Based on published reports and our understanding, the team engaged in at least exploratory conversations with pending unrestricted free agents Jared McCann and Vince Dunn over the summer. This is to be expected, as both became eligible for contract extensions on July 1.

Regardless of the team’s ultimate intention, gathering information regarding the players’ interest in staying with the Kraken and expected contract parameters is a wise move. Vince Dunn opened the door for a new contract in talking with Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown last week: “My heart is with Seattle. I would love to retire as a Kraken.” Our belief is that Jared McCann is receptive to extending in Seattle as well, after he raved about playing for the Kraken during the preseason.

“Everybody who plays here loves it,” McCann said. “Even guys that have moved on to other teams, they even say to us that this was an amazing place to play. Our fans are great, I mean, look at the facilities we have around, right?

“The team does whatever they can to make the players feel comfortable, make the families feel comfortable, and we added some pieces on the management side of it. I wish I had a straight answer for you when it comes to why guys don’t want to be here, but I don’t.”

Today, we’ll investigate probable deal structure targets for each player. We’ll do this by examining comparable player contracts signed over the last four years. These results can inform the next discussion—one that will likely evolve over the next few months—whether or not a contract in the projected range is advisable for the team.

Let’s dive in.

Jared McCann

Profile

30 years old | 6-foot-1 | left-shot forward | $5 million AAV contract with 2027 expiry

Reference statistics

2025-26 season: 52 games | 20 goals | 40 points
Career: 724 games | 205 goals | 443 points

Market comparables

When it comes to veteran free-agent forwards, age and scoring production in the player’s last season before free agency are the most important predictive factors. After that, a player’s playing and production track record is also significant data to consider. To formulate McCann’s market comparables, we created ranges centered around his age (29-to-32 years old), free-agent season scoring rate (53 to 74 points per 82 games), career scoring rate (40 to 62 points per 82 games), and career games played total (600 to 840). This approach generated a list of six comparable player contracts signed since 2022:

Analysis

McCann’s sample averaged 4.3 years of term at 6.47 percent of the cap in the first contract year. With next year’s cap projected at $113 million, this puts the average annual value at $7.3 million and McCann’s total cash target at approximately $31.6 million. This suggests to me two probable deal structures: (a) four years, $8 million AAV, or (b) five years, $6.5 million AAV. These contracts are “in range” of the comparables but modestly above them to account for the rising cap and the Kraken’s position in the competitiveness cycle.

In terms of internal cap hierarchy, the average annual value of both contract structures would exceed Bobby McMann’s deal but fall just short of McCann’s total dollar value over six years. This would seem to be a workable compromise for two players who project similarly on the ice over the next few years.

The shorter contract would slot McCann as the highest AAV on the team, just above Beniers. The longer contract would slot McCann second, just below Beniers, which may be appealing to the team. On the other hand, it would keep the player on the salary cap into his decline phase alongside other veterans who will decline, like McMann and Chandler Stephenson.

Projected contract

Four years, $8 million AAV (two-year NTC; two-year modified NTC).

Vince Dunn

Profile

29 years old | 6-foot-1 | left-shot defenseman | $7.35 million AAV contract with 2027 expiry

Reference statistics

2025-26 season: 81 games | 11 goals | 44 points | 18:28 5-on-5 ATOI
Career: 627 games | 87 goals | 334 points | 16:46 5-on-5 ATOI

Market comparables

In addition to the metrics referenced for McCann, average time on ice is an indicator of role and market value for defensemen. Though it may seem counterintuitive in a certain light, the market is almost certain to value a half-point-per-game defenseman who plays 21 minutes a night more than one who scores the same total in fewer minutes. The higher minute totals are reflective of role difficulty, which is an important factor in evaluating a defenseman.

To formulate Dunn’s market comparables, we created ranges centered around Dunn’s age (28-to-31 years old), free-agent season scoring rate (33 to 53 points per 82 games), free-agent season average time on ice (17:00-19:45 5-on-5 ATOI), career scoring rate (33 to 53 points per 82 games), and career games played total (500 to 740). This approach generated a list of eight comparable player contracts signed since 2022:

Analysis

Dunn’s sample averaged 6.4 years of term at 7.41 percent of the cap in the first contract year. With next year’s cap projected at $113 million, this puts the average annual value at $8.4 million and Dunn’s total cash target at approximately $53.4 million.

For obvious reasons, one player stands out as particularly important from this comparable group: Brandon Montour. Montour signed with the Kraken at age 30.5 (similar to Dunn’s age next summer) and a comparable free-agent season (40 points in 82 games, compared with 43 points per 82 games for Dunn). Montour’s contract was worth 8.12 percent of the Year 1 cap, which would equate to $9.2 million annually for Dunn on his new deal.

The room for compromise between player and team may be to bump Dunn’s average cap percentage closer to Montour’s in exchange for a “shorter” five- or six-year term. A six-year, $9 million AAV contract would put Dunn considerably above Montour in total dollars and average annual value while leaving him just short of Montour in term and cap percentage.

Projected contract

Six years, $9 million AAV (three-year NTC, three-year modified NTC).

Concluding thoughts

As mentioned, the most important factor driving contracts is the player’s scoring production in the year before free agency. As we get closer to the NHL Trade Deadline, the player’s 2026-27 season will become the primary focus. This introduces risk for both sides because the contract comparables could look very different in March 2027.

At the same time, while delay introduces health risk for Dunn and McCann, the closer the player gets to free agency, the larger the premium the player would likely expect to account for the rising salary cap. I would not be surprised at all if the price tags looked more like $9 million annually for McCann and $10 million annually for Dunn after the calendar flips to 2027.

If you’re the Kraken, are you moving to re-sign either of these players now? How about at the Trade Deadline? From my vantage, neither projected contract alters my baseline thought on this question. Ideally, Seattle gathers more information about the direction of the NHL team and defers the decision to late 2026 or early 2027.