On July 5, Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis took the microphone at center ice and addressed fans assembled for the the last day of Kraken Development Camp to announce the team’s re-signing of Eeli Tolvanen. That same day, Francis also announced the signing of Berkly Catton to his entry-level contract, indicating that the Kraken were front office was taking care of business and checking items off its summer to-do list. But as the applause and the excitement of the day died down, all attention turned to the one piece of unfinished business: signing Matty Beniers.

At the time, we knew that the Kraken were in talks with the young forward’s camp. Francis told the media on July 1 that the team had already spoken with agent Pat Brisson and planned to do so again on July 2. 

Even so, nearly two months of public quiet ensued–leaving a vacuum into which the Kraken fanbase poured its anxiety and speculation. As the weeks passed, we urged patience. Restricted free agent deals can take some time to come together.

Finally, on August 20, the dam broke. The Kraken announced the team had signed Beniers to a seven-year, $50 million contract, carrying a $7.14 million average annual value. 

Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown gave his instant analysis after the news dropped. With the benefit of extra time to analyze the deal–and finish a vacation, ahem–what else can we say about where Beniers and his contract stacks up against the league and similar deals struck over the years? And what conclusions can we draw about whether the Kraken made a sound investment? Here are my takeaways on the deal.

1. Beniers makes history again

Matty Beniers is Seattle’s first ever draft pick, highest-drafted player, first draft pick to make his career debut with the team, and its first player to win a major NHL award–the 2023 Calder Trophy. His new contract now joins that litany of milestones.

In what is highly unlikely a coincidence, Beniers’ deal matches the term and total dollar value of the richest contract in Kraken history–the contract Seattle gave to defenseman Brandon Montour on July 1. (Vince Dunn’s contract remains the richest in terms of AAV.)

The seven-year term is also the longest contract in team history, tied with contracts given to Montour and Chandler Stephenson earlier this offseason. While the deal is lengthy, it is one year short of the eight-year maximum term in the CBA for a team’s own restricted free agent. It ties Beniers to the Kraken through his age 28 season, and it buys out one unrestricted free agent year. 

Let’s get quizzical: The Matty Beniers contract is the first time the Kraken have signed one of their draft picks to a second deal after the player’s entry-level contract. It is not, however, the first time the team has signed a player to a second contract after originally signing the player to an entry-level contract. It has happened twice previously. Can you name the two players? Scroll to the bottom of the article for the answer (or listen to the last Sound Of Hockey Podcast).

2. The Beniers contract comes in near market projections

Earlier in the offseason, Evolving Hockey and AFP Analytics published contract projections for notable unrestricted and restricted free agents. While their full methods are not public, each outfit uses contracts signed by comparable players as a basis.

Evolving Hockey projected Beniers’ most likely contract as a seven-year, $7.1 million dollar AAV contract. After rounding, this is precisely the contract that the team and player settled on. For its part, AFP Analytics projected a seven-year deal, carrying a $6.6 million AAV. This was also quite close to the actual deal. 

AFP Analytics used the following player contracts as comparables:

I’ll return to a few of these names in a moment.

3. Beniers’ market value slipped from where it was last offseason

If Matty Beniers’ new contract checked in at (or ever-so-slightly above) his market value, one might question the near unanimous public praise of the deal. I think there are three explanations for the reaction–rooted in fandom, anchoring bias, and structural factors, respectively.

First, among Kraken fans, I believe many are justifiably excited that a young player they have followed closely will be with the team long-term. Beniers’ willingness to commit to seven years in Seattle is viewed as a positive, particularly coming off a disappointing campaign for the team. That factor alone makes the deal a win for many.

Second, when a contract extension for Beniers was first discussed last summer, several analysts, myself included, predicted an extension with a maximum eight-year term and approximately $64 million total ($8 million dollars annually). I arrived at this figure using age and point production comparables at the time. Judged against that standard, securing Beniers for $14 million “less” in total commitments could be viewed as a win for the team in a salary cap environment.

Yet, the fact is, Beniers’ market value declined this past season as his offensive production fell from .71 points per game in 2022-23 to .48 points per game in 2023-24. This sophomore regression casts more doubt on his ultimate offensive upside and puts him into a slightly different contract category. Viewing this deal as a “value” relative to earlier expectations may be an example of “anchoring bias”–a cognitive bias where we weigh our initial impressions of Beniers, both on-ice and in projecting the long-term value, too heavily. We think Beniers is “really” the Calder Trophy winner and last year was an aberration.

How much to weigh Beniers’ on-ice production decline was likely a key sticking point in negotiations. As we have said on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we believe that there was an eight-year contract offer on the table for Beniers last offseason. This offseason, both sides mitigated their risk by settling on a seven-year term. From the team perspective, the team gets some relief by lowering the total dollar commitment. 

From Beniers’ perspective, he has the chance to get to unrestricted free agency one year sooner and potentially recoup the money he “lost” due to his down season. Beniers’ $7.14 million AAV represents 8.12 percent of the 2024-25 salary cap. If he is able to maintain his on-ice value over the course of his current deal and secure another deal worth 8.12 percent of the cap in 2031, his 2031-32 salary would be a little more than $10 million (assuming five percent annual growth in the cap). This would mitigate most of what he may have “lost” by his down season. But it shifts a fair amount of injury and performance risk onto Beniers.

Third, we need to keep in mind that structural factors depress the salaries of all young players. Given what we know about how hockey players age, the next half decade projects to be the most productive of Beniers’ career. Even so, under league rules, Beniers was still six years away from being able to freely negotiate a contract with all 32 NHL teams. I think most would agree that Beniers’ contract is likely to be a better production-to-dollar “value” than Chandler Stephenson’s deal from earlier in the offseason. But Stephenson had the leverage of unrestricted free agency. We improve our evaluations when we take a closer look at player leverage in grading the “value” of a deal achieved by the team. Stephenson had it; Beniers–like other young players–didn’t have it.

4. Beniers trails many players who have earned similar contracts in shot generation

Digging a little deeper, I wanted to see how Beniers measured up against players who had received similar contracts in the past. In an exercise that would have been many hours of labor easier in the CapFriendly era, I assembled a list of all contracts signed in the last 15 years by a forward aged 23 years old or younger with a contract term of six years or longer, and an AAV of between seven percent and 9.25 percent of the salary cap in the first year of the contract. This exercise returned 25 total results, including Beniers’ deal:

The good news is, every one of these players is still in the league and producing. James Van Reimsdyk doesn’t currently have a contract, but, even at 35 years old, I’d be surprised if he didn’t find a home by opening day. And all but one of these players (Brandon Saad) saw their per-game point production continue to increase post-signing. (Seth Jarvis and Juraj Slafkovsky, like Beniers, haven’t yet played post-signing.)

Beniers fits comfortably within this list in several important respects. Of these 25 players, Beniers ranked 13th in total time on ice and ninth in average time on ice at the time of signing. This reflects the substantial role he has played for the Kraken early in his career–even relative to a distinguished list of players. Beniers also has the high-profile pedigree characteristic of players earning a contract like this. All but one of these 25 players (Saad again) was a first round pick, with 18 of 25 being a top-10 pick, like Beniers.

It’s a great list for Beniers to be on.

On the other hand, Beniers’ actual and expected point production trails the average in this group when normalizing for ice time. Beniers is toward the bottom of the list (t-20th) with 2.12 points per 60 minutes at the time of signing. Likewise, his individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 0.80 is in the bottom five in this group (t-21st).

What is the root of the issue? Beniers struggles to generate his own shots on goal relative to this peer group. He sees the ice well and can generate looks for his teammates at a reasonable clip (17th in assists/60), but he generates only 6.12 shots on goal per 60 minutes, which is the third-lowest of this group of players.

He needs to take a leap forward in generating his own scoring chances, particularly from the most dangerous areas of the ice, if he is going to be an “average” performer among his peers in this comparable contract group.

This is particularly true because contracts like Beniers’ deal come with the weight of public and organizational expectation. Consider the case of Nikolaj Ehlers–one of Beniers’ contract comparables. He has continued as a solid performer and analytics darling for the life of his contract in Winnipeg, but his inability to take control of games and score, particularly late in the season and in the playoffs, has led to ever-increasing scrutiny and trade rumors.

5. Seattle is paying for Beniers’ future role and production

I also wanted to see where Beniers’ contract stacks up against the other centers in the league going into the 2024-25 season. While public position tracking data isn’t perfect, I tabulated a list of NHL forwards with a minimum threshold of total face-offs as a stand-in for the league’s centers. Beniers’ contract ranks 36th by average annual value–equivalent of high-end 2C.

Yet, his .48 points per game from last season ranked 93rd among the group–equivalent of a low-end 3C.

All of the foregoing analysis leads me to the conclusion that the Beniers contract is slightly above Beniers’ market value based on historical precedent and existing production.

Even so, Seattle likely saw at least four legitimate reasons to agree to that deal. First and foremost is the rising cap. For the first time in years, a team can have confidence in a steadily rising cap over the medium-term. A rising cap decreases the burden of a long-term deal like this on a percentage basis.

Second, Beniers is young enough that his point production can reasonably be expected to continue to improve. Among the comparable contract group, those players saw an average .21 point-per-game production increase after signing their new deals. If Beniers’ numbers see a similar uptick, he would settle in around a .83 point-per-game player going forward. This production would have ranked him 34th in the league this past season–almost precisely the same spot as his salary puts him.

Third, the team almost certainly values the narrative and public persona of Matty Beniers. Beniers was the Kraken’s first draft pick. He represented the team at the 2024 NHL Draft, announcing top pick Catton. He sits squarely at the center of conversations about the next captain of the Kraken. I’m sure the team would like Beniers–and his likable, professional demeanor–to be the face of the franchise moving forward. This has value beyond goals and assists.

Finally, I do believe it is fair to say Beniers’ point production doesn’t accurately convey his on-ice value. As Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones recently wrote, Beniers delivers excellent defensive zone and transition play, and this has value. 

On the other hand, Beniers has not yet been able to compliment and buttress those ample skills with consistent offensive-zone play driving and shot generation. The best defense is the ability to trap the puck in the offensive zone. Only when Beniers gets more effective offensively will his defensive exploits truly get the recognition they deserve. 

In the meantime, we risk overstating Beniers’ value by comparing his skills beyond the statsheet to Beniers’ childhood role model Patrice Bergeron. (Jordan Eberle made this comparison again recently to 93.3 FM KJR.) Bergeron was already a .9 point-per-game player in his age 20 season–a mark Beniers has not yet approached. Bergeron tilted the ice with his all-around game. Beniers is not in the same neighborhood offensively.

To the contrary, Beniers’ numbers at signing are much closer to those of ex-teammate Alex Wennberg when Wennberg signed a six-year contract with Columbus as a 22-year-old. Wennberg wasn’t among the comparables I analyzed because his contract accounted for only 6.5 percent of the cap in its first year. But, as noted above, AFP Analytics saw Wennberg as Beniers’ fourth-most similar player contract in projecting Beniers’ deal this summer.

As Kraken fans no doubt recall, Wennberg struggled to create his own shots too. Wennberg’s inability to grow into a more dynamic offensive game contributed to Columbus buying out his contract early. Wennberg’s career trajectory is a sobering cautionary tale. Beniers needs to take another step forward offensively to escape a similar trajectory.

6. The Collective Bargaining Agreement minimizes the risk here 

While I don’t think the Beniers deal is necessarily a strong value based on market comparables, it is important to note that the Collective Bargain Agreement incentivizes big bets like this one on young talent. Until a player turns 26, a team has the option to buy out the remainder of a contract at just one-third of the remaining salary value. 

With respect to Beniers, this means that if Beniers stagnates offensively or his injury issues grow, the team will have the option after each of the next four seasons to get out of the deal for a fraction of the cost. (As mentioned above, this is what the Blue Jackets did with Wennberg.) For this reason alone, a long-term bet on a player as talented as Matty Beniers is a good one. It’s mostly upside for the team.

7. Seattle’s cap sheet suggests another transaction may be coming

After accounting for Beniers’ new contract, the Seattle Kraken have just a few thousand dollars in cap space remaining with only 12 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders on the roster. This is two players short of the maximum roster limit.

The situation has the potential to become untenable very quickly should normal wear-and-tear injuries arise. If a player with a significant contract were to suffer a long-term injury, it could break the cap crunch by allowing the team cap relief associated with a so-called “LTIR” designation. But, as it stands, the team faces the risk of entering the season hamstrung from rostering even one extra forward. This is not how teams like to operate.

Accordingly, I would not be surprised if the Kraken are active in trade calls that could provide some relief. Forward Brandon Tanev is the most obvious candidate to move because he has on-ice value but a single year of a multi-million dollar cap hit and can be replaced by several players in the organization at a lower number. Other avenues are possible too but would likely require either a replacement piece coming back or a bigger roster shake-up.

This is one storyline to follow as we draw nearer to training camp.

Let’s get quizzical answer: Earlier this offseason, the Kraken re-signed first-ever signee Luke Henman and goalie Ales Stezka after their entry-level contracts expired.