The Kraken split a pair of games over the last week: a solid but not dominant 3-0 win against Nashville and a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday afternoon. If you had asked me last week whether I would be happy with a split in those two games, I would have said yes. However, there’s something about that Kings game that leaves me disappointed. It was an excellent benchmark to assess how good this Kraken team really is, especially after appearing to turn the corner with a 5-1-0 homestand.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say the Kraken played poorly, but they might not be good enough to compete with teams like the Kings in the standings for the entirety of the season. I say this knowing full well that they beat the top team in the division, the Vegas Golden Knights, just two weeks ago. Maybe it’s a bit of recency bias, but the lackluster performance on Saturday leaves me questioning where this team is headed. With four games against weaker opponents this week, we might not have a clearer answer until the Kraken roll through their New York swing, with a Carolina appetizer.
Do the Seattle Kraken have a scoring problem?
As the Kraken struggled to generate any legitimate scoring chances against the Kings on Saturday, I started to realize there might be a serious goal-scoring issue that feels eerily similar to last season’s team. The Kraken are averaging 2.8 goals per game, which is lower than at this point last season. Over the last 10 games, they are averaging just 2.3 goals per game—the fourth lowest in the league. The absence of Vince Dunn and now Jordan Eberle certainly doesn’t help, but that can’t be the only factor dragging down the team’s scoring. Let’s take a closer look.
Shots and shooting percentage
To better understand the scoring challenges this team faces, let’s examine their shot volume per game and shooting percentage to determine whether it’s a volume issue, a quality issue, or both.
It turns out it’s a bit of both. The Kraken have one of the lowest shooting percentages in the league and rank in the bottom third in shots on goal. Of course, not all shots are created equal, so to assess this further, we need to consider shot quality.
Shot quality
To evaluate shot quality, I analyzed the NaturalStatTrick.com team game logs, focusing on the average number of high-, medium-, and low-danger shots per game.
The Kraken rank sixth lowest in high-danger shots per game and second lowest in medium-danger shots. This mix of lower-quality shot attempts likely contributes to their poor shooting percentage. Unfortunately, I don’t have any specific suggestions or solutions for generating more high-danger chances, but hopefully, the team figures something out soon.
Other musings
- Expect to hear a lot about the milestone of U.S. Thanksgiving in the NHL. Historically, around 80 percent of the teams in a playoff spot at U.S. Thanksgiving end up making the playoffs. Unfortunately, that didn’t help the Kraken last season, as they were in a playoff spot at that time but didn’t make it to the postseason.
- I love the Thanksgiving week schedule, especially with two home-and-home sets against division rivals.
- Speaking of U.S. Thanksgiving—without cheating—five Americans have played for the Seattle Kraken this season. Can you name them?
- The Kraken’s power play has been the worst in the league over their last 10 games.
- Like many of the keyboard coaches on the internet, I think it’s time for Shane Wright to return to the lineup.
- Daniel Sprong’s 18 minutes and 36 seconds against the Kings marked the most ice time he has played in a single game during his 86 appearances for the Kraken.
- The penalty kill has also been struggling lately, operating at 75 percent compared to the league average of 80 percent.
- Following college hockey out west is a challenge, but did you catch Arizona State’s men’s hockey team sweeping top-ranked Denver in Denver this weekend? Denver had a 21-game winning streak coming into the series. I’ve always believed ASU could become a college hockey powerhouse someday.
- The World Junior Championship camp rosters should be announced in the first week of December for the tournament starting later that month. The Kraken could have up to seven players invited to various camp rosters.
- As many of you know, Joe Thornton’s number was retired by the San Jose Sharks over the weekend. I’ve always been a huge “Jumbo” fan. The weekend was filled with great Thornton stories, but none better than the one shared by his former teammate, Doug Murray. I’ve always believed the best way to evaluate an athlete’s character is by their actions when no one is looking. Thanks to Doug for sharing that story.
Player performances
Alexander Wennberg – The former Seattle Kraken center has tallied two goals and three assists over his last four games with the San Jose Sharks. This Saturday will mark Wennberg’s first game back at Climate Pledge Arena.
Joey Daccord – Joey is having an outstanding season, posting a 4-1-0 record with a .945 save percentage over his last five starts.
Carson Rehkopf – The 2023 second-round Kraken draft pick recorded a hat trick over the weekend. Expect to see him on the Canadian World Junior team.
THAT'S A HAT-TRICK FOR REHKOPF!🤩@SeattleKraken prospect Carson Rehkopf makes it three Sunday afternoon, all off of passes from #NHLDraft eligible Porter Martone!🐟🔥#OHL | @CHLHockey | #SeaKraken | @OHLSteelheads pic.twitter.com/pZIFvW4Z7O
— Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) November 24, 2024
Goal of the week
Former Coachella Valley Firebird, Cameron Hughes scored this little beauty for his new team, the Texas Stars.
HOLY MOLY CAMERON HUGHES 😱
What a way to win it in OT for the @TexasStars!!@TheAHL | #AHL #TXStars #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/CkDWuLgwbx— FloHockey (@FloHockey) November 24, 2024
The week ahead
We circled this week on the schedule as soon as it was released, with four division games against two of the weaker teams. It’s an excellent opportunity to gain ground in the standings, but neither the Anaheim Ducks nor the San Jose Sharks should be taken lightly. Both teams have been playing better recently, and in the NHL, any team can beat any team on any given night.
Anything less than four points out of a possible eight would be a major disappointment, but the target should be six. It’s crucial to bank as many points as possible now because December features the toughest stretch of games the Kraken will face this season.
The recency bias is noted, but the real issue is the data you showed re:shot quality. It seems like good defensively structured teams with strong forechecks (ie pretty much any playoff team) can very easily strangle the Kraken offense. Their D—>O transition is hampered by Dunn’s absence, and their general absence of top talent players who force the other team into a more prevent structure. I’m with you John…I have no idea how they fix this problem, other than getting more people to the net and praying for some greasy rebound goals.
Another note on the Sprong interview — I can kinda see where his reputation comes from, just from the interview. Just in the span of 10 minutes, he:
1) acknowledged his “bad locker room” presence, which is unusual for hockey players to even pay attention to that stuff.
2) called out the Red Wings for replacing him with rookies. He noted it’s “not working out” because they aren’t scoring.
3) explicitly said his poor first two games don’t count with the Kraken cause he didn’t practice with the team.
4) thinks he’s a 30 goal scorer in the right situation.
I don’t think any of these individual things are bad per se, but they seem to paint a picture of a player who is perhaps overly confident, is willing to blame outside circumstances for his failures, and calls out former teams for not seeing how awesome he is. Maybe I’m generalizing too much, but at the very least, he’s just way more frank and honest than the typical cliche machine hockey player. That alone could sully his reputation. I don’t really care about this either way, as long as he puts the puck in the net.
nothing more discouraging than seeing that the most ‘high danger shots’ they have taken all season was on opening night. Nothing close since. (I looked it up since your comment triggered me to look at the detail by game.
4 points should be a major disappointment.
Agree… even two wins, a loss, and an overtime loss (5 points) would be a major letdown to me. I’ve been very patient so far this season, but these games are, to me, pivotal. If they can’t separate from these two teams, it’s hard to have much faith in either the players or the staff. I also expect Grubauer to get a start this week… and he’s going to have to be better.
Of the 53 goalies with seven or more appearances this season, Gru is 46th in shots against per 60; nonetheless, his 3.11 GAA is 41st. He’s facing fewer shots and giving up more goals. I don’t want to hear about run support. It seems maybe the .881 save percentage wasn’t such a myth after all.
Go Kraken!!!
After seeing Celebrini, Smith and Eklund, plus now Askarov play yesterday, I would not assume the Sharks games are a walkover. And the Ducks are going to come to town pissed about the Carlsson hit, so that is going to be tough sledding as well. And remember PG has to play at least one if not two of the games. Yikes!
Even if the Kraken do eke out say 4 or 5 points from these three upcoming games, it may just be fool’s gold. After that comes many strong teams and unless Dunn is back and really flying and a few of the Fs start scoring more regularly, Joey’s heroics may not be enough.
They’re having the same season as last year down to bringing in a secondary scorer (Sprong for Tatar) and the coach jerking around a young player’s minutes. Except that now they may be a non playoff team with a Vezina candidate. Francis can’t be long for this team. Hopefully they get rid of him before he does something monumentally stupid like extending Gourde and Taney
Gourde and Tanev might be two of the best players on the team. Why would Francis be stupid to resign them? Also, it’s way too early to say the Kraken aren’t a playoff team. They are likely trending to improving, unlike, say…Boston…who was trending to getting worse.
In the West… Vancouver has a lot of “issues” right now. What’s up in Edmonton? Is Calgary for real? Last season both Vegas and LA looked like world beaters and they struggled for stretches. I think there’s still room for Seattle to get in.
They’re not going anywhere. Why would you resign mid 30 year olds players who’ve led you to going nowhere. Enough of the endless experiments in mediocre vets
The word from E. Friedman is that they intend on re-signing Gourde. Not sure how this works with having Stephenson and Beniers signed long-term and so many centers in the prospect pipeline (Wright, Catton, Fisker-Molgaard, Loshko, Miettinen, Villeneuve, Josephson).
Yanni… and all those other guys can also play the wing.
Half-a-dozen wingers on this team are up in the next two seasons.
need to push back on that comment. He never said they intend on re-signing him just that they were not willing to trade him.
Dang, I hate it when I have go back to sources. Here is what Friedman just said on 32 Thoughts:
“Yanni Gourde is an interesting one. His production is down, his ice-time is down, but the Kraken organization loves him. Even as things haven’t gone great for him, it hasn’t diminished how they feel. Ultimately, both sides have to agree if this UFA-to-be marriage will continue, but, at this time, there’s no indication of a divorce.”
I don’t read that as anything but wanting to re-sign him but your mileage may vary.
Are you saying you interpret that as re-signing him? It may happen but I think it means that they are not willing to move him at this point in the season. (It also creates some leverage if people think the Kraken really like him.)
Apparently I cannot reply to your directly, as there is no Reply button next to your post, but you know.
“The Kraken organization loves him… it hasn’t diminished how they feel… there’s no indication of a divorce.”
Francis would be dim to not trade Gourde given the high demand for him at TDL from nearly every playoff team. The ONLY reason he would not if they wanted to sign him to another contract. I don’t understand what you are getting at, they don’t trade him and then don’t re-sign him?
I think the “UFA to be marriage” and “no indication of divorce” simply means they do not intend to trade him right now just because he’s going to be a UFA at the end of the season. I don’t think it implies they also intended to resign him necessarily.
If they’re pushing for a playoff spot I could certainly see them hanging onto him and then letting him “walk for nothing” at the end of the season. Not only is this what Francis did during the 100 point season (Soucy), it’s also what Carolina has done several times with pending UFA… and folks seldom call them “dim”.
They may resign him, they may trade him, but nothing I’ve heard from either Friedman or Seravalli has – to me – implied that they’ve indicated their ultimate intent… only that right now they’re not intersted in moving him.
Gourde can play on the wing, too. Other than Wright, none of those guys you mention are anywhere near NHL ready. Certainly not to the level of Gourde or Tanev. Even if we aren’t winning games some of those 2-0 and 2-1 games against the likes of NY and LA, I’m not sure those games would be so close without guys like Tanev and Gourde.
They’re luxury players on a good (playoff) team, not foundational pieces. Keeping the losing score close is not an end goal. Get what you can and move on If only to open up the minutes for the above mentioned young guys.
I think Francis will probably see where the team is ahead of the trade deadline before he makes any decisions on Tanev of Gourde. With Eberle possibly being out the remainder of the season there’s no pressure to move anybody out sooner.
They are two players who don’t look like they are playing beer league hockey. Let’s be honest. They aren’t “luxury players”. They are heart and soul guys.
Compare how they are playing to Larsson, Schwartz and Oleksiak. It’s night and day.
Larsson is a very good defender definitely not a high energy player or an offensive threat but incredibly talented at his roll, that comment is just beyond ridiculous. Sorry Mr G
Apparently it’s hard to find scoring in this league. Dunn and Eberle out definitely doesn’t help The Kraken. As Boist points out, maybe goal scorers like Sprong are (maybe rightfully) a little cocky, especially if that’s the strength of their game and they are constantly being told everyone wants responsible defensive, two-way players. I have a funny feeling Sprong actually fits in fine with our locker room. I don’t think Francis would have brought him back. Now we need him to bury it!!
Hearing the Rangers news that they were considering moving Kreider kind of perked my ears. To me he’s a low risk, high reward type player that knows how to operate in high danger spots and can teach people the same. Obviously we need to drop some salary for 1 1/2 years but I think there’s a lot of fat on the roster to trim right now.
The thing with most of the centers in the org is I always thought most would eventually play wing. So re-signing Gourde doesn’t seem like a blocker to me even if it’s just 2 years. His $5M contract does.
I’d have no problem extending Tanev and Gourde at the right term and cap.
Going back to thanksgiving makes the playoffs… correct me if I’m wrong but I very clearly remember that we were “in the playoffs at thanksgiving last season” but only by a point and had played around three games more than the teams close to us. More or less we weren’t really in a playoff position at thanksgiving last season if I remember correctly… just technically in position.
that is correct. They would get a more legitimate playoff position later in the season, after the winter classic maybe(?)
I actually don’t like that whole “teams in a playoff spot at thanksgiving” thing anyway. There is enough turnover to make it interesting for a lot of teams and we all remember 2018-19 St. Louis Blues.