Down on the Farm – Firebirds advance in AHL playoffs, Kraken have sixth-best lottery odds on May 5

by | May 1, 2026 | 1 comment

This is your Seattle Kraken prospects update. Usually, I’d say this is your “weekly” update, but we’re returning from a two-week hiatus resulting from conflicting personal and professional obligations (and some draft preparations). Thanks for hanging with me. We have a lot to catch up on.

In this week’s column, we’ll prepare you for the NHL Draft Lottery, get you caught up on the happenings in Coachella Valley, cover a championship for Clarke Caswell, and check in on Kraken prospects still alive in the CHL and SHL playoffs.

After that, we’ll have a final 2025–26 season data check-in and other news, notes, and video from around the Kraken system, as always.

In the weeks ahead, we’ll be bridging into offseason mode, which will include more video deep dives, but could also include answers to your questions. So, if you have a Seattle Kraken prospect–related question you’d like to see featured in a future column or mailbag, drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.

Firebirds streak into the second round of the Calder Cup playoffs

As the AHL regular season came to a close, the Coachella Valley Firebirds were bolstered by a number of returning players. The Kraken reassigned Jani Nyman, Jacob Melanson, and Oscar Fisker Mølgaard from the NHL team back to the Firebirds. Logan Morrison, Jagger Firkus, Ty Nelson, and Kaden Hammell all returned from injury of various durations, and David Goyette was activated following his league suspension. While young defensemen Caden Price and Lukas Dragicevic remain out of the lineup with injuries, the team began the Calder Cup playoffs as close to “full strength” as we have seen in months.

At first, it did not look like it would be enough. In Game 1 of the Firebirds’ first-round series in Bakersfield on Thursday, Apr. 23, the Condors caved in the Firebirds’ defense and bested Nikke Kokko for six goals on the way to a 6–1 blowout result. Offensively, the Firebirds continued a season-long struggle on the power play, getting blanked in six opportunities. The production was disappointing against a Condors team that had been mediocre defensively.

The Firebirds’ fortunes turned when they returned to Palm Desert. In Game 2 on Saturday, Apr. 25, the Firebirds amassed a 3–1 lead through two periods and a 4–2 lead midway through the third. The Condors did tie the game, but Fisker Mølgaard potted the game-winner with 3:10 remaining, his second of the game. Kokko again backstopped the Firebirds’ 5–4 win.

Then, in Game 3 the next night, the Firebirds overcame a slow start (just five shots in the first period) to mount a four-goal, second-period onslaught that effectively put the series away. With an empty-net goal and two assists, Fisker Mølgaard led the team with three points, and Kokko turned in his stingiest game of the series, playing particularly well in the first period to keep the Firebirds in it.

This 6–2 win put the Firebirds through to the best-of-five second round, where the top team in the Pacific Division, the Ontario Reign, were waiting after a first-round bye.

On Wednesday, Apr. 29, the Firebirds stole Game 1 on the road from their I-10 rivals on the strength of a 3–0 shutout win for Kokko. J.R. Avon notched two goals, and Fisker Mølgaard added the other. The young Dane leads the AHL playoffs in both goals (four) and points (six). His effort is good enough to earn him a Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week distinction. (We’ll, somewhat arbitrarily, give another player this distinction too because we’re covering three weeks with this update.)

The Firebirds remain in Ontario for Game 2 on Friday, May 1, before returning home next week:

Fri. May 01, 2026 – 7:00PM PDT @ Ontario
Tue. May 05, 2026 – 7:00PM PDT @ Coachella Valley
Thu. May 07, 2026 – 7:00PM PDT @ Coachella Valley*
Sat. May 09, 2026 – 6:00PM PDT @ Ontario*
*If necessary

Kraken hold the sixth-best odds in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery

After a “disappointing” post-Olympic stretch, the Kraken finished this season with just 79 standings points, the sixth-lowest sum in the NHL. The final total was right in line with the 2024–25 season’s 76 points (amassed behind one-year coach Dan Bylsma) and the 2023–24 season’s 81 points (Dave Hakstol’s last season). Yet, the team held a playoff position well into March, which made the final outcome a calamitous letdown.

The silver lining from a franchise-building perspective is that the team now enters the May 5, 2026, NHL Draft Lottery in sixth position. This means the team has the sixth-best odds of moving up to the No. 1 overall pick—a 7.5 percent chance. Overall, the team has a 15.4 percent chance of moving up, a 34.1 percent chance of sticking at the No. 6 overall pick, and a 50.5 percent chance of moving down either one or two spots.

For the second year in a row, the NHL will conduct the lottery live on air (as opposed to the old format, where the lottery was conducted shortly before the broadcast and sequestered). The Draft Lottery will be broadcast in the United States on ESPN, beginning at 4:00 p.m. PDT on Tuesday, May 5.

This draft is defined by two star wingers at the top, Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, followed by a host of strong defense prospects, including Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff, and Alberts Smits. Brantford Bulldog Caleb Malhotra is emerging as the top center on the board, likely ahead of Viggo Bjork and Tynan Lawrence.

For more on how the NHL Draft Lottery works, the Kraken website has an explainer.

With respect to the draft more generally, Kraken fans should also be tracking the progress of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs. Seattle holds Tampa’s first-round pick, and NHL playoff teams are slotted with consideration given to their playoff performance. We will need to wait (at least) through the second round to know for certain where the pick will slot, but generally speaking, the earlier the Lightning lose, the better. The Lightning face elimination in Montreal on Friday, May 1.

Clarke Caswell wins a National Championship

During our last update, we noted that Kraken prospect Clarke Caswell helped propel the University of Denver to the National Championship Game. Denver and Caswell took full advantage, taking down the Wisconsin Badgers for Denver’s eleventh national title.

For his part, Caswell led all NCHC players with nine points in March and April, earning him Conference Rookie of the Month honors. It was a remarkable end to a successful freshman season for Caswell.

Other Kraken prospects inch closer to titles of their own

Elsewhere, several Kraken prospects are continuing their march through the postseason.

Everett vs. Penticton (WHL)

Julius Miettinen and the Everett Silvertips are through to the WHL Championship after sweeping Ryden Evers and the Penticton Vees in the Western Conference Finals. Everett will take on the winner of the ongoing Medicine Hat and Prince Albert series in the East. Everett will host the first game of the WHL Championship beginning on Friday, May 8.

Miettinen has 10 goals and 8 assists across 13 playoff contests so far.

Barrie vs. Brantford (OHL)

In the OHL, the Kraken have prospects alive in both remaining series. Jake O’Brien and the Bulldogs lead the Barrie Colts three games to two. O’Brien is tied for third in the OHL playoffs with 22 points (seven goals and 15 assists). O’Brien’s production earned him OHL Player of the Week honors and a share of the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week distinction as well.

Sat. May 02, 2026 – 4:30PM PDT @ Barrie
Mon. May 04, 2026 – 4:00PM PDT @ Brantford*
*If necessary

Kitchener vs. Windsor (OHL)

The winner of the Brantford–Barrie series will meet the victor of the Kitchener Rangers and Windsor Spitfires series, which Kitchener leads three games to one. Kraken prospects Nathan Villeneuve and Jakub Fibigr play for Windsor. Fibigr is fourth among all OHL defensemen in the playoffs with 12 points (three goals and nine assists), while Villeneuve has contributed three goals, one assist, and his typical hard-nosed style.

Fri. May 01, 2026 – 4:00PM PDT @ Kitchener
Mon. May 04, 2026 – 4:05PM PDT @ Windsor*
Wed. May 06, 2026 – 4:00PM PDT @ Kitchener*
*If necessary

Chicoutimi vs. Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)

In the QMJHL, Alexis Bernier and the Chicoutimi Saguenéens are tied with the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies two games apiece in the semifinals. Bernier has two goals in the series and four points overall in the playoffs.

Fri. May 01, 2026 – 4:00PM PDT @ Chicoutimi
Sun. May 03, 2026 – 1:00PM PDT @ Rögle
Tues. May 05, 2026 – 4:00PM PDT @ Chicoutimi*
*If necessary

Skellefteå vs. Rögle (SHL)

Overseas, Zeb Forsfjäll and Skellefteå AIK are up three games to one on Rögle BK in the best-of-seven SHL Championship Series. Forsfjäll has played in all four games and is plus-one with an assist.

The remaining schedule of games is as follows:

Sat. May 02, 2026 – 6:15AM PDT @ Skellefteå
Mon. May 04, 2026 – 10:00AM PDT @ Rögle*
Wed. May 06, 2026 – 10:00AM PDT @ Skellefteå*
*If necessary

[NOTE: All of the upcoming games this week listed in this section can be streamed at FloHockey.]

Final Regular-Season Data Update

Jake O’Brien finished third in total points (93) and first in points per game (1.75) in the OHL.

Kim Saarinen finished the season with the top save percentage in Liiga (.916). Semyon Vyazovoi finished tied for fourth in save percentage in the KHL (.931).

Notes on four other Kraken prospects

Tyson Jugnauth | D | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)

Since our last update, Tyson Jugnauth earned a place on the AHL All-Rookie Team, a just reward for his hard work in getting to this point. The blueliner recorded his first playoff point, an assist, on Wednesday in the Firebirds’ Game 1 win over the Reign.
Elsewhere in the Jugnauth family, younger brother Brayden has a chance to be the top pick in the WHL Draft, which begins on Tuesday, May 5.

Blake Fiddler | D | Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

As we speculated previously, Blake Fiddler, the Kraken’s 2025 second-round pick, will reportedly be moving up to the NCAA ranks next season, committing to join David Carle and the defending champion University of Denver. It’s a sensible next step for Fiddler, who needs to improve his physicality and all-around game. Pioneers hockey will be must-see television for Kraken fans next season.

Will Reynolds | D | Newfoundland Regiment (QMJHL)

Following the elimination of Reynolds’ Newfoundland Regiment in the QMJHL playoffs, Reynolds has signed an amateur tryout agreement with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Like other players before him, Reynolds joins the AHL club at the end of the season after his draft in order to learn and acclimate to the pro environment. It’s unlikely he will suit up for a game, but the hope is it’s a springboard for the player moving forward.

Kim Saarinen | G | HPK (Liiga)

In other news, goalie Saarinen was also added to the Firebirds’ roster. Like Reynolds, it’s unlikely Saarinen gets into a game over Kokko or Victor Ostman. Instead, the goal is to expose him to the staff and environment in Coachella Valley with their future working relationship in mind. At this point, I still think it’s likely Saarinen returns to Europe for at least one more season.

Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker

4 wins: Jake O’Brien

3 wins: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen, Julius Miettinen, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard

2 wins: Clarke Caswell, Logan Morrison, Nathan Villeneuve, Semyon Vyazovoi

1 win: Alexis Bernier, Barrett Hall, Ollie Josephson, Tyson Jugnauth, Nikke Kokko, Victor Ostman, Zaccharya Wisdom

Tracking 2026 NHL Draft prospects: Simas Ignatavicius

Ignatavicius is a likely top-50 pick, checking in at No. 39 on the midseason Big Board and No. 10 among international skaters in the final NHL Central Scouting list. The six-foot-three Lithuanian-American forward played the bulk of this season in the top-level pro league in Switzerland, the National League. He had seven goals, six assists, and was a plus-seven in 52 games.

Recent prospect updates

Apr. 11, 2026: Caswell to National Championship game, Saarinen to Coachella Valley

April 4, 2026: Kraken prospects to the Frozen Four, Firebirds face a rash of injuries

March 28, 2026: Kraken prospect playoff preview

March 21, 2026: Saarinen’s Liiga dominance, and the Kraken development track record

March 13, 2026: Kraken prospects mailbag – part 2

March 7, 2026: Seattle Kraken sign Ryden Evers, trade from draft asset depth

February 27, 2026: Rangers claim Tye Kartye, Kraken re-sign two forwards

February 20: 2026: David Goyette suspended for 20 games

February 13, 2026: Projecting NHL futures for Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus

February 6, 2026: Seattle Kraken prospects midseason mailbag

Curtis Isacke

Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.

Read more from Curtis

1 Comment

  1. Totemforlife
    Totemforlife on May 5, 2026 at 1:41 pm

    Curtis – Thanks as always for your work following Kraken prospects. Nice to see Blake Fiddler making the logical choice to leave the CHL for NCAA hockey, and OFM continuing to develop.

    With respect to farm system rankings, the Athletic (which everyone loves to reference) ranked the Kraken 7th overall. However, The Hockey News had a less sanguine view. THN gave the Kraken a B minus grade and ranked their farm system 16th in the league. They also did a five-year lookback. Given the Kraken’s average draft position (ADR) of 7th during that five-year window, the Kraken had a “relative ranking score” (7 ADR – 16 farm system ranking) of -9, which ranked 30th in the league. Implying the Kraken have done a poor job of drafting/developing prospects given their relatively draft position the past five years.

    Reply

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