It’s no secret that the Seattle Kraken need to score more goals next season. Goal-scoring issues plagued the team from the start of last season, with only three goals in their first four games to start. The Kraken finished the 2023-24 regular season 28th in the league with an average of 2.61 goals per game, down 25 percent from the 2022-23 season. Clearly, targeting goal scorers in the offseason is crucial. One way they can do that is in free agency that opens July 1. To help us all prepare, I put together a list of potential targets for the Kraken in free agency.
Assumptions
Roster spots: Assuming no trades happen before free agency, the Kraken will have four or five forward spots to fill from last season. Shane Wright is likely to take one of these spots, and two more spots will be depth pieces that are not expected to produce a lot of goals but can fill in down the lineup and help in case of injuries. For the purposes of this exercise, we will focus on the two remaining roster spots that will be expected to contribute offensively.
Budget: I estimate the Kraken will have less than $10 million in AAV to sign these two players. This may be a conservative estimate, but without knowing the pending RFA contracts of Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen, we’ll use this constraint. Additionally, targeting a center would allow Jared McCann to move back to wing.
Contract estimates: I will mostly use contract estimates from AFPAnalytics NHL projections for 2024-25, published in May. This ensures reasonable contract projections. While I typically reference Evolving Hockey contract projections, sharing their work does not feel right since their work is behind a subscription paywall (I will use one of their contract projections for this exercise).
Target free agents
Viktor Arvidsson – RW – $4.7M AAV
Arvidsson, 31, had an injury-plagued season last year, playing just 18 games for the Los Angeles Kings. He’s a proven shooter, and if healthy, can score 20-plus goals. His age and recent injuries might provide a discount for the signing team.
Anthony Duclair – LW/RW – $4.3M AAV
Duclair, 29 this summer, is a speedy goal scorer who missed most of the 2022-23 season due to an Achilles injury. He returned in 2023-24 and managed 24 goals across two teams, and despite some defensive flaws, his goal-scoring ability is worth considering.
Jake DeBrusk – LW – $5.8M AAV
DeBrusk has been a potential Kraken target since February. Reliable for close to 20 goals a season, his $5.8M AAV might seem high compared to Arvidsson or Duclair, but his health and consistency make him a safer bet.
Chandler Stephenson – C – $5.6M AAV
Stephenson could replace Alexander Wennberg but with more goal scoring. A second- or third-line center who can play on special teams, Stephenson has scored 15-plus goals in each of the last four seasons. Although pricey at $5.6M AAV, his experience and two Stanley Cups add value.
Sean Monahan – C – $2.9M AAV
Monahan is a cost-effective option that allows for spending elsewhere. As a solid third-line center with some defensive weaknesses, he logged 26 goals last season. Despite a history of injuries, he played 83 games in 2023-24. His face-off skills are notable, though we all know face-offs don’t matter. Evolving-Hockey has Monahan north of $5 million AAV so this might not be as affordable as we thought.
The reality of landing a target
There’s a common misconception that teams can acquire specific players in free agency by simply outbidding others. In reality, most free agents have a shortlist of preferred teams, and agents gauge interest from those teams. This means teams have less than a 15 percent chance of even engaging in discussions with their desired players. Even with a match in interests from both parties, competition remains fierce.
Addressing the Kraken’s goal-scoring issues in free agency requires realistic expectations and working within the constraints of the situation. It is conceivable that most of the goal scoring forwards might not want to play in Seattle given a perceived unlikelihood the Kraken could contend for a Stanley Cup in the next several years.
What are your thoughts? Who do you think the Kraken should target in free agency?