With “Prospect Week” still in full swing here at Sound Of Hockey, welcome to our Sound Table discussion focused on the status of the current prospect pool of the Seattle Kraken. With three drafts worth of prospects plus a host of free-agent signings now in the fold for the organization, we are going to delve into the strengths, challenges, and potential of the team’s prospects. If you have thoughts or opinions on any of the discussion topics, don’t hesitate to share them with us in the comments section.
Were there any surprises in the content we published over the week?
Curtis Isacke: I’ll take this one first and note what, in my view, likely came as the biggest surprise to the reader, Jani Nyman’s placement in my ranking of Seattle Kraken prospects based on league-adjusted scoring data. It didn’t necessarily shock me because I had been tracking his season in Liiga closely, but until the final postseason calculations, I didn’t know he would beat out Shane Wright’s strong AHL season for the No. 1 position in the Seattle system.
There are still development hurdles ahead for Nyman relating to his skating technique and overall mobility, but he is a player we simply cannot sleep on. His performance suggests he could emerge as a scoring wing in the NHL within the next few years.
John, I’ll leave the soup dumplings for you.
John Barr: Surprise might not be the right term, but it was interesting to see Ty Nelson not mentioned among the top prospects. I felt like the only one applying the brakes a bit on him heading into the season, even though there was considerable hype around him. The defenseman had another strong year, but a mid-season injury appeared to impact his production upon returning to the lineup. I still have a positive view of Ty, but like many prospects, making it to the NHL remains a long shot. Development rarely follows a straight line.
Darren Brown: This is also not really a “surprise” to me, and I’m sure this prospect will come up later in this conversation, but it’s disappointing to see Eduard Sale in position No. 13 on Curtis’s data-driven prospect ranking. There were compete-related concerns voiced about Sale when Seattle selected him No. 20 overall last summer, but I hoped the Kraken scouting department knew something about him that we did not.
Things haven’t been trending in the right direction for him so far, but he’s still only 19 years old, and as you just said, John, development paths are different for every player. Here’s hoping Sale has a great offseason of training and comes into training camp with a chip on his shoulder.
By the way, for those wondering about the “soup dumplings” comment from Curtis, we have an arena/stadium food draft podcast episode coming to our Patreon subscribers, which will explain that. Good joke, Curtis.
What prospect surprised you the most over the 2023-24 season?
John: I can’t imagine I am alone here, but Tyson Jugnath’s midseason move from NCAA hockey to the Portland Winterhawks really surprised me. Within a week of signing with the Winterhawks, he went from someone I had no clue about regarding his potential to suddenly becoming a prospect of interest. He had two points with Wisconsin over 13 games and had 13 points in his first 13 games with Portland.
It is nothing against any college players, but I find following the college game from the West Coast very challenging. The leagues are so fragmented, and there just aren’t enough college prospects to justify a TV subscription compared to the CHL and AHL subscription packages. I ended up watching several of Jugnauth’s games for Portland, and he looks really good. I am not saying he is a guaranteed hit, just someone we should certainly not forget about as we see these players develop.
Curtis: Jugnauth is a good one, John. His offensive play after he moved to the WHL looked like he hadn’t missed a developmental step with his offensive game despite being stuck in a depth, defense-first role at the University of Wisconsin for almost two years.
To throw another name out there, I’ll mention another blueliner: Ville Ottavainen. The Kraken drafted Ottavainen back in 2021, and he spent his next two years putting up low-end scoring numbers in the Finnish professional ranks. Combined with his 6-foot-5 hulking frame, I figured we were looking at a slower, stay-at-home defender with long odds to break through.
But, for me at least, he has been a revelation since joining the Firebirds this season. He’s a strong skater for his size and is readily willing to jump into the rush when the play calls for it. In this way, he reminds me a bit of a poor man’s Jamie Oleksiak. There are many parts of his game he’ll still need to smooth out to get to that point, but I’m very interested to see whether he can continue to progress in the years ahead.
Darren: Good one, Curtis. I know the organization really likes Ottavainen, too, even though he has largely flown under the radar. I’ve also been highly impressed with David Goyette, so he’s my honorable mention here, but I’m going to use my time in this section to talk about goalie Niklas Kokko.
I recall some grousing about Seattle using one of its second-round picks in 2022 on a goaltender that could have theoretically been grabbed in a later round. But Kokko is looking like he could pan out and had a phenomenal second half of the season in Liiga after getting loaned from Kärpät to Pelicans.
In 13 regular-season games with Pelicans, Kokko pitched a 1.49 goals-against average and .926 save percentage, then carried the team all the way to the Liiga finals where they finally lost to Tappara in five games. Along the way, Kokko became a star in Finland with a 1.81 goals-against average and .925 save percentage in 17 playoff games before moving to Coachella Valley.
I remember thinking Kokko appeared to have raw talent when watching him in Kraken Development Camp. He made the saves but seemed to swim around the crease and look a little out of control at times. I’m excited to see how he has improved, assuming he comes back to Seattle this summer.
This might be similar to the previous question, but in your opinion, which Seattle Kraken prospect’s stock rose the most over the season?
Curtis: Jugnauth and Ottavainen both come to mind certainly, but, in the interest of discussion, I’ll throw out another name: Logan Morrison. I was impressed that he was able to immediately grab a regular lineup spot—not to mention a top-unit power-play role—on a talented Coachella Valley team as an undrafted free agent.
His statistics may not immediately jump off the page, but his production in the AHL at his age makes him a borderline top-100 prospect in hockey. And, perhaps even more impressively, his data profile was fifth-best among NHL-affiliated undrafted free agents in my study.
Morrison has defied the odds to this point. If he’s going to keep doing it, he needs to keep working on his skating game. He has shown the resilience to do it, and it seems there may be no better place to develop this aspect of a player’s game than in Coachella Valley with Jess Campbell and the rest of the Firebirds’ skills staff.
John: Since we’ve already discussed Jugnauth, I’d like to highlight Oscar Fisker Mølgaard’s impressive season playing for HV71 in the Swedish league. Mølgaard was selected in the second round of the 2023 NHL Draft, but I believe he exceeded even those elevated expectations for a second-rounder.
While his numbers might not leap off the screen, it’s important to note that the Swedish league tends to be low-scoring. Having watched many HV71 games this season, I’ve observed that Mølgaard is comfortable and dependable as a two-way center—a positive sign for an 18-year-old competing in one of the world’s top men’s leagues. Initially, he averaged under 12 minutes per game in his first 15 games, but in the last 15 games of the season, his average playing time increased to over 17 minutes per game.
I do have a personal bias for Mølgaard after he gave a stellar interview with us back at prospect camp last summer.
Darren: Speaking of personal biases because of stellar SOH Podcast interviews, how about some love for Carson Rehkopf? We were already high on him before the season, but all he did was score during 2023-24 for the Kitchener Rangers and set multiple career highs in the OHL. He jumped from 59 points in 68 games in 2022-23 as a 17-year-old to 95 points in 60 games as an 18-year-old and was within spitting distance of a goal-per-game pace. Despite being picked No. 50 overall in 2023, he has quickly jumped into blue chip territory for the Kraken. The future is very bright for this kid, and it seems Seattle may have found a diamond in the rough here.
Which Seattle Kraken prospect’s stock dropped the most over the season?
John: Darren alluded to it earlier, and this one is fairly obvious. However, Eduard Sale’s season fell short of the expectations for a first-round selection. While his production was acceptable, it didn’t quite reach the level you’d hope to see from a top pick. When I watched him play, he didn’t stand out as much as most NHL prospects in the CHL. Some of this lackluster performance might be attributed to his first season in North America and on North American ice. I’m not ready to label him a bust when he’s still so young, but it’s challenging not to feel disappointed based on what we’ve observed so far.
Curtis: You’re right, John, Sale certainly stands out as the most notable case. But I’ll also flag Lukas Dragicevic as a player who bears watching. After an elite scoring season as a draft-eligible WHL defenseman that made him a top draft prospect, his offensive production took a significant step back this past season. In my viewings, his defense remains very much a work in progress too. On the plus side, he’s still young and has another junior season ahead before he’ll need to be able to compete professionally. So, there is a runway left, and hopefully he can take some of the lessons learned during his late-season stint with Coachella Valley forward into next season.
Darren: I’m with John on this one. There’s plenty of runway for Sale too, so here’s hoping he lights up the OHL next season and gets his development on track. Remember, there were people out there saying Shane Wright was a bust at some point in the not-so-distant past, and he has since regained his form as Seattle’s top prospect.
Is there a particular prospect that you are rooting for?
Curtis: Since I don’t think “all of them” is an acceptable answer, I’ll mention Tucker Robertson. He’s an undersized player who won in the junior ranks with his hockey sense. He’s a highly intelligent player and brings a hard-nosed mentality to go to the front of the net when the play calls for it. His leadership was no small part of his OHL club reaching the Memorial Cup in 2023.
It’s been an uphill grind for him since turning pro this year. He just doesn’t have prototypical size or standout skating skill. He had stints in the ECHL and managed minimal production when he got into the lineup for the Firebirds in a depth role. I’m rooting for him to emerge as a lineup regular in Coachella Valley next season and to start showing off that hockey sense that has gotten him so far already.
John: Andrei Loshko might be flying under the radar, but I’m rooting for him. As a fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft, he’s quietly had an impressive year in the QMJHL, tallying 67 points in 64 games and 11 points in 10 playoff games. Loshko is a strong two-way forward who takes great pride in his defensive play. When you consider his point production this year, you can start to see a potential path to the NHL. It’s worth noting that fourth-round picks face long odds—approximately 60 percent of players drafted in that round never play an NHL game. Still, I’m hopeful to see Loshko succeed.
Darren: Mølgaard and Nelson are both very likable and easy to root for, so they jumped to my mind, but I’ll go with new friend of the pod, David Goyette here. He really opened my eyes in Kraken pre-season by looking like he belonged out there with NHL players. He’s a smooth skater with hands, jam to his game, and some obvious scoring instincts after he piled up 117 points in 68 games for the Sudbury Wolves this season. Goyette could be the real deal, and he too comes across as a very nice, humble young man.
As we close out this Sound Table, I just want to say I think the future is bright for this organization. I don’t expect all these kids to make the NHL, but the fact that Seattle has a whole bunch of darts to throw is exciting, and there are several players that look like they could grow into impactful players one day. Heck, in 2300 words about the Kraken prospect pool, none of us even mentioned Ryker Evans, who is probably a lock to make the Kraken next season, Ryan Winterton, who already made his NHL debut, or Jagger Firkus, who led the WHL in scoring in both the regular season and playoffs and helped the Moose Jaw Warriors to their first ever WHL title.
Maybe it’s his size but I believe circus Furkus deserves a shot to make the 2024-25 squad: more capital for UFA’s.
I know this is off topic… but reading today that Carolina may be willing to deal away the rights to RFA Martin Nečas. The man who drafted him should absolutely be in on this.
Since Elliotte mentioned the possibility of a CAR-Necas split on 32T this AM, I’ve spent more time than I’d care to admit thinking about this possibility. I like the player and don’t necessarily think the cost to acquire him would be prohibitive. My concern comes in when adding in the necessary contract to the acquisition cost. If he’s looking for a 7-8 yr, $8.75 m AAV (or more), I don’t think I see it. Someone is probably willing to pay that (it’s what Evolving Hockey projects), but I don’t think it should be the Kraken. Even with the cap going up. If Ehlers is available and could be had on an extension for less or Marner could be had on an extension in $10-12 m AAV area, I think I’d prefer those options. All of that said if the trade return or contract demands are lower than I’m assuming, I definitely wouldn’t rule it out. The connection is certainly there.
PHR reported him as not eligible for an 8 year with another team due to him being on the reserve list at the trade deadline; however, they also indicate a “sign-and-trade” at $7.5 x 8 as the most likely outcome according to Evolving Hockey.
I think if Seattle could somehow work Kotkaniemi into the deal, the acquisition costs could be greatly reduced. He’s still eligible for a 1/3 buyout for two more seasons.
Please no. Kotkaniemi is terrible, and overpaid.
I am not a name caller but on the overall size of the Kraken, I think they need to make some moves to bulk up. Losing Geekie and Soucy this year was not good at all. I am concerned about size for the prospects. You can have all the talent but can you deal with the rest off the leagues playoff teams size. We do want to win a cup right. Having light weight flashy players can sell tickets but it does not transcend into championships. The on guy you size is panned by the panel. Big players take longer to develope their speed and skills. Firkus is talented but he is no Barkov.
Uh, here are the height/weight of the top Kraken prospects from Elite Prospects:
Wright 6-0 200
Nyman 6-4 207
Rehkopf 6-2 194
Goyette 5-11 174
Winterton 6-2 190
Evans 6-0 192
Firkus 5-11 160
And these guys all probably have more filling out to do (although I’m guess Wright is about where he’ll end up at).
Other than Firkus, what’s the problem with the size of those prospects? Who are the “lightweight flashy players”?
It would be pretty bad organizational development to limit yourself to only players of a certain size. Looks like Francis has done a decent job of trying to draft a range of talent.
As for Geekie and Soucy:
Geekie is 6-3 200. So, it’s not like he’s a giant compared to these.
Soucy is listed at 6-5 208 but I’m not sure I see the obsession with Soucy; he had a very “meh” year with Vancouver this past season.
Question for the prospect experts here: how good is NHLe at evaluating defensemen? If it’s a purely statistical evaluation, it seems like there would be an automatic anti-defenseman bias, since they often score less. And sure, you could normalize it by just lowering the bar, but there are a ton of D-men in the NHL who don’t score a ton of points, and probably never did, but are very useful/good players. I suppose this could be true with forwards as well, but I doubt there are that many forwards in the NHL who were barely scoring in juniors or the AHL. There are only 5 D-men in the top 50 list. Is this normal? Or maybe there just happens to be a dearth of top D-men prospects at the moment?
A lot of good questions in here. I’ll try to address two of the issues you raised as best I can.
(1) How good is scoring data in predicting the eventual success of defensemen? It turns out much better than one might suspect. Offense is the hardest part of the game to develop later. If you don’t show it early, often times you just don’t have it. A lot of defenseman flame out in juniors or the minors because they can’t bring any offense. On the other hand, it is relatively more frequent that really good offensive defensemen at the lower levels can get competent enough defensively in their 20s and succeed at the upper levels. Draft studies have shown that once you account for height, age, and scoring stats there is very little left that is predicative of future NHL success (whether measured by playing time, points, RAPM/WAR, etc.)
(2) Defensemen certainly score less on average, so forwards will look better in any stack ranking based on scoring data. So I think it’s fair to ask how do you do a stack that includes both positions. The safest thing to do is to look at the groups distinctly, of course.
If you’re trying to do one list, one approach could be normalize these prospect performances to their respective position averages at the NHL level–in other words give all defensemen a significant bump up. But, of course, scoring is the whole point of the game. Is a 40 point defenseman really as valuable as a 75 point forward? Or by virtue of their position are they simply less important? RAPM/WAR models tend to indicate defenseman are simply less important. I didn’t try to answer that question really, but I did want to recognize a 40 point defenseman is better offensively than a 40 point forward. So, I “middled it” by giving defenseman a conservative bump that was short of fully normalizing to the relative position averages.
Quite a few of the forwards prospects likely to break out in the NHL. But I am thinking more of where are we at with the defenders, which ones are likely NHLers?
Evans off that list, as he clearly should make the Kraken roster next season, with Schultz leaving. There will still need another D with Megna leaving, so will they go with Ottavainen this season as a 7D and let him work his way into the lineup over time, like they did for Borgen?
The Kraken must draft a D with the 1R 8th pick (and probably one of the 2R picks too). For guys under 30, that leaves Dunn, Borgen, Evans, and hopefully Ottavainen next season and 1R pick say the season after. Still a few spots open for D prospects. Who is most likely out of the current draftees: Nelson, Jugnauth, Dragicevic, Price, or Hammell (or none of the above)?
I note that the two prospects called out in this article, Sale and Dragicevic, are the only two of the 2005 draftees who were not sent home by the Firebirds after brief stints there this playoff season and both remain on the team’s roster now.
After watching Jani Nyman in last night’s final game against Ontario Reign, I’m not surprised he ranked higher than Wright. What a great prospect!!