Last month, we examined the top 300 NHL-affiliated skater prospects using only scoring data and other quantifiable measures. Today, we have a follow-on look at the top 30 NHL-affiliated goalie prospects. We’ll also have a post script addressing how the goalie rankings affect our earlier ranking of the 32 team prospect pools. Let’s dive in.

Goalie list eligibility

To be eligible for this list, the goalie (1) must be on the roster or reserve list of an NHL team, (2) must be younger than 25 years old as of Sep. 1, 2026, and (3) cannot have appeared in more than 30 NHL games. These thresholds are slightly different than those used for skater prospects, but intended to track inherent differences in goalie development timelines and goalie games played patterns. The approach yielded 137 goalies. The full list will be made available to Sound Of Hockey Patreon members shortly.

As with our skater analysis, this list is not a traditional scouting assessment of goalies. Instead, our goal was to build a list based only on quantifiable measures. The hope is that it would be a valuable supplement (but not a replacement for) the scouting and analytical work on prospects being published by other sources like Elite Prospects. Ideally, it is revealing in its areas of agreement or disagreement with the work of traditional scouting services. Keep scrolling down for a deep dive on our list-making methodology.

Top 30 NHL-affiliated goalie prospects

There are a few names near the top of the list that frequently surface on scouting assessments of top NHL-affiliated goalies, including Jacob Fowler, Sergei Murashov, and Joshua Ravensbergen to name a few. At the same time there are a few (typically European) goalies who are less-frequently discussed. These goalies include Semyon Vyazovoi and Kim Saarinen of the Seattle Kraken, Yevgeni Volokhin of the Montreal Canadiens, and, to some extent, Dmitri Gamzin of the New York Islanders.

Revisiting our prospect pool rankings

When accounting for these goalie prospects as well, we’d make some minor adjustments near the top of our prospect pool rankings. With two top-ten goaltenders, the Utah Mammoth (previously #5) would leapfrog the Nashville Predators and land at No. 4 overall, joining the S Tier. With two top-five goalies, the Kraken (previously #8) would move up to No. 7 on the list, joining the A Tier. And, finally, the Canadiens (previously #14) would move up to No. 8 and also join the A Tier on the strength of their two top-ten goalies.

Goalie analysis methodology

What does our data-only analysis involve? For our analysis of skaters, we used scoring points adjusted first and foremost with an NHL equivalency (“NHLe”). NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. (I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe.) We then made additional adjustments linked to probable NHL success.

For goalies, we look to the best efficacy indicator we have: save percentage. If we had detailed shot type and location data for non-NHL leagues we could employ a more sophisticated expected goals model for both skaters and goalies. Absent that information, the best we can do is to adjust save percentage for league context. We did this with a two-step process.

First, we calculated each goalie’s 2025-26 season goals saved above average (“GSAA”). This begins by calculating the league average save percentage for each league. By multiplying this figure times the total number of shots a goalie faced, you generate an “average” number of goals allowed for that goalie. You then net that figure from the goalie’s actual goals allowed and you have the goalie’s GSAA. (Again, this differs from “goals saved above expected” because it does not account for the specific context of where those shots were coming from. This can vary from goalie to goalie and team to team based on quality of skater defense and other factors. But GSAA is the best we can do with public data.)

Second, we need to make an adjustment for the strength of league because we know that 10 goals saved above expected in the AHL is more impressive and predictive of NHL success than a similar figure in the WHL, for example. Presumably, analysts could develop a similar “NHLe” for goalie prospect save percentage, but that research is not well developed in the public sphere. For our crude purposes, we used the traditional skater NHLe as a stand in for league strength.

From there, we made further adjustments linked to goalie success rates, beginning with height and age. We also made a minor adjustment to level up the GSAA (which is counting statistic) for the small handful of goalies playing in leagues with relatively short schedules. For our purposes, that resulted in a small enhancement for the NCAA goalies only.

As with our skater presentation, only one team-season of data is shown in the list above for each player. It should be the highest level reached where the player played at least ten games. That said, if a goalie split his season between multiple teams and/or leagues, all of that save data is accounted for in the ranking.

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Did we miss a player? Do you have any questions? Reach out to us in the comments below or on Twitter/X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.

Header photo of Kim Saarinen by Brian Liesse.