Last month we hit the five-year anniversary of the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. Since that momentous day in 2021, media and hockey fans have engaged in countless hours of debate over the Kraken’s strategy and success procuring talent in that process.

Did the Kraken overplay their hand or miss other opportunities to profit? Were NHL general managers “smarter” after getting exploited by the Golden Knights four years earlier?

The foundation the Kraken built on that pristine July day at Gas Works Park delivered one invigorating playoff run in the franchise’s second year. Otherwise, the team has finished in the bottom 10 in the standings every season. This track record caused the Kraken to fire multiple head coaches and sever ties with former general manager Ron Francis.

Five years on, it seems like a natural time to reflect on the expansion process. Of the many different ways one could do that, I settled on the following prompt: With the full benefit of hindsight, what team could the Kraken have built through expansion?

In addition to being a fun trip down memory lane, building this “best-case scenario” roster allows us some perspective to answer some of the more difficult expansion-related questions we’ve debated. Most notably, we can learn something about whether the opportunity actually existed to build an immediate contender.

The re-draft rules

Of course, we’re going to follow the same basic rules the Kraken followed. Select one unprotected player from each of the other NHL teams except Vegas. The goal is to build a functional NHL roster that is cap-compliant and has some depth that can be slipped through waivers to the AHL level.

To avoid making assumptions that are unfair to the Kraken, though, we instituted two additional limitations on this thought exercise.

First, we will not sign any player who did not sign with Seattle in reality. For example, we will not suggest that the Kraken simply should have dropped a bag of money on Zach Hyman as a free agent. This is because we have no way of knowing if Hyman would have signed with Seattle or, if he would have, the type of contract it would have required.

Similarly, second, we will not assume that the Kraken are able to make any trades that they did not in fact execute. Again, a trade depends on the consent of an outside party that we have no way of fairly confirming.

This is a significant restriction on our flexibility going into this re-draft because, as we know, Seattle did not make any needle-moving draft-and-flip trades or side deals. It also prevents us from speculating about additional transactions.

As much as I wanted the Kraken to make a deal for Sam Reinhart in July, 2021, we cannot be sure that Buffalo would have accepted a first-round pick and an expansion-drafted goalie from Seattle over Florida’s superficially similar proposal. Buffalo might have been uniquely high on getting Devon Levi, or Florida may have upped its offer to get the player anyway.

The only fair way to approach this is to avoid these types of uncertain scenarios entirely.

The actual Kraken Expansion Draft

Here’s how the Expansion Draft actually went on July 21, 2021:

Two things stand out. First, the Kraken avoided a number of higher-priced players (like James van Riemsdyk, Vladimir Tarasenko, Matt Duchene, and others), preserving significant flexibility into the free agency period. The Kraken then wielded this advantage to secure Philipp Grubauer, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Wennberg, and others.

Second, the Kraken left some picks “on the table,” so to speak, selecting unsigned players Gavin Bayreuther and John Quenneville apparently without any plan to actually keep them. Quenneville and Carsen Twarynski never played an NHL game post-draft and Chris Driedger, Kole Lind, and Alex True each got into fewer than 30 games over the ensuing five years (worth noting, Driedger’s ACL injury at the IIHF World Championships in 2022 almost certainly shortened his tenure with the Kraken).

I continue to struggle with the logic behind some (not all) of these picks in retrospect. Of course, not all 30 players can go on an NHL roster. But even if trades were not there to be made, it would seem that other realistic depth options could have been acquired and stashed in the AHL. In our scenario below, we use the benefit of hindsight to avoid these types of value losses.

The “Hindsight” Kraken Expansion Re-Draft

Before getting into it pick-by-pick, a few notes. I ended up selecting 11 of the same players the team did originally. With only a couple of understandable exceptions, the team did well selecting each of the very best players available.

In hindsight, above-average defensemen on reasonable contracts were very easy to find in this draft. I opted against drafting a number of quality unprotected defenders like Olli Määttä, Brett Kulak, Radko Gudas, and Mark Giordano, simply because there were superior alternatives, all things considered. This is the area where our restriction on “hypothetical” trades hurt the most. Ideally, I would have walked away with draft assets in return for either not selecting or flipping these players.

In contrast, the forward and goalie pools were relatively slim, even with our hindsight advantage. With respect to the forward group, one challenge was that a small handful of teams, notably Nashville and Tampa Bay, held several of the most appealing forwards, but we could only get one from each team. On the goalie side, many of the most productive players were unrestricted free agents going into the Expansion Draft. And given our “rules,” we were essentially limited to building a team around free agent Philipp Grubauer or the few viable candidates under contract (or team control) through the expansion process. This really limited the options and team upside.

OK, let’s analyze the draft picks team-by-team in alphabetical order. An asterisk indicates the player was Seattle’s original selection. After we go through that list, we’ll finish with a summary of the draft and some takeaways.

Anaheim Ducks – Adam Henrique | Pos: C | Shot: L | Age: 31

     Contract – $5,825,000 cap hit through 2023-24

     5-yr outlook – Games: 348  Goals: 80  Assists: 93  EH xGAR: 16.4

     Other players considered – Sonny Milano, Danton Heinen, Anthony Stolarz (UFA)

For much of the five years since the Expansion Draft, Henrique has been an offense-driving, second-line forward. The rest of the time, he has been sidelined with injuries. Injury risk was a known factor at the time of the draft, too. With 29 other picks yet to go, we can build in some center redundancy to protect ourselves. Offense is at a premium in this draft, and Henrique’s skill is too much to pass up. Henrique averages 20 goals a season over the three years remaining on his deal at draft time.

Milano has been an analytics darling but has never been able to secure a regular NHL role and recently signed in Europe. Heinen is an underrated middle-six winger. Stolarz is one of the best goaltenders available, but he’s unsigned. Given our rules, we can’t assume he’ll sign, so we can’t really take him.

Arizona Coyotes – Hudson Fasching | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 25

     Contract – RFA (signed to $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 148  Goals: 16  Assists: 21  EH xGAR: 10.2

     Other players considered – Tyler Pitlick*, Michael Bunting (UFA)

Fasching is a depth forward who delivered solid results in a part-time, fourth-line role. He’d start as a 13th or 14th forward and could head to the waiver wire for assignment to the AHL in Year 1 if the team gets fully healthy at any point.

Another option would be to select Pitlick and flip him to the Flames for a fourth-round pick as the Kraken did originally, but Fasching offers more long-term value than a fourth-round pick. Bunting would be the obvious choice if he came with a contract or team control.

Boston Bruins – Curtis Lazar | Pos: C/F | Shot: R | Age: 26

     Contract – $800,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 283  Goals: 24  Assists: 33  EH xGAR: 5.2

     Other players considered – Jeremy Lauzon*, Connor Clifton, Sean Kuraly (UFA)

Lazar is a fourth-line forward who brings strong defensive and penalty-kill value and right-side draw ability. His overall value is probably comparable to some of the alternatives listed, including original pick Lauzon, but the scarcity of forwards in the draft pushes us toward Lazar.

Lauzon had trade value for Seattle (he returned a second-round pick that became Jani Nyman), but there are other defensemen available to draft and flip that should have even better value.

Buffalo Sabres – William Borgen* | Pos: D | Shot: R | Age: 24

     Contract – RFA

     5-yr outlook – Games: 359  Goals: 18  Assists: 65  EH xGAR: 0.8

     Other players considered – Colin Miller (UFA), Jake McCabe (UFA)

Speaking of which, this brings us to Will Borgen, the Kraken’s actual pick from Buffalo. He remains the standout choice here, but would enter a crowded third-pair depth chart post-draft if he’s not flipped immediately. The concept would be to seek a preseason trade for Borgen (or one of several other NHL-caliber defensemen we select). Failing that, it’s possible Borgen is lost on waivers before he skates in a game for Seattle.

Calgary Flames – Justin Kirkland | Pos: F | Shot: L | Age: 24

     Contract – RFA (signed to $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 50  Goals: 3  Assists: 7  EH xGAR: 3

     Other players considered – Derek Ryan (UFA), Mark Giordano*

Kirkland is a 6-foot-3 depth forward who was stashed for much of the 2021-22 season in the AHL. That would be our plan for him. His five-year outlook is like the forward version of Cale Fleury: solid up-and-down depth.

Selecting Mark Giordano in this slot makes sense if you can flip him before the season for similar assets Seattle actually obtained at the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline. Two second-round picks are much more valuable than the depth Kirkland provides. Again, though, this is an assumption about the availability of such a trade that we did not want to make. Absent an assured trade, it didn’t seem right (professionally or financially) to take the long-time Calgary captain without a plan to actually play him.

Carolina Hurricanes – Morgan Geekie* | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 23

     Contract – RFA (signed to $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 376  Goals: 105  Assists: 109  EH xGAR: 46.8

     Other players considered – Nino Niederreiter (UFA), Dougie Hamilton (UFA)

Morgan Geekie was the Kraken’s original choice, and he remains the correct one. With the benefit of hindsight, it should be a priority to work him into an offense-first role on the wing with skilled players within the first few years. He’s one of the youngest eligible players and projects to deliver top-10 value. The key is development and patience. With a bit more of that, he could help drive the offense by 2024-25.

Carolina’s other intriguing players are unrestricted free agents, thus not a real consideration here.

Chicago Blackhawks – Adam Gaudette | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 24

     Contract – RFA (signed to $997,500 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 207  Goals: 41  Assists: 24  EH xGAR: 9.2

     Other players considered – Nikita Zadorov, Calvin De Haan

Zadorov and De Haan are the more valuable players, but quality defensemen were abundant in the Expansion Draft. Ultimately, we decided to go with other players as our potential “trade-or-waive” pieces (see Buffalo, Minnesota, Vancouver). At some point, you start harming your leverage if you overload with those assets.

Gaudette begins as depth on an AHL assignment. If he sticks with Seattle long enough, the Kraken would benefit from Gaudette’s breakout in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons, in which he has averaged 18 goals.

Colorado Avalanche – J.T. Compher | Pos: C/F | Shot: R | Age: 26

     Contract – $3,500,000 cap hit through 2022-23

     5-yr outlook – Games: 387  Goals: 76  Assists: 117  EH xGAR: 12.8

     Other players considered – Kiefer Sherwood, Brandon Saad (UFA)

Compher is a solid third-line scorer and play driver who can play center or wing. He gives us necessary cover to play up and down the lineup, with two other drafted centers (see Anaheim and Tampa Bay) bringing injury questions. On a two-year, $3.5 million AAV deal, he’s an easy piece to slot in or deal in the team’s first or second year if a reset is needed.

Sherwood arguably delivers more value over the five-year period, but that’s with very little production in the first few years. This raises doubts as to whether he could stick with the team long enough to realize those goals for the Kraken.

Joonas Donskoi was a reasonable pick at the time, but we know he would struggle to score in his only healthy season with the Kraken.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Kevin Stenlund | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 24

     Contract – RFA (signed to $1,050,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 300  Goals: 35  Assists: 35  EH xGAR: -15.3

     Other players considered – Max Domi

Stenlund would begin as a depth piece, either as 13th or 14th forward or, more likely, spending the 2021-22 season in the AHL as he did for Columbus. After that, he’s an option in the 11th-14th forward range, bringing strong work on the face-off dot and a right shot with a 6-foot-3 frame.

Max Domi is an offense-only winger who would be an appealing pick if we could line up a side deal to flip him elsewhere. The Kraken’s need for offense is not so desperate in this scenario that it is worth taking on Domi in the lineup, particularly at his cap hit.

Dallas Stars – Jamie Oleksiak* | Pos: D | Shot: L | Age: 28

     Contract – $4,600,000 cap hit through 2025-26

     5-yr outlook – Games: 389  Goals: 21  Assists: 68  EH xGAR: 17.3

     Other players considered – None

There are better short-term values to be found on the blue line than the five-year, $4.6 million AAV contract the Kraken signed Jamie Oleksiak to before the Expansion Draft. But Oleksiak’s first three years with Seattle were terrific, particularly defensively, and Dallas has very little else to offer. Ultimately, sticking with Seattle’s original sign-and-draft strategy achieved the best roster balance. Oleksiak was unfairly criticized in his time with the Kraken.

Detroit Red Wings – Vladislav Namestnikov | Pos: F | Shot: L | Age: 28

     Contract – $1,000,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 368  Goals: 54  Assists: 90  EH xGAR: 15.6

     Other players considered – Troy Stecher

Namestnikov is a quality middle-six winger who can score and play solid defense. In a draft short on top-nine forwards, he’s an easy choice. With one year and $1 million left on his contract, he’s a trade deadline asset if the season doesn’t go well.

Stecher is a solid player, but there are probably a couple dozen better defensemen available.

Edmonton Oilers – Adam Larsson* | Pos: D | Shot: R | Age: 28

     Contract – $4,000,000 cap hit through 2024-25

     5-yr outlook – Games: 409  Goals: 34  Assists: 95  EH xGAR: -8.2

     Other players considered – Jujhar Khaira

Similar to the situation with Oleksiak, it could be argued that there were better values to be found on the blue line, but two factors worked in Larsson’s favor. The first is the leadership and close on-ice working relationship we know he developed with Vince Dunn (more on Dunn in a minute). The other factor is that Edmonton didn’t have much else to offer beyond unrestricted free agents and depth pieces. All told, Larsson, who badly needed a change of scenery at the time, was an easy choice to sign-and-draft again.

Florida Panthers – Sam Montembeault | Pos: G | Age: 24

     Contract – RFA (signed to $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 206  GAA: 3.28  Save %: .897  EH GSAx: 50.74

     Other players considered – Radko Gudas, Brandon Montour (UFA), Noel Acciari

Florida had a number of interesting pieces to consider. In particular, Radko Gudas would have brought identity and production to the top-four defensively. That said, Sam Montembeault has ascended on a path similar to fellow 24-year-old backstop Joey Daccord (more on him below). The chance to obtain a long-term tandem goalie was too much to pass up.

In the short term, Montembeault would project as the Kraken’s backup for the 2021-22 season. His production was not good that year, but shouldn’t cripple the inaugural team if he’s only used in sheltered matchups behind a better starter.

Los Angeles Kings – Blake Lizotte | Pos: C/F | Shot: L | Age: 23

     Contract – $800,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 327  Goals: 46  Assists: 66  EH xGAR: 21.1

     Other players considered – Olli Maatta

This came down to a choice between Lizotte, who is an undersized, hard-working identity forward, or Maatta, a capable second-pair defenseman. Generally speaking, the abundance of defenders pushed us toward the offensive player. But Lizotte is also a good roster fit regardless. He is capable of playing anywhere in the bottom six, winning face-offs, and delivering quality penalty-kill results. Lizotte was a personal favorite originally at the time of the Expansion Draft, and he has overperformed even my optimistic view of him in the five years since.

Minnesota Wild – Carson Soucy* | Pos: D | Shot: L | Age: 26

     Contract – $2,750,000 cap hit through 2022-23

     5-yr outlook – Games: 333  Goals: 24  Assists: 43  EH xGAR: 7.1

     Other players considered – Marcus Johansson (UFA), Nick Bjugstad (UFA)

Similar to the situation with the Buffalo pick, Seattle’s original selection, Carson Soucy, was clearly correct. This is in part because the player ultimately provided solid production in the years ahead and in part because the Wild had little else to offer beyond unrestricted free agents and goalie Kaapo Kähkönen, who flamed out.

As with Borgen, my goal would be to find an immediate taker for Soucy in return for real draft capital. Failing that, he could start in (unfortunate) healthy-scratch territory. The priority would then be to communicate the situation with the player and continue to seek a trade over time. Soucy is good enough that a worthwhile trade should materialize at some point even if we cannot “predict” it under our rules.

Montreal Canadiens – Cale Fleury* | Pos: D | Shot: R | Age: 22

     Contract – RFA (signed to $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 59  Goals: 1  Assists: 4  EH xGAR: 8.8

     Other players considered – Brett Kulak, Jonathan Drouin, Charlie Lindgren (UFA)

I considered going with Brett Kulak—another capable, above-average defenseman available in this draft—but like Soucy and Borgen before him, he wasn’t going to crack the lineup, and we’d be looking for an immediate trade. Similar to my calculus in avoiding the Chicago defensemen, an overabundance of drafted blueliners becomes untenable and detrimental to the team’s leverage at a certain point.

In contrast, the team’s original pick, Cale Fleury, can serve as solid blue-line depth. As we know, he’d make it through waivers to spend time in the AHL and eventually earn an extra role with the NHL team. As one of the younger eligible players, having Fleury as a “next wave” and contingency plan is valuable.

Jonathan Drouin bounced back and offered some offensive value in the years ahead, but I couldn’t quite bring myself to take on the contract, particularly with other suspect offensive spends already on the books, like Henrique.

Nashville Predators – Matt Duchene | Pos: C | Shot: L | Age: 30

     Contract – $8,000,000 cap hit through 2025-26

     5-yr outlook – Games: 368  Goals: 136  Assists: 198  EH xGAR: 56.7

     Other players considered – Yakov Trenin, Erik Haula (UFA), Mikael Granlund (UFA), Connor Ingram

In hindsight, Nashville had a number of valuable forwards to offer, a scarce thing in this draft. Seattle’s original pick, Calle Jarnkrok, was not a bad one, but he didn’t crack the top handful of options when I was whittling it down with the benefit of hindsight.

If you recall, Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen were two big-contract forwards coming off down seasons that seemed to bring a lot of risk at draft time. As it turns out, both players bounced back to provide positive value in the short term.

Between them, Duchene, with his 43 goals in the 2021-22 season, is the clear choice and a linchpin of our re-draft. He’s our first-line offensive center for the inaugural era. He’s below average in that capacity, all things considered, but it could be argued that the actual Kraken have not had any first-line center throughout their existence. Duchene brings needed offensive punch and a fighting chance at the playoffs in Year 1. (Even after his stellar 2021-22 season, Duchene would go on to average 24 goals per season over the final four years of his contract.)

New Jersey Devils – Scott Wedgewood | Pos: G  | Age: 28

     Contract – $825,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 159  GAA: 2.58  Save %: .911  EH GSAx: 36.78 

     Other players considered – A.J. Greer

Wedgewood has emerged since the Expansion Draft as a productive tandem goalie. He’s not going to dominate, but there weren’t any other options materially better. He’d come to Seattle on just a one-year contract, but would be an early extension candidate if he posted an approximately average 2021-22 season, as he did for New Jersey in reality.

Bastian may have also been considered in this spot, but for our hindsight perspective on his actual dissatisfaction playing for the Kraken. Greer has been better than Bastian anyway and would have been a good depth-forward pickup but for the need for a goalie.

New York Islanders – Jordan Eberle* | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 31

     Contract – $5,500,000 cap hit through 2023-24

     5-yr outlook – Games: 361  Goals: 93  Assists: 139  EH xGAR: 36.4

     Other players considered – Kyle Palmieri (UFA), Parker Wotherspoon

Eberle maintained his productivity for the five post-draft seasons in Seattle and has ultimately ascended to the role of team captain. In this scenario, he may have taken over that formal leadership mantle even earlier and upped his overall production by playing next to a capable finishing center like Duchene. In hindsight, the Islanders didn’t have any other options even close to Eberle.

New York Rangers – Julien Gauthier | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 23

     Contract – $775,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 134  Goals: 17  Assists: 13  EH xGAR: 1.7

     Other players considered – Darren Raddysh

Gauthier is a depth fill-in who would project to spend most or all of the 2021-22 season in the AHL. These players are essential for the first few years, until the team has built a prospect pipeline. Raddysh is a right-shot defenseman who broke out in 2025-26. I didn’t go that route due to the depth of the class of available defensemen and because I find it unlikely the Kraken could hold onto this player long enough to take advantage of the breakout.

Ottawa Senators – Joey Daccord* | Pos: G | Age: 24

     Contract – $750,000 cap hit through 2022-23

     5-yr outlook – Games: 164  GAA: 2.80  Save %: .904  EH GSAx: 43.56

     Other players considered – Michael Amadio, Anton Forsberg (UFA)

Amadio has emerged as a quality middle-six forward and was quite tempting in a draft light on offensive impact. That said, the team’s actual pick, goalie Joey Daccord, remains the right pick. Daccord brings more value as a long-term starter or 1A goaltender. Add in Daccord’s leadership qualities, particularly through a couple of AHL playoff runs, and this was not a difficult choice.

Philadelphia Flyers – Shayne Gostisbehere | Pos: D | Shot: L | Age: 28

     Contract – $4,500,000 cap hit through 2022-23

     5-yr outlook – Games: 363  Goals: 57  Assists: 186  EH xGAR: 59.9

     Other players considered – James van Riemsdyk

There was negative discourse about Gostisbehere’s contract and defense at the time of the Expansion Draft, but he has carried on to show that he adds a ton of value with his offensive play driving from the backend. Particularly on a team that can give him a first-unit power-play role and an offense-favorable, sheltered third-pair position, he can move the needle. In this scenario, we build the blue line with that role in mind for Gostisbehere.

James van Riemsdyk was a much-discussed player ahead of the draft, and he ultimately had something of a middle-road outcome. He didn’t go off the rails as some feared, but he also didn’t produce quite to the level of the contract. He wouldn’t have been a terrible pick in retrospect, but we can make the offense work without him, so we avoid taking on that contract.

Pittsburgh Penguins – Marcus Pettersson | Pos: D | Shot: L | Age: 25

     Contract – $4,025,175 cap hit through 2024-25

     5-yr outlook – Games: 382  Goals: 14  Assists: 106  EH xGAR: 32.3

     Other players considered – Jason Zucker, Evan Rodrigues (UFA), Mark Jankowski, Zach Aston-Reese, Casey DeSmith

Back in 2021, Pettersson was an ascending, well-rounded defenseman, locked in for four years of his prime at a reasonable rate. Selected in tandem with Vince Dunn (see below), the Kraken would have the left side of their top-four defense corps locked in for the foreseeable future.

Though original pick Brandon Tanev brought value at times during his tenure in Seattle, he was not even in the top five or six most interesting Penguins players with the benefit of hindsight. I strongly considered Zucker to inject a little more offense into the inaugural team, but Pettersson being four years younger was just too appealing in the end.

San Jose Sharks – Jacob Middleton | Pos: D | Shot: L | Age: 25

     Contract – $725,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 367  Goals: 24  Assists: 67  EH xGAR: 7.4

     Other players considered – Ryan Donato

From a relatively limited set of options, two names stood out on San Jose’s unprotected list: defenseman Jake Middleton and forward Ryan Donato. Donato was ultimately non-tendered by the Sharks and went on to sign with Seattle in free agency, so there was no “need” in this hindsight draft to select Donato (more on Donato in a moment). That left Middleton, who is an above-average third-pair defenseman on a cheap contract. Middleton would likely serve as healthy-scratch depth and valuable insurance on a stacked Kraken blue line in Year 1.

St. Louis Blues – Vince Dunn* | Pos: D | Shot: L | Age: 24

     Contract – RFA (signed to $4,000,000 cap hit through 2022-23 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 356  Goals: 54  Assists: 174  EH xGAR: 41.6

     Other players considered – Jake Walman, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz (UFA)

In reality, the Kraken selected Vince Dunn, a young, high-upside defenseman. Dunn has proven that pick right. He has been one of the most valuable players left unprotected in 2021 and a stalwart on Seattle’s top pair (in the post-Giordano era, at least). He remains one of the three-or-four most valuable players obtained by the Kraken in this re-draft.

Tarasenko was a popular name at the time as one of the few “first-line” forwards available. He had taken a step back, was on a big contract, and there were injury questions casting doubt on whether he’d be worth it. In fact, Tarasenko likely was “worth it” as an offense-first player. But his defense has always been quite poor, and there were enough other options out there to avoid sacrificing the team’s defensive identity. Plus, Dunn is just a younger and better player. So, it was easy in the end. Similar to the situation with the Pittsburgh pick, I couldn’t justify moving to an older, slightly lesser player just because he could bring frontline scoring.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Yanni Gourde* | Pos: C/F | Shot: L | Age: 29

     Contract – $5,166,666 cap hit through 2024-25

     5-yr outlook – Games: 374  Goals: 62  Assists: 126  EH xGAR: 30.2

     Other players considered – Alex Killorn, Ross Colton, Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman (UFA)

Yanni Gourde was the on-ice standard-bearer and an off-ice leader for the Seattle Kraken for the length of his tenure. He was the team’s best player in a forgettable inaugural season and the driver of perhaps the best third line in hockey during the team’s second year. In some sense, he’s the only right pick from Tampa Bay.

That said, Tampa Bay had a lot to offer. I was at least momentarily tempted to pivot toward Alex Killorn, a top-six winger who continued to score in our five-year sample, and Ross Colton, a younger, ascending bottom-six player.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Jared McCann* | Pos: F | Shot: L | Age: 25

     Contract – $2,940,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 367  Goals: 138  Assists: 145  EH xGAR: 80.9

     Other players considered – Zach Hyman (UFA), Frederik Andersen (UFA)

The easiest choice in this entire exercise is to draft Jared McCann again. According to Evolving Hockey, no other player eligible to be selected in the Expansion Draft has generated more on-ice shot-quality value than McCann. He is second only to Duchene in total points among unprotected players with team control at the time of the draft. McCann was a home-run pick then and the only choice again in retrospect. It’s chilling to think of what the Kraken’s first five years might have looked like without McCann.

Vancouver Canucks – Jalen Chatfield | Pos: D | Shot: R | Age: 25

     Contract – RFA (signed to $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22 post-draft)

     5-yr outlook – Games: 317  Goals: 23  Assists: 52  EH xGAR: 26

     Other players considered – Jimmy Vesey (UFA), Kole Lind*

Though he had yet to break out at draft time, Chatfield is a young right-shot defenseman who went on to prove with Carolina that he could more than hold his own in a bottom-four role. He’s a depth seventh or eighth defenseman for the 2021-22 season, with an eye toward taking over a third-pair role a year or two down the line.

Washington Capitals – Garnet Hathaway | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 29

     Contract – $1,500,000 cap hit through 2022-23

     5-yr outlook – Games: 375  Goals: 45  Assists: 44  EH xGAR: 38

     Other players considered – Vitek Vanecek*, Nic Dowd, Brenden Dillon

Hathaway is a hard-to-play-against, defense-first, bottom-six player who can handle heavy penalty-kill minutes. His hitting, energy, and all-around hard-nosed approach fills the void created by passing on Tanev.

The original pick, goalie Vitek Vanecek, has some merit here. He has proven to be more like a backup-quality goalie over the course of his career, but that’s still a good player to have, particularly as insurance in Year 1. If there were a reasonable path toward keeping three goalies on the NHL roster, I may have done it.

Winnipeg Jets – Dylan DeMelo | Pos: D | Shot: R | Age: 28

     Contract – $3,000,000 cap hit through 2023-24

     5-yr outlook – Games: 397  Goals: 15  Assists: 95  EH xGAR: 16

     Other players considered – Jansen Harkins

DeMelo is a quality, prime-aged right-shot defenseman on a bargain contract (three years, $3 million AAV remaining). He’s an easy choice and would be a stalwart in the top four for the Kraken.

The Kraken’s real pick, Mason Appleton, had facts to recommend him at the time, but the fit in Seattle did not work.

* * *

Free Agency – Jaden Schwartz | Pos: F | Shot: L | Age: 29

     Contract – $5,500,000 cap hit through 2025-26

     5-yr outlook – Games: 301  Goals: 79  Assists: 89  EH xGAR: 11.7

Free Agency – Ryan Donato | Pos: F | Shot: R | Age: 25

     Contract – $750,000 cap hit through 2021-22

     5-yr outlook – Games: 385  Goals: 88  Assists: 92  EH xGAR: 23.5

Following the completion of the expansion process, we would have the Kraken sign Donato and Schwartz. Donato was a significant net positive in his first season, providing valuable depth goal scoring on a minimum contract. Schwartz missed a good deal of time over five years. But this re-drafted team needed another top-nine forward, and Schwartz always contributed when he was out there. It’s not a great contract to have, but maybe a necessary one.

Marcus Johansson was another cheap, quality signing that I considered, but with the benefit of hindsight, we can commit to Geekie as an offense-first winger in lieu of bringing in the veteran Swede.

Alex Wennberg was a very useful player for the Kraken, but with the selection of Henrique (and to a lesser extent Compher), there was just no place for him in the lineup. For a while, I considered staying away from Henrique in favor of signing Wennberg again. But I landed where I did to generate more offense.

Contrasting narratives

The talking points surrounding this version of the Seattle Kraken going into Year 1 would have been quite different from what we actually got. In contrast with the praise for acquiring Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, analysts would have (fairly) wondered whether this Seattle team had even one tandem-quality goaltender.

Beyond that, pundits would have questioned whether the Kraken erred in betting big on the risky, high-priced Matt Duchene and Adam Henrique. In comparison with the real Kraken draft, which eschewed any “bad” contracts, there would have been a narrative that Seattle may have made mistakes there.

Recapping the draft

Assuming that some type of pre-season trade can materialize for Soucy and Borgen, our expansion process gets us the following 23-man roster (plus one player on IR) to begin the season:

If trades prove impossible for some reason, Will Borgen and Jake Middleton would likely go to waivers, and the team would likely lose both. Soucy would be a healthy scratch to start.

On the other hand, based on real-world events, it’s likely that the following players would make it through waivers for inaugural-season AHL assignment:

Assuming Borgen and Soucy are out, the team’s five-year cap sheet would look like this:

This team would project to score in the range of 250 to 260 goals, which would be around league average. On the defensive side of things, the goaltending would be below average in Year 1. But the blue line should be a strength, probably ranking in the top quarter of the league.

All told, could this be a Year 1 playoff team? It’s close. The team should at least be in contention down the stretch.

What we learned

The Kraken left some future value on the table with their Expansion Draft picks. This is not surprising for a team notoriously bereft of a crystal ball.

That said, even a “best-case scenario” of draft picks and free-agent signings like the one set forth above yields only a competitive team, not a first-year Stanley Cup Finalist. This underscores that without a fundamentally different or more creative approach, a Vegas-style outcome wasn’t really on the table.

Could the team have been more inventive? I suspect so, but we cannot say that definitively. We just do not know what the conversations with other teams (and players) looked like at the time. It’s reasonable to believe other teams were more circumspect after dealing with Vegas years earlier.

Regardless, I hope you enjoyed that trip down memory lane as much as I did. Did it spur any thoughts for you? What would you have done differently? Let us know in the comments below.