Now that Thanksgiving has passed, we can finally, confidently, and with absolutely no doubt declare who will make the playoffs. Just kidding, but historically about 75 percent of teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving go on to the postseason, so the odds are in those teams’ favor.
Last month we reviewed teams in playoff position on Halloween to see if an earlier date could serve as an indicator of playoff contention.
Here is a breakdown of how each standings position fares in reaching the postseason at Thanksgiving.
As expected, teams in first and second place in their division fare better, but with more than 60 percent success from wild card teams and third-place teams, these spots still reach the playoffs more often than not.
Here is how the playoff picture looks at the Thanksgiving checkpoint.
Kraken update on playoff position
The Kraken improved their standing from the last wild card spot at Halloween to third in the Pacific Division on Thanksgiving.
It may have been easy to write off their strong start in October, but Seattle has continued to accrue points by playing tight, defensive games. Because of this, they are tied for eighth in the NHL with 28 points. Their new defensive identity has made them a tough team to score against, allowing 2.57 goals per game, second only to the Colorado Avalanche at 2.09.
Over the last eight full NHL seasons, teams sitting in third place in their division at this juncture have made the playoffs 62.5 percent of the time.
On Thanksgiving Eve, the Kraken were holding second place but fell to the Dallas Stars. Vegas gained a point in a shootout loss to Ottawa, and both Seattle and Vegas now sit at 28 points. Vegas holds the tiebreaker with nine regulation wins compared with Seattle’s seven. Historically, second place in the division fares best, making the playoffs 90.6 percent of the time.
Standings differences since Halloween
There were five teams in playoff position at Halloween that now sit outside the picture: the Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Winnipeg Jets. That means 68.8 percent (11 of 16) of teams in position on Halloween remain in position at Thanksgiving. This roughly matches the Halloween historical success rate of 66.4 percent, which surprised me.
Crowded standings
With about 75 percent of the season remaining, no playoff spot is secure. While Thanksgiving can serve as an indicator, it is important to examine other factors. As John Barr pointed out in his 10 for 10 series, the standings are crowded this year.
In the Eastern Conference, the standings are extremely tight, with every team within five points of a playoff spot. Four teams are tied for the final wild card spot, so the playoff picture can shift any night.
In the Western Conference, the standings are starting to separate, but five teams remain within five points of a playoff spot. The Avalanche, with a league-leading 39 points, are pulling away. They have one regulation loss this season and are riding a 10-game win streak.
In the Pacific Division, the top four teams are bunched up. The Anaheim Ducks (yes, the Ducks) lead with 29 points. Vegas, Seattle, and Los Angeles are even at 28, with tiebreakers needed to sort them. Vegas holds the edge in regulation wins, while Seattle holds a slight advantage over LA in regulation and overtime wins.
Overtime games
This season, fans have noticed the Kraken going to overtime more often, and they are right. Seattle has appeared in 10 overtime games through 23 contests (43.5 percent). Before this season, they went to overtime in 21 percent of regular-season games. This big jump is most likely tied to their defensive style, which has resulted in low-scoring games.
Although the Kraken are tied for first in OT appearances with 10, the entire league is seeing more overtime games. The NHL is at 28 percent of games needing extra time, a six percent increase over the last eight full seasons. The Pacific Division leads the charge with 34.2 percent. Eight NHL teams have nine or more OT games, and five of them are in the Pacific Division.
The high number of OT appearances has both helped and hurt Seattle. The drawback appears in regulation wins, where they have seven, tied with LA for the lowest among playoff-position teams. This could matter later, as regulation wins are the top tiebreaker.
On the positive side, Seattle has banked 14 points in their 10 OT games. They are 4-3 in 3-on-3 overtime but winless in shootouts, dropping all three. It is easy to get frustrated by shootouts, but they have no bearing in the playoffs aside from the extra standings point. Even with no shootout wins, Seattle sits just one win below .500 in OT and SO games.
The bigger indicator of playoff success is regulation wins. For example, in Seattle’s only playoff appearance, they entered as the first wild card and faced the heavily favored Avalanche. Even though Colorado won the Central Division, Seattle had more regulation wins (37 to 36). It was a closer matchup than many realized, and the Kraken knocked out the defending Stanley Cup champions in seven games.
The takeaway: do not get hung up on OT or SO results. Take the point and move on. Seattle’s results in extra-time games should even out as the season progresses, and the steady stream of loser points should keep them in the race just as it has through the first quarter of the season.
Wrapping up
The Kraken still have work to do, but they are in a better position than many preseason rankings predicted. They have continued to find success despite injuries and inconsistent scoring. Seattle is a hard team to play against, and its experience in close games should help if (or when) the Kraken return to the playoffs. That is especially true in playoff overtime, where play stays at 5-on-5.
Next up is a home-and-home against the Oilers, starting Saturday at Climate Pledge Arena. Edmonton will have a chip on its shoulder after a rough 8-3 loss to the Dallas Stars. This is the second of four matchups this season. Seattle won the first one and held Connor McDavid without a point or shot on net.
What do you think of the Thanksgiving cutoff as an indicator? Leave your comments below.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Not only did McDavid not record a point or a shot on net, for only the sixth time in his career he did not record a shot attempt in that game.
Right now, every game feels like a big game. Isn’t it great.
Go Kraken!!!
Another viewpoint: https://thehockeynews.com/news/latest-news/five-nhl-teams-that-could-defy-the-u-s-thanksgiving-playoff-rule
So given this other viewpoint Chuck, will you be rooting for Edmonton tomorrow?
Daryl, it seems you have been around hockey longer than just the incarnation of the Kraken. That would make you a hockey fan #1 and a Kraken fan #2. That is also what I am and so I root for good hockey first and my team second. I watched the game last night and appreciated the greatness of the top two players in the world (although the Avs might have something to say). I know the Kraken lost to a better team and that does not concern me at all. I want the team playing better hockey to win. Unfortunately, with the roster that Francis built, Lambert has to adopt this style of play to get points out of the team. It is not great regular season hockey, although it may be good playoff hockey. As I have expressed elsewhere, I am concerned that the team cannot keep this up all year and I fear they may end up in the mushy middle outside of a playoff spot, with a 1R pick in the 10-16 range. Does that move the franchise forward? If not, what is the plan? Partly they are addressing the future by giving Catton, OFM, Winterton, Nyman, and Wright NHL minutes. It would be good to see more of that, with other Firebirds getting an NHL chance in the second half of the season, after they trade the UFAs at TDL. However, that may not be enough to turn the ship around, as do any of the prospects at any level strike you as first line or first pairing players? That is what the Kraken are missing and other franchises have found that through being really bad for a few seasons and then drafting well. That may be the only way forward, as last night showed again, superior talent wins games in the NHL.
No Chuck, I root for my team first.
I’m not on here to pretend reading a bunch of pundits gives me some actual insight into the mechanics building a winning hockey franchise. You don’t need to keep explaining how tanking works… we all get it. It’s very simple, and by simple I mean simplistic. Just explaining the whole thing over and over again isn’t, to me, persuasive. I will answer your questions with a couple question… do you think icing a roster that’s built to lose as much as possible so you can have a chance to pick high in what’s looking like a weak draft is the way to build a successful organization? With McKenna starting to look like an Alexis Lafreniere, do you think he’s the answer?
Your answer is yes, I know.
I’ve already explained more than once what I think their strategy is and how I think it can lead to a consistently competitive team so I won’t revisit that yet again. It’s not tanking so you pay it no mind.
You go ahead and keep rooting for Seattle to fail, I’m gonna root for my team to win and I have a lot more faith in their abilities than your “insights”.
Go Kraken!!!
Go back to your cashews and cigarettes.
For those who wish the Kraken scored more goals, guess who the number two goal scorer in the NHL is? https://www.nhl.com/stats/
Good discussion here starting at 04:01 about this former Kraken: https://thehockeynews.com/news/podcast/the-wraparound-what-is-morgan-geekie-s-offensive-ceiling-with-bruins
For those who decry the lack of scoring by the Kraken, guess who the number two scorer in the NHL right now?
For a good discussion on this former Kraken, start at 04:01 https://thehockeynews.com/news/podcast/the-wraparound-what-is-morgan-geekie-s-offensive-ceiling-with-bruins
I have no idea why we didn’t keep Geekie, didn’t like it at the time and still don’t.
At the time Matty had just come off a Calder Trophy season, Wennberg was locked into the No.2 spot and Gourde was one of the league’s better No.3s. Add Shane Wright also in the organization and it was difficult to see where more playing time was going to become available for Geekie and it sounds like that’s what he wanted. I get that folks might have disagreed with the decision, but I don’t think it’s hard to understand why they let him walk at the time.
Also, just last week on the PDOcast Jack Han – who literally writes the book Hockey Tactics every season – was saying Pasternak has been one of the league’s top goal scorers for a long time but this season he’s becoming one of the league’s best play drivers creating chances for his teammates. I think Geekie is a better player than anyone realized (he signed in Boston for $2m x 2 AND they went out and gave Lindhom $8.75m x 5) but I don’t think he’s the same player if he’s on a line with the Kraken as opposed to the Bruins. Just my thoughts.
Wennberg is nothing special. How typical of the Kraken to be too afraid to do anything a little out of the ordinary.
I felt like Hakstol and Bylsma were a little out of the ordinary.
I’d like to see the NHL adopt the “three points for a regulation win” rule.
I agree. If teams get a point for a draw, three points to entice teams to play for wins makes perfect sense. But the NHL aims for “parity”, which is a fancy word for artificially keeping sh*t teams looking half alive a bit into the season, rather than dead in the water by Xmas/New Year.