April is here and the regular season enters its final month. The Seattle Kraken have nine games remaining and sit just three points out of a playoff spot. The vibes around the team have been low since the Olympic break, thanks to Seattle going a dismal 5-10-2 in that stretch. Only the Vancouver Canucks have fared worse in the NHL, going 4-11-2. Coincidentally, two of the Kraken’s five wins came against Vancouver.
At the beginning of the season, few believed the Kraken could contend for a playoff position. Fans told me they just wanted meaningful hockey in March and April. Well, we are here, and they got their wish. The Kraken are in the hunt for a wild-card spot. Watching them lose stings, but a path to the playoffs still exists.
Six-team race
Six teams are realistically chasing the final playoff spot: Nashville, Los Angeles, Winnipeg, San Jose, St. Louis and Seattle. The good news? No team has taken charge. St. Louis and Winnipeg have surged back into the picture, but the race remains wide open.
There is still hope. The Kraken hold the tiebreakers against most teams, with only St. Louis having more regulation wins at 27. Seattle is tied for second with Nashville and Winnipeg at 25 regulation wins but owns the second tiebreaker with 31 total wins. The way games are trending, the playoff cutoff line is tracking toward 86 points.
If the cutoff line ends up at 86 points, that would tie the mark for the lowest point total for a playoff team since the wild-card format debuted in the 2013-14 season. For the seasons shortened by COVID (2019-20 and 2020-2021), the values above reflect projected points over 82 games.
Strength of schedule favors Seattle
Another positive: the Kraken’s remaining strength of schedule. I looked at each team’s points percentage since the Olympic break and averaged their remaining opponents. The Kraken have the second-easiest schedule among the six teams in the hunt.
With the Kraken sitting at 75 points, they need 11 more to reach the projected 86-point cutoff. That means five wins and an overtime loss in nine games. Going 5-3-1 would cut it close, and then they’d likely have to lean on the tiebreakers. Any point total of 86 or more would help, but let’s start with 5-3-1 as a surmountable target. Losses will happen, but for the moment, we will spot the Kraken three losses, so that not every game feels like a must-win (though a 9-0 finish would work too).
Updated tiers
With roughly two weeks left in the regular season, the tiers matter less than they did before. However, here is the April update.
The Kraken’s remaining nine games all come against Western Conference opponents.
Playoff-bound teams
Minnesota and Colorado, both on the road are the two games the Kraken face in this tier. Minnesota has played .500 hockey since the Olympic break at 7-7-2, making them beatable. Colorado has dominated at 12-6-1 since the break. However, the Kraken face the Avalanche in the regular-season finale. Colorado currently holds an eight-point lead in the Presidents’ Trophy race and have a game in hand. By that final game, the Avalanche may rest their starters, giving the Kraken an edge. It could also be an interesting game because if the Kraken make the playoffs, Colorado is the most likely first-round matchup. Target: two points.
Bubble teams
Seattle will play five games against Utah, Winnipeg, Los Angeles and Vegas twice. Playing Vegas twice means the Kraken could create a four-point swing. Vegas has managed only a 6-10-2 record for a .389 points percentage since the break, which led to the firing of Bruce Cassidy and the hiring of John Tortorella. The Kraken will hope Vegas continues to slide rather than getting a boost from a new-coach bump.
Los Angeles and Winnipeg carry extra weight as the only Kraken games against wild-card hopefuls. Also, Utah holds a five-point cushion but does not want to slip and open another wild-card spot for teams to fight over. Target: seven points.
Tanker teams
Two games remain in this tier: Chicago and Calgary. The Flames have been winning lately, sitting at .500 since the break (8-8-2). Oddly, the Kraken hold a .462 points percentage against tanker teams this season, their worst category. They have played better against the Playoff Bound tier (.533) and Bubble tier (.522). Target: two points, but four would be ideal.
What if the Kraken fall short?
Making the playoffs is the goal, and the Kraken have a slim but realistic path to get there. If they fall short, though, the news is not all bad. Pacific Division point totals this season trail the rest of the league. Anaheim leads the division with 87 points and sits fourth in the Western Conference, yet that total would not earn a playoff spot in the East. Columbus currently holds the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot with 88 points.
How does that help Seattle? The Kraken sit 26th in the league standings. If the season ended today, they would be in line for the seventh overall pick before the draft lottery. At seventh, the Kraken would have a slim chance at moving up to the first overall pick, but getting any top-10 pick would be a good consolation prize.
The final push
Nine games stand between the Kraken and the end of the regular season. The math is simple: go 5-3-1 or better and the playoffs are within reach.
Before the Olympic break, the Kraken played some of their best hockey of the season. Seattle went 11-6-2 in calendar year 2026 heading into the break, a stretch that vaulted them into the playoff conversation. Since the break, they have slipped. A 5-10-2 record tells the story of a team struggling to recapture its rhythm.
The good news is the Kraken do not need to be perfect; they need to be the team they were before the break. An 11-6-2 pace over nine games translates to roughly a 5-3-1 clip. That gets them to 86 points and in the playoff conversation and maybe their tie-breakers push them over the top.
Now the question is whether they can find that level one more time when it matters most. The path is there. Nine games to take it.
It will not be easy. The Kraken have won just five of their last 17 games, but they have the tiebreakers, the schedule, and a proven stretch of winning hockey to draw from. The opportunity is real.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
This is always such a great reality check Blaiz. Thanks. It will not be easy…
Go Kraken!!!
I don’t think 86 points will be enough to get in to the playoffs. Kings have 78 points already and a cupcake schedule the rest of the way (as your graphic shows). Could easily see them going 5-3 (wins against Leafs, Canucks x2, Flames, and a split with the Predators; losses to Oilers, Predators, and us hopefully). On top of that, the Sharks are at 77 points and have six or seven winnable games (Chicago x2, Vancouver, Toronto, Winnipeg, and Nashville x2). It’s more likely to take 88 or 89 points to get in and I don’t see this version of the Kraken pulling that rabbit out of their hat (going 6-2-1).
Yep fair point. The Kings have a good path to the playoffs. The 86 points is based on their win percentage. The Canucks just beat Colorado, so no games are guaranteed. My thought is let’s start with targeting 86 and see if we can exceed it. The Kraken have three streaks of nine games this season with 12 points and one streak with 17 points, so this is not out of the question. It is not a guarantee either, but the point is the season is not over yet.
It looks to me that we only have more wins than two teams, LA and STL. Everyone else has more wins or equal.
I’m curious where the strength of schedule comes from, just looking at the SJ schedule it looks like a better path to a playoff berth then Seattle’s schedule and they have a 25% chance of making the playoffs compared to Seattle at 15% through money puck. Where is the disconnect between schedule and odds? Money Puck actually has us with the lowest odds to make the playoffs out of the pack in the mix, I’m curious what mix of stats they use I’d think strength of schedule would be high in their formula.
REGULATION wins is the first tie break, not wins.
I see, OT wins gets combined in the standings.
The strength of schedule is something I generated that looks the teams performance since the Olympic break which teams have played 16-18 games. It takes the win percentage and averages them for a teams remaining opponents. For example here is Seattle remaining schedule:
Seattle
Utah 0.529
Chicago 0.417
Winnipeg 0.667
Minnesota 0.500
Vegas 0.389
Calgary 0.500
Los Angeles 0.500
Vegas 0.389
Colorado 0.658
—————
Average 0.505
I don’t think strength of schedule or RW or Moneypuck or any of that matters. All that will matter is who gets hot in the remaining games.
From where I sit, I would put my money on either LA or ‘Peg, because they are used to winning and their vets can and have made the difference.
SJ is 100% running on MC but think they might be a year or so away. The Preds vets seem to running out of steam with three straight losses
St. Louis, along with Winnipeg, having the best recent records, so if they keep that going, they could be in.
Don’t see the Kraken in any of these buckets, so not sure what their edge might be. Hope is not a strategy. Just can’t see them the winner in a 6-way knife fight.
It is an uphill battle, but I would not be surprised if any of the 6 teams take the last spot, they all, including the Kraken have path to it. You might be right it comes down to who get hot, but Kraken have shown they can get hot, so why not us?
I’d like to call out Snaxalot’s awesome tool from the discord: https://allenselew.github.io/nhl-march-madness/
Plot every remaining match and play around with the scenarios. My only half serious projections put wc2 at 88 points required. We’ll see!
Management signaled hard in the offseason that the Kraken making the playoffs consistently going forward was the goal. Many Kraken fans made the prediction that the team would make it too. The only reason we are talking about playoffs is the unforeseen luck that the Kraken are in the Pacific. They haven’t earned through their play.
I reject the idea we should be happy “having meaningful games” in March/April. Let’s call it what it is: the team has failed to be competitive and now risks being an afterthought in the offseason free agent market. Serious changes have to be made.
The health of the franchise would be better off going 0-9, all but guaranteeing a true high value pick. But still I root for them to go 9-0.
It’s hard not to root for wins especially when you are at the game. It’s going to be hard looking in the mirror if we get too many wins but not enough and that’s my fear. Tough situation as a fan.
It only matters if the players get up for the games. I’ve seen so many lackluster games from this group. They lack mental determination, and the make the same dumb mistakes game after game. Some look clueless and some don’t seem to have the necessary passion needed for hockey.
Well it also matters how the coaching staff approach the game….,
Spot on. By contrast, I watched the Sharks/Ducks game last night. Up and down fast play – it was incredibly entertaining to watch, the intensity was front and center, and San Jose played as though their lives depended on it (it does). I’ve yet to see that type of intensity/effort from the Kraken, and the game day experience at CPA is one of the most expensive in the league. Feels like we’re getting cheated….
I wonder how the season would look if we started the season with bobby mcmann instead of mason marchment
A. The fat lady sang after the loss vs. Edmonton. Get real.
B. Why would we want to get into playoffs… this team needs a top line scorer, we don’t have it anywhere in the system, which means, draft picks are our way forward. More wins is the last thing we need at this point.