As the calendar turns to September, developmental hockey leagues across the world are back on the ice for games. And since it’s never too early to start thinking about the next NHL Draft (right?), that means the time is now to get out a preseason watchlist of 2025 NHL Draft prospects.

The “Data Score” approach

As in years past, my list is based on quantifiable data only. It’s built from the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”). What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.

For this preseason watchlist, I used player data scoring data from the 2022-23 season filtered through Chatel’s NHLe. I then make adjustments for age, height, and position, as well as a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues. I’ve gone through the methodology previously here and here. The product of my work is a number I’ve termed a prospect’s “Data Score.” This number no longer projects NHL scoring but is (hopefully) useful in describing the relative strength of prospects.

One change I’m making this year is in the language I’m using. In the past I have referred to my Data Score list as data-only “ranking.” But, upon reflection, I don’t think the term “ranking” is productive in describing the work. I’m not engaged in the extraordinarily challenging process of subjective prospect-to-prospect comparison. Instead, I’m simply providing a list of top scoring players for further scouting investigation, loosely graduated based on their data. I think this is how the best-run NHL teams use NHLe data or other data-based measures. The data helps identify players as a tool to further research and scouting. So, moving forward, I’ll do my best to refrain from referring to Data Score as an NHL Draft ranking.

How did last year’s preseason watchlist fare?

Just how useful is a Data Score based on a player’s scoring data from the season before the draft year in question? As you might expect, it’s not perfect. Players—particularly first-time draft-eligible players—often take a very large statistical leap in their draft seasons as they continue to mature. An important season awaits all of these players. And there are always players that teams and scouts “like” (or “dislike”) more than their scoring data would suggest.

That said, it is remarkable how much you can learn even from scoring data predating the draft year. Looking at last year’s top-32 first-time draft eligibles on my preseason watchlist, draftniks will see a lot of familiar names. The top five picks in the 2024 NHL Draft were all there, as were a remarkable 11 of the top 15 players drafted.

All told, 15 of the top 32 in my preseason list were drafted in the first round and 26 were selected within the top four rounds of the 2024 NHL Draft. The six that went later or undrafted were one Russian player, two defensemen 5-foot-11 or shorter, and three forwards 5-foot-10 or shorter.

The accuracy of last year’s preseason list as a predictive tool declines the deeper you go into it, but this remarkable success rate at the top gives me confidence that the Data Score approach can serve its purpose as a watchlist.

2025 NHL Draft first-time eligible prospect watchlist

Without further preamble, here are the 32 first-time eligible draft prospects with the highest Data Score. (If “totals” is listed under “Team,” it means the player played for multiple teams in the league indicated.)

As mentioned above, the names in this range are the most notable. Broadly speaking, the CHL continues as the top developmental league, accounting for 21 of these 32 prospects. Notable to me, though, is the presence of six players from the QMJHL after that league went largely unrepresented at the top of the 2024 NHL Draft. Could it be a bounce back year for the Q?

Prospects who have already garnered significant draft coverage, including James Hagens, Ivan Ryabkin, Porter Martone, Michael Misa, Malcolm Spence, Roger McQueen, and Anton Frondell, show up within this list. At this point in the process, I don’t believe it would surprise anyone if all seven were drafted in the top 10 in the spring. Good friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast Chris Peters has them all listed within his “Way Too Early Top 10 Prospect List” for the 2025 Draft.

Beyond the top 32, here are 64 more first-time draft-eligible prospects to watch:

2025 NHL Draft re-entry prospect watchlist

Each year, many prospects who slipped through the cracks of the previous draft(s) finally hear their names called. 42 such re-draft prospects were selected in the 2024 NHL Draft. From a Seattle Kraken perspective, Ryker Evans is an example of one such prospect who had to wait an extra year to get drafted in 2022. And, as Evans proved, there is still a pathway to NHL success for these players. Here are 64 re-draft candidates to watch.

A few near misses preview the 2026 NHL Draft

Age eligibility for the 2025 NHL Draft cuts off at Sept. 15, 2007. If a player is born after that date in 2007, he is not eligible until the 2026 draft. It so happens that this year’s draft might look quite a bit different at the top if the rule instead allowed all 2007-born players to be eligible.

Burgeoning superstar forward Gavin McKenna (birthdate: 12/20/2007) would bump James Hagens out of the No. 1 overall spot on the watchlist if he were eligible for this draft with a Data Score of 64.71. As it is, McKenna seems destined for draft hype reminiscent of his cousin Connor Bedard once next season rolls around. The fact that McKenna still has two seasons left for the Medicine Hat Tigers is scary for the rest of the WHL.

Beyond McKenna, defenseman Xavier Villeneuve (9/29/2007) of the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL) and forward Ryan Roobroeck (9/25/2007) of the Niagara IceDogs (OHL) would also be in the 2025 NHL Draft watchlist top 10 if they were eligible. Forward Arseni Ilyin (12/24/2007) of SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL) would come in just outside the top 32, but his data suggests he could be the next big name from Russia.

All four of these players are names to track for the future.

Continued draft coverage at Sound Of Hockey

Like last year, we intend to develop a library of draft prospect videos for the 2025 NHL Draft, as well as generate the Sound Of Hockey Big Board and a final data-only list. If time allows, we’ll also plan on doing a midseason check-in on our watchlist. Is there anything else you’d like to see from our draft coverage at Sound Of Hockey? Leave a note in the comments below or reach out to us on X, formerly known as Twitter, @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.

Header photo courtesy Brian Liesse, Seattle Thunderbirds.