The Kraken have earned five out of a possible six points in their last three games and have a good opportunity to conclude the schedule before the break with two points against San Jose on Tuesday night.
The team has looked dominant at times over the latest stretch of games but has not put a complete effort together. Ironically, the best game of the three was probably against St. Louis, where the Kraken held a two-goal lead late in the second period but eventually lost in overtime.
Kraken lines
When Andre Burakovsky returned from injury, coach Dave Hakstol eased him into the lineup by placing him on the fourth line. He has been doing the same thing with Matty Beniers since his return from injury on Friday. It will be interesting to see how the lines shake out after the break.
Before the injury that forced him out for several games, Matty looked good on the top line, but the current top trio of Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle, and Tomas Tatar has been humming. They have scored six goals over the last three games, roughly 50 percent of the Kraken’s goals over that span. I doubt Hakstol would change anything on the Yanni Gourde, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Eeli Tolvanen line, so that leaves very few pieces to shuffle in the lineup.
I have always liked seeing Alex Wennberg centering Andre Burakovsky. They look comfortable, but I have not noticed sustained offensive pressure from that line. Burakovsky has missed a lot of hockey over the last year and still hasn’t really hit his stride, but there have been moments over the last week where he’s looked close to breaking out.
Squandered a point or three
On the surface, the loss against St. Louis looks like a squandered point, but it was really a three-point swing. The Kraken dominated play for most of the game, but they kept the Blues around when they could have put them away earlier in the match. Had Seattle closed it out in overtime, the Kraken would have 53 points in the standings right now, and the Blues would have 52. Instead, the Kraken have 52 points, and St. Louis has 54. That is a three-point difference. And, heck, if they had closed the Blues out in regulation, St. Louis would only have 50!
Other Musings
- Since convincing myself that face-offs do not matter last week, the Kraken have won the face-off battle in two out of the last three games. They won both of those games, but face-offs still don’t matter.
- The Kings’ decline has been fascinating to see. They will turn it around at some point, but with a win Tuesday, the Kraken will tie the Kings in standings points.
- There is a metric I look at from time to time called “net goals.” I define net goals as “goals for minus goals against, excluding all empty-net goals.” I looked at several seasons of data and determined that a team with a “net goals” value of zero for the season has a 60-percent chance of making the playoffs. Here is the running total of net goals for the season for the Kings and the Kraken.
- The New York Islanders (.529) and Florida Panthers (.519) had a points percentage just below the current Seattle Kraken (.531) percentage at this time last season and both made the playoffs. This playoff hunt is going to be very stressful. I can’t wait.
- This is the latest in a season the Seattle Kraken have a better points percentage at home (.542) than on the road (.520). Last season, they were better on the road than at home the entire season.
- The Kraken could really do themselves a favor during the month of March by establishing a true home-ice advantage. They have 10 home games and four road games in the month of March.
- Whenever I say anything critical about Tye Kartye, he goes out and scores a goal or two, so here it goes… Kartye has mostly met my expectations this year, but offensively, he has been cold of late. It would be nice to see him produce, especially with Matty as his center.
- The loss of Jaycob Megna on waivers puts the Kraken in a little bit of a tough spot with no defensive depth other than Evans, who they would probably prefer to see playing games versus healthy scratch. Seattle does have right-shot Cale Fleury waiting in the wings if needed.
- Evans has not played since Jan. 21 against the Toronto Maple Leafs. I would expect him to be sent down over the All-Star break and bye week. Coachella Valley plays three games in four days this week. What Seattle does with its defense after the break will be interesting.
- We have talked about the Kraken’s pending unrestricted free agents a lot lately. Assuming he still wants to play in Seattle, I could see Jordan Eberle signing an extension before the season is done. He has a six-game point streak with nine points over that stretch.
Player performance
Jared McCann – Has six goals and 13 points over the last nine games. He has been a key contributor in the Kraken’s success as of late.
Shane Wright – Wright has nine points in his last eight games playing for the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Maybe the Kraken brass knows what it is doing by letting him develop in the AHL this season.
Scott Ratzlaff – Seattle Thunderbirds goalie Scott Ratzlaff saved 96 of 100 shots he faced in back-to-back games this week, including 62 of 63 in a 3-1 win over the Everett Silvertips on Saturday. Math tells me that was a .960 save percentage. He was named the WHL Goalie of the Week. Ratzlaff was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Chart of the Week
One of the keys to the Kraken’s success lately has been special teams (power play and penalty kill). They are not overly dominant on either of them, but they have been good in both categories. Here is a look at the team’s power play and penalty kill over their last 20 games.
Goal of the Week
Wright was all smiles after this goal.
What I love about this play is how quickly he gets his shot off.
The week ahead
There is only one Kraken game before the All-Star break/bye week, and that is Tuesday against the San Jose Sharks. Seattle is playing relatively well right now, so the expectation is they will come away with a win, but any team can beat any team in the NHL.
The Sharks are tied for last in the league with 30 points in 49 games, but they have wins against Edmonton, Vancouver, Winnipeg, and the New York Rangers. Coach Dave Hakstol seemed to know that the team could be walking into a trap in his post-game media availability after the Columbus game on Sunday night, saying “We have one game left before a long break, so we have to get our heads completely focused on that job and make sure that we are ready to go for a real competitive 60 minutes.”
A win against the Sharks will (at least temporarily) put the Kraken tied in points with at least one of the current wild-card teams.
With the break coming up, it is a great time to assign me some research work. If you have any suggestions for areas you want me to dig into, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
Just wondering why Matty seems to be having an off year? It’s almost like he’s quietly disappeared in the stat line compared to last year.
John, you mentioned at one point in the podcast (I think) that it takes 5 years to develop a player from draft to productive NHL player. You are also asking for data projects 🙂 I would love to understand more the distribution of time (years? games?) that it takes for players to start contributing. Here’s how i think about the inputs/outputs:
factors
– position in draft ( higher draft picks develop faster?)
– position (goalies take longer to develop?)
– league (correlation to AHL v KHL v OHL)
result
– what percentage of drafts play even one game in the NHL?
– of those who make it to the NHL, how many go on to have a positive +/-?
– how long on average to “first NHL game”?
– what is the distribution of time/ games played required to contribute?
signed
Yanni’s Suffocating Pestilence
Sadly, last nights loss to the Sharks put them behind the 8 ball once again. They only looked slightly better than they did during the long “skid.”
February looks brutal… and losing to the Sharks didn’t help.
Last season, the team that put up one hundred points came out of the All-Star break on an east coast road trip and immediately dropped three in a row. That was on their way to a 4-6-1 February. This year, they start off with another swing out east beginning in Philly. After 10 days of rest, they face a tough Flyers team with two games already played to “shake off the rust”. Then it’s three in four days against the Devils, Islanders, and Bruins. Of the nine games they play in February, only the Wild have a lower win percentage than Seattle… and they shut the Kraken out last time.
If they want to push for the playoffs, now is the time to add. The deadline will be too late.
By the way, in two seasons, they are 5-13-2 (.300) in February coming out of the break… ouch! How bad is that? The Blackhawks are .300. The Sharks are now .320.