Andre Burakovsky has missed more games due to injury than he has played for the Seattle Kraken. As of March 6, he has missed 80 games and played in 78 over these past two seasons.
Burakovsky came to the Kraken a year after winning his second Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2021-22. The winger signed a reasonable five-year deal worth $27.5 million the day free agency opened in 2022, saying at the time he appreciated how badly the Kraken seemed to want him. Upon his arrival, the Swede delivered right away, leading the team with 39 points through 49 games before suffering a season-ending groin injury on Feb. 7, 2023.
Upper, lower, and undisclosed injuries, oh my!
That groin injury eventually required surgery and caused Burakovsky to miss the remainder of the regular season and all of the playoffs in his first campaign with the Kraken. In his second season, some rust was expected, but the injury bug bit Burakovsky four more times (so far) in 2023-24.
- Oct. 21 – Upper-body injury – missed 20 games
- Dec. 7 – Upper-body injury – missed nine games
- Jan. 13 – Lower-body injury – missed four games
- Feb. 29 – Lower-body injury – missed two games
Since the 2019-20 season, he has missed games due to injury 12 times. To start the current season, the left winger looked out of place and only registered two assists before landing back on injured reserve after getting thrown into the end boards by New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba.
When he returned from that injury on Dec. 7, Burakovsky played only six minutes before slamming into the same end boards after a hit by New Jersey Devils defenseman Kevin Bahl.
You had to feel for the guy, as he dealt with injury after injury. It took him until the calendar turned to 2024 to register is first goal of the season, and then 19 more games for his second goal, the game-winner in a 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday.
All that said, for a $5.5-million AAV, more is expected than 10 points in 29 games, and the Kraken need Burakovsky to perform to be successful. Did his goal Tuesday finally break him out of the funk?
Playing statistics
As the injuries piled up, so did Burakovsky’s rotating mix of linemates. Coach Dave Hakstol moved him around the second, third, and fourth lines to see if he could find chemistry and spark his offense.
Digging into his playing statistics, there is reason for optimism that Burakovsky has found himself, despite the brief two-game hiatus before this week’s road trip. Burakovsky has a great shot, and with the exception of this season, has consistently out-scored his expected goals, according to MoneyPuck.
Focusing on his shooting statistics, there is an interesting trend that popped out. With only two goals on the year, you might assume that the two-time Stanley Cup champion might be shooting the puck less. In actuality, Burakovsky is shooting more than at any point in his career at 17.35 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Shot attempts include shots on goal, shots that are blocked, and shots that miss the net.
The number of Burakovsky’s shots that have been blocked is what pops off the page, with 7.35 of his shot attempts getting blocked per 60. This is almost double the average rate at which his shots have been blocked over his career (3.9).
Burakovsky leads the Kraken at 1.72 blocked shot attempts per game. Oliver Bjorkstrand is second in blocked shot attempts per game with 1.65, and Jared McCann is third with 1.34.
Eye test
From the eye test, Burakovsky likes to carry the puck into the zone. He is good at stickhandling in tight space and uses that to get out of difficult spots and make quick shots. What the statistics on blocked shot attempts point to is that defenses have figured this out and collapse on him, resulting in more blocked shots. Whilst playing for the Avalanche and Capitals, both of those teams had true star power in Alexander Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. This allowed Burakovsky to fly under the radar, with defenses focused elsewhere.
When Burakovsky jumped out to the team lead in scoring in his first season in Seattle, he may have signaled to opposing teams that they should focus on him more.
Settling in
When a player goes nearly eight months without game action, getting back into the swing of things can understandably take time. It is unfortunate that it has taken almost the whole season, but Burakovsky does finally seem to be back on track.
Hakstol has noticed and praised the forward recently and increased his ice time from 13-14 minutes per game on average to 15-17 minutes over his last eight outings. With this increased time, Burakovsky has gotten his second goal, a game-winner against the Jets, and he also has three assists during that stretch.
Meanwhile, his shot attempts have increased from 3.55 to 5.85 per game. Burakovsky’s improvement has been visually evident, and he has looked like the best Kraken forward at times. This all points to an improvement on his offensive production the rest of the season.
“It felt very good,” Burakovsky said about scoring Tuesday. “It’s been a battle with all the injuries and all the missed time, and I think I’ve been playing some really good hockey lately, creating a lot and skating a lot… It was nice to finally see one go in. I almost forgot what it feels like.”
Look for Burakovsky to continue this offensive push as he adjusts to the increased pressure on his shots getting blocked. Historically, he is simply too dangerous of an offensive player to sustain a paltry 4.5 shooting percentage. Regression to his career average of 13.9 percent is due.
I, too, like Burakovsky but unreliability has sidelined other careers before. Maybe more weight work will lengthen his career.
I would recommend normalizing shot blocks against shot attempts. Even doing that, his % blocked this year is still a career high 42% vs his previous season high 34% in 2016.
I feel like he has a tendency to over think and over handle the puck. He doesn’t strike me a a player with a high hockey IQ. Some games you see him move the puck well instead of stick handling himself into corners, those games are his better games. He needs to focus more on the team game. You had a great point that on the Avs there were a lot of distractions from talented offensive that opened up space for him, we don’t have that in Seattle. My guess regarding blocked shots is that possibly H and his SHOOT THE PUCK strategy isn’t working well with Burky.
The team is not without scoring talent that other teams know to respect. Jared McCann and Oliver Bjorkstrand command similar attention whenever they are in the offensive zone, which I think is why the two of them have been so productive when playing on a line together. Burakovsky would find more open ice if he were to play the left with those two guys. Other teams would have to leave one of them open. Isn’t that how a traditional “Scoring Line 2” is supposed to work?
The Kraken have never had “traditional” lines. The success last year was partly because we had 4 second lines. You are correct that McCann and Bjorkstrand have attracted similar attention, but those 2 average 16-17 minutes per game and Burakovsky is averaging 14 minutes for the season. Looking at the shots blocked per game will not account for the different in playing time, which is why I look at blocked shot attempts per 60. I did not share the same stat for the rest of the team, the gap between 1st, 2nd and 3rd widens quite a bit when normalized to 60 minutes:
1st – Burakovsky – 7.35
2nd – Bjorkstrand – 6.05
3rd -McCann – 4.86