Regardless of the playoff picture, I still enjoy watching the Kraken right now, especially when they win. The Kraken completed their California swing with wins against the Sharks and Ducks and a loss to the Kings in between. Sure, the victories were against two of the weaker teams in the league, but wins are wins, and you certainly wouldn’t want to see them lose to those teams, would you?
Shane Wright looks good
In my limited viewing of Coachella Valley Firebirds games and discussions I’ve had with people inside the Kraken, Shane Wright’s development has been very positive this season. The 20-year-old center has looked impressive since being called up on March 31, though I understand it has only been a few games. While I am excited about Shane, I remain cautious with prospects, knowing there’s an inherent bias in valuing something you possess. Nonetheless, we can appreciate what we’ve seen from him so far.
He scored a goal in his first game against the Sharks and added two against the Ducks on Friday night. However, his contributions extend beyond goal scoring. Wright plays sound defense, delivers quick, creative passes, and consistently positions himself well for scoring. He did make a few mistakes in his three games so far, but these should serve as learning opportunities.
When he was called up for three games in November, Wright appeared competent but cautious, often opting for the safe play to avoid errors. Although he wasn’t on a line with Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz that time, which might have altered his current role with the big club, he now exudes more confidence and poses a greater threat on the ice than before.
A proxy for development
When evaluating Shane Wright’s development, I often compare it to the development path of Quinton Byfield, the Los Angeles Kings’ centerman. Their paths are not identical, but Wright and Byfield share similarities. Byfield, drafted second overall in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, was an OHL player. Due to the pandemic, he was allowed to spend his draft-plus-one season in the AHL and began playing most of his games in the NHL from the 2021-22 season onwards. However, it wasn’t until this season, four years after his draft year, that Byfield began to hit his stride at the top level, just as pundits were speculating that he might be a bust.
Shane is currently in his draft-plus-two season and, by all indications, will become a regular in the NHL next year, his draft-plus-three season. If he follows Byfield’s trajectory, we might not see his full capabilities in the NHL until 2025-26. The broader point is that we still need to be patient. What we should look for is progress in his development, which we have undoubtedly observed since he joined the franchise.
Other Musings
Friday’s win against the Ducks was Seattle’s eighth regular-season win against Anaheim since the inception of the Kraken, the most wins they have posted against any one team. The Kraken have the chance to beat the Sharks for the eighth time on Thursday in Seattle.
- Logan Morrison and Ryan Winterton were scratched from games this week, a strategy often deployed when developing players to provide them with a different perspective of the game. This allows them to apply what they have learned from the handful of NHL games they’ve experienced at ice level and observe it from above. We would expect the duo to get another game or two at the NHL level before being sent back to Coachella Valley.
- I would not pencil Morrison or Winterton into the lineup next year. Both show promise, but I am not convinced they will be ready to be regular NHLers next season.
- Congratulations to Lleyton Roed on scoring his first professional goal on Sunday, just a week after signing his first professional hockey contract.
- After experiencing lots of challenges this season, Matty Beniers has been finding the net more often, with goals in four of his last six games. Below is his 10-game moving average of goals scored per game, which shows his scoring trend over 10 games at a time.
- The IIHF Women’s World Championship kicked off last week, and one of the marquee games of the opening round is Canada versus USA at 7 p.m. PT, airing Monday on the NHL Network. Check it out if you are so inclined.
- Speaking of international tournaments, it will be interesting to see how many Kraken players will participate in the men’s version of the IIHF World Championships in Czechia, which kick off in May. One player expected to represent Denmark is Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard. I’ve discussed him extensively this year, but this will be an opportunity to see how he fares against a number of NHL players.
- The Kansas City Mavericks, the Seattle Kraken’s ECHL affiliate, clinched the Brabham Cup over the weekend, an award given to the top team of the regular season. In full transparency, I had never heard of the Brabham Cup before.
- We alluded to it last week, and now it has been confirmed: Jani Nyman is joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
- The Everett Silvertips closed out their first-round series against the Vancouver Giants on Sunday. They will face the Portland Winterhawks in the second round, which kicks off on Friday in Portland. The Winterhawks won six of the eight regular-season games between the two teams.
Player performances
Niklas Kokko (PEL/SEA) – Since last Monday, the Kraken goalie prospect won a decisive Game 7 in the opening round of the Liiga playoffs and then won the first two games of the semifinal matchup against his former team, Karpat. He has a .925 save percentage in those two games.
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The Kraken’s second-round selection from the 2022 NHL Draft had nine points, including four goals, in the Sudbury Wolves’ first-round series win against the Mississauga Steelheads. The Wolves won the series in five games and will now face Ty Nelson and the North Bay Battalion in Round 2.
Shane Wright (SEA) – We’ve talked about him a lot lately, but he has four points in his three games with the Kraken since he was called up.
Goal of the week
The goal of the week comes from the semifinals of the SHL playoffs, Växjö Lakers vs Rögle BK.
The goal scorer above is Adam Tambellini, brother of Seattle Kraken Director of Player Development, Jeff Tambellini.
Honorable mention
Kole Lind had this beauty Sunday night.
Chart of the week
The analytics community has long understood that outhitting an opponent in a hockey game does not necessarily lead to more wins. The overarching idea is that if you’re outhitting an opponent, it likely means you don’t have the puck. Recently, I’ve noticed a broad group of media outlets highlighting hitting as if it were a key component of success on the ice. This has made me somewhat uneasy, so I decided to investigate how well the Kraken perform when outhitting opponents versus being outhit this season.
When the Kraken are “close” with their opponent in terms of the number of hits delivered, or they deliver at least four fewer hits than their opponent, their winning percentage is significantly higher.
The week ahead
The Kraken will play their last two home games this week, taking on the Coyotes on Tuesday and the Sharks on Thursday. Despite the challenges of the past six weeks, I’ll be sad to see the season end. I still love watching the team play, and if it weren’t for the unrealistic expectations created by last year’s team, I would have been content with this season. The Kraken are laying the groundwork to become a perennial playoff contender, rather than a team that gambles too early and risks having to rebuild. In short, while I would have been thrilled to see them in the playoffs, I appreciate the direction they’re heading.
I have a personal backlog of offseason analysis and investigation, but please let me know if there’s anything specific you’d like me to focus on as the season winds down.
Two off-season issue for me:
# How does the team acquire elite goaltending?
# How can the skaters learn not to pass up so many shots?
No.1 – How does the team acquire elite goaltending?
Over the past four months Joey has has appeared in 33 games and at five-on-five during that time he leads the league in save percentage, goals against and goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. Presumed Vezina Trophy winner Conor Hellebuyck is second: .943 vs .935, 1.64 vs 1.93, 0.82 vs 0.64. Between that and Grubauer’s contract, I don’t think they’re making any changes in net.
No.2 – How can the skaters learn not to pass up so many shots?
The Kraken are 15th (middle of the league) in shot attempts, but 28th (basement) in high-danger shots on net. I’m curious to read John’s “deep dive” into the offense, but for me it’s not about passing up too many shots, it’s about taking better shots.
I would not describe the goaltending as elite, but it has been pretty good this season. The Kraken are number 2 in the league in save percentage since Dec 1st and 8th overall for the entire season. To answer your question on goaltending, elite goalies tend to not move teams. so draft and pray because even the highest goalies drafted don’t always pan out.
Elite goalies are developed not bought. Seems like Grubauer (who people already argue is overpaid) is tending toward the end of his prime but Daccord is just entering. I think Kraken are sitting in a good spot. I hope Daccord ends up a career goalie for Kraken.
Do they track how much of the game a team possess the puck?
If they did, some sort of stat reflecting hits per minute the other teams in possession would be interesting.
I am really bummed about draft position with the Athletic reporting a drop off in talent around pick 8 or 9.
That being said, if we are going to be winning games because Shane is playing great I’ll take it. We sure could have used one of those apparently elite defensemen players that would likely have been available at 8, but bird in hand is good.
From what I’ve read and heard – the Athletic plus a whole lot more – there are eleven players that could be considered “a cut above”. I’d put them in three “baskets” rather than tiers.
Basket No.1 – Macklin Celebrini.
Basket No.2 – Six Defensemen.
Basket No.3 – Four Forwards.
Of the defensemen, I think the Kraken would do well with any one of them, but it’s possible they’re all gone before Seattle gets a chance. Of the forwards, there’s some great upside potential and I’d be happy with all but one of them.
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With the Penguins playing themselves into the east wildcard race, the Kraken are now pretty much guaranteed a chance at one of these players, and with them holding the tie-break over everyone in the chase… maybe two or three.
…also, of the three teams we’re “competing” with, Buffalo and New Jersey are already set with young defensemen and if Lindstrom is still there at No.5 I think there’s a decent chance the Canadiens take him. That leaves Calgary… they have four very winnable games left on their schedule.
Seattle may get a defenseman yet.
…and diving in even further…
Looking at their schedules and games in hand, it seems hard to see the Kraken catching Buffalo or New Jersey. As I mention though, I don’t think they’ll take a defenseman that low. But if we can’t catch Calgary and they end up at No.10, I think there’s a chance they take Tij Iginla there. If that happens, even at No.11 the Kraken might get a couple options.
Ideally, we “catch” Calgary and then we are set… but if not, I could see the Kraken having to take Catton. Nice player, but I think the Kraken need to take a top-ten defenseman or some size… they don’t need another Jagger Firkus.
Looks like I spoke too soon.
I didn’t think the Kraken could catch Buffalo and New Jersey… but last night upended everything!
The Kraken lose their one remaining “sure thing” and both the Sabers and Devils win!
Tonight the Flames also picked up another win and have drawn just two point ahead of Seattle in the push for top draft positioning.
With four games to go…
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The Kraken are on the road Saturday for a day game against a Stars team pushing for home ice and the President’s Trophy… pencil in a loss.
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They follow with and even earlier day game back-to-back against a Blues team playing it’s final home game… that’s another loss.
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Tuesday they play their third game in four days against a Winnipeg team coming off two days rest and fighting for home ice… that’s three.
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Finally, they play in Minnesota for the Wild’s season finale at home – the Kraken are 0-2 against them this season and have been outscored 8-2 including a shutout. Four.
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Seattle has the tie break over all three teams. If they can lose out – which seems entirely within reach – all they need is Calgary to pick up one win… they still have Arizona and they close out the season at home against… the Sharks!
No.8 is looking like a real possibility. Heck, it’s a long shot, but if Seattle drops all four – moves past Calgary – and the Sens can win their last three… the Kraken would jump up to seven!
…AND, they could also catch the Yotes. Kraken lose out and Arizona wins it’s last two – one against Calgary and the end all finale at Mullet against an Oilers team they beat tonight and that may be resting players – and Seattle finishes ahead of them.
“I would not pencil Morrison or Winterton into the lineup next year. Both show promise, but I am not convinced they will be ready to be regular NHLers next season.”
That is a little discouraging, if these kinds of players, who have done well in the AHL, are not NHL ready. If they succeed at the AHL level, what else are they supposed to do to earn a promotion?
“Jani Nyman is joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds.”
I don’t see any AHL announcement, so is this for this season or next? If this season, he will join a crowded group of forwards when Wright, Morrision, and Winterton head back down.
Any thoughts on how Dragicevic did in his first game?
Both Morrison and Winterton are ahead of schedule but they *could* use more time to develop in the AHL. I think it is as simple as looking at Shane Wright compared to those two guys. IMHO Wright is significantly better than those two guys at this point.
RE Nyman, it was for this season and the Firebirds just announced it on their social channels.
Since the 100+ shot attempt loss to the Sharks Darren has gone dark and stopped posting on the Kraken… I hope he’s okay.
Personally, I’m excited about everything going on. The Kraken aren’t needlessly winning games that don’t mean anything. It’s becoming more and more clear that Vince Dunn is important AND the “system” is poor and outdated. And after Calgary picked up another win tonight, Seattle is marching to No.8 or better in the draft. THAT IS HUGE!!! Believe it or not, we could still actually catch Ottawa.
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Darren… turn the page and start getting excited about the off-season and next season.
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Can’t wait for tomorrow’s Monday Musings…
John, don’t let me down!
Go Easy Kraken!!!