Despite the loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Friday night, it was still a good week for the Kraken with back-to-back road wins against Calgary and Winnipeg. The team is still giving itself a long shot at making the playoffs, and that is all we can hope for at this point.
The challenge has been that Nashville just keeps accumulating points, Los Angeles seems to be coming out of its funk, and Vegas just loaded up at the trade deadline. It was already a tough hill to climb, but this hill is seriously daunting. As unlikely as the playoffs seem at this point, epic comebacks or fairy-tale-type endings must start when it looks like all is lost, so maybe we will witness something special.
Trade deadline thoughts
The trade deadline came and went with a bit of drama in Seattle, but no real surprises. I mentioned in last week’s column that we had probably seen Alexander Wennberg wearing a Kraken jersey for the last time. The team ended up scratching Wennberg for their Monday and Tuesday back-to-back games and ultimately traded him to the New York Rangers on Wednesday. The return was a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick. This was a fair return, but we had been hoping for a first-round selection after Sean Monahan brought a first-round return when Montreal traded him to Winnipeg in early February.
In retrospect, my assessment that he would warrant a first-round pick in return was evaluating what he meant to the Kraken, not so much what he would mean for a pursuing team. Wennberg led all forwards in time on ice and penalty-kill time for the Kraken. He also led the team in defensive-zone and short-handed face-offs. He would often be deployed against the opposing team’s best line to keep them in check.
Most teams pursuing a center at the trade deadline don’t need all those characteristics; they just need a few of them, hence lowering the expected return for Wennberg.
Eberle signs extension
The other bit of business around the trade deadline was the Eberle signing. This was largely expected by Sound Of Hockey, but we might not have expected the last-minute drama that implied he would be moved if a deal was not in place. The final contract was announced just hours before the trade deadline, giving us all a sigh of relief. The deal was for two years, carrying a $4.75 million average annual value. The AAV came in a bit higher than we expected but was likely inflated to avoid a third year in term.
Outside of the Wennberg trade and the Eberle signing, the Kraken had no other transactions during the trade deadline week. I was surprised that Justin Schultz wasn’t traded, with cup contenders looking to add some defensive depth, but as Darren Brown mentioned on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, the injury to Vince Dunn may have complicated matters a bit.
Other Musings
- The Jets shutout of Seattle on Friday night was the sixth time the Kraken have been shutout this season, which is the most they have been shutout in a single campaign (they were shut out five times in the inaugural season). Only the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks have been shutout more this season, and both have been shut out nine times.
- Jordan Eberle is scheduled to play in his 1000th NHL game on Tuesday night when the Kraken take on the Vegas Golden Knights. In addition to his 1000th game, he is also approaching several other milestone stat marks. He has 296 goals, 399 assists and 695 points.
- During Ron Francis’s media availability on Friday, he spoke about Eberle’s character and leadership in the locker room as a contributing factor in re-signing the veteran winger for two years. During the inaugural season, Eberle was often the player that would be willing to speak to the media after several disappointing losses.
- Eberle is probably responsible for minting more hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest than any other player with this goal. It still gives me chills.
- This is the first time in Kraken history that I recall the team having a team goalie save percentage above .900. Both Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer have been outstanding since the turn of the calendar year with a collective .929 save percentage in 2024.
- The Kraken have two more chances to get their first win on a Saturday night at home this season with the first opportunity this Saturday against Nashville. That’s a big game. I say they do it.
- Kraken prospect David Goyette became the first player to log 100 points in the OHL this season. Goyette has been a very consistent producer all season, and it will be fun to see what he can do at the next level.
Player performances
Ales Stezka (CVF/SEA) – The backup goalie for the Coachella Valley Firebirds had two wins in two days and posted a .958 save percentage. Stezka did not start the second game but had to jump in when Chris Driedger left the game feeling under the weather.
Ryan Winterton (CVF/SEA) – The Firebird winger has four goals in his last three games. He is tied with Shane Wright for fourth in rookie goal scoring in the AHL.
Colin Blackwell (CHI) – An old friend and original Kraken Expansion Draft pick, Colin Blackwell scored his first career hat trick for the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday.
Goal of the week
I love the breakdown of this goal.
Chart of the week
By now we realize one of the major challenges of this Kraken season is the lack of goal scoring, but it is also worth pointing out that they have reduced goals against.
The road ahead
After the first half of March, the Kraken schedule gets easier, and as long as they don’t fare too poorly against tough opponents during the first half of the month, they should at least make the stretch run interesting. With the help of some back-of-the-envelope math, I tried to forecast the wild card contenders’ final point projections.
I categorized all teams into three buckets, Playoff Bound, Bubble Teams, and out. I then figured each team’s points percentage against those categories of teams this season and assumed each team would stay on that points pace against each category of team for the remainder of the season.
Here are the results:
Of the teams listed, the Kraken have the easiest strength of schedule remaining, but the 89.2-point projection still doesn’t look encouraging for them. I also did not include the cluster of other teams that are currently tied with the Kraken in points.
There is no doubt that sneaking into the playoffs will be a huge challenge. Money Puck currently has the Kraken at an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. A first step will be grabbing four out of six points this week with home games against two Western Conference bubble teams in Vegas (Tuesday) and Nashville (Saturday).
I don’t want to pin the whole season on one or two games, but considering where the Kraken are in the standings, the situation is dire. Two regulation wins against teams they are competing with for the wild card would give their chances a significant boost. We also cannot overlook the Washington Capitals who visit Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday.
For the last three seasons, all I have really asked for is that the team plays meaningful games in March. This week could not have more meaning in the season, so buckle up.
Thank you for giving me an excuse to watch the Eberle OT goal for the 500th time.
I don’t get the Schultz thing at all. If Dunn is out for a while, then all the more reason to just sell Schultz as their playoff chances go from slim to microscopic regardless. It’s not like they can’t ice a team, they could finally call up Cale Fleury who has always acquitted himself well in the games he’s played. Contenders were supposedly desperate for right shot Ds. The only explanation is that everyone has concluded that Schultz is totally washed up so he had no market value. I didn’t think that was the case, but maybe that’s Kraken fan bias.
Speaking of Kraken fan bias, I love the elaborately euphemistic way you have of stating the truism, “Alex Wennberg just seemed more good/important on the Kraken because the rest of the team is so crappy as compared with a real contender.”
I wonder if and what the conversations were on Shultz as well. It would really depend on what was offered up. I.e. if there was a second on the table, I would have done it but if they were only offered a fourth, I probably don’t do it since at the time, they had a 30% shot at making the playoffs.
It seemed like there was a ton of right-shot defenceman on offer… and with Tanev only fetching a second… I think even a fourth might’ve been a stretch.
I’m thinking that we called up Fleury with the exception that we were trading him. Look at the value that Dumba and Taniv returned. The market probably just wasn’t there, we were probably looking at something lower than a 4th round pick.
Also, one little correction for the podcast — I think you said Vegas traded away Nick Suzuki to get Tatar from Montreal and then scratched him for most of the playoffs. Close but not quite. In fact, Vegas traded a slew of high picks to Detroit to get Tatar (and then scratched him for most of the playoffs, as you said). Then, after that season, they traded him away, WITH Nick Suzuki, to the Habs for Pacioretty.
I realized that after the fact….so thanks for shaming me publicly. 😐
Shame, shame, shame, shame….
Your point was still valid. And don’t be ashamed. I only remembered because I’m an ex-Habs fan.
One more small correction… in your paragraph about Eb’s 1000th game, you wrote 100, twice.
thanks. it’s fixed. We get some weird formatting issues with the small “th”, “st”, and “nd” after numbers. Somehow a 0 got deleted in editing.
Would love to read how management feels about this season. The Matty drop off; lack of young scorers; goalie inconsistency. It feels like expectations exceeded reality, which is probably typical of an expansion club. I just hope for more excitement next season.
I think reality exceeded expectations last season and management didn’t come into this season under the same illusions as many of us fans.
Matty is still a future legit No.1 center, young scorers are on the way, and the goaltending has never been more consistent – good or bad.
That’s just what I think they might say.
I still think trading one of our most consistent players, or at least for what they got in return, was a bad move. Now all we have is a hole. I could have understood Schultz for the picks but not Wenny.
I get the sense that Wenny didn’t really want to be here for a fourth season. Who knows?
Monday Musings!
I think the Kraken have been doing their part to push for a playoff spot. They’ve nabbed thirteen of a possible twenty points over their last ten with half of those games against teams at or near the top of their division… they went 4-1 in those games. They have missed a couple opportunities, but the biggest factor hasn’t been in Seattle, it’s been in Nashville.
Eighteen points in their last ten games is what has separated the Preds.
If you give teams one point for games in hand and Nashville bags a “season consistent” six-out-of-ten points… the Kraken are just two points back at seventy, and tied with the Wild.
…and if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
But my point is… I think the team and the management have been solid in a tough situation.
Obviously the goaltending has continued to be stellar. Hard to believe that’s now our greatest strength. Even though the scoring has been spotty, they’ve improved to almost three goals a game over the last ten and played at a +33 goal differential pace over that stretch. They’ve done better than six-out-of-ten points against a very tough ten game schedule. A stretch in which Pittsburgh was the lone team than now has less points than Seattle. On ice, they’ve been better than the team they probably are.
Now, as unlikely as a playoff spot may seem right now, what’s even less likely is some “mythical” deal that was going to land anything other than an even longer shot at distant success. They got a decent price for Wennberg, they kept Eberle on a decent contract, and there probably wasn’t anything else worth doing… even retention deals were only netting a fifth by deadline day.
With thirty-eight points still available, I’m looking forward to the next six weeks… and I’m confident the Kraken will do just fine at the draft with the nine picks they already have.
Go Kraken!!!