A new month brings a new installment and a return to a familiar name. Last month, I increased the points target to 97 points to account for the new 84-game schedule, but Path to the Playoffs just didn’t have the same ring to it. A reader named Nino suggested Skate to 98, and I have to admit, it is catchy. But 98 points feels a little high for the target.

I went back and reviewed all 11 full seasons since 2013-14, when the current wild-card playoff format was introduced, then normalized each season to 84 games. This excludes shortened seasons due to the COVID pandemic. A 95-point pace would have been enough to make the playoffs in seven of those 11 seasons. That makes 95 points a realistic benchmark. So, after a one-month hiatus, Strive for 95 is back.

All stats in this article are through Oct. 31.

October review

The Seattle Kraken came out swinging in October and surprised plenty of people outside Kraken Nation. Seattle jumped to an 8-5-1 record, getting contributions from its offense, goaltending and defense. The Kraken sit third in the Pacific Division, behind the Vegas Golden Knights and first-place Edmonton Oilers.

One trend has emerged through the first month. Seattle has allowed an opponent to tie the game in the third period five times. In four of those games, the Kraken held a lead of two or more goals. Washington was the lone exception, with Seattle leading by one before giving that lead away, then recovering to win. On the surface, that seems troubling, but there is another way to look at it.

“We’re getting into a position where we’re able to give up a multi-goal lead and still win,” coach Lane Lambert said. “We’ve got to continue to play the game the same way that got us the lead, and that comes with a little bit of experience, a little bit of time. What it says about our team’s resilience in these situations, it says a lot.”

Beyond those five games, Seattle has carried a lead into the third period eight times this season. The Kraken have won all eight. Opponents have erased some of those advantages, but no team has managed to take the lead. The Kraken have found ways to respond and secure the win.

Seattle is also averaging 3.57 goals per game, ninth best in the NHL. Last season, the Kraken ranked 28th at 2.73 goals per game.

Target pace update

The Playoff Bound tier gave the Kraken trouble in October, with games against Vegas, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay. These were expected to be difficult matchups, and Seattle went 0-2-1. The 6-2 loss to Vegas and 5-1 loss to Minnesota were rough and two of the worst outcomes of the season. The Kraken did salvage one point in a 4-3 overtime loss to Tampa Bay, which left them just one point short of the monthly target for this tier.

Seattle exceeded expectations against the Bubble tier, earning 10 points against a nine-point target. That made up for the point lost against the target for the Playoff Bound tier. Against the Tanker tier, Seattle went 3-1 and earned six points, right on target.

Last month, the target was 97 points for the season and 17 points in October. The Kraken hit that target, putting them on a 98-point pace and three points ahead of the reinstated Strive for 95 target.

Updated team tiers

Expect more movement between tiers early in the season, with teams settling into their respective groups. Things will solidify more as the season goes on.

Notes on tier movement

Playoff Bound tier

Boston Bruins: The Bruins have ridden strong goaltending from Jeremy Swayman and a 6-1-0 home record to a strong start. Boston is the only team moving into the Playoff Bound tier this month.

Bubble tier

Toronto Maple Leafs: Toronto started in the Tanker tier last month. Despite an active offseason, the Maple Leafs still needed to prove they could compete. They are just outside a playoff spot but have a winning 8-6-2 record. Toronto and Vancouver were the only teams to play 16 games in October, so most teams have games in hand. Nonetheless, Toronto can score. The Maple Leafs are averaging 3.75 goals per game, third best in the NHL.

New York Rangers: The Rangers are 6-1-0 at home, including wins against Tampa Bay twice and Utah. They have been almost the opposite on the road at 1-5-1. Since losing Igor Shesterkin for the season, New York has gone 3-4-1. The Rangers have enough talent to stay on the Bubble, but they could just as easily drop back down.

Calgary Flames: After losing their first five games, the Flames found their groove and some hot goaltending, going 6-3 over their next nine games, including wins over Carolina and Minnesota and crushing the Kraken on Friday. Calgary could easily fall back into the Tanker tier if the goaltending cools off. And that’s very possible with Devin Cooley injured.

Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, and Vegas Golden Knights: All three teams are playing well, but none are dominating their division. They remain legitimate Stanley Cup contenders and sit near the top of the Bubble tier. We will see what November has in store for all three. Seattle does not face any of these teams this month.

Tanker tier

Philadelphia Flyers: After reaching the second round of the playoffs last season, Philadelphia hoped for a better start. Instead, the Flyers enter November last in the Eastern Conference after a historically bad start and land in the Tanker tier.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus held the final wild-card spot on April 1 last season. Somehow, the Blue Jackets missed the playoffs by seven points over the final two weeks. Columbus has played only 12 games, tied for the fewest in the NHL. Still, a 5-7 start does not inspire confidence that this team is ready to take the next step.

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings went winless in their first five games and enter November with a .385 points percentage. Last season, Los Angeles tied for seventh best in goals against at 2.90 per game. That helped cover an offense that ranked 29th at 2.68 goals per game.

This season, the Kings rank 27th in goals against at 3.46 per game. Their scoring remains similar at 2.77 goals per game. That combination lands them in the Tanker tier.

Tier Targets

Because of four-day breaks before and after the NHL Global Series, Seattle will play only 10 games in November. The Global Series games are scheduled for Nov. 12 and 14.

Playoff Bound tier (target: two points)

Four of those 10 games come against the top two teams in the NHL. Seattle plays the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes twice and the Edmonton Oilers twice. There are reasons for optimism in both matchups.

The Global Series could feature as many as six Finnish players based on the current rosters. Carolina has Sebastian Aho, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Juuso Välimäki. Seattle has Kaapo Kakko, Ville Ottavainen, and Jani Nyman. The four-day break could give Seattle more time to bond as a team and rest before its Global Series matchups.

Seattle faces Edmonton in a home-and-home back-to-back to close November. The Kraken visit Edmonton on Nov. 27 before hosting the Oilers the following night. Seattle played well in its first meeting with Edmonton, but a fluky bounce off the boards landed on Leon Draisaitl’s stick for the go-ahead goal with 2:27 remaining.

Edmonton leads the NHL at 4.21 goals per game, but Seattle held the Oilers to one goal for most of that game. If the Kraken can replicate that effort, they have a good chance to come away with points.

Bubble tier (target: five points)

The Kraken have four games against the Bubble tier. They face the New York Rangers and three Pacific Division opponents: Calgary, Anaheim, and San Jose. The Ducks, Flames, and Rangers sit toward the lower end of the Bubble tier. That does not mean these games will be easy, but Seattle has a legitimate chance to do some damage.

A sweep of the Bubble tier is within reach and would earn the Kraken all eight points. All but the San Jose game will be played at home.

Tanker tier

To balance four games against the league’s top two teams, Seattle also gets the NHL’s bottom two teams. The Kraken host the Chicago Blackhawks and Vancouver Canucks with both games being played at Climate Pledge Arena.

Tier targets wrap-up

Seattle hit its 17-point target last month and is on a 98-point pace. That gives the Kraken a three-point buffer against the Strive for 95 target and lowers their November requirements across all three tiers. Seattle needs 10 points this month to stay on the Strive for 95 path, while 11 points would keep them moving along the more aggressive 98-point track.

Even if Seattle loses all four games against the Playoff Bound tier, the Kraken could still exceed the 10-point monthly target.

Marraskuu

November is not exactly the preferred month to travel to Finland. The Finnish word for November is marraskuu, with marras referring to something dead or dying. The Kraken should be riding high after an excellent October. Now they will try to keep winning through marraskuu.

Recency bias can leave a bad taste in your mouth. Three of Seattle’s lopsided losses came at natural endpoints during the month. The Kraken lost 6-2 to Vegas at the end of a homestand, 8-3 to Florida at the end of a road trip, and then suffered a 6-2 stinker in Calgary in their final game of October.

There is some good news in that pattern. After every previous regulation loss in October, Seattle responded by winning its next game. The Calgary loss is the lone exception, simply because the Kraken have not played again since.

Their next chance comes Wednesday at home against those same Flames. Seattle will have an opportunity to finish the season series with a win.