November has arrived, marking time for an update on the Strive for 95 points target. The 95-point benchmark carries weight: over the last 10 full NHL seasons, teams reaching 95 points have qualified for the playoffs 80 percent of the time. With the Kraken aiming for a playoff return, we’ll track their journey to 95 points throughout the season. Alongside monitoring their standings, we at Sound Of Hockey have also sorted teams into three tiers: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers.
October harvest
The Kraken’s target for October was 12 points, and they came close with an even 5-5-1 record, securing 11 points. Here’s how they performed against each team tier:
- Playoff Bound (0-4-1): This is the most concerning area, as the Kraken only managed to earn one point in five games against Playoff Bound teams. They scored just seven goals across these matchups.
- Bubble (3-1-0): Securing six points against Bubble teams is a positive sign. The only loss came on Opening Day to the St. Louis Blues in a game that could have gone the Kraken’s way.
- Tankers (2-0-0): These should be more straightforward games, and the Kraken delivered, outscoring this tier by a combined total of 10-3.
Goaltending
Both goalies have had solid starts to the season. Joey Daccord has been a standout at times, earning seven starts, while Philipp Grubauer, who has played four games, has also performed well. Daccord finished off October starting four straight games.
It’s worth noting that save percentage, while informative, doesn’t tell the whole story. Grubauer didn’t play against Tanker teams, where Daccord excelled. Grubauer faced an average of 24.25 shots per game, while Daccord faced 32.28, which affects their save percentages. Overall, both goalies played well, though Daccord, fresh off his five-year, $5 million extension, had the hotter hand in October.
Goal scoring
The Kraken have netted 36 goals this season, averaging 3.27 goals per game—a figure that looks promising at first glance. However, a closer look shows that 21 of those goals came in just three games against the Nashville Predators, Philadelphia Flyers, and Montreal Canadiens. This means the remaining eight games yielded only 15 goals, for an average of 1.88 goals per game. Finding a way to score more consistently will be key for the Kraken moving forward.
Team tiers – November
Each month, team tiers will be adjusted as the season unfolds. There will be movement between tiers, but with just one month into this young NHL season, no team’s fate is clear yet. For November, only one team has shifted tiers: the Philadelphia Flyers have dropped to the Tankers tier due to ongoing questions about goaltending.
Current point percentages:
We’re also monitoring a few teams that could shift tiers but are staying put for now.
- Calgary Flames – After a strong 4-0 start, the Kraken beat the Flames in OT. Calgary then finished the month 1-4-1. With their recent struggles, they remain in the Tankers tier.
- Colorado Avalanche – They stumbled early, with Alexandar Georgiev posting a dismal .822 save percentage. Justus Annunen has stepped in, going 4-0 in his starts and helping to stabilize the team. With injuries piling up, however, they could drop to the Bubble tier if they can’t steady things in November.
- Nashville Predators – Following the free agent signings of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, the Predators have underperformed expectations, finishing October with just seven points. While they sit four points shy of a playoff spot, the situation is challenging but not yet dire.
- Vegas Golden Knights – Vegas leads the league in goals scored with 50 through 11 games. However, I’m not fully convinced by this burst in scoring just yet, so I will consider November a prove-it month. If they continue to pile up the wins, moving to the Playoff Bound tier could be on the horizon for the Golden Knights.
November rain
With November rain also brings an easier schedule, and the Kraken will enjoy their longest home stand of the season with a six-game stretch in this month. First, they must finish their current road trip, with stops in Ottawa, Boston, and Colorado. After falling one point off the pace in October, their target for November is 18 points in 14 games. The Kraken will encounter two sets of back-to-back games—one at the start of the month and another at the end. Here’s the breakdown of tiers for this month.
- Playoff Bound – The Kraken have three games against this tier, with a target of three points. Two of these matchups will occur during the first week of the month, with Seattle wrapping up its road trip against the Boston Bruins and the Colorado Avalanche. The final game against this tier will be against the New York Rangers during the Kraken’s home stand.
- Bubble – The Ottawa Senators, Vegas Golden Knights, New York Islanders, Nashville Predators, and Los Angeles Kings comprise the five Bubble games this month. The target for the Kraken is six points.
- Tankers – November presents the busiest month for the Tanker tier. The Kraken will play six games against four different teams, aiming for nine points to stay on pace, with the potential to get ahead. The teams include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks (two games), and San Jose Sharks (two games). The Kraken will close out the month with two sets of home-and-home games against the Ducks and Sharks.
With the first leg of back-to-back games starting in Ottawa on Saturday, expect to see Grubauer get the start in net, with Daccord taking the second leg of the back-to-back in his hometown of Boston on Nov. 3.
Wrapping up
Overall, the Kraken have had one of their best starts to the season. Only the 2022-23 season edged them out with 12 points compared to 11 points this season. They have shown solid goaltending and flashes of scoring, providing a strong foundation to build upon. The coaching staff continues to tweak the offensive lines to unlock their full potential, but only the top line of captain Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers, and Jared McCann has found consistent success. Unlocking scoring threats in two more lines will be key to reaching the playoffs.
The Kraken have also had to contend with the injury of Vince Dunn, which can be read about on Sound Of Hockey by clicking here. Since Dunn was placed on long-term injured reserve, the Kraken have gone 2-3-1—not bad, but not great either—especially considering that four of those games were against the Playoff Bound tier. There is no word yet on a potential return date for Dunn, but the earliest he could return is for the Nov. 12 game against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
We will continue to track the Kraken’s progress monthly throughout the season. If you have any questions, thoughts, or suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments below or reach out to me on X @blaizg.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Tampa Bay is a bubble team, while Boston is playoff bound?
I think maybe Minnesota should be in consideration as a “playoff bound” team. Their .800 points percentage is second only to Winnipeg in the entire league… and they look for real.
Also, I’m no math wiz… but facing less shots explains his save percentage how? Maybe I’m missing something here, but I think more shots would just mean more goals. Additionally, the Kraken have only carried the xG% in four games this season… and Grubauer started three of those. In his only win this season… he gave up four goals against with a 2.41 expected.
Go Kraken!!!
That’s how math work. If the team is good at limiting chances, inherently your save % goes down. This is why it’s such a shit stats and y’all need to stop using it
Again, the backflips SOH does to say that Grubauer is actually not atrocious is still amazing to see in YEAR FOUR. He literally has a .878 sv%!! In what context can that be considered anything better than bad?? Given he hasn’t played any tanker teams, maybe one could say he has played “okay” against the competition (though I wouldn’t buy it), but to go so far as to say that he has “performed well”???? Especially when, as you say, he has faced fewer shots and fewer xG/game overall but still has a sub-.880 sv%?? Sheesh!
All of the rankings are where I ranked them at the start of the season, and I did not want to move them around too much month to month. When I have seen 2 months of consistency, I will move more teams around.
I guess I should have said Minnesota should be “monitored” along with Calgary, Colorado, Nashville, and Vegas…
Yep, I am monitoring all of them. The ones listed are teams we played last month or will play this month.
We played Minnesota
You are correct, you passed the test. I will take a closer look at Minnesota.
Love this! Clear and easy to comprehend without getting overly complicated citing obscure calculations that can fluctuate wildly early in the season.
Seeing more shots makes your save percentage go down? Is there any evidence for that? You state it like it’s just a given. I’ve actually heard broadcasters claim the opposite, although that’s probably BS too.
I was hinting the other way. Grubauer has a lower save percentage and lower shots against. The part I did not mention was that Daccord’s and Grubauer’s GAA has been similar so far this season. If goalies have a similar GAAs, but less shots, they will have a lower sv%.
Mainly just highlighting that SV% is not a cut and dry stat.
Hope this helps.
Oh somehow I misread that. Regardless, your efforts to paint grubauer as anything but a low-end backup goalie are valiant, I will say that. He is just not “playing well” by any NHL standard.
Also regardless, this is not a playoff team.
Yeah we get it. You have a hate boner for Gru and despite him playing well to start the season you’re going to continue to hate but. Saying he’s a low level back up is next level ignorant. It’s fascinating to watch
Found Grubauer’s mom!
I agree, save percentage is not a cut and dry stat, and goals against is even less so. Again, I’m not a math wiz, so help me out here. If I understand what you’re saying, Grubauer is playing fine – just as well as Joey – because he’s allowing about the same number of goals per game. The fact that he’s doing that facing considerably less shots really doesn’t matter?
These are obviously very small samples… but a couple things jump out at me when I look at the numbers.
In his first four starts, in three of those the Kraken have trailed going into the third period. In those three third periods, opponents have taken a total – all situations – 16 shots on goal. That’s 16 shots over the span of an entire game. To Gru’s credit, he has a shutout against those 16 shots.
His lone win of the season is also the only one of his starts the Kraken have gone into the third period leading – up on the Flyers 5-2. Gru gave up the first two of the period on nine shots to draw Philadelphia within one. A late wrister by Bjorkstrand fortunately secured the win.
To the Kraken’s credit, that was one of only two games their goalies have given up four goals in regulation this season against some pretty high-powered offenses, and they won both. The other being the Wild game where they went into the third tied 2-2, and even though Joey gave up two more, the team went blow-for-blow and won it in overtime.
Adding in the Ottawa game there are some more similarities. I’m not saying the loss was on the goaltending here, I’m trying to dig into the numbers we’re talking about. Again, the Kraken go into the third trailing 2-0 and again Grubauer throws a shutout… against six shots on goal. Coincidentally, and contrary to the “more shots” theory, the only two games where his save percentage has been above .900 are the two games where he’s faced the fewest shots – last night a season low 22 for him and against Dallas, 23.
I would assume score affect is likely the most significant reason Grubauer’s GAA is similar to Joey’s and not a lack of shots against. I think it’s also a big factor in why he doesn’t seem to get “run support”. It’s harder to score when you’re playing from behind and with the exception of the opener – where Grubauer surrendered three goals in a-minute-fifty-five in the second – he has allowed the first goal of the game, even in the win over the Flyers.
Save percentage and goals against average are not cut and dry and they certainly don’t tell the whole story… especially in just five starts… but his 2.89 and .886 start is pretty consistent with his 2.98 and .884 in his previous 130 starts.
Can we please stop trying to invent explanations and just accept that – for whatever reason – he is what he is… a slightly below average NHL goalie.
Go Kraken!!!
“a slightly below average NHL goalie.”
Not sure I agree with your adjective there.
Here is PG’s rankings the last three seasons on SV% compared to other NHL goalies playing at least 20 games:
2021-22: 58 of 61
2022-23: 46 of 62
2023-24: 45 of 65
This season he is again 45th. So I would delete the word “slightly” and same is he is a below average NHL goalie. And if one considers SV% as a factor of his cap AAV, he has to be, I would expect without calculating, probably at the bottom of the league.
The good news is that Nikke Kokko looked good last night, so Joey’s potential backup for the 2025-26 season may arrive just in time.
It’s funny how many hops you had to jump through to deny reality. Gru has been playing well this season. Gru faced harder opponents and had more games with Dunn. That requires all of two sentences to debunk. You really need to stop irrationally hating this guy.
I guess I could have just said “score affect” and left it at that in response to the “more shots/GAA” theory… but I felt it was worth the effort to actually point out why I was proposing that. Otherwise, people might think I’m irrationally hating this guy.
I’m not sure how to reply to the “Gru is playing well this season” analysis. Frankly, I’m indifferent to his play anymore, but I get a little weary of the excuses and explanations. The “more shots” thing sounds like just the latest.
*whispers* grubis been perfectly serviceable.
At some point I would love to see people not have knee jerk reactions to a writer giving Grubi faint praise by contextualizing his performances and focus on the big problem this team has: majorly underperforming forward groups and a D core that seems to go hard then fall asleep at very bad times.
The Grubi blaming is not only boring, it’s totally misplaced. If we cut him tomorrow *nothing* about this team would be any different.
I agree he’s been perfectly serviceable. I also think it’s likely what HuhDawg said below probably has some merit and Joey starting four in a row may be injury related… even if it’s just caution.
I also agree that if we cut him tomorrow *nothing* about this team would change. Before the season started I posted that I believe Grubauer is what he is, a slightly below average NHL goalie and that I was done talking about him. The reason I said that is because – again – I agree, the Grubauer blaming is boring… and it’s gotten kind of nasty too… on both sides.
I don’t think my long discourse was a “knee jerk reaction” to the writers “faint praise” and my final conclusion was consistent with “serviceable”. What I was “reacting” to was – I believe – a somewhat nefarious use of numbers.
At some point I would love to see people not make excuses for Grubauer being what he is – serviceable – and focus on the problems this team has.
On the problems… I’m gonna wait until the end of the next homestand. The final game – against Nashville – will be their 20th.
Oh completely agree there. Grubauer sucking is only one part of the problem, and thankfully a much smaller part now that Daccord has rightfully gotten the majority of the starts. The forward corps looks frankly old and tired. Wright, who is famously not old, has been invisible. Burakovsky, also not yet old, looks like Beniers last year, falling down constantly, but he is also a turnover machine. The only consistently good line is McCann-Beniers-Eberle, and that’s a second line on any cup contender. This team can pile on goals against really bad clubs but seem to crumble when playing even mediocre ones (and Blaze showed that above). It’s non-competitive and worse, it’s boring as hell to watch.
“Grubauer didn’t play against Tanker teams, where Daccord excelled. Grubauer faced an average of 24.25 shots per game, while Daccord faced 32.28, which affects their save percentages.”
Daryl – is this the “more shots” statement you’re talking about? I keep re-reading the article and this is the only place I’m seeing anything related to what you’re saying, but I don’t see any directionality in Blaiz’s statement here. In fact in seems pretty mundane but not sure if I missed something.
Not exactly sure what you mean by “directionality”.
What I gathered from reading the article was that both goalies are “off to solid starts” and that if you’re looking at that abysmal .886 save percentage Grubauer is sporting, it’s because of the lower shot volume.
Subsequently, in a response, Blaze wrote:
Daccord’s and Grubauer’s GAA has been similar so far this season. If goalies have a similar GAAs, but less shots, they will have a lower sv%.
Mainly just highlighting that SV% is not a cut and dry stat.
I agree 100% that SV% is not a “cut and dry stat” – and neither is goals against – but before I toss it out I’m gonna be curious why. The article seemed to imply Grubauer’s low SV% was somehow due to the low shot volume and in the post this was furthered by the observation of the similar GAAs. To me, the obvious assumption would be if they had the same shots against, they’d probably still each have the same SV% but the GAA would separate. That’s doesn’t seem to be the conclusion Blaze draws.
Now, if you’re going to say Grubauer is having a solid start – and full disclosure, I think it’s been fine – you’re going to have to explain that save percentage… and maybe you can do that. Simply pointing at his GAA doesn’t cut it for me, but it does make me wonder – why is his goals against average similar to his partner’s but his save percentage AND volume are so much lower?
First, the Tanker teams part… in his seven starts Joey has faced a grand total of two Tanker teams – Calgary and Montreal – and he won both games giving up a total of three goals on 50 shots for a .940 SV%. Bravo! The Flyers are the only Tanker team Grubauer has matched up against in his five starts and he also got the win allowing a season worst four goals against on 25 shots and another season worst .840 SV%.
I’m a little dubious it’s simply the “quality of opponents”.
So without rehashing the entire post, I was trying to point out I believe score affect looks – to me – like it could largely explain the low shot volume and it may very well be the GAA that you can disregard. Either way, simply saying, “both goalies are off to a solid start” and then dismissing the awful save percentage so clumsily caught my attention. Belive it or not, my take on this hasn’t been to bash Grubauer. I simply wanted point out the issues I have with some of the notions that were floated and to explore an actual explanation for the disparity in the numbers.
Hi Daryl,
I guess I just interpreted this as a basic math problem: If goalie A allows 2.5 goals per game, and faces 20 shots per game, they will have a lower save percentage than goalie B who also allows 2.5 goals per game, but faces 30 shots. I guess that’s what I mean by directionality, it doesn’t seem like Blaiz is saying anything specific about Grubauer, just about how SV% is calculated here, and since they both let in about the same number of shots, but Grubauer faces fewer shots, that’s obviously why his SV% is lower. What GAA says nothing about is the quality of the shots they face.
I think it’s probably more useful to look at Goals Saved Above Expected/60 for a better comparison (Joey has a very slight edge, but they are similar). But save percentage really should be thrown out as a primary analytic tool for goalies – the analytics community as a whole (not just Blaiz) has been pleading for people to do this for years.
I think you have a point regarding score effects – it’s obviously harder to play from behind in the league. BUT I think it’s equally fair to point out that the main reason they get scored on first isn’t primarily because Grubauer is porous, but because the offense sucks.
Hi Turbo,
I also think it’s basic math… right up until you ask why.
“Grubauer faces fewer shots, that’s obviously why his SV% is lower.”
That totally makes sense… except it doesn’t actually explain WHY his SV% is lower. You might as well be saying his save percentage is lower because he let’s in more goals per shot. Also true, but it doesn’t explain much and it doesn’t really tell you why.
I think the question, “why does he face fewer shots?” is probably the one to be asked and can probably be answered by looking at score affect. For all of it’s shortcomings, save percentage does have performance correlations overall and so arbitrarily dismissing it with selective math seems like an iffy approach. For what it’s worth, I think Grubauer has been better than that number, but I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say “solid”.
On GSAx… I refer to it all the time, but if you think save percentage has problems… oh boy! Just yesterday Dimitri Filopovic on the Hockey PODcast pointed out that NST and MoneyPuck both have the Canucks around 5th in xGA… and SportLogic has them at 28th. For all of it’s failures, save percentage is the same no matter where you look.
I’m not sure what to make of the first goal thing. If I was going to tell a “story” about the goaltending I would say, it seems like maybe the Kraken play a different game in front of Grubauer than they do Joey and the lower shots against and the lower scoring are a product of that… and maybe giving up that first goal is too… but that’s just a thought.
I will say this… goaltending is not THE issue and I can’t wait until they get to 20 games.
Joey got those starts because he was hurt. Cmon guys
I’m at a loss to how anyone can say that Grubauer has been playing well, a very low bar has to be set for that to be realistic. He has not been horrible this season but he has not played well.
In regards to the shots, Blaiz have you given any thought as to why Daccord has been facing more shots? Typically I seem to notice when a team has a lead they tend to play a more defensive system and take less shots. Grubauer tends to let goals in earlier in the game compared to Daccord, this would definitely account for more shots on goal throughout the game. I’d love to see you dig into this and show us some stats.
Daccord has played in three OT games AND faced Carolina who is known for high shot volume, which is why it’s more helpful to look at GAA/60 which puts Daccord at 0.313 and -0.041. You may notice that there is not a massive difference between the two, which is why I think the Grubi vs. Joey debate is just totally silly and misplaced.
Joey’s been better to start, just not much better. Fortunately both goalies have put us in a position to win almost every one of their starts, it’s the offense that has let us down.
What all the PG apologists keep overlooking is not whether they are close in whatever goalie statistic you want to throw out.
The issue is simply that PG is paid like a starter and performs like a backup and Joey is still paid like a backup and performs like a starter.
If they perform similarly, then on a team so cash-strapped they don’t have a 13F, the one not living up to his contract should have it terminated. Therefore, the expected buy out next summer.
Regarding the non-goalie issues, I mentioned before the season started that among the keys to doing well this year included our 3 offensive D (Dunn, Montour, Evans) not getting injured and Beniers returning to his year 1 form. As neither of these has held true so far, the team’s performance is no surprise. I wait for Dunn’s return and very hopefully, Matty’s as well. Today would be a nice time for the latter to emerge.
Wow what a debacle this weekend. 1 goal in 3 games. What a waste of a good Gru start.