Most of my podcast listening time comes while walking my two dogs, George and Eddie. A few weeks ago, when the Kraken were 2-0, I found myself listening to a 32 Thoughts episode from Oct. 13 about not overreacting to two games. I don’t remember much from the podcast, but Elliotte Friedman made a statement that made me look at George and Eddie with a quizzical look and think, “Is that true?”
Friedman said that by Nov. 1, teams that are four or more points out of the playoffs only make the postseason 14 percent of the time. I spot-checked this over the last eight full seasons, and while the percentage was slightly higher at 20 percent, the general idea holds true.
Historically, I’ve always used Thanksgiving as a decent checkpoint for playoff projections. Roughly 75 percent of teams in playoff position at that time end up making it. For this analysis, I looked at the last eight full seasons (2015–2024), skipping the two pandemic-shortened ones (2019–20 and 2020–21).
Instead of focusing on teams that missed, I analyzed how clubs in playoff position fared using Halloween, not Thanksgiving, as the checkpoint. To go a layer deeper, I broke down standings by position—first, second, or third in the division, and the first or second wild card slots.
Thanksgiving
The tricky thing about Thanksgiving is its variability. It falls on the fourth Thursday of November, meaning it can land anywhere between Nov. 22 and Nov. 28. That variability means teams have played anywhere from 18 to 25 games by then, though most have around 20.
Across the eight seasons studied, 76.6 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving made the postseason. Here’s how that breaks down by standings position:
The first chart may be a bit dense at first glance. It shows, from left to right, how often teams in each divisional or wild card position at Thanksgiving went on to make the playoffs. The final bar in each cluster represents the overall average for that season.
To make it easier to digest, the second chart below simplifies things by showing the average playoff rates for each standings position across all eight seasons:
As expected, standings position matters. Teams in the top two division spots make the playoffs far more often than those in third or wild card positions. In fact, teams in the top two averaged an 89.1 percent playoff rate, 25 percent higher than teams in third or wild card slots. Wild card and third-place teams landed in the 60th percentile, giving them better than even odds to make the postseason.
Halloween
By Halloween, most teams have played between eight and 13 games, with only minor differences in games played. I wanted to see if this much earlier checkpoint could still serve as a gauge for postseason likelihood. My assumption was that it would be too early to draw meaningful conclusion—but the data suggests otherwise.
Teams sitting first, second, or third in their division on Halloween made the playoffs more often than not. Overall, the success rate dropped by just over 10 percent to 66.4 percent, compared with Thanksgiving’s 76.6 percent.
However, the wild card positions were far less stable. Teams in those spots made the postseason less than half the time. What surprised me most was that first- and second-place teams at Halloween made the playoffs 82.8 percent of the time—an impressive number given that only about 10 games have been played.
The takeaway: division leaders at Halloween already have a strong foothold, while wild card teams face much shakier odds. Thanksgiving remains a more reliable indicator, especially for teams hovering around the bubble.
Where the Kraken sit
Seattle wrapped up their October games on Oct. 28, sitting second in the Pacific Division. As other teams played later in the month, Seattle slipped into the final wild card spot. A late rally by Los Angeles on Oct. 30, sparked by two goals from Corey Perry with the goalie pulled, earned the Kings a point and moved the Kraken down in the standings.
On Halloween night, the Anaheim Ducks beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2, bumping Seattle down another spot into the second wild card position.
Still, it’s a solid place to be, especially since the Kraken hold games in hand. Anaheim and Seattle have played only 10 games so far, while the rest of the Western Conference has played 11 or 12. When Seattle made the playoffs in its second season, it also held the second wild card spot on Halloween.
The Kraken have experience fighting from this position and will need to stay sharp heading into November, when the strength of their schedule softens a bit.
Based on Halloween data, the Kraken have a 66.4 percent chance to hang on to a playoff spot. They’ll look to improve those odds by Thanksgiving as they continue their homestand against the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks.
As requested in the comments adding a picture of Eddie and George.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
The charts are nice and everything, but where are the pictures of your dogs?
Good call out, I have added a picture of Eddie and George.
I love this. It shows how the Kraken are going to have to play at the same pace or better to make the playoffs. We have so many players injured that are critical to than and the thing that rings in my head is how some players are out of sync after returning from injury and it affects the balance of the teams structure. I worry about this and when it happens, the team must make up for lost points.. This probably the hardest part of Lanes job. I already bought a ticket for the Lane train and I am riding it all the way until the end.
All aboard the Lane Train!
Let’s Go Kraken!!!
Very nice article as always.
The early section of your games are very important and can definitely build confidence moving forward, not to mention the crucial points that you accumulate.
I’m not completely convinced that this year’s Kraken are for real though, most of our wins have come from outstanding goaltending. I feel for this team we need a larger sample size. It was impressive to see the Kraken come back last game and grab a point when Joey wasn’t at his best.
We’re getting those wins with an entire O line not playing and two primary scorers. That also has to be factored in.
I think strength of schedule needs to be factored in. Looking at what teams will be good this year, that was a brutal stretch.
“Based on Halloween data, the Kraken have a 66.4 percent chance to hang on to a playoff spot.”
I’m sorry, I must not understand your analysis. Isn’t the data you’re looking at from the last 8 full seasons saying teams in the Kraken’s position at Halloween (WC2) have historically only made the playoffs 31.3% of the time (i.e., 68.7% of WC2 teams at Halloween end up not making the playoffs)? The 66.4% is boosted by teams in the top spots who historically have a much higher hit rate of making the playoffs?
That said, either way it feels to me like we’re still in “small sample” territory and need more games to know what we have here. How will teams adjust to the new structure Lambert is using? How will the team look once injured players are back (or heaven forbid, more injuries occur)? Too soon to tell.
You are correct it is the 31.3 territory. On 10/28 we were 2nd in the division, which is 75% territory. I used the average of all teams made the playoffs because, they have games in hand and had a harder schedule.