Welcome back to Year 2 of our composite ranking of Seattle Kraken prospects—which we have called the “Deep Sea Blue Chips.” Similar to our NHL Draft composite ranking—the Sound Of Hockey Big Board—we have gathered a shortlist of public scouting and draft analyst rankings often published this time of year and created a consensus board. Here are the sources we used:
- McKeen’s Hockey (link)
- Elite Prospects (link)
- Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff (link)
- Corey Pronman, The Athletic (link)
- NHL.com (link)
Which Kraken prospects are at the top of the stack? How do these players match up with top prospects from other organizations? And how does the organization measure up as a whole? Let’s dig in on those questions first, and then I’ll give a few more prospect-specific thoughts, along with my own personal rankings and a few new “All Shifts” videos, to close it out.
Berkly Catton tops the 2024 Deep Sea Blue Chips
The drama starts at the top with Berkly Catton narrowly edging Shane Wright as the organization’s top prospect. Three of the six boards we utilized had Catton as Seattle’s No. 1 overall prospect, with the others ranking him second overall. Two of the six boards had Shane Wright first, with three slotting him second, and one (Elite Prospects) holding him ineligible based on their ranking criteria. Based on its writing over the summer, it’s fair to say Elite Prospects is bullish on Wright, so this is close to a dead heat, but Catton tops the list on the strength of his first-place votes.
Carson Rehkopf rounds out a strong top three. Talented 2022 second-round picks Jagger Firkus and David Goyette closely follow, joined by defenseman Ryker Evans if you still consider him a prospect, which three lists did. Evans is the only defenseman in Seattle’s top 12. Niklas Kokko is Seattle’s top-ranked goalie prospect at No. 12 overall.
The Kraken have a top-10 prospect pool in the league
Group wisdom puts the Kraken prospect pool somewhere around No. 9 in the league. Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff, Corey Pronman of The Athletic, and Elite Prospects all have Seattle with the ninth-best system. McKeen’s is a little higher on Seattle’s prospect pipeline, ranking the Kraken fifth overall.
More data-inclined analyses have rated the Kraken even higher. My pre-draft data-only ranking had the Kraken third in the league based on the total Data Score of their prospects within the top 200 in the league. Before the draft, Scouching had Seattle as his top prospect pool overall.
The strength of the system remains its depth of viable NHL talent
Where the Kraken fall short of some of their competitors is in perceived high-end talent. No prospect analyst we consulted had any Kraken prospect graded within the top 10 overall in the sport. (For context, my data-based approach agrees, putting Wright just outside the top 10.) Berkly Catton and Shane Wright fell within the next tier—ranked between 10th and 30th overall by every analyst we consulted. After that, both Carson Rehkopf and Jagger Firkus were ranked within the top 100 on four of five boards. But no other Kraken prospect received more than one top-100 ranking.
The strength of Seattle’s system shows up in its depth. While ranking only two Seattle prospects in its top 50, McKeen’s gives Seattle 13 of the top 200 prospects in the game. The tier from Jani Nyman (No. 7) down to Ville Ottavainen (No. 17) on the list above would be the envy of most teams.
Few teams have the depth of viable potential NHL contributors Seattle currently boasts. The challenge ahead for the Kraken is in identifying which prospects to elevate into a future core and which to use as chips in acquiring the high-end talent the system seems to lack.
Scouting the Kraken—a personal list of top Seattle Kraken prospects
Here is how I would stack Seattle’s prospects entering the 2024-25 season. I’ve broken the prospects out into tiers, and I’ll provide brief comments after each group.
The “DSH Rank” is my ranking. The “Comp. Rank” column reflects the same consensus public ranking discussed above. The “Diff.” column shows how far my ranking departs from the public consensus. The “Upside” column is a numerical value I’ve assigned to each prospect’s ceiling on a 1-10 scale. My ranking considers upside, likelihood of reaching that upside, and the player’s timeline to the NHL. Let’s dig in.
While I agree with the public analysts that it’s a close proposition at the top, I’d have Shane Wright as the No. 1 overall prospect based on his strong—and underrated—2023-24 pro season with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. I believe Catton’s game will also translate, but he hasn’t had the same opportunity.
Wright has a bit more adversity on his resume than Catton does. But, particularly after last season’s skating improvements, Wright has every trait to excel in the NHL. He brings height, weight, speed, skill, hockey intelligence, and leadership. He plays a heady game in both the offensive and defensive zones, and makes his teammates better.
Catton has the advantage as a transition-game player and projects at least equally effective as a distributor and shooter in the offensive zone. But I have more questions about his long-term defensive value and suspect his highest and best use may be on the wing. Taken together, it’s close, but I give the edge to Wright.
Moving off that debate, it’s possible I buried the lede; I believe Carson Rehkopf belongs in the same tier with Wright and Catton. Like those players, he brings an offensive toolkit that can be confidently projected into the top six. He has similar defensive questions to Catton and has already been moved off the center position, but he has size and strength to pair a pinpoint shot with a physical style in the offensive zone. Rehkopf’s upside is closer to Catton and Wright than the next tier.
While players in the first tier match top-of-the-lineup upside with a strong probability to realizing an NHL role, players in this next tier are a step down either in overall upside or probability of achieving that outcome. The first two players listed exemplify this.
Evans—to the extent you still consider him a prospect—is a strong bet to play in the NHL for the next half decade as a bottom-four defender, but his upside seems capped. Jani Nyman, on the other hand, has the highest upside of any player in the system outside the first tier but needs to take significant strides with his skating and North American-style hockey sense before we can pencil him into an NHL lineup.
Public consensus says I’m high on Ryan Winterton, but I adored his game with the Coachella Valley Firebirds this past season. He plays tenacious defense, can kill penalties, and moves the puck on the rush. Even if he doesn’t add another level to his offensive game—which I believe he still could—he’s ready to be a good NHL checking forward already.
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard strikes me as a similar player to Winterton, one with the advantage that he may stick at center but with a longer developmental runway left to go. I admit I was excited when I saw Elite Prospects rank him third in the organization. I’d love to see that proven correct.
After that, we get to Seattle’s two hyper-prolific CHL scorers, Jagger Firkus and David Goyette. I switched them back and forth a few times in preparing this ranking. Both face questions about their size, ability to withstand physical pressure, and perform defensively. Firkus took a step forward handling and solving defensive pressure at the junior level this past season, but his ability to carry that over against bigger, faster pros is still up in the air. Goyette has stronger movement skills, but he needs to prove he can produce without the space his junior play speed afforded him. The two of them project to top-nine roles with Coachella Valley and will be Must-See TV on the AHL’s new streaming home FloHockey this year.
The third tier is a high-probability, lower-upside tier. I think Morrison and Ottavainen both have multi-year NHL careers. Ottavainen may be on track to take over the third pair right defense role in Seattle as early as the 2025-26 season, and Morrison has shown he is not out of place in a sheltered NHL role. I believe the consensus ranks on both are too low, failing to fully account for Ottavainen’s tremendous rookie season in the AHL (eighth in the league in plus-minus, first among rookies) and Morrison’s skating gains.
The fourth tier is the reverse of the previous one—made up of the high-upside, low-probability prospects in the organization. Niklas Kokko has shown pretty much everything he could in Liiga, and I believe he is deeply underrated when compared against fellow goalie prospects. That said, the unpredictable nature of the goalie position makes it hard for me to push his ranking much higher until he produces consistently at the AHL level.
Eduard Sale had a difficult first year in the OHL. He appeared to struggle with the transition to the North American game and at times failed to stay engaged off the puck. His production suffered. On the other hand, the flashes of brilliance with the puck on his stick remain—and have started to shine through with a bit more regularity this summer. Lukas Dragicevic is a project defenseman, loaded with offensive skill but working hard to layer in adequate defensive instincts and production. If he can do that, he has second-pair upside.
The fifth tier is separated from the fourth by a step down in overall upside. These players could end up as average NHL contributors if everything clicks for them. Bizarrely, I probably had the most difficult time ranking Julius Miettinen. For a time, I had him ranked in Tier 3 because he strikes me as a higher-certainty projection, but in the end I decided the track record just isn’t long enough yet. If he can improve his on-puck play and scoring production in the WHL this year, he would quickly move up my ranking and closer to his consensus position.
Tier 6 is made up of mostly high-uncertainty players, but also a handful of players who are farther along in their career arc but with more limited upside. I wouldn’t put quite as much stock in the order of the prospects at this point, but I’m intrigued whether Lleyton Roed can carve out an NHL role in the coming years and considered ranking him higher. His play speed and compete level provide a good baseline.
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Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Thanks for the breakdown Curtis. Every time I see a prospect rankings by sites like The Athletic, it’s tough to really grasp how much their rankings are skewed to favor prospects that were just drafted and have seemingly more potential, but have fewer data points indicating what they will actually turn out to be. It’s nice to get a breakdown that more thoroughly evaluates players and gives a firm metric of where you see their upside, alongside a projection of when they will be NHL ready to give a more complete picture of where they stand.
As mention by Chas G. I also find it difficult to compare players like Catton to Shane Wright. Wright has already had an impact in the NHL and Catton may still be in Junior this year. Doesn’t make sense to me. But what make sense is that Curtis is rock solid in his evaluations of players skills and their trends.
Curtis,
You stopped having individual remarks for each player in Tier 5. Could you please comment on what you see for Price, Nelson, and Jugnauth?
Absolutely.
Caden Price has pretty much every physical tool you could ask for, particularly since he has looked bigger and more physical this summer. He can still fill out more, but it’s encouraging that he’s taking steps there. His skill level is also there to be a pro. The area of development for him is hockey sense and consistency. He can probably get there if he’s dedicated but I think it’s going to take seasons of reps without any developmental setbacks.
Tyson Jugnauth has strong skating and possession skills to be an asset on breakouts and in transition. He has solid distribution skills offensively and projects to helm a second unit power play. The question with him is can he perform well enough in front of his own net to survive as a third pair offensive defenseman. He’s lacking both physically and skill-wise on the defensive end right now.
Ty Nelson is such a unique player that I feel a bit out on a limb evaluating him. He’s very talented in some ways but there are also questions all over his profile. His height is an obstacle, but one he was able to solve in junior hockey by hitting physical maturity early and playing an aggressive game. Will that style of a defense work at the pro level? Likewise, his offense is largely tied to his big shot from the point and ability to generate rebounds. This created offense at the junior level but can he evolve into a more well-rounded offensive defenseman professionally? He’s been ready for the leap to the AHL for at least 12 months now and it’s a shame he’s had to wait due to the CHL Transfer Agreement. I’ll be watching him as closely as anyone in CV this year.