The last three games have gone as poorly as possible, and I am in no mood to relive them. The Seattle Kraken playoff odds were long a week ago and got exponentially longer with each of the three losses this week. MoneyPuck gives the Kraken just a two-percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but I think even that is generous at this point.
I am sure there is some mathematical combination of wins and losses across the two wild card teams and three teams sitting out of the playoff bubble that gives Seattle a two-percent shot at making it through, but it is not going to happen.
Season expectations
At the beginning of the season, if you would have told me the Kraken would finish out of the playoff picture with around 85 points in the standings, I would have thought that sounded about right. Last year’s unsustainable shooting percentage was unlikely to carry over at the same rate this season, especially with limited additions and the notable departures from last season. But truth be told, this is not how we expected this campaign to unfold. The team started ice cold with just three wins in their first 10 games of the season, and except for a brief period in November, the group was clawing to get into the playoff picture all season.
Injuries seemed to plague this team from the start. Brandon Tanev was hurt in Game 1 of the season against Vegas. Andre Burakovsky went down in the sixth game of the season and missed 20 of the next 21 games. Sprinkle in injuries to Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn, Justin Schultz, and even Philipp Grubauer, plus the illness that seemed to destroy the team for a stretch in January, and you start to feel this was not your typical hardship for a team.
Now, injuries are part of the game, and plenty of other teams overcome a similar quantity of injuries. But as much as we say this team’s strength is its depth, that depth only goes as far as about 20 players. Once you dip below those 20, things thin out quickly.
Where can we get some goal scoring?
It has been a theme all season, but the team has struggled to score. The Kraken are 28th in the league in scoring, averaging just 2.68 goals per game. I’ve heard a lot of people and pundits say the Kraken need a high-end goal scorer. Well, no kidding, but you don’t just go out and get a high-end goal scorer. They do not become available, and if they do, you are going to have to overpay and commit too many years to a contract.
I’ve said it before, and I will say it again. Spending on the high-end scorers that reach free agency is risky business. Sam Reinhart will score more than 50 goals this season and could hit free agency this offseason. Do you think Ron Francis should pursue a 28-year-old Reinhart for $10-plus million dollars a year for the next seven years when the forward’s previous high-water mark was 33 goals a season? I don’t.
The best chance at getting that goal scorer is to draft and develop or somehow convince another team to do something idiotic at the trade deadline. This is probably why I am most excited about what Carson Rehkopf could bring in the future. I have talked about him all season and generally think he could have the most potential in the franchise right now to become that high-end goal scorer. There is a long way to go to prove that out, but I am certain he will be given an opportunity to make the team next season.
Rehkopf will be 19 years old at the beginning of 2023-24, and based on the CHL development agreement, if he does not make the NHL roster, he will need to return to the OHL next season.
Notable bright spot
One bright spot for the Kraken this season has been their defense. I don’t necessarily mean the defenders themselves, but the team defensively as a whole has performed well. A good chunk of the defensive performance attribution needs to go the goalie tandem of Joey Daccord and Grubauer. At .925, the Kraken have the second-highest save percentage of any team since Dec. 1, behind only the tandem of Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit in Winnipeg.
I knew the goalies had been solid but did not expect them to be second in the league over that time span. It sure would be nice to see this trend continue next season.
Other Musings
- It is probably stating the obvious, but one player to keep an eye on down this stretch is Ryker Evans. He has been in the lineup since the Vince Dunn injury and will probably get more opportunity even after Dunn comes back. Evans is ahead of schedule in his development. He is one of eight defensemen in the NHL from the 2021 NHL Entry Draft but still needs time to grow and get used to the speed of the top league in the world.
- I do expect a few prospects from the Coachella Valley Firebirds to come up before this season is finished. Shane Wright and Ryan Winterton are the obvious players in question (though Wright is close to burning a year of his entry-level contract, so we don’t expect him until the last few games). I also wonder if Logan Morrison or Ville Ottavainen might get an opportunity down the stretch.
- The Firebirds are currently second in points across the AHL and are 8-0-1-1 over their last 10 games.
- Despite his struggles this season, I still think Andre Burakovsky could be the best pure goal scorer the Kraken have on the roster right now. But he obviously needs to stay healthy. Can he do that through next season?
- The Kraken overtime game against Vegas was Seattle’s 18th overtime game of the season, a franchise record. They had 17 overtime games last season and 12 in 2021-22.
- I never thought I would say this, but can we not have any Saturday home games next season? The Kraken are now 0-6-2 at Climate Pledge Arena on Saturdays. Lucky for us, the Kraken have only one more Saturday game this season.
- Face-off goals against reared its ugly head last week. It happened once against Vegas when Pavel Dorofeyev scored one second after a draw and a second time when Roman Josi scored three seconds after a face-off for the Predators’ third goal on Saturday. On both goals, the issue was not losing the face-off; it was that someone should have challenged the shots.
- Those face-off goals were the seventh and eighth time the Kraken have been scored on within five seconds of a face-off. That is second in the league behind the Tampa Bay Lightning who have allowed 10 face-off goals.
- Another ghost from seasons past that showed up this week was the response goal the Kraken allowed to Vegas. After Oliver Bjorkstrand put the Kraken up by two goals with 8:30 left in the third period, the Golden Knights scored less than a minute later to claw within one. Vegas really came to life after that goal, and the rest is sad, season-ending history.
- That was the eighth response goal the Kraken have allowed this season, which is about middle of the pack across the league. I don’t have the numbers, but I remember it being much more common in Season 1.
- The Kraken are one of four teams without a hat trick scored in a game this season. I would like to see one before the season is done. The only home hat trick in franchise history came against Buffalo in Season 1 when Eberle scored three goals against Buffalo. The Kraken play Buffalo Monday.
- I like seeing players’ first career goals, and I love it when they are at home. Ryker Evans has played 21 NHL games and has yet to score a goal.
Player performances
Kole Lind (CVF/SEA) – The Coachella Valley Firebirds winger has a six-game point streak with nine points. It would be nice to see him play some NHL games to close out the season.
Eduard Sale (KIT/SEA) – The Kitchener Ranger has 12 points in his last 10 games with five goals over that span. Sale has underperformed this season in relation to his draft position, so it is great to see him starting to hit his stride.
Jani Nyman (ILV/SEA) – The second-rounder from the 2022 NHL Draft had only one game this week, but he was able to net three power-play goals and 11 shots in Ilves’ regular season finale in Liiga. They are the second seed in the playoffs with their first game of the playoffs on Thursday against KalPa.
Goal of the week
We have started to get numb to all the goal scoring from Jagger Firkus, but this one was insane.
Chart of the week
Shane Wright is somewhat quietly having quite the rookie year in Coachella Valley.
What to watch for from here on out
After the loss to the Washington Capitals on Thursday night, I came to grips with the reality that these remaining Kraken games will not mean much in the playoff picture. My mind immediately started to wonder how I would watch the remaining games of the season. I am excited to watch and enjoy seeing Seattle win when it can, but with the playoff hopes out the window, I need some additional narratives to look out for.
The first thing I am excited about is to see the Kraken play the spoiler against Western Conference playoff bubble teams. They have four games remaining against these bubble teams, all road games. They play Vegas next week and will face Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Minnesota in April. The biggest game will be this coming Thursday where the Kraken will look to disrupt the Golden Knights’ playoff expectations. It won’t ease the pain we received from Vegas’ last-second heroics at Climate Pledge on Tuesday, but it might give us something to smile about for the evening.
Additionally, I am excited to see which prospects get the call-up and how they compete on the big stage. We saw Wright and Winterton log three games in November, but I have to imagine they are even more prepared now with several more months of AHL games under their belt. Are there any others that might get the call?
Programing note. There will be no Monday Musings next week. My weekend is packed, and with a Sunday-evening home game, it is unlikely I will be able to carve out the time needed to produce anything worth reading.
If you have any questions or want me to dig into certain topics for the following week, let me know in the comments, and I will do my best get back to you or add to my backlog of research.
Do you think it’s time to let Dave Hakstol go?
no chance. The team overachieved last season and has never really given up until the last game. I’ve talk to a lot of knowledgeable hockey folks (former players and coaches) that think Hakstol has shown that he is a really good coach. I know there are a lot of haters out there, but I don’t think I’ve seen a well-constructed argument for his dismissal.
I can think of one good argument for letting Hakstol go… Rod Brind’Amour becomes available. His contract is up at the end of the season and it’s always sounded like he wants to stay, but with Tom Dundon I feel like anything could happen.
–
I think it’s hard to know how much is the construction and how much is the coaching right now, but getting 14 playoff games out of a team that was mostly predicted to get swept twice… I don’t think that was all luck.
I couldn’t agree with djdw00 more. I think if Brind’Amour becomes available he is coming to Seattle. Although I also think he used the Seattle franchise as a way to leverage his last contract with Carolina.
The scouting on Shane Wright is that he is simply not a flashy player; solid but unspectacular. I think once Hak accepts this, Shane will see more minutes in Seattle.
The whole Shane Wright narrative is interesting. The consensus #1 pick going into the ’22 draft, inexplicably lasts until 4, and since then projections/expectations for his NHL impact have been downgraded. To be fair, COVID cost him a year, and given archaic (most likely illegal) CHL/NHL agreement effectively prohibiting the AHL as an option for pre-20 yo players basically cost him the 2022-23 season in terms of development. I would guess that part of his lackadaisical play last year could be attributed to his being jerked around non stop by hockey authorities. And if “solid but unspectacular” could translate into some iteration of a poor man’s Patrice Bergeron I think everyone would be thrilled.
On a bigger note though, the Kraken have spent their only two “high” draft picks on Beniers and Wright. If this team is to move out of the “hockey purgatory” they currently find themselves they’re going to have to take big risks (moving up in draft, big trades, FA signings etc.) to have any chance maintaining fan’s interest.
I had read that Fort Francis was conservative and I initially liked the team’s reliance on analytics but it hasn’t been translating all that well on the ice. It seems the NHL hasn’t changed all that much from when I used to watch it back in Buffalo in the early 80s. The front office better start making moves and churning this roster and developing a style more suited to rougher play and a shoot first mentality. The Kraken seem like passive players who are unable to mix it up unless provoked. It”s not working too well and needs to change.
Huh? Shane’s going to see top 2 line minutes next year. he needed this year in the AHL and we weren’t going to play him and burn a year. Hak has nothing to do with this
I agree they aren’t going to let Hak go before next season (if they come out with a listless/rough stretch mid season different story since that’s one of the only levers teams can pull).
That said, do we think GM RF is willing to shake the roster up? The knock on him to many in Carolina was he was too conservative. Personally I don’t think this market will accept a 8-10 year build job. I have a hard time believing we’ll see a much different result if we’re adding around the fringes of the roster next year (Schultz, Bellemare, probably Tatar, maybe Yamamoto are out, Tolvanen and Beniers are gonna get paid). Almost everyone on our team is on a M-NTC, NTC or NMC, and outside of Wright and Evans the top prospects are 2-3 years from competing (not all are gonna pan out and we don’t have great org depth at D).
The Francis narrative from ignorant Canes fans is stupid. Francis was hamstrung by ownership for the vast majority of his time there.
Where can we get some GD goal scoring!?!?
–
I absolutely agree with everything you said on this John. Even if we were just one player away, I don’t think that player is Sam Reinhardt. What it would take to get this prime Grade A regression candidate… no way.
But… there are options…
No.1 – Go all in on Zegras. I know this is a big risk and he may not actually be available – especially to Seattle – but he definitely has “high-end goal scorer” potential and with some actual team defense, maybe he isn’t the liability people fear.
Other than Rehkopf and Wright, I think every prospect along with any picks should be available for a deal, even this years first if it’s not top eight.
No.2 – Tyler Taffoli. At 32 it’s gonna be an overpay on dollars or term…or possibly both. He’s not a “high-end goal scorer”, but he’s a proven and consistent scorer. Since leaving the Kings he’s potted 34 goals per 82 games and has matched that in assists as well. Even with a little drop off, the Kraken should still expect 25 goals and 50+ points for the next couple seasons.
They have the cap and the assets for both of these moves. Zegras is probably a bit far-fetched, but I think Taffoli is someone they should absolutely target in free agency.
Go Kraken!!!
I do not like Taffoli as he is known to be a floater and has a poor 2 way game. This does not sit well under Haskol and Francis
Is this also why they let go of Sprong, which ended up being an awful idea? Two-way game is nice and all, but they need to put the puck in the net.
I would really welcome a Toffoli type signing and think that is the most likely type of add they really need to do this offseason. Not sure if that means Tatar would be out but I would also be welcome to him coming back as well but that can’t be all they do.
I am not dismissing Zegras but I just don’t think that is a smart trade based on what the Ducks will want for him. I would not give up a first for him but that’s just me.
I have been wondering for 2 years now, why Max McCormick is not being considered as a solid call-up. He leads the Firebirds in scoring and is a strong 2-way player as well who uses his body. I also think in 2 years, Seattle’s prospect ranking will rise.
Haskol is a good coach and stability for this young team is very important. They need to play a certain team style and changing coaches affects the whole franchise as far as style of play is concerned. With a veteran team, it works but not with a young and upcoming team.
I am still on the fence with Ron Francis. His not replacing the talent he lost in free agency does not sit well with me. Not moving more players before the trade deadline also ruffles my flaming feathers. As Optimistic as John Barr and Francis were, lacking the scoring was going to burn the Kraken, and his not seeing that was a poor decision.
That’s Kraken Hockey Baby.
Question: if a player gets called up and does not play, does that count against him on his eligibility?
McCormick is a 31 y/o former 6th round draft pick. He made his NHL debut 8 years ago and didn’t exactly set the world on fire. I don’t think there’s any untapped potential there. I like his game and I’d personally play him over Tanev, but I’m one of the very few “Tanev is bad” Kraken fan truthers in existence.
John, thanks as always. Sounds like we share a birthday — happy birthday to us!
hell yeah! Happy belated.
Maybe you guys have addressed this somewhere and I missed it — what do you think Tolvanen and Beniers will cost for 2024-2025?
Pure speculation that both will be bridge deals at around 3.5 to 4.5M. Tolvanen has arbitration rights and RF doesn’t like going to arbitration if he doesn’t have to.
Kraken fan from Israel. We have already allocated 65,500,000 for the next season. if we sign Beniers and Tolvanen it will eat another 8-9 mil. Not much left to spend. Not sure how they be able to improve the roster. Bring young players up – try to build for the future.