The 3-2 Kraken loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday unfolded largely as expected. It marked the Kraken’s first game after the All-Star break and bye week, while the Flyers were playing their third game since their break. Although the shot count might tell a different story, Seattle hung in there and battled, but to no avail. With a challenging February schedule ahead, the Kraken will need to figure out how to steal some of these games if they are going to have any chance at playing meaningful games in March.
“What’s up with Matty?”
We received a question on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast mailbag last week asking, “What’s up with Matty?” In case you haven’t been paying attention, Matty Beniers has just six goals in his first 46 games played this season versus 17 goals in his first 46 games played last season. I did not have too much to offer to the conversation other than it seems like there have been stretches where he has been afraid to shoot.
That is a common media narrative that gets thrown around when players are going through slumps, though. Can we test my theory? Welcome to my Sunday project. (Coincidentally, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic also put out a “deep dive” article on Beniers Monday, but theirs focused on his defensive prowess. It’s an interesting article, so give that a read in addition to the below to get the full scope of the state of Matty’s game.)
First, I looked at Beniers’ shots per game and shot attempts per game. If my theory is accurate, the numbers would show a year-over-year decline.
Ok, it looks like there may be something to my theory. There is a decline, but the .18 decrease in shots per game is only a reduction of 10 percent compared to last season, whereas the drop of 11 goals per game from 17 at this point last season is a reduction of 65 percent. Are shots the best proxy for a player’s willingness to shoot? Probably not.
To increase the sample size, I looked at Matty’s shot attempts per game compared to last season. For those that might not know, shot attempts include shots on net, missed shots, and shots that get blocked.
Wait a second, that shows an increase in shooting season over season. This increase is a little misleading, though, because Beniers is averaging roughly 40 more seconds of ice time per game this season and therefore has more time to get shot attempts. If we account for extra time on ice, the shot attempt rate is roughly the same compared to last season. Still, my theory of Beniers being afraid to shoot at times suddenly isn’t standing up.
I went further down the rabbit hole, and over to NaturalStatTrick.com, looking into the rate of high-danger chances Matty has generated this season compared to last.
I then looked at his shot attempts on a map (minus blocked shots) to see if there was anything that stood out season over season.
There isn’t a huge difference season over season, other than a few more shots from farther out in 2022-23. Let’s see how his shot attempts look in man-advantage scenarios.
When you isolate the power-play shot attempts (minus blocked shots), you can see that Beniers has taken almost all his shots to the goalies right this season, as opposed to shooting almost exclusively from the goalie’s left last season. I don’t think this is a contributing factor in Matty’s lower production this season (it’s really just how he’s being deployed on the power play), but I did find it interesting so thought I would share.
After all that, I still did not reach a firm conclusion as to what is impacting Matty’s production this season. He is still very young at just 21 years old and has plenty of room to develop, so I am not overly concerned about his drop in production in this sophomore season.
Like many of his teammates, he started the season cold. For a while, he looked like he was returning to form before an injury took him out of the lineup for five games. He might also be feeling pressure with higher expectations being thrust upon him and knowing that he is up for a new contract this summer. It was one game, but he looked good on Saturday night, and although he did not get a point on the play, he contributed to the first goal in multiple ways.
Other Musings
- The Kraken have 52 points in 51 games. There have been 25 teams since the 2005-06 season that had 52 points at the 51-game mark, and only four of those 25 made the playoffs.
- Money Puck puts the Kraken’s odds of making the playoffs at 21.4 percent.
- I couldn’t remember the last time I’ve seen an unsuccessful offside coach’s challenge, so when Flyers coach John Tortorella contested Tomas Tatar’s goal on Saturday night, I mentally took the Kraken goal off the board. I was pleasantly surprised when Tortorella’s challenge failed. Scott Malone of ROOT Sports tweeted that it’s the first time an offside challenge has ever failed in a Kraken game.
- Andre Burakovsky had five of his shot attempts blocked on Saturday night. He leads the current Kraken forwards with 41 percent of his shot attempts being blocked. I honestly don’t how to interpret that stat, but I was frustrated with his shot selection that night, so I looked it up.
- When healthy, I think Burakovsky is an awesome player, but he looks nowhere close to what he showed at the beginning of last season. He has never had a season with a shooting percentage under 10 percent. His current shooting percentage this season is a paltry 3.6.
- Chris Driedger posted his third shutout of the season for the Coachella Valley Firebirds on Saturday. It is unlikely, but I wonder if a team would consider trading for him as a potential second or third goalie for a playoff run.
- I think Carson Rehkopf is becoming the Kraken’s top prospect and has potential to play in the NHL next season. He had three more goals this past weekend over two games and now has 40 on the season. Meanwhile, Jagger Firkus set a Moose Jaw Warriors record with points in 24 consecutive games.
Player performances
David Goyette (SDB) – The Kraken prospect had three goals and six assists in his last three games for the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL. He shares the top spot for points this season in the OHL.
Andrei Loshko (ROU) – A Kraken fourth-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had a hat trick and two assists for the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies in a 11-0 win on Thursday night.
Logan Morrison (CVF) – The undrafted free agent signing by the Seattle Kraken had two goals in the Coachella Valley Firebirds’ only game this week. Morrison is having a solid first pro season with 10 goals and 21 assists in 45 games with the Firebirds.
Chart of the Week
After last year’s second-in-the-league 11.6 team shooting percentage, we expected a bit of a regression for the Kraken in 2023-24… but maybe not quite like this:
Goal of the Week
Barrett Hall was a Seattle Kraken sixth-round selection in the 2022 NHL Draft and currently plays for the St. Cloud State Huskies (Piper Shaw and Will Borgen’s alma matter).
The week ahead
The Kraken battled back to put themselves in a position to compete for a playoff spot, but they are headed in the opposite direction compared to some of the teams competing for the same wild card positions. Calgary, Minnesota, St. Louis, Nashville, and Los Angeles are a collective 8-0-0 since the All-Star break.
The next three games for the Kraken pose a challenge. They face the Devils Monday, Islanders Tuesday, and the Bruins on Thursday. The Devils and Islanders are fighting for the playoffs and will be coming in desperate, while the Bruins are one of the top teams in the league. Points will be hard to come by in these games, but if the Kraken take anything under three points, we can all but write off a shot at the playoffs. This might be the do-or-die week for the Kraken.
As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any thoughts or questions, please let us know in the comments section.
Matty has not been the same since the Tyler Myers concussion. He seems timid and easily knocked off the puck now. But for the terrible optics, a year conditioning in the AHL would have suited him well, but hard to do when the guy wins the Calder. But maybe a Calder Cup would do more for him than the Calder trophy has?
Yes he seems to be very timid on the puck and looks like he’s playing afraid. Not sure if it’s coaching telling him to avoid battling or if he’s worried about future injury. It’s a tough situation not many players can be a great players in the NHL without putting yourself in tough positions at times. I’m hopeful he adds a little to his frame and regroups next year?
#Scratch.Burakovsky. Send a message, you can’t have players playing so poorly and staying in the lineup. Especially at the expense of hard working players, H is sending the wrong message to the team. It doesn’t matter how you play or what your stats are, all that matters is the size of your contract. It’s absolutely garbage, there can be no accountability on a team when the coach doesn’t demand accountability.
Burky’s biggest issue has been lack of confidence due to lack of ice time and fear of re-injury. Scratching him is the absolute worst thing you could do at this point. Like it or not but he needs to work through these issues on the ice, not from the press box.
Burky knows exactly what’s expected of him and I’m sure no one is as disappointed in his season as he is.
I completely disagree, he needs a shot in the arm. Having him sit and watch a game could be exactly what he needs. I have a very hard time believing that getting benched when he’s playing horrible hockey would set him back…. It wouldn’t just be a message to him also to the entire team. A coach has to hold players accountable.
A lot of speculative armchair psychology going on in both sides of this debate.
Maybe, point being you don’t scratch a player that is working hard every shift and who has more points per game and keep someone who is off their game in the lineup. It sends the wrong message to the team.
I agree with the observation that Beniers seemed different after he got that dirty hit from Chaos Giraffe (Meyers). I wonder if Burakovsky’s injuries have made him timid too?
The Kraken lack a legitimate enforcer and there have been times when teams try to bully the Kraken. When you have no enforcer and suck on the PP then what’s the deterrent? Maybe the teams poor performance this year is due to being scared stiff?
I mentioned this idea during “the skid”. I figured it would be way too unpopular to really come to fruition. However, I still agree that this would be a good place for him to get his chops back.
I can’t believe Torts made such a risky offside challenge. Isn’t he terrified of the Kraken’s power play? [does this website have a sarcasm font?]
I was thinking about tying in the outcome of the challenge on the power play but “Being tied for 8th in shorthanded goals against didn’t quite capture the moment.”
Lots of good info, just not good news. I totally agree about Burakovsky, stats aside, he just doesn’t look the same. Hard to know what’s up with Matty, is it possible he’s just not sneaking up on people like he was last year? The trade deadline will be interesting, lots of press about Eberle and Wennberg being trade targets. Time will tell…
PS, I did really enjoy that failed offside challenge.
This is the new Monday musings mantra. “Lots of good info, just not good news” 🙂
I’d just finished the Athletic article when “Monday Musings” popped up in my inbox. Great to read, especially right now. Makes me wonder what a line with Beniers and Zegras might look like?
That would be something.
Apparently Schultz is back from his unexplained absence and they are once again playing him and scratching Ryker Evans today in NJ. I cannot fathom why they are keeping Evans on the NHL roster just to scratch him in a key year in his development. I know they need a 7th defenseman but Cale Fleury was perfectly capable in this role. Perhaps they are on the verge of trading Schultz? Even so, they could have Fleury travel with the team to step in for a game or two when Schultz is moved, and then call up Evans later if they want to. Any way you slice it, Ryker needs to play!
I just don’t know what to make of this team. It’s seems pretty clear the offensive numbers put up last season involved a not inconsequential amount of “luck”. Consistent with that, the more I look at the underlying numbers, the more this team doesn’t look all that different than last season’s team.
This season; however, it seems like there have been two different teams. Just before the break, Hakstol talked about the “hole they’ve dug themselves out of over the past 23 games”. Over that window (now 24 games) the team has been around 14th in the league in both goals and xG/60 5v5. During the first 27 games, however, they were around 29th in both. Obviously, the goaltending has been huge, but the offense has actually improved, though in a somewhat “spotty” manner. Even after the last two very, very, very disappointing games, the team still is on a 102.5 point pace over the last 24.
It’s a small sample – just 24 games – but if this team is the team its been the last two month, not just the last nine games, there’s a lot to like here. Furthermore, it doesn’t feel like anyone – other than maybe Joey – is over-performing. In fact it feels like there are players with room to improve.
Maybe it’s the two big streaks skewing the numbers, but the biggest difference I see on the offensive side between last season’s 100 point team and the 102.5 point team of the past two months may just be luck. The xG/60 for both teams is almost exactly 2.57 and the current team is right on that number. Last season, the Kraken put up more than half a goal per 60 above expected, the biggest positive disparity in the league by far. This team and Hakstol’s Flyers are and were notoriously streaky….
So… this has been a long-winded rationalization. And the point I’m wanting to arrive at in support of the SOH mantra of optimism is:
This team IS good enough to make the playoffs, and another hot streak is just around the corner. This is what I’m clinging to between now and next weeks Monday Musings.
Go Kraken!!!
Having trouble mustering the same optimism but I love this post! Go Kraken!
John, found this tidbit on PHR:
“Like Eberle, Wennberg struggled on the scoresheet with eight goals and 21 points in 51 games. Unlike Eberle, he’s shooting above his career average and has some of the worst possession metrics on the Kraken – only Brandon Tanev has a worse Corsi share at even strength among full-time members. His expected -3.6 rating is the worst on the team, and he’s won less than 50% of his faceoffs for the 10th time in 10 NHL seasons. As such, he’s likely a complement to the Bruins’ and Avs’ cast of middle-six centers that lack punch, and not a significant upgrade. Even at a half-retained $2.25MM cap hit, his disappointing season might be too much to swallow and a third team may need to retain another 50% of his salary to facilitate a trade.”
As a Wennberg enthusiast, what say you? Faceoffs mean very little, and I’m guessing the possession metrics have to do with him being deployed in more defensive situations, but his inability to generate offense is a problem for anyone who thinks he’s more than a bottom six center, and I don’t think B6 centers usually fetch much on the trade market (especially for $2M+).
Boist so badly wanted to say “Wennberg apologist” but decided to be nice.
Public possession metrics are lacking a lot of context. They only rely on shot attempts while the player is on the ice but don’t have zone entries, passing stats, and actual puck possession. Not trying to crap on them since that is all that is available publicly and stating why they might show something that is inconsistent with how teams might value a player. RE faceoffs. I’ve come to grips with they don’t mean much but one challenge that exaggerates the Kraken’s disparity in faceoffs is that they only have left shot centers, therefore they have no righties to take the righty strong-side faceoffs (defensively to the right of the goaltender). Last I checked, Wennberg was who they would deploy on those tougher faceoffs. Next time they have a PK, check where the opposing team chooses their faceoff circle. It’s usually in the left dot of their offensive zone.
All that said, Wennberg is a good depth center that can play in all situations. That in my opinion is his biggest value. I would not have thought he would return anything more than a second-round draft pick but I think he has more value than Sean Monahan so we will see.
“Wennberg is another potential option for teams looking to strengthen themselves down the middle. Not known as a big point producer throughout his NHL career, the 29-year-old can play in all situations and be trusted on the defensive side of the puck.
As a bonus, Wennberg can be counted on in the faceoff dot and on the penalty kill.”
This is from Chris Johnston’s latest trade board on the Athletic. Previous versions did not have Wennberg listed, however, he entered today as No.12 on the list and is one of the few centers who may be available that has a positive defensive rating according to Dom Luszczyszyn.
I think you yourself in your post, and John in his reply, addressed a lot of the numbers and the Pro Hockey Rumors take feels like a misguided scrape of the data. No one with any sense would expect a team looking for scoring to be trading for Wennberg, but that doesn’t mean he is not a valuable asset. As John Cooper has said, “In the playoffs, it’s not about scoring goals, it’s about not allowing the other team to score goals” (paraphrase) In addition to playing heavy minutes, Wennberg plays the PK and led the league in net takeaways last season (takeaways minus giveaways), he’s two-to-one this season.
He’s not a No.2 center on a legit contender, but he IS what some teams are looking for going into the playoffs – a reliable center who is defensively responsible, can play the PK, heavy minutes if needed, and will add the depth that is needed to go deep. In a thin center market that seems to favor sellers, his “trade value” is very difficult to determine and what he may “usually fetch” may not mean much.
As a Wennberg enthusiasts, what I would say is… Josh Erickson at PHR is looking at the wrong numbers for the player Wennberg is and that some teams need for the playoffs.
Go Kraken!!!