Most of my “Musings” do not come to me until the final Kraken game has been played for the week, so with a Sunday-night game against Toronto this week, I’m required to push the Monday Musings to Tuesday. For all of you who were refreshing your browser on Monday looking for these Musings, sorry, but “my process” is my process. (Foreshadowing: The Kraken have another Sunday game this coming week.)
Alright, the Kraken are streaking again!!! But, not in a good way. Seattle has now dropped four games since it won nine games in a row. Sickness, injuries, and now a suspension have made this stretch particularly challenging. To the credit of the players, I feel the effort was there in three of the four games, but the Kraken have zero points to show for it.
I talked about it on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast last week, but the high-end talent is abundantly obvious when they play against the likes of the New York Rangers, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs, and is obviously lacking for Seattle. That is not to say the Kraken cannot beat teams with high-end talent, but they need their traditional balanced approach with threats to score on all four lines. With Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn, and Yanni Gourde all out of the lineup, that balanced attack weakened.
Missing Vince Dunn
Dunn might be the most notable departure from the team right now. He had four goals and six assists over his last eight games and was on the ice for close to 50 percent of the Kraken’s power play time over that span. Dunn’s skill is another variable that a defensive unit needs to contend with, which might give opposing teams pause before playing aggressively during the Kraken power play.
The impact is that it opens other opportunities on the power play. Ryker Evans has been ok in backfilling for Dunn but will need a lot more time in the NHL before becoming a dynamic part of the Kraken power play.
Is it time to ignore face-off percentages?
After the Edmonton post-game broadcast, there was a little chatter about the Kraken’s struggles on the face-off dot. We have covered this before, but face-offs are not as meaningful as once considered. There are still a host of old-school believers in the importance of face-offs, which is why it gets discussed as a point of emphasis from time to time.
Let’s look at the Kraken’s face-off percentages this season and the outcomes by game.
It is easy to look at the last four games and point to the face-off percentages as proof that draws are important, but then look at the nine-game win streak. In only one of the nine games during the streak did the Kraken have a winning face-off percentage. Bottom line, there is certainly room for improvement in the face-off circle, but it is not the driving factor for the current string of losses.
Other Musings
There is no denying the Kraken have been struggling to score goals lately, but they are also struggling to get pucks on net. Sunday’s 17 shots versus the Toronto Maple Leafs ties a franchise record for the fewest shots on net in any game. The Kraken have now reached a franchise low of shots on net over a 10-game span.
- The Kraken are also not drawing a lot of penalties right now. Only the San Jose Sharks have fewer power-play opportunities per game in January.
- Based on historical records, I put the Kraken’s playoff chances at 22 percent. If they get six points out of a possible eight before the All-Star break, their chances jump to 32 percent. They increase to 40 percent if they manage eight out of eight.
- I believe if this team can get and stay healthy for the rest of the season, they can make the playoffs and disrupt any opponent with their balanced lineup, just like last year. Health remains a big question mark, though.
- Alex Wennberg played 14 minutes of Auston Matthews’ 21 minutes of time on ice Sunday. Wennberg’s contributions are appreciated.
- I still think about the below play and wonder if it would have changed the outcome of the game against the Oilers.
- As much as I love Wennberg, it is hard to imagine he will re-sign with Seattle and is likely a trade candidate if the Kraken are out of the playoff picture come Trade Deadline. If Wennberg is traded, I expect Shane Wright to be called up and stick with the Kraken for the remainder of the season.
- Andre Burakovsky still looks like he is struggling out there. He has one of the best shots on the team but has been off so far. He may need a few more games to settle back into his normal game.
Player performances
Jagger Firkus – Firkus continues to be incredible playing for the Moose Jaw Warriors. He had a hat trick on Friday against Swift Current and is averaging three points per game since returning from the IIHF World Junior Championship.
David Goyette – Another second-round selection for the Kraken has seven points over his last three games playing for the Sudbury Wolves in the OHL.
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard – A friend of the Sound Of Hockey pod and yet another second-round draft pick of the Seattle Kraken, Fisker Mølgaard has points in five straight games playing for HV71 in the top Swedish league. He has six points over those five games after notching just seven points in his prior 28 games. Oscar is still just 18 years old.
Chart(s) of the week
Remember how I said face-offs don’t matter? Well, one area I obsess on is the lack of face-off wins when killing a penalty. My logic is simple; if you win face-offs while killing a penalty in the defensive zone, you increase your chances to clear the puck and killing 15 to 20 seconds off the clock, thus limiting the number of shot attempts during the penalty kill.
AH HA! The data says the Seattle Kraken are the second worst at winning face-offs when killing penalties in the defensive zone. This confirms my eyes, correct? Well, sort of, but my logic might be flawed.
If my assertion is correct, a team’s penalty kill percentage should go up as its short-handed face-off win percentage in the defensive zone goes up. It would be illustrated in the graph with a trend line going from bottom left to upper right.
This visual says quite the opposite. My theory has holes, but it won’t stop me from pointing out that two of Edmonton’s goals last Thursday were after a Kraken defensive-zone face-off loss while Seattle was shorthanded.
Bottom line, there probably is some more research to be done here, but I am becoming more and more skeptical of face-offs as a meaningful stat. If only someone would have told me this before doing all this work.
Goal of the week
We all love a McCann Can.
The week ahead
Theoretically, this should be one of the easier four-game stretches on the schedule, as Seattle faces Chicago, St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose before the All-Star break/bye week. However, Yanni Gourde still has one more game to sit out due to his suspension, and there is no ETA provided for the return of either Beniers or Dunn. It is critical that the team secures at least four points out of a possible eight, but the Kraken really should aim higher, given the level of competition they will face.
As always, I appreciate the feedback, discussion, and thoughts in the comments section, even if they go against observations in the post. If there are any questions or areas you would like me to explore, leave a comment and I will either respond or post in future articles.
On Firkus’ hot streak since the WJC, I wonder is he was pissed about being cut in the first place then called over to just sit, for a Canada team that could not score enough. Revenge for sure.
Carson Rehkopf also has been hot since WJC, so wonder is he is similarly mad about being underplayed. Canada’s WJC coach certainly should never be called back.
While Firkus, Rehkopf, and Goyette have been lighting it up since WJC, Eduard Sale seems to have had a slow start with his new Kitchener team. Any thoughts on that?
I’m keeping an eye on Sale as well. I am not sure if this should be considered a yellow flag or just him getting used to North America ice. Way too early to have any serious concerns but something I am keeping an eye on. For Firkus and Rehkopf, they have been dynamite all year so I would not attribute it anything at world juniors.
Dunn has turned into a very effective d-man and I can appreciate the fire that he brings. A year ago I didn’t see what Francis had apparently always seen in him from the start so I hope he stays here for a long time.
As much as I’d love to make the playoffs I think trading our upcoming UFAs is the more prudent move for the long term health of the franchise. Wenny is underappreciated and I’d love to keep him but we do need to make room for Wright who we all hope will live up to the hype (although that has cooled since the draft). Ebs should be moved but maybe we’ll make a pitch to resign him in the off-season. Then again, he’ll likely seek out a Cup contender since he’s in his later years so this might be it for him unfortunately. I’m really curious what will happen with our goaltending. I’m sure that Driedger will get traded as he is better than (and won’t want to stay) an AHL goalie. It’s clearly Grubi’s and Joey’s net moving forward.
Thanks John