Coming off a 1-4-0 road trip, we assemble to discuss the state of the Seattle Kraken in a dark hour. What has gone right? What has gone wrong? How did we get here? Where do the Kraken go from here? Can it improve?

We dive into those questions and more in an early season Sound Of Hockey Roundtable Discussion.

Let’s find a positive

Curtis Isacke: Let’s start on a positive one. What has gone right for the Kraken so far this season? Darren, as our resident optimist, why don’t you go first?

Darren Brown: A positive… A positive… Hmm…

Well, I think goaltending has been pretty good in general, so that’s nice, but without goal scoring, it’s fairly moot. So, I’ll go in this direction: it’s still relatively early in the season, and winning streaks can happen in the same way that losing streaks do. There are ups and downs in every campaign, and perhaps Seattle is just in a rut right now that they will break out of in the relative near future. 

The fact of the matter is that the 2022-23 team never had a losing streak of greater than three games, and the Kraken just surpassed that with their fourth straight ‘L.’ So, that stings and makes me wonder if this team is actually closer to the 2023-24 team than I originally thought. 

Having a rut like this happen at this stage–if this just ends up being a blip on the radar and a relative low point in the season–is better than having it happen later on. The Kraken remain right in the thick of things in the Pacific Division for now, but it is true that they need to start winning some games. 

John Barr: I will talk about the goaltending. I’m not prepared to say the goalies have been outstanding, but I think they have been very solid—solid enough to win games. Joey Daccord appears to have established himself as the starter with a .915 save percentage. Philipp Grubauer’s numbers don’t look as strong, but he has still played well. Even in the most recent game against Colorado, where he allowed five goals, they were all quality goals, with three coming on the power play. Sure, you’d like to see him steal a game now and then, but goaltending isn’t the reason they’re losing right now.

Curtis: I agree, John, the goaltending situation looks as stable as it has ever been during the four years of the Kraken. Last year, Daccord had a very strong run of games, but there were questions about the health and productivity of the backups during that time–and about wearing Joey out. Right now I think both goalies are giving the team a chance to win and neither should get overused.

I’ll add to that the play of the young cornerstone centers, Matty Beniers and Shane Wright. The production hasn’t quite been there yet, but they’re both playing fast and with strong, subtle contributions. Wright hasn’t been put in a favorable offensive context recently, but my enthusiasm for him hasn’t dampened. And Beniers looks much more decisive and agile through the neutral zone this year, which has allowed him to weaponize his puck-handling skill with more regularity.

Blaiz Grubic: The Kraken have dominated against weaker opponents, decisively beating Montreal, Philadelphia, and Nashville by a combined score of 21-9. They’ve proven they can score (depending on the night)—and score in bunches. With a relatively easier remaining schedule ahead in November, these offensive surges are something they can build on.

Tough road trip

Curtis: This recent road trip through Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, Boston, and Colorado was a tough one, with Seattle taking only the first game against the Canadiens. Is there one factor that stands out as the primary reason Seattle went 1-4-0 on the trip? John, you’re up first this time.

John: I’ll leave the scoring topic for someone else, but I want to point out that the team has often been trailing early in games. When a team is struggling, giving up the first goal can feel devastating, forcing them to play from behind. Colorado’s first goal against the Kraken on Tuesday marked the 10th time this season—leading the league—that the Kraken have allowed the first goal.

Curtis: Again, good point, John. When you add in the manner in which the first goals were scored–late in the period or on relatively low-danger looks–the psychological challenge associated with coming back builds. Which brings me to another point: I don’t think the team has responded particularly well in the immediate wake of getting scored upon. I thought the team was competitive through the first period in Toronto and then gave up a goal with 4.7 seconds left, came out flat to start the second, and gave up a second goal quickly. A similar dynamic played out in Boston–the team really flatlined after giving up the first point shot goal. It’s hard to win if you’re letting a negative shift affect your next.

Darren: I’ll take the bait on scoring. I keep talking about two seasons ago, but this team has not consistently recaptured the offensive magic that it showed in 2022-23. That year, it seemed like a different player or line would step up (almost) every night and get the crucial goal when Seattle needed it. 

Of course, it took the 2022-23 group a while to build that confidence, so maybe this current iteration is still getting there. And, to be fair, Seattle currently ranks 21st in the NHL in goals for per game (improved from 29th last season), but that’s still not enough production, and a lot of the goals have also been lumped into a few high-scoring victories. 

It was good to see them get a few against Colorado after scoring just one total goal in the previous three games, but they were again chasing throughout, as John pointed out. They need to figure out how to spend more time possessing the puck, and less time chasing other teams around the ice. 

Blaiz: Head coach Dan Bylsma often talks about “connected play,” but from the eye test, the Kraken have looked very disconnected in their recent losses. They seem rushed to make passes, with no one nearby to receive them, leading to frequent turnovers. When they do manage to set up in the offensive zone, they keep the puck near the boards and struggle to get it into high-danger scoring areas. According to moneypuck.com, the Kraken are 31st in the league with only 31 high-danger shots; only the Detroit Red Wings have fewer, with 27.

On the power play, while the Kraken have players positioned in the bumper and at the net front, they still rely heavily on getting the puck to the wings for their preferred shot. Shane Wright has consistently been in the bumper spot but has zero high-danger shots on the power play. That’s not due to a lack of shooting, but because the Kraken aren’t getting the puck inside. 

What’s gone wrong?

Curtis: Assuming the Kraken have fallen short of your expectations so far, what has gone wrong more generally? Or are things more-or-less what you expected?

I’ll take this one to begin. Of course, the inability to generate quality looks on offense when other teams effectively take away rush chances is glaring. But I want to introduce defense into the conversation. The team’s continued defensive lapses, particularly net front, have been concerning because I don’t see a talent-level explanation for it. I counted at least five instances on the trip where both defensemen (or both defensemen and the center) get caught on one side of the ice in the defensive zone, leaving a backside player unchecked for a chance. These mistakes could be covered by a collapsing winger, but the defensive awareness just isn’t there.  

Bob Woods’ defenses in Minnesota succeeded by shrouding the middle and forcing the opponent to stay outside, but this defense feels like it’s always chasing and opening holes for attack. 

Likewise, the penalty kill has been bafflingly conservative to the point of stagnation–posing little resistance in the defensive zone as the opponent works to get into its preferred look.

Blaiz: Yes, they have fallen short, but their overall point total isn’t far off the pace for a playoff team, as I’ve been tracking in the Strive for 95 (points) posts. The Kraken’s performance against the top tier (“Playoff Bound”) has been 0-6-1. In seven games against this tier, they’ve managed just 10 goals. The Kraken need to find a way to generate offense against the league’s top teams.

John: It may sound cliché, and you often hear players describing their play this season in similar terms, but the team needs to deliver more consistent 60-minute efforts. Even in losses, there are moments when they seem to be skating well and keeping pace with their opponents, but an early lapse or a period where they come out flat can doom them. We saw this clearly in the season opener against St. Louis: the Kraken dominated for 55 minutes, but the Blues scored three goals in under three minutes during a key lapse.

Darren: I agree with all of you. All of those things have gone wrong. 

Playoffs? We talkin’ about playoffs?

Curtis: As of Wednesday morning, MoneyPuck has the Kraken playoff odds at 10.7 percent. Before the Colorado game, HockeyViz had Seattle projected to finish 12th in the West and miss the playoffs, and The Athletic had the team in a longshot bracket to make the playoffs at about a 10 percent chance. Do these numbers jive with your view of the team right now? How do you view the team’s playoff prospects? Or do you reject the idea of playoff odds discussion 14 games into the season? Blaiz, you get this one first.

Blaiz: It’s still too early to make a definitive call after only one month of play. In the Strive for 95 (points) posts, I’ve assigned point percentages for how many they should rack up against each team tier: Playoff Bound = 45 percent, Bubble = 58 percent, and Tankers = 75 percent. Based on this formula, the Kraken are currently on pace for 91 points. In the last 10 full seasons, 91 points has secured a playoff spot 40 percent of the time. November brings an easier schedule: the Kraken will face six Tanker teams, four Bubble teams, and just one Playoff Bound team. With the season’s longest homestand starting Friday, it’s a prime opportunity to turn things around and build some offensive confidence.

Darren: Yeah, I tend to not worry too much about what national rankings say, because they don’t pay attention to the Kraken like we do. I think they’re better than they’ve shown so far, but eventually they do need to start proving it to make anyone–locally or nationally–start believing they can make it. I still think they’re a playoff team, but I’m less certain of that now than I was a week ago. 

John: It feels like a long shot—not because public sites have done the math, but because the team hasn’t shown the consistency and effort you’d expect from a playoff team.

Curtis: I came into this question prepared to suggest that Seattle’s season may be on the line in November, but Blaiz, you convinced me it’s true. The Kraken need to make headway in the standings in the upcoming favorable context. As of Nov. 6, Seattle is 13th in the West by points percentage. The Kraken are just four points out of the playoffs, but there are five teams between them and a spot. I’d put the end-of-month benchmark at just two teams between them and the playoffs. If they can get to that position or better, we may yet get a real hockey season.

Reasons to believe there will be improvement

Curtis: Looking for silver linings at this low point, is there something that has you feeling optimistic about the team moving forward? Darren, back to you.

Darren: Well, they were looking pretty good before Vince Dunn went out, and his injury last season also seemed to be when things took a permanently negative turn. In theory, he is eligible to return on Nov. 12, which would give the Kraken back their two-headed offensive defenseman monster of Dunn and Brandon Montour. 

BUT… Aside from the Kraken reassigning Cale Fleury, John Hayden, and Ryan Winterton to Coachella Valley on Wednesday (I believe this is just a salary cap move), I haven’t seen any indications that Dunn is preparing to return in six days. Put a pin in that.

Curtis: A couple things. First, the true talent level of this team is better than they are showing right now. It’s not this bad. They “should” be able to defend well, and there is enough skill to get closer to league average on offense if the coaching staff can push the right buttons. Add in the solid goaltending, and this team ought to be competitive most nights. Second, I’ll circle back to the promise of young forwards Beniers and Wright. Based on what I’m seeing right now, I’m confident their production will trend upwards for the balance of the season. If you can add in blue line production from a healthy Dunn to complement the excellent Montour, things could look much better two months from now. The question is, will the team still be in it by then?

Blaiz: I have two reasons for optimism. First, the November schedule should help a lot—playing Columbus, Chicago, Anaheim (twice), and San Jose (twice) gives them a good chance to turn things around. Second, while I don’t like seeing Oliver Bjorkstrand as a healthy scratch, I love the message the coaching staff is sending. It didn’t get them points against the Avalanche, but it sparked their offense to three goals after being shut out in the previous two games, which is something they can build on.

John: Blaiz nailed it. November. Not only are there some favorable matchups ahead, but potentially getting Dunn back should help create more scoring opportunities. Either way, we should know by the end of the month whether this team has any real chance.