remaining opponents into three categories: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers.
- Playoff Bound – Teams that should make the playoffs; those near the top of the standings
- Bubble – Teams fighting to make the playoffs, most likely as wild cards
- Tankers – Teams most likely to miss the playoffs; should be Seattle’s easiest opponents
Playoff-bound teams
Eastern Conference – Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs
Western Conference – Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Vegas Golden Knights, Los Angeles Kings
There are 14 games left against teams bound for the playoffs. These will be hard-fought games, but Seattle will need to win some of these if it expects to earn a playoff spot. Unscientifically, we’re targeting a 45-percent win rate against this group. There are 28 points available, so if the Kraken can grab six wins and 12 points they will be in good shape.
The Kraken have had success against Florida, Colorado, Vancouver, Vegas, and Los Angeles this season but have also lost to teams in that group.
Bubble teams
Eastern Conference – Philadelphia Flyers, Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings
Western Conference – Arizona Coyotes, Edmonton Oilers, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames
The Kraken are smack dab in the middle of this group. Assuming the playoff-bound teams all make the postseason, only two teams from each conference in this category will qualify. To make the playoffs, the Kraken need to show they can consistently beat these teams.
Defeating the Western Conference bubble teams in regulation should always be the goal, as the club will not want to give any of these opponents standings points. There are 18 remaining games against bubble teams, and we’re setting a win target of 65 percent. This would earn the Kraken 22 points out of a possible 36.
Tanker teams
Eastern Conference – Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference – Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks
These are teams Seattle should beat 100 percent of the time, but this is the NHL, and every game is tough. The Kraken have 12 games remaining against “tankers” and will need to win 90 percent of them, based on our projections here. That would give Seattle 20 points out of a possible 24 against this category of teams.
Seattle can make it
The Kraken’s 10-game point streak has put them in a realistic conversation for a playoff spot. We are optimistic they can earn a playoff berth, but they have to continue their strong play. As of Jan. 5, Seattle’s point total is 41 points. Following the win percentage targets above, 12 (playoff bound) + 22 (bubble teams) + 18 (tanker teams) + 41 (Kraken current points) = 93 points.
The Kraken need to win at roughly a 65-percent rate for the rest of the season, which would be an improvement over their current win percentage of 52.6. Games against Western Conference bubble teams will be Seattle’s most important games, but the Kraken cannot take nights off against the tanker teams. And exceeding the 45-percent win-rate target against playoff-bound teams will help create a cushion.
The Kraken have 21 home games and 22 road games remaining, so it’s a pretty even split. They are about to start a six-game road trip and will end the campaign on a four-game road trip in April, so February and March will contain a whopping 15 home games.
Monthly scorecard
Moving forward, we will update the below “monthly scorecard” to keep you informed on how the Kraken are doing against the targets we’ve set here.
Update (Jan. 31) – The Kraken fell a little behind the pace accumulating 11 points out of the forecasted plan for 14 points. They are still in the hunt, but will need to make up three points during the rest of the season. February will be a make or break month as the Kraken only have games against Playoff Bound and Bubble teams. After a tough loss to the San Jose Sharks to end the month, the Kraken go on break until Feb 10.
Update (Mar. 1) – The Kraken accomplished the goal in February going 5-3-1 and achieved the forecasted 11 points. They got slow start to February, losing the first 2, but finished strong capped with a Philipp Grubauer shutout on Feb. 29 against the Penguins.
Update (Mar. 15) – We are moving to weekly updates. Latest can be found here.
Great article. The mushy middle is not an easy place to be as it comes down to what the philosophy of the front office is. Just happy to make the playoffs or be patient and keep trying to build a real contender? As it stands now we could have a similar playoff performance as last year’s team but would likely lead to false hope that cup contention is within reach. The Kraken need more scoring and a better power play to reach the top IMO. It pains me to say it but they should trade 1 or 2 of our expiring contracts this year to get some players or picks that could be combined with our current picks and/or prospects for trades in the next off-season. We’re still in building mode and some sacrifice now for long term gains is the right move. What say you?
I have a hard time watching players go that I like, but if the Kraken have a chance to improve from a trade I am up for it. The Kraken have a shot at the playoffs and a lot of hockey to play before the trade deadline. The Kraken have 8 draft picks in the upcoming draft and more picks are nice for the future, but unless we are getting an early 1st round pick in return, that pick may never make it to the NHL.
On the flip side, wildcard teams have made some noise in recent years, with Florida making the final last season. Montreal a few years back also made the final as the last team in the playoffs. As long as the Kraken have a shot, with the current team, I think they should push for it.
You’re right that we don’t need to draft more than the typical 6-7. My thoughts were that we would take any picks we get in a trade this year to then package with some of our existing picks/prospects to then trade for some significant pieces in the off-season. For instance, some of this year’s contenders need improvement in goal. If Grubi plays well when he’s back would Ron be bold enough to make a move with Driedger? He’s not going to resign here to be in the AHL next year. Ebs is likely gone too due to age. Tatar (not resigning) has gotten hot since coming here and could likely fetch more than what we paid for him. Then there are the guys you hope to call up next year like Wright and Evans who need a spot.
We’re all riding high on this win streak but we also just had a horrible losing streak which probably means this team is somewhere in between. I.E., the dreaded mushy middle. Ron has a reputation for playing it safe so my hunch is he’ll either stand pat or make a low risk move and might be ok. I just don’t want this team to be another Minnesota or Calgary that can be competitive but always seems to tread water in the standings.
I found this totally fascinating… and it got me wondering about a few things.
I’m not smart enough to wrap my head around the effect of the added points available to the league with the addition of two expansion teams on the number of points needed to make the playoffs. Teams still play 82 games, but now there are at least 328 additional points available to the league. Maybe it’s nothing, but it seems like that 11 season average might be skewed a little low.
I was wondering about those tier assumptions: playoff bound, bubble, and tanker. I thought it might be worth seeing how last season’s team fared against these “tiers” to get an actual approximation of what to expect. Why last season’s team? Because setting aside all this analysis, if the Kraken play out this season at the same pace as all of last season (1.22 ppg = 100 points) then they land on the exact same 93 points that the above arrives at.
What I found was last season’s team did not “win” at these assumptions, yet scored the same 93 points… because of the loser point. The mish-mashing of wins, points, and win percentage led to a little confusion. I can understand the obvious convenience of leaving out loser points; but, what it means to me is… the Kraken don’t need to win at a roughly 65% rate, they need 65% of the available points… in the NHL, those are two very different things. The Kraken have only won 41% of their games this season, but they have a 52.6 “win percentage”.
Lastly, the three next easiest schedules belong to three of the four teams sitting just outside the playoffs with Seattle… Minnesota, Calgary, and Edmonton. It doesn’t feel like there’s much advantage here.
I think they can make the playoffs because, simply put, all they have to do is play the rest of this season as well as they played last season.
Go Kraken!!!
Point% and loser points do muddy the water somewhat, though I’ve recently taken to effectively ignoring them for an easier view on the big picture.
If you’re a .500 Point% team then obviously you’ll end the season with 82 points.
Almost counter-intuitively, the difference between your Wins and your Losses is how many points over/under 82 you will be. A loser point doesn’t change the year-end standings.
Example: Last year’s record 46-28-8 = 18 more Wins than Losses = 18points over 82 = 100Points.
If the target is 93 Points, that’s 11 more Wins than Losses come season’s end. Right now we have just 2 more Wins than Losses, so we need 9 more the rest of the season.
Also, I find looking at the Win-Loss totals in the standings easier to gage than Point% which obviously skews with number of games you’ve played.
i.e What’s the gap between EDM and SEA (as of 8th Jan?) well P% is .569 to .526 and I don’t really know how to interpret that to understand how far behind we are. But EDM has a record of 20-15-1 = +5 Wins. SEA has a record 16-14-9 = +2 Wins. So we’re 3 Wins behind them. That feels more tangible and understandable to me.
On a nightly basis a Win takes us a step closer, a Loss a step back, OTL and we stand pat.
Our current 8-0-2 record is outstanding, but also gives a sense of the size of what is needed to get in; we could chip away at it or at some point we need to put together another such streak in the second half of the season.
I’m basically just looking to see us climb to that +11 number and beyond!
@makingahabit… I like the way you break this out. Comparing Calgary and Vancouver last season also bears this out.