A week has gone by since our last update, and the Seattle Kraken have not maintained the point percentage they needed to stay in the wild card race. They are not mathematically eliminated yet, but according to MoneyPuck.com they have a 0.6-percent chance to make the playoffs at this point. The Kraken went 0-3-0, extending their losing streak to a depressing six games (0-5-1). They also gave valuable points to both wild card teams, Nashville and Vegas, in the process.
A devastating week for the Kraken
- Mar. 16 – 4-1 loss against the Nashville Predators. The Kraken looked outmatched in this game, but provided some hope by tying the game 1-1 in the third, only to surrender three straight goals.
- Mar. 18 – 6-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres. The night started off well with Jordan Eberle scoring on the first shot of the game. But Tage Thompson matched this feat, scoring on Buffalo’s first shot with a snipe under the bar. Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch add two more goals to put Buffalo ahead for good, all prior to the six-minute mark of the first period. That was enough for Joey Daccord to get the hook with one save on four shots. Ouch.
- Mar. 21 – 3-1 loss against the Vegas Golden Knights. The Kraken got outplayed in this game, but Philipp Grubauer stood on his head and kept the game close. It took late-game heroics by Vegas to eke out a win with former Seattle Thunderbirds forward, Keegan Kolesar, scoring the go-ahead goal with under two minutes remaining.
**Author’s note: Even though the Kraken suffered their sixth loss in a row, another Washington team won Thursday. The Washington State Cougars men’s basketball team is dancing and defeated Drake University 66-61 to advance to the round of 32. Go Cougs!!!
Wild card race
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings went 3-1-0 during the past week, including two shutouts. They beat Chicago twice and wild card hopeful Minnesota once but lost to the playoff-bound Dallas Stars. The Kings are on pace for 99 points, putting them almost certainly in the playoffs.
Nashville Predators
The Predators have extended their unbeaten streak, which is now at 16 games, going 3-0-0 during the past week. Watching the Kraken versus Nashville game made me realize that Nashville is a better team than I originally gave them credit for. With Juuse Saros between the pipes, Ryan McDonagh and Roman Josi locking down the blue line, and Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustuv Nyquist up front, give this team a chance to make some noise in the playoffs.
The Predators are on pace for 101 points and look like a lock for the first wild card spot.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are still struggling, going 1-2-0 during the past week (of course, the one win came against Seattle). The St. Louis Blues and the Minnesota Wild are nipping at the heels of Vegas and are only four and five points out of a wild card spot respectively. The pressure is on for the Golden Knights, who have games in hand but need to start winning if they hope to make it to the postseason. Vegas is on pace for 96 points.
Team categorizations
Teams in bold have a game remaining this season against the Kraken.
The week ahead
The Kraken have four games for the week of Mar. 22-28, all against Tanker teams, so an end to the current losing streak hopefully is close. Seattle has one more road game and will then come back for a four-game homestand.
- Mar. 22 – Arizona Coyotes – Away (Tanker)
- Mar. 24 – Montreal Canadiens – Home (Tanker)
- Mar. 26 – Anaheim Ducks – Home (Tanker) (Jared McCann Bobblehead night)
- Mar. 28 – Anaheim Ducks – Home (Tanker)
Kraken playoff hopes
While not officially eliminated from the postseason, the Kraken are trending towards 82-88 points, which gives them zero chance of making it through. The Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, and Minnesota Wild are all ahead of the Kraken in the standings. With Vegas trending towards 96 points, the Kraken would need four teams to falter, and they would need to basically win out.
With three losses this week, a dagger has been thrust into the Kraken’s playoff hopes. The 0.6-percent that MoneyPuck gives the Kraken is because they have the easiest schedule remaining in the NHL, with eight games remaining against Tanker teams.
What’s next for the Kraken?
With the Kraken out of the playoff picture, what is next for them? Could bringing up Shane Wright for some more NHL experience be in the cards? General manager Ron Francis has indicated Wright is in a good place in Coachella Valley, which leads us to believe he might remain with the Firebirds to fully contribute to the rest of the Firebirds season and playoff run. But bringing him up for a few games wouldn’t hurt.
There is also the issue that if they bring Wright up to the NHL, and he plays seven games (10 total on the season), the Kraken would burn a year on his entry-level contract. If he plays fewer games than that with the Kraken, his contract would slide, meaning Seattle would get to keep him for entry-level dollars for three more years.
The expectation for next season is that Wright will step into Alex Wennberg’s vacated second-line center role. But Sound Of Hockey‘s own Darren Brown and John Barr interviewed the humble 2022 fourth overall draft pick, and Wright believes he will step into a bottom-six role with the Kraken and have to earn a top-six spot through his play and building trust with the coaches.
Seattle currently is 25th in the NHL standings as of Mar. 21 with a six-point gap to the 26th team, the Montreal Canadiens. There is not much of a benefit to tanking at this point, because the difference between the eight overall pick and, say, the 12th overall pick is not a huge difference in talent. I would rather the Kraken focus on winning and building that mindset into the team’s culture.
Not a big difference between No. 8 and No. 12, but if they are the 8th worst team, they have a 6% shot at a generational talent (and similar odds to jump up to no. 2). If they finish 12th from last, they have zero shot. That’s a significant difference.
Moving up in the draft is a good pint, but there is no generation talent in the next draft. Moving up by winning the lottery is a possibility, but 2.5% or 6% to move up are such small odds. If they hit the lottery that would amazing, but I am not a fan of tanking for slightly better odds.
edit: pint should be point, but it’s Friday and am ready for a pint, so will leave.
Couldn’t disagree more on that last statement. The difference between 8th and 12th in this draft is huge.
As Foist pointed out there is the increased odds on the draft lottery. If you look the 8th overall picks vs the 12th overall picks for the past 20 years (2003-2022). The 12th overall picks have scored more goals, assists, points and played more games. This does not include this season stats.
pick – goals, assists, points, games played
8th – 994, 1865, 2859, 6202 (points per game = .46)
12th – 1015, 2258, 3278, 7905 (points per game = .41)
The 8th overall drafted 13 forwards and 7 defenseman
The 12th overall drafted 11 forwards and 9 defenseman
Even with the stats pointing to the the 12th is a better pick, I would prefer the 8th pick, but difference is not huge.
“in this draft”
Gotcha
Macklin Celebrini… No.1.
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Artyom Levshunov
Anton Silayev
Sam Dickinson
Carter Yakemchuk
Those are the four picks in this draft who are widely considered to have No.1 defensemen potential. The sort of player – along with a legit No.1 center – you have to have to be a contender, but they are also very hard to come by. I think it’s very rare for a draft to have this many “premiere” defensemen available.
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Ivan Demidov
Berkly Catton
Cayden Lindstrom
Cole Eiserman
Depending on who you read, these are the top forwards, besides Celibrini, in this year’s draft. To me none of these options is on the same level as the four defensemen, but there is, I think, something close to consensus around these four skaters being in a tier above all the rest.
– That’s nine. If you’re at No.8, it’s possible – though I think unlikely – one of those D-men falls to you. But even if that doesn’t happen, you still have a shot at a top-tier forward, or the one defensemen that your team has identified as being undervalued due to the strength of competition… like maybe Zeev Buium.
At No.12… all those players are gone and you’re just playing the odds – “for the past 20 years”. Maybe Trevor Connelly is still there and you think he’s worth the risk, but to me – in this draft – there’s way, way less upside potential outside the top nine. If you’re No.10 or lower, it’s probably whoever, but if you’re No.8, it could be someone to be excited about.
The hard work continues for the Kraken organization. You either work your way back to recapture the fun or fade into the background of the growing Seattle sports scene. I have faith in the front office to get it right in a few more years.
Question; do Kraken have quality players and poor coaches? Or not great players and good coaching? I see other teams making coaching changes and those teams have thrived. Do they just have better players? The chicken vs. egg debate is killing me.
That is not an easy question to answer quickly, but it is somewhere in between. Not all teams that change coaches thrive, NY Islanders for example are on a 6 game slide just as they got in a wild card spot. They still have a fighting chance, but it is slipping away from them.
Poor players? – The Kraken do not have poor players, but they don’t have superstars either. Their top 3 lines are like 2nd lines, which allows them to grind down opponents. As we have seen during the first 3 season though, if they don’t play the full 60 minutes they can be beat.
Poor Coach? – After the inaugural season, many pointed to Hakstol as the problem, but then in year 2, he came in 3rd in Coach of the year voting. I think he has proved his system worked. Could he better, everyone can improve, but I don’t think replacing him will cause any lasting improvements either. Francis also just extended Hakstol through 2025-26, so I doubt they are ready to part ways with him.
The think to look ahead to is the future is bright. The Kraken have done an excellent job drafting players and we have multiple prospects near the top of scoring for their respective league. They are still young, so don’t expect them to make the team next year, but the development process is working.
I expect Wright to make the team next year and expect current Kraken to take a step forward. Beniers, Tolvanen and Kartye should continue to develop. Burakovsky has struggled with injury this year, but his offense is starting to come back.
At the end of the day, you need trust Francis knows what he is doing and give the team time to develop. Training camp next year should be very exciting as many players will be pushing for a roster spot.
I don’t think H’s contract should or will have anything to do with whether he stays or goes. The lost revenue from an underperforming team more than covers the cost of his contract. I believe what it’s going to come down to is how motivated ownership is to winning and filling seats. This is the first year that season ticket holders can walk away if the picked the three year term, I don’t believe they will fill most of those seats that open up. It will put pressure on the coaches and GM to get the seats filled. Francis could easily be put in a position that he has to 🔥H or risk his own future. It will be very important for H and Francis to get the team rolling quickly next season. I’d expect to see Francis be a little bolder in the offseason and I kinda fear that because we haven’t seen many good FA signings.
Do we honestly believe that Ron will be able to identify FA talent? It is striking how bad his FA have been, especially compared to his trades/draft picks. Still need a bit more time on the draft picks but directionally way better than FA.
It would be interesting to have a tracker over the prior years but here is a quick run down:
– Burky: $5.5mm, 35 games, 12 pts, -8
– Schwartz: $5.5mm, 48 games, 24 pts, -12
– Yamamoto: $1.5mm, 55 games, 15 pts, -6
– Bellemare: $775k, 35 games, 6 pts, +3
– Dumoulin: $3.2mm, 66 games, 13 pts, +4
– Schultz: $3mm, 58 games, 20pts, -19
-Gru: $5.9mm, 28 games, 0.901 SV%, xGSA -2.9
That is a lot of aging players that can’t stay healthy and are all overpaid, with the exception of Dumoulin and maybe Schultz. When doing this for the prior two years, it is equally as poor.
Building through the draft will take several more years but fully expect this roster to have major turnover before being competitive.
The only more disappointing team this year is the New Jersey Devils, but their upside is way higher than this team as it stands today.
I thhink you might be taking Montreal a little lightly. Having Patrick Roy as their new coach is extra incentive for the team. The players and fans like Roy and asst. Burrows. The French Canadian culture is a strong motivation that we tend to over look.
I am not sure I follow… Roy is the coach for the Islanders. Martin St. Louis is the coach for Montreal.