With four teams remaining, the conference finals are upon us. In the second round, we saw some great hockey with three series going to six games and one going to seven. For full transparency, I did not do well at predicting the outcomes in my series previews for Round 2, picking just one correct winner out of four. Oops! The Edmonton Oilers were the only correct pick, but I had called out that the remaining series had no clear-cut favorites.
Now, we will preview the two conference finals series, give an update on the Sound Of Hockey Patreon Bracket Challenge, and provide some additional Stanley Cup predictions from the Sound Of Hockey crew.
Onto the conference finals! We have the Dallas Stars taking on the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference, and the New York Rangers taking on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference.
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
Season series
- Nov. 2 – Dallas won 4-3
- Feb. 17 – Edmonton won 4-3 in overtime
- Apr. 3 – Dallas won 5-0
The Dallas Stars won the season series 2-1 with the most recent victory being a 5-0 shellacking. The Oilers only win against the Stars was in overtime, and three-on-three (where the high-flying Oilers theoretically have an advantage) no longer exists in the playoffs.
Road to the Western Conference finals
The Dallas Stars finished the regular season with 113 points, good for best in the West and one point behind the Presidents’ Trophy winners, the New York Rangers. Dallas has beaten out the last two Stanley Cup champions in the first two rounds, knocking off the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 1 and the Colorado Avalanche in Round 2.
After an abysmal start to the Edmonton Oilers season, a change was made that brought in Kris Knoblauch to take over the head coaching job. Since his hiring on Nov. 12, the Oilers have been the best team in the NHL, matching their captain’s jersey number with 97 points.
The Oilers made quick work of the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1, winning the best-of-7 series in five games. The only game Edmonton lost in that series came in overtime. The second round brought more of a challenge in the Vancouver Canucks, who pushed the series to its seven-game limit. Even so, it felt like it was just a matter of time before the Oilers would prevail, being that they heavily outshot the Canucks 203 to 149 in the series.
How they match up
Edmonton and Dallas are very close in goals scored, goals against, and power play percentage. The biggest gap is in the penalty kill percentage, where Edmonton was 15th overall during the regular season, and Dallas was eighth.
| Dallas Stars | Edmonton Oilers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 294 (3rd) | 292 (4th) |
| Goals against | 232 (8th) | 236 (10th) |
| Power play percentage | 24.2% (6th) | 26.3% (4th) |
| Penalty kill percentage | 82.0% (8th) | 79.5% (15th) |
Dallas will focus on improving special teams play
In the postseason, the gap in penalty kill percentage has flipped and widened, with the Oilers’ penalty killing percentage now a league best at 91.4 percent. Dallas has struggled in this department with a 69.2-percent kill rate.
This statistic is slightly misleading, as Dallas has been the least penalized team remaining in the playoffs with only 5:13 of penalty minutes (PIM’s) per game. The next closest team is the Rangers, who have almost double what Dallas has at 10:12 PIM’s per game. Special teams will be important in this series, though, and Dallas will need to regain its regular-season form on the PK to slow down Edmonton’s lethal power play that has hummed along at 37.5 percent in the playoffs.
Edmonton goaltending
Edmonton is averaging 2.75 goals against per game, which is highest for the remaining teams. The Oilers have not been confident in the play of Stuart Skinner and even gave the nod to former Seattle Thunderbird goaltender, Calvin Pickard, for Games 4 and 5 against Vancouver. Skinner has since reclaimed the net, winning Games 6 and 7.
For Edmonton to advance, this needs to be Skinner’s crease going forward. Even though the 2.75 GAA is high, it is actually lower than Edmonton’s regular-season total of 2.88. Edmonton lives and dies by the success of its offense.
Prediction
Even with Edmonton’s high-powered offense, Dallas just eclipsed the Oilers with 294 goals in the regular season, good for third in the NHL (Edmonton was fourth at 292). Dallas has played harder competition in the first two rounds, and with its disciplined play and incredible depth, I believe the Stars will limit Edmonton’s special teams impact.
Prediction: Dallas in 6 games
New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers
Season series
- Dec. 29 – Florida won 4-3
- Mar. 4 – Florida won 4-2
- Mar. 23 – New York won 4-3 in a shootout
The New York Rangers lost the season series to Florida 1-2-0. There are only three teams the Rangers lost to twice during the regular season, and Florida is one of those teams; the other two are the Washington Capitals and the Columbus Blue Jackets. New York surrendered points in all three games to Florida, who’s lone win came via a shootout, which again will not apply in the playoffs.
How they match up
| New York Rangers | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation wins | 43 | 42 |
| Goal differential | +53 (7th) | +68 (1st) |
| Goals-against average | 2.76 (7th) | 2.42 (1st tied) |
Road to the conference finals
The Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy for having the best record in the regular season with 114 points. They were the only team to sweep their first-round matchup against the Washington Capitals and looked poised to sweep the Carolina Hurricanes after going up 3-0 in Round 2, but then lost Games 4 and 5 before winning the series in six games. The Hurricanes almost pushed the series to seven games, entering the third period in Game 6 with a 3-1 lead, but Chris Kreider scored a natural hat trick in under nine minutes to put the Rangers ahead for good.
The Florida Panthers are making a return appearance to the conference finals. After surprising last year as the second wild-card team, they come in this year as the No. 1 seed from the Atlantic Division and have surprised nobody by reaching this stage. Florida had to go through two tough teams in the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1 and the Boston Bruins, for the second straight year, in Round 2. The Panthers finished the season third overall in the Eastern Conference with 110 points behind the Carolina Hurricanes (111 points) and their conference finals opponent, the New York Rangers (114 points).
Prediction
Florida proved to be the New York Rangers’ hardest opponent during the regular season, but again, the regular season no longer matters. Both teams have played well in the postseason, getting great goaltending and scoring above 3.5 goals per game.
Florida’s goaltending statistics were second in the league during the regular season, but this is skewed a bit as their backup played most of the “easy” games and turned in a .925 save percentage. Sergei Bobrovsky had a great season with a .915 save percentage and has continued his solid play in the playoffs. Barring an injury, Bobrovsky will play every game. Even so, I will have to give the goaltending edge to Ranger netminder, Igor Shesterkin, who has been lights out with a .931 save percentage in the postseason. The Rangers have to shake the dreaded Presidents’ Trophy curse, and Florida has what it takes to beat them.
Prediction: Florida in 7 games
Sound Of Hockey Patreon Bracket challenge update
Sound Of Hockey Patreon members were able to participate in the NHL Bracket Challenge, and there are some talented (and/or lucky) Sound Of Hockey supporters out there. Amazingly, 16.4 percent of the brackets correctly picked the four conference finals teams.
Here are some other tidbits of how the Sound Of Hockey Patreon members filled out their brackets:
Percentage of conference finals’ teams picked to win the Stanley Cup:
- Dallas Stars – 45.5%
- New York Rangers – 14.5%
- Edmonton Oilers – 7.3%
- Florida Panthers – 3.6%
With New York and Dallas being the top two teams in the regular season, it is fitting they ranked 1 and 2 in Patreon members selecting them to win. Dallas was the Sound Of Hockey fan-favorite pick by a long shot.
Percentage of Stanley Cup Final matchups picked:
- Dallas Stars vs. New York Rangers – 32.7%
- Dallas Stars vs. Florida Panthers – 5.5%
- Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers- 5.5%
- Edmonton Oilers vs. New York Rangers 3.6%
There are currently two perfect brackets remaining. Congratulations to IcedKraken, who has Dallas over Florida, and GianniKraken, who has Dallas winning over New York.
There are seven brackets left that have a shot at winning the bracket challenge:
- If Dallas wins over Florida – IcedKraken
- If Dallas wins over New York – GianniKraken
- If Edmonton wins over Florida – mipmipmipmip
- If Edmonton wins over New York – PhantomX182
- If New York wins over Dallas – Rob the Crow Ally
- If New York wins over Edmonton – stdbone
- If Florida wins over either Dallas or Edmonton – “Garths life jacket”
If you would like to support Sound Of Hockey, you can become a Patreon member here.
Sound Of Hockey staff picks
| Name | Western Conf. Pick | Eastern Conf. Pick | Stanley Cup Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Barr | Dallas Stars in 6 | New York Rangers in 7 | Dallas Stars |
| Cameron Riggers | Edmonton Oilers in 6 | New York Rangers in 7 | Edmonton Oilers |
| Darren Brown | Dallas Stars in 5 | New York Rangers in 6 | Dallas Stars |
| Curtis Isacke | Dallas Stars in 6 | Florida Panthers in 6 | Dallas Stars |
| Blaiz Grubic | Dallas Stars in 6 | Florida Panthers in 7 | Dallas Stars |
Wrap up
Based on the NHL bracket picks and the Sound Of Hockey crew’s picks, the Dallas Stars are a heavy favorite to win the cup. In reality, all four remaining teams are extremely talented and have what it takes. The conference finals will be two fun series to watch, so sit back and enjoy.
Game 1 between the Rangers and Panthers is Wednesday evening, and Oilers/Stars gets underway Thursday.
- May 22 – 5:00 pm Pacific – Panthers at Rangers – Game 1
- May 23 – 5:30 pm Pacific – Oilers at Stars – Game 1
Feel free to comment below with your picks for the conference finals and eventual Stanley Cup champion.
Dallas in 6
Panthers in 7
Panthers in 7 for the cup.
I’m a little surprised that out of all 5 of you nobody picked the panthers to win. It will be a very close final I believe and it could go either way.
Cameron do you really think Edmonton can beat both the stars and the Panthers without goaltending? Dallas is built to dismantle a team like Edmonton, look for Edmonton to do a lot of diving to try to draw penalties that’s all they have. I was blown away that the refs gave so many calls to them on obvious dives dying the Vancouver series.
The picks we had for the Stanley cup align with what we picked at the beginning of the playoffs. Cameron is the only one to update his pick as he originally had Colorado winning.
Panthers are looking really good.
Makes sense….
and look for a lot of Stars players picking themselves up off the ice too 🙂
Rangers are a good team, but they mirror the Oilers in that they’re not all that impressive 5 on 5. Their formula has been to rely on strong goaltending and score on the PP, but it just doesn’t seem sustainable to me. The Panthers are awesome at even strength, plus Bob looks great. I think it’ll be Panthers in a pretty short series.
In both series, the team that adjusts the fastest and best will win. If someone give me A $100 gold piece, I will flip it for you although you may not get the coin back. Edmonton adjusted by using their size and length on Vancouver those 2 games and that is why I think Edmonton is going to win. My heat is with NY because of Wenneberg.
I think the thing you have to remember is that Edmonton barely beat a very beat up Vancouver team who exceed their expectations. Dallas is deeper offensively defensively and in net than Vancouver. They are also well coached and have done incredibly well adjusting their game plan. It will be very difficult series for Edmonton only way they have a chance is if the refs decide it.
My bet is that it’s a three horse race and a three sided dice could probably beat out most brackets at this point.
Edmonton is going to squeak by in this round and so will the Rangers, who will be the Oilers in 4 for the Cup.
*beat the Oilers… (sigh)
A sweep in the finals? Bold call.
Good summary but lacks analysis of playoff beard quality and its impact on the teams’ playoff success.
This is a very good point. I will remember this for future articles.
On a crossover from the Patreon Mailbag.
Which Conference Finals team should the Kraken most try and emulate?
While there was a “split” in the conversation, I think the team that is trying to emulate Seattle is the team that Seattle should emulate.
Pete DeBoer is on record as saying the depth of last season’s Kraken team is what team should be trying to emulate, and that is certainly what the Stars are all about. By the way, Pete DeBoer has in fact been in the Western Conference Finals in five of the past six seasons. The one year he did not make it was the year LTIR Vegas missed the playoffs altogether.
Miro Heiskanen is the only player on the Stars who is under 30 and was drafted in the top ten. The closest thing they have to a current “superstar” is Jason Robertson – a second round pick. I think given the limitations of the Kraken’s roster and a lack of “star power”, I think they should be emulating Dallas rather than Edmonton, New York, or Florida.
Also on record praising Seattle’s “four lines” approach is none other than Steve Yzerman.