It’s no secret that the Seattle Kraken need to score more goals next season. Goal-scoring issues plagued the team from the start of last season, with only three goals in their first four games to start. The Kraken finished the 2023-24 regular season 28th in the league with an average of 2.61 goals per game, down 25 percent from the 2022-23 season. Clearly, targeting goal scorers in the offseason is crucial. One way they can do that is in free agency that opens July 1. To help us all prepare, I put together a list of potential targets for the Kraken in free agency.
Assumptions
Roster spots: Assuming no trades happen before free agency, the Kraken will have four or five forward spots to fill from last season. Shane Wright is likely to take one of these spots, and two more spots will be depth pieces that are not expected to produce a lot of goals but can fill in down the lineup and help in case of injuries. For the purposes of this exercise, we will focus on the two remaining roster spots that will be expected to contribute offensively.
Budget: I estimate the Kraken will have less than $10 million in AAV to sign these two players. This may be a conservative estimate, but without knowing the pending RFA contracts of Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen, we’ll use this constraint. Additionally, targeting a center would allow Jared McCann to move back to wing.
Contract estimates: I will mostly use contract estimates from AFPAnalytics NHL projections for 2024-25, published in May. This ensures reasonable contract projections. While I typically reference Evolving Hockey contract projections, sharing their work does not feel right since their work is behind a subscription paywall (I will use one of their contract projections for this exercise).
Target free agents
Viktor Arvidsson – RW – $4.7M AAV
Arvidsson, 31, had an injury-plagued season last year, playing just 18 games for the Los Angeles Kings. He’s a proven shooter, and if healthy, can score 20-plus goals. His age and recent injuries might provide a discount for the signing team.
Anthony Duclair – LW/RW – $4.3M AAV
Duclair, 29 this summer, is a speedy goal scorer who missed most of the 2022-23 season due to an Achilles injury. He returned in 2023-24 and managed 24 goals across two teams, and despite some defensive flaws, his goal-scoring ability is worth considering.
Jake DeBrusk – LW – $5.8M AAV
DeBrusk has been a potential Kraken target since February. Reliable for close to 20 goals a season, his $5.8M AAV might seem high compared to Arvidsson or Duclair, but his health and consistency make him a safer bet.
Chandler Stephenson – C – $5.6M AAV
Stephenson could replace Alexander Wennberg but with more goal scoring. A second- or third-line center who can play on special teams, Stephenson has scored 15-plus goals in each of the last four seasons. Although pricey at $5.6M AAV, his experience and two Stanley Cups add value.
Sean Monahan – C – $2.9M AAV
Monahan is a cost-effective option that allows for spending elsewhere. As a solid third-line center with some defensive weaknesses, he logged 26 goals last season. Despite a history of injuries, he played 83 games in 2023-24. His face-off skills are notable, though we all know face-offs don’t matter. Evolving-Hockey has Monahan north of $5 million AAV so this might not be as affordable as we thought.
The reality of landing a target
There’s a common misconception that teams can acquire specific players in free agency by simply outbidding others. In reality, most free agents have a shortlist of preferred teams, and agents gauge interest from those teams. This means teams have less than a 15 percent chance of even engaging in discussions with their desired players. Even with a match in interests from both parties, competition remains fierce.
Addressing the Kraken’s goal-scoring issues in free agency requires realistic expectations and working within the constraints of the situation. It is conceivable that most of the goal scoring forwards might not want to play in Seattle given a perceived unlikelihood the Kraken could contend for a Stanley Cup in the next several years.
What are your thoughts? Who do you think the Kraken should target in free agency?
I would be most interested in Duclair on this list. Possibly Monahan.
Don’t forget the tax benefits of Seattle. No state income tax is huge.
As the only state north of the Mason – Dixon line with an NHL team and no state income tax, I think there would be a lot of appeal, especially for those “good Canadian boys” from western Canada.
Digging into the assumptions a bit, it seems there is about $10m for Beniers and Tolvanen, and Tanev is likely slotted for one of those healthy scratch spots.
If that’s the idea, it seems like they have a few options.
Add one big name in free agency.
Add a couple middling forwards in free agency and push a lot of money to the bottom of the roster.
Trade. This could be either one or two forwards and be combined with free agency. The added appeal to this is it could open up the opportunity to shed some cap in favor of a more appropriate contract on the fourth line and allow for two “above average” additions. It also leaves open the door for prospects like Rehkopf and Winterton.
The first two options really seem unpalatable. Overpaying or undershooting. I think there has to be a trade if they’re looking to improve.
Great stuff John,
Go Kraken!!!
From the Evolving Hockey “Terms of Use” :
Permitted Distribution: Statistical models you create based on data provided by the Site may be publicly shared as long as you provide a link back to the Site and reference the Site as the source of the data.
Please use Evolving Hockey… AFP is “not great”.
Tanev will absolutely be moved out. So there should be close to his entire AAV (3.5) available as well. I like Duclair & DeBrusk on this list. I do not think that necessarily makes this a Playoff team, however. Nor do I think it makes the Kraken a “fun” watch (which would be a good back up to no Playoffs) I absolutely believe the Playoffs are the expectation of Kraken owner. So we will see if Francis can do some things differently than he has in the past.
The team is in a bit of a tough spot where at the moment the best we could be next year is 4th in the division behind Van, Vegas, and EDM. We’re still building and I think the future looks bright but these next 2-3 years is critical for being at least relevant so we can get to a spot where a real push for the Cup can happen. There are a few contracts that are up after next year so I view this year’s moves as the groundwork for that transition. Of course Ron could make a trade or two that changes all of this. It’s difficult to know what the pressures are. Do we need to accelerate the process due to the possibility of the NBA returning to Seattle and with it the likelihood of lost revenue for the hockey club or are the pockets deep enough to navigate through that?
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