The first big milestone of the Seattle Kraken offseason comes Tuesday evening with the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, which will be televised on ESPN in the United States starting at 4:00 pm PT. As was the case last year, the Lottery will be broadcast “live,” with the draft order revealed to teams and fans in real time.

The Lottery sets the order of the top 16 picks of the first round of the NHL Draft. For the second straight year, the Kraken enter the Lottery in sixth position and with the sixth-highest odds to move up to the No. 1 overall pick.

How does the Lottery work? How did Seattle end up with the sixth-best Lottery odds? Why does the Lottery matter so much for Seattle? And who could be there when the Kraken pick? Let’s dig into those questions and more in this 2026 NHL Draft preview.

The plan is to return after the Lottery with quick thoughts on a few potential draft candidates once the Kraken pick is set. Beyond that, we also have our annual 2025 NHL Draft “data-only watchlist” coming soon. (Check out the preseason version here.) Closer to the draft, we’ll have the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. (Check out the mid-season version here.) So, keep it tuned to Sound Of Hockey for your continuing 2026 NHL Draft coverage.

How does the NHL Draft Lottery work?

The NHL Draft’s default selection rule places teams in reverse order of the final regular-season standings, with “ties” broken in the same manner as they would be for playoff qualification.

The 16 teams that fail to qualify for the NHL playoffs are assigned weighted Lottery odds based on the reverse standings order. Teams are then assigned a portion of 1,000 four-number combinations based on their Lottery odds. (See the full list here.) In other words, the team with the fewest standings points has the best Lottery odds and the most four-number combinations, the team with the second-fewest standings points has the second-best Lottery odds and the second-most number combinations, and so forth.

The NHL Draft Lottery then utilizes 14 ping pong balls, which are placed into a machine that randomizes them and releases four sequentially.

There are two drawings. The team with the four-digit combination corresponding to the sequence of the first drawing “wins” the Lottery. “Winning” means that the team moves up as many as 10 spots in the selection order. If the team finished in the bottom 11 in the standings, it moves to the No. 1 overall pick.

If the “winning” team finished 12th to 16th from last in the standings, then it does not move to No. 1, but instead only moves up the maximum 10 selections. For example, if the No. 13 team “wins” the first drawing, it moves up to the No. 3 pick.

The process is then repeated a second time, with the only difference being that in this second draw, teams can only move up as high as the No. 2 overall pick. If the team that “won” the first drawing wins again, there is a redraw until a different team wins. (In the rare circumstance that the No. 12 team “wins” the first Lottery draw and moves up to the No. 2 overall spot, this second draw can move a team up only as high as the No. 3 pick.)

After the second draw is completed, the remaining teams are then slotted based on the default order. Accordingly, no team can “fall” more than two draft spots in the Lottery. For example, the team with the best Lottery odds can only move down as far as the No. 3 pick. (The Kraken can only move down as far as the No. 8 pick.)

For those who want to follow the NHL Draft Lottery interactively, PuckPedia has an online tool where you can input the ping pong ball numbers as they are drawn and generate live odds for each team prevailing. That said, I presume ESPN and other networks will have a similar display on their broadcasts.

Why does the NHL Draft Lottery exist?

The Lottery is meant to decrease the unintended anti-competitive incentives that result when bad teams are given the best draft picks—particularly in a sport where a single superstar can make a big difference.

Of course, we’d be naive to think the incentive to “tank” for a better draft pick doesn’t still exist, even with the NHL Draft Lottery. But under the Lottery system, the “worst” team in the league has only a 25.5 percent chance of drafting first overall rather than 100 percent.

In a draft with a singular superstar, this could make a big difference in the behavior of NHL front offices. The system attempts to strike a balance between giving weaker teams a chance at the best talent while maintaining the integrity of competition.

Where do the Seattle Kraken stand in the Lottery?

The Seattle Kraken finished the 2025–26 NHL regular season with 79 points—a three-point improvement on last season’s results, but 21 points short of the 2022–23 playoff campaign. After an offseason in which the team turned over most of the coaching staff and expressed optimism about returning to the playoffs, the team’s performance “disappointed,” particularly down the stretch.

Seattle’s point total was the sixth-lowest in the NHL. As calculated by Tankathon, Seattle’s odds of picking at any given selection, and each NHL team’s odds of selecting No. 1 overall, are as follows:

In other words, there is a 15.4 percent chance Seattle’s pick position improves, a 34.1 percent chance it stays at No. 6 overall, and a 50.5 percent chance it diminishes.

How important is the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery?

Historical analysis suggests that the projected career production of a draft pick drops off steeply from the No. 1 pick onward. This year, my crude Data Score method (release coming next week) shows a difference between the first overall prospect on my watchlist and the sixth of similar magnitude to the difference between the sixth and the last picks of the seventh round.

The 2026 NHL Draft looks relatively weak from my vantage point in its depth through the first round. It starts well: there are two players at the top worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in an average draft—Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg.

After that, though, the draft lacks a supporting tier of talent that teams drafting in the three-to-five range would prefer to see. Before the season, there were a handful of players who looked like potential candidates to be picked in this range—including Keaton Verhoeff, Tynan Lawrence, and Ryan Roobroeck—but each has stalled in his production or taken steps back in scouting evaluations.

Looking at Data Score only, Seattle’s No. 6 pick last year, Jake O’Brien, would be the clear-cut No. 3 prospect if his profile from last year were dropped into this year’s draft.

Beyond the top five, there are a handful of players who might be a better fit in the five-to-10 range in an average draft, but those players will be pushed up in this draft due to the dearth of top talent.

All of this sets up a highly consequential Draft Lottery for the Seattle Kraken. If the Kraken move up, the team could obtain a transformative player. If the Kraken stay put or fall, it’s possible they miss out on an average top-10-worthy talent entirely.

2026 NHL Draft names to monitor

There are only two names to watch if the Kraken win the lottery. Failing that, the field is murkier, particularly if two high-producing defensemen are off the board by the time Seattle picks.

Gavin McKenna | Left Wing | Penn State Univ. (NCAA) 

McKenna was the consensus No. 1 prospect in the fall after blow-torching the WHL in his draft-minus-one season. While he had some quiet stretches (and an off-ice incident) during his freshman year at Penn State, McKenna ended the year with 51 points. This was the fourth-most among draft-eligible college players in the last 20 years, behind only Adam Fantilli, Macklin Celebrini, and Jack Eichel.

McKenna doesn’t have dynamic straight-line speed, but he can manipulate and beat defenses with his skating, possession, and passing in-zone. He creates space for himself and his teammates with the ease of a star.

Nitpicking his game, scouts fault him for floating around the perimeter too often. But even if he doesn’t improve in this area, the extremity of his skill level is unlikely to be denied. Mitch Marner or early-career Connor Bedard are reasonable comparisons, even if McKenna doesn’t fully hit his ceiling. He’s likely to slot into an NHL lineup right away.

Ivar Stenberg | Left Wing | Frölunda HC (SHL)

The single best statistical season in the two-year sample I assembled for thousands of draft-eligible players was Stenberg’s 2025–26 season in the SHL. In fact, Stenberg compiled the third-most points ever by a draft-eligible SHL player, outpacing players like Elias Lindholm, Nicklas Bäckström, Leo Carlsson, and William Eklund, just to name a few.

Scouts credit a strong offensive package of possession, shot, and passing skills, matched by high-end hockey IQ. While one might suspect a weaker defensive or puck-battle profile, he receives strong grades in those areas as well.

Stenberg projects as a first-line winger down the road and is the most ready-made forward in the draft to help an NHL team this coming season. Even in a draft with McKenna, Stenberg is the hottest prospect coming into the draft.

Chase Reid | Right Defense | Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

From what I have seen of the top defense prospects in this draft, Chase Reid stands out as the most dynamic offensive presence. The 6-foot-2 righty is a strong skater and puck-driving catalyst. He has the offensive IQ and passing ability to lead a power-play unit and is progressing enough defensively to take difficult matchups.

That said, Reid brings track record and upside questions. He has produced since he’s been in the OHL, but the résumé is short; he played 18 games of his 2024–25 season in the NAHL, which rarely produces high draft picks. And even if you’re buying the OHL production (I am), Reid may not have the pure physicality to dominate at the NHL level.

That said, the skills are all there to be a No. 1 defenseman if he keeps pushing his development trajectory. For a team like Seattle that needs an injection of electricity on the back end, he’d be a good pick if the Kraken are selecting at No. 6 and he makes it there.

Carson Carels | Left Defense | Prince George Cougars (WHL)

Carson Carels was right there with Reid as a junior producer from the blue line. His 1.26 points per game this season is the highest mark by a draft-eligible WHL defenseman since Scott Niedermayer in the 1990–91 season. The 6-foot-2 left-shot D-man also has the advantage of youth (born June 23, 2008) compared with the other prospects listed here.

When I’ve watched Carels, I’ve formed the impression of a very solid all-around player. He can defend with physicality, initiate the rush, and flash skill in the offensive zone. But I tend to view his upside as closer to a first-pair defenseman rather than a true “No. 1.”

Similar to Reid, I don’t see physically dominant tools or top-end upside. And since I’d put Carels’ offense slightly behind Reid’s, he’s likely to rank slightly behind Reid as a top-10 prospect for me. For Kraken fans, think Vince Dunn with the potential for better, more disciplined defense.

Caleb Malhotra | Center | Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

Setting aside Stenberg, Caleb Malhotra may have done more to help himself in his draft season than any other player. Coming into the season, Tynan Lawrence was viewed as the consensus top center, and Malhotra was a bit of an afterthought coming off a mid-range season in the BCHL. His play was trending up in the BCHL playoffs for Chilliwack, though, and he took a giant leap in his draft season playing with Jake O’Brien in the OHL for Brantford.

Malhotra flashes everything you could want from a center: defense, physicality, transition-driving possession ability, and passing and finishing skill in the offensive zone. Still, he has a limited CHL résumé. Will a team drafting in the top five trust a one-year evaluation over everything else? It’s a choice you’d rather make in the teens than that high. Still, the siren song of a center is strong.

Malhotra fits the profile of the player the Kraken have consistently targeted high in the draft. If the Kraken are picking somewhere between sixth and eighth and he’s still there, he’d be a natural fit.

Alberts Smits | Left Defense | Jukurit (Liiga)

Alberts Smits is the inverse of Carels and Reid. I’ve seen him dominate peer-level competition at the World Juniors for Latvia. He has high-level pro experience in both the top German and Finnish leagues, and he has the physicality to impose his will on a game at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds. It’s easier to see a “No. 1 defenseman” outcome if everything clicks.

On the other hand, he does not have high-end offensive production, and I wonder if he will be afforded the opportunity to tap into it at this stage. He has already found so much success as a defense-oriented professional.

Generally, I’m not a fan of taking a defensive defenseman high in the draft because the overall impact on NHL team success is limited compared with a dynamic offensive presence. That said, Smits appeals for the Kraken because he could step in (whether immediately or after some time in the AHL) to fill a void on the left side and on the penalty kill with Jamie Oleksiak’s projected departure.

Keaton Verhoeff | Right Defense | Univ. of North Dakota (NCAA)

If there was a threat to McKenna’s status as the No. 1 overall pick coming into the season, many thought it would be Keaton Verhoeff. Verhoeff, a 6-foot-4 right-handed blueliner, played his draft season at the University of North Dakota after a very strong run both offensively and defensively for the Victoria Royals in the WHL.

Verhoeff’s offensive production flattened a bit in the second half of his draft season, and his skating and four-way mobility drew some criticism from scouts. This has dropped him down most boards, but I wonder if some of this is unwarranted—the result of seeing the inevitable struggle at a higher competition level before the draft rather than after.

Generally, I’m in favor of junior players pushing themselves like Verhoeff did, and it was not calamitous. He may be trending toward a solid pro career rather than being a perennial All-Star, but there are still abundant offensive and physical tools to be excited about. He’s a worthy upside swing toward the end of the top 10 in this draft.

Daxon Rudolph | Right Defense | Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)

Daxon Rudolph often gets lost in the shuffle when discussing the top defense prospects in this class, but he shouldn’t be. Rudolph brings excellent offensive production for a 6-foot-2 righty. His 78 points are the most by a draft-eligible WHL defenseman since the 2001–02 season. (He played 10 more games than Carels.) His 28 goals are the second-most in that same timeframe, behind only Carter Yakemchuk in 2023–24.

I’d put him behind Reid as an offensive player and behind Carels in terms of overall impact, but he projects as a top-four, two-way defenseman.

Other names to know: Viggo Björk (F), Ryan Lin (D), Tynan Lawrence (F)

Björk is a center who borders on universally beloved by coaches, teammates, and scouts, but he’s 5-foot-9. Ryan Lin is another offense-first defenseman coming out of the WHL, but he too has size concerns at 5-foot-11. Lawrence has the makings of at least a solid middle-six center, but the offensive impact has not been there in his draft season.

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