As the Seattle Kraken settle into the regular season, they have their sights set on a return to the playoffs. Last year, they were in the hunt for a wild-card spot until the final weeks of the season, but inconsistent scoring held them back. To address this, the front office made significant moves, including head coach and assistant coach changes, and two key free-agent signings—Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson—to help right the ship.
In a recent Sound Of Hockey roundtable discussion, I predicted that the Kraken would finish with 95 points, a number higher than others on the panel. Why 95? Over the past 10 full NHL seasons (excluding those shortened by COVID and the lockout), teams reaching 95 points have made the playoffs 80 percent of the time. On paper, this season’s roster looks like the best in the young franchise’s history. A 95-point season is not out of reach and gives fans a realistic, exciting goal to root for as the year unfolds.
Team tiers
During last season’s playoff push, Sound Of Hockey categorized NHL teams into three tiers, setting target win percentages for each. I’ll be following a similar approach this season by sorting all 32 NHL teams into the following tiers:
- Playoff Bound – Teams that are expected to comfortably make the playoffs. These are teams that surpassed 100 points last season and are likely to repeat that success.
- Bubble – Teams fighting for a playoff spot, most likely battling for wild card positions.
- Tankers – Teams likely to miss the playoffs, making them Seattle’s easiest opponents.
These tiers are fluid and will shift as the season progresses, with teams moving up or down based on their performance. In the NHL, only 16 teams make the playoffs—eight from each conference. With 10 teams currently classified as Playoff Bound, only six playoff spots remain available: three in the Eastern Conference (Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions) and three in the Western Conference (Central and Pacific divisions).
Breakdown of point percentages
The NHL schedule consists of 82 games, and when aligned with the team tiers, it breaks down into the Kraken playing 27 games against Playoff Bound teams, 35 games against Bubble teams, and 20 games against Tankers. While no game in the NHL is easy, earning wins against Tankers should be less challenging than defeating Playoff Bound teams. As a result, we can expect a higher point percentage from games against Tankers, a moderate percentage from Bubble teams, and a lower percentage from Playoff Bound teams.
These percentages will adjust throughout the season based on whether the Kraken are ahead of or behind their projected pace. For now, my projected point percentages for the Kraken break down as follows:
There are 164 possible points available in a full season (two points per game across 82 games). To reach 95 points, the Kraken will need to maintain a .579 points percentage. The purpose of these tiers is to highlight the quality of the opponents and to illustrate that losses are expected throughout the season. But Seattle should win far more often than it loses against Tanker teams and will still need to win a good portion of its games against Playoff Bound teams.
October targets
The regular season has begun with the Seattle Kraken facing tough competition right out of the gate. They have 11 games scheduled in October, with six at home and five on the road, and five of those games are against Playoff Bound teams. With only two games against Tankers, the Kraken will need to earn points against high-quality opponents to stay on pace. To stay on pace for their goal of 95 points for the season, they need to target 12 points out of a possible 22 in October.
Through three games, the Kraken are 1-2-0, having earned two points. With eight games remaining and 16 points possible, they need to secure 10 more points to stay on track for 95 points.
- Playoff Bound – The Kraken have four games remaining against Playoff Bound teams, with a target of four points. Their opponents are the Colorado Avalanche (Oct. 22), Winnipeg Jets (Oct. 24), Carolina Hurricanes (Oct. 26), and Toronto Maple Leafs (Oct. 31).
- Bubble – There are two games remaining against Bubble teams, with a target of three points against these teams. The Kraken need at least one win, but an overtime or shootout loss would suffice for the second game. The matchups are against the Nashville Predators (Oct. 15) and the Philadelphia Flyers (Oct. 17), who now feature rookie phenom Matvei Michkov.
- Tankers – The Kraken face the Calgary Flames (Oct. 19) and Montreal Canadiens (Oct. 29), both currently in the Tankers category, though bordering on Bubble status. The target for these games is also three points.
Tracking progress throughout the season
We’ll be tracking the Kraken’s progress toward 95 points each month and analyzing how they perform against each tier. It’s still early, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism with the new additions to the roster.
One notable stretch to watch begins just past the mid-point of the season, running from Jan. 18 until the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off (see more about the event here). During this stretch, the Kraken play 11 games, nine of which are at home. Six of those games are against Pacific Division rivals, and five are against Tankers. This could be a pivotal moment when the Kraken’s playoff picture becomes much clearer.
If you have any questions, thoughts, or suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments below, or reach out to me on the X @blaizg.