Bummer. The Seattle Kraken, who are now 1-9-0 all time at the Edmonton Oilers, had every chance to win Saturday despite minimal puck possession in the first period, an issue exacerbated by taking three penalties and allowing the Oilers’ lethal power play to tilt the ice.
Seattle pushed back in the second, though, got a power-play goal from Bobby McMann to tie the game, and came within 2:27 of at least earning a point. But a bad bounce that landed on the stick of Leon Draisaitl and subsequently in the back of Seattle’s net ultimately did the Kraken in.
Bad break for the #SeaKraken. A rim attempt hits a bottom and caroms straight to Draisaitl on the doorstep.
“I think we deserved a better result when you see [goals] like that,” McMann said. “You sometimes realize that’s the game of hockey, and you want to put yourself in a position where maybe something like that doesn’t matter as much because you maybe have a goal up or something like that. So there’s always ways to counteract that, but yeah, those ones are always tough to see when a game’s so close, and you’ve been playing so well down the stretch towards the end of a game.”
Here are Three Takeaways from a hard-fought 3-1 Kraken loss at the Edmonton Oilers.
Takeaway 1: First-period penalty trouble
On Thursday in Calgary, the Kraken played a very disciplined game and used their speed to force the Flames into dumb penalties. The penalty-related tables turned dramatically in the first period Saturday, though, with the Oilers’ terrifying power play getting three chances in the opening frame.
The penalty kill came up big, backed by a couple of 10-bell saves from Philipp Grubauer, including this right-pad dazzler after Seattle let Vasily Podkolzin walk down Main Street and Leon Draisaitl threaded a pass through to him.
“First of all, we got some good kills, and we got some great saves by Grubi,” coach Lane Lambert said. “There wasn’t any rhythm in the first period. Some guys only played maybe two minutes. So once they started to get the rhythm going and the flow going a little bit, I thought we settled in quite nicely.”
Three successful kills in the opening period meant the Kraken were firmly on their heels for much of that frame, but in the closing minutes before the first horn, you could see them starting to find their game.
Indeed, they tilted things the other way for a good stretch of the second period, got the lone call of the frame in their favor, and took advantage with McMann’s snipe under the bar.
MCMANN CAN! 🎯 🚨
What a snipe. Seattle's first power play of the game was looking pretty sad, until a quick strike by Bobby McMann just under the bar.
“We just needed to stay out of the penalty box,” Lambert said. “It wasn’t like we were doing anything terrible, terrible. We were sitting back maybe a little bit, but we just couldn’t get anything going because we had a steady stream to the penalty box.”
Takeaway 2: They held off the big guns, until…
For the vast majority of the game, every time it looked like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl—who skated together on a line—was about to connect on a pass, a Kraken stick would magically appear in the lane and break it up.
I was prepared to go down to the dressing room after the game and ask about how the Kraken had so successfully held the big guns at bay… until…
Edmonton was pushing late and had extended zone time. Ryan Shea tried to rim the puck deep from the blue line, but it hit McDavid on the shin pad and ricocheted straight to Draisaitl on the doorstep. Although Grubauer got across in time, he wasn’t able to properly square up to Draisaitl, who chipped it over his shoulder and into the far corner.
“In the first two games here, I liked our structure for the most part,” Lambert said. “Really unfortunate the winning goal tonight was the bounce that it was. So we just have to keep building on it, but I liked our structure, and I think our sticks were pretty good.”
McDavid followed that up with an empty-net goal, so after 57 minutes and 33 seconds of holding that duo completely off the scoresheet, Draisaitl ended up with the game-winner, and McDavid got two cheap points.
What can you do?
Takeaway 3: Lots to build on
If the Kraken can bounce back and take care of business against the Flames—who they smoked 6-1 on Thursday—in their home opener Sunday, then this should be viewed as an extremely positive start to the season.
They absolutely could have beaten Edmonton in this game. And considering the Oilers had played two insanely high-scoring games against Vancouver to start their season, holding them to one goal for almost the entire game—while also controlling some stretches—should be viewed as a positive.
There was some bad luck and a couple of absolute robberies by Devon Levi, including a save on Eberle that was so close to going in, the officials actually reviewed the play to see if his glove crossed the line.
[Dr. Evil voice]: "You know, I have one simple request, and that is to have technology that tells us when a fricken puck crosses the line."
“It’s hard after a loss. Losing is not fun,” Lambert said. “But I think if you look at the [first two] games as a whole, we did a lot of good things. We had a lot of commitment, and I thought everybody played an important role. Everybody matters on our hockey team.”
The early returns are encouraging. What say you?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Hello from Edmonton, where the Seattle Kraken are set to take on the fast-and-loose Edmonton Oilers Saturday at Rogers Place. Head coach Lane Lambert confirmed that forward Mackie Samoskevich will make his debut after sitting out the first game in Calgary with an upper-body injury sustained in Training Camp.
“Obviously, it’s not fun watching, but it was fun to watch,” Samoskevich said of the team’s first outing, a 6-1 drubbing of the Flames at the Scotiabank Saddledome. “They came out hot right away and ready to go, and with a short camp and all that, that’s good to see. I think the coaching staff did a good job of getting us ready.”
Samoskevich, known for his speed, should bring another element of skill to the lineup for Seattle in a matchup against an Edmonton team that has scored 14 goals but given up 13 through its first two games, both against the Vancouver Canucks.
“We all know it, speed is a big part of [The Oilers],” Samoskevich said. “It’s a big part of our team too, so it’ll be a fun game. We’ve just got to be smart, manage the puck really well, stay above their speed and help each other out out there.”
Jacob Melanson on injured reserve
We all wondered who would be put on waivers when Samoskevich became available, since the Kraken are at their 23-man roster limit. That question can be put off for at least a week, though, because Jacob Melanson is now out and on injured reserve with an upper-body injury.
We didn’t see anything specific happen in the Calgary game, but Melanson did not practice Friday in Edmonton, and Lambert said at the time that he was “banged up” and “being evaluated.”
On Saturday, the coach shared that he doesn’t “expect him to be able to play in the next three games, but we’ll see.”
Lineup plans remain fuzzy
Seattle did not hold a morning skate Saturday, and based on how practice went Friday—when I genuinely do not think Lambert knew for sure if Samoskevich would be ready Saturday—there seemed to be a plan to ease the winger into the lineup. During line rushes, Samoskevich rotated in on the fourth line, with the top three lines from the Calgary game all remaining intact.
Lambert was unsurprisingly cagey Saturday, though, about where he would slot Samoskevich against Edmonton. Would he dare break up The Kids line of Berkly Catton, Shane Wright, and Ryan Winterton after they drove the bus en route to a dominant win last game?
“Well, we’ll see how we progress and see what our lines are tonight,” Lambert said with a smirk.
On the Catton/Wright/Winterton trio, Lambert said: “I like Ryan Winterton’s speed with them… It’s a long season, but certainly, I like the speed of Shane and ‘Cats.’ I think Shane’s got a pretty good mentality now, playing on the wing of using his shot, and we need him to use his shot.
“But they were quick, and they were hounding pucks, and I think Winterton has done a pretty good job with them. Not only does he complement their speed, but you could argue he’s faster too, so it makes for a dangerous trio.”
If Lambert wants to get Samoskevich into a top-six role, the most obvious solution to the puzzle would be to put everybody back where they were in Training Camp, with Samoskevich on the top line with Matty Beniers and Jared McCann, and Kaapo Kakko sliding back down to play with Catton and Wright.
But that would mean booting Winterton down to the fourth line, and after Game 1—and considering Lambert’s comments above—how does he do that?
We shall see…
Heck, I’m not even 100 percent sure who the goalie will be for this game. My gut says Joey Daccord, but Daccord was often tabbed for the second of back-to-backs last season.
In any case, here’s my best guess at the lineup:
Jared McCann / Matty Beniers / Kaapo Kakko Bobby McMann / Chandler Stephenson / Jordan Eberle Shane Wright / Berkly Catton / Ryan Winterton Ben Meyers / Freddy Gaudreau / Mackie Samoskevich
Vince Dunn / Adam Larsson Ryker Evans / Brandon Montour Ryan Lindgren / Josh Mahura
Joey Daccord Philipp Grubauer
If I’m right, the extras would be Curtis Douglas, Ville Ottavainen, and Cale Fleury.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
It’s 9:12 pm Pacific on April 30, 2023. Yanni Gourde hunches over the right face-off circle near Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer. Mikko Rantanen leans in. 44 seconds remain in Game 7 of this first-round series between the Seattle Kraken and Colorado Avalanche. Seattle holds a 2-1 advantage on the scoreboard. Six Colorado skaters loom with the Avalanche net empty.
The puck drops. Rantanen touches his stick to the ice and wins the puck back to a diving Nathan MacKinnon, who directs the puck to Cale Makar lurking on the blue line. Colorado’s three biggest stars have touched the puck in a flash. Every single Colorado goal in the series had been either scored or assisted by MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, or fellow Avalanche standout Devon Toews. Makar moves the puck to Evan Rodrigues, who quickly throws it on net into a mass of netfront players.
The puck deflects and rims around the boards back to MacKinnon on the right, who attempts to cycle it back below the net. Adam Larsson attacks the puck, and with support from Gourde, stymies the play momentarily in the corner. 32 seconds. 27 seconds. Everyone is counting.
With increasing desperation, Colorado wins the puck to the blue line again, where Makar keeps it in the zone. Makar passes the puck high-low to MacKinnon, but again Seattle pressures the Avs superstar in the right corner. Gourde’s pressure deflects an attempted return pass to Makar and sends the puck toward linemate Oliver Bjorkstrand. Scoreless in the first six games, Bjorkstrand had scored both of Seattle’s goals in this one and threatened for more. He catches the puck with his stick and turns up ice, breaking out of the zone. 17 seconds.
Near the end of a marathon shift, Bjorkstrand is tracked down by Rodrigues, who tips the puck over to Makar. The young defenseman pivots back toward Grubauer and quickly re-enters the zone. Eight seconds. Artturi Lehkonen takes Makar’s pass but is pressured and sends the puck down the boards and behind the net. Five seconds.
The Avalanche attempt to recover, but there again is Gourde with a hard body check on the boards to shake the puck loose. He has played more than 20 minutes per game in the series (142:34 overall TOI), the most ice time of any Kraken forward, and spent about half of that time (68:39 overall TOI) with one of the hardest assignments in the sport: checking Nathan MacKinnon.
MacKinnon corrals the loose puck in the right corner. Two seconds. He attempts to center it, but the puck deflects away again with Gourde and Larsson reaching in.
It’s 9:13 pm Pacific now. The horn sounds. The usually stoic Grubauer leaps into the air and is quickly embraced in joy by the equally unflappable Kraken blueliner Jamie Oleksiak. Players pour off the bench. Kraken fans in Denver and across the Pacific Northwest raise their arms and cry out in jubilation. It’s the first ever playoff series win for the second-year franchise, against the defending Stanley Cup champions, as the largest underdogs anywhere in the postseason. Your author, staring at his phone in a silent, darkened driveway in Central Oregon, shouts into the black, open sky.
Exaltation for the Kraken organization and its fans.
9:16 pm. An email from NHL Public Relations hits the inbox of media members. The first game of the second playoff round, matching the Seattle Kraken and Dallas Stars, will begin in less than 46 hours. Puck drop in Dallas is Tuesday, May 2, at 6:30 pm Pacific.
Congratulations on winning a roller coaster series, Seattle hockey fans. Your reward? Let’s buckle you right back in. Welcome to playoff hockey.
Catching up with the Dallas Stars
Seattle and Dallas played three times in a two-week span in mid-March, with Seattle dropping the two games (one in overtime) in Seattle, and prevailing on a memorable Adam Larsson breakaway in Dallas in the teams’ most recent clash on March 21. After that overtime loss, Dallas closed out its season very well, posting a 9-2-0 record down the stretch.
The Stars defense shined during this run. Setting aside two empty-netters, the team allowed just 17 goals in those 11 games with a smothering 1.55 goals against average. That was a product of suffocating defensive play (Dallas skaters suppressed five-on-five shot quality against far better than they had over the first 70 games) and Dallas goaltenders, most notably Jake Oettinger, allowed 40 percent fewer goals than expected even in those rare circumstances where Dallas defenders conceded a shot at all.
Visualization by HockeyViz
This strong play carried over to Dallas’s first-round series against the Minnesota Wild. Aside from one empty-netter, Dallas allowed just 13 goals in six games and suppressed shot quality against at a rate 21 percent better than league average. Dallas was particularly staunch in the high-danger scoring areas between the face-off circles and at the front of the goal. For his part, Oettinger started all six games, tallied a .929 save percentage, and saved 4.72 goals more than expected, per Evolving Hockey. Dallas paired this sound defensive play with just enough offense to dispatch the Wild, 4-to-2, with the final win coming on Friday, April 28.
Visualization by HockeyViz
Snapshot: Kraken vs. Stars
Compared with the Colorado Avalanche, the Dallas Stars have a deeper roster of top-scoring talent, with six forwards notching more than twenty goals: Jason Robertson (46), Roope Hintz (37), Jamie Benn (33), Joe Pavelski (28), Wyatt Johnston (24), and Tyler Seguin (21). This gives the Stars the ability to deploy at least two threatening offensive lines, whereas it often seemed that Colorado only had one. Add in superstar two-way defenseman Miro Heiskanen and the Dallas Stars have a lineup with the ability to score their way out of problems.
Moving to the bottom half of the roster, however, Seattle again possesses the offensive advantage. This almost balances the overall 5-on-5 offensive profile of the teams, which stood just four goals apart in overall “expected” goal production across 82 games. The Kraken separated from Dallas in the regular season by converting their scoring chances into goals at a far higher rate at five-on-five. But with high-end scorers Jared McCann and Andre Burakovsky both out with injuries at the moment, it is unlikely that the Kraken will be able to rely on “finishing” their chances at an above-expected rate moving forward. (Regarding McCann: He is not currently on the trip with the Kraken, which suggests that the best-case scenario is likely a return for Game 3 or 4 in Seattle. But that is just speculation at this juncture.)
In terms of five-on-five shot quality against, the two teams are both very good and comparable. Per Evolving Hockey data, the Kraken allowed shots expected to create approximately 161 goals at five-on-five across 82 games (fifth best in the league), whereas Dallas allowed shots expected to create 162 goals (sixth best). That said, over the course of the regular season, Dallas actually allowed fifteen fewer goals than Seattle at five-on-five, in large part due to the sterling play of Oettinger.
Take the number: Stars players to watch
Young star forward Jason Robertson (No. 21) belongs in the discussion of the very upper echelon of players in the league. I would likely put him in the top 10, perhaps even top five, but he is rarely discussed that way. With 46 goals and 109 points, he also delivers strong, responsible defensive play. He’ll give the Kraken everything they can handle in this series.
But for Robertson, Roope Hintz (No. 24) would likely get more national attention too. Hintz is an elite goal scorer with very strong impacts driving offense at even strength and on the power play, as well as elite scoring touch finishing his own chances.
On the blue line Miro Heiskanen (No. 4) is about as skilled as they come in setting up scoring chances for his teammates with his passing. His 62 assists rank second on the team only behind Robertson. Heiskanen is also talented breaking out of his own zone and in transition, and he brings strong value on both special teams.
Beyond that trio of young “stars,” Dallas also has a stable of strong veteran players, led by forwards Jamie Benn (No. 14) and Joe Pavelski (No. 16). Pavelski appears to have recovered from a heavy hit sustained during the first round and will likely make his return to the ice in Game 1 of the series against the Kraken.
Finally, when all else fails, Dallas can rely on its goalie Jake Oettinger (No. 29). Over the course of the regular season, he ranked seventh in the league in goals saved above expected, and he has continued (or elevated) that play in the postseason.
Keys to the series: Stay Disciplined, Solve Oettinger
Dallas is a good team at even strength, but the Stars take their game to the next level on special teams. The team ranks in the top five in power-play conversion percentage (25 percent) and in penalty kill rate (83.5 percent).
Visualization by HockeyViz
Seattle, in contrast, was in the middle of the pack in both categories during the regular season. The Kraken actually outscored Colorado on special teams during their first-round series (4-3), but that was more due to the standout play of Philipp Grubauer in those situations than anything. Colorado generated good looks on the power play, but the German netminder usually had the answers.
Against an even more dangerous unit in Dallas, Seattle will need to stay disciplined and avoid manpower disadvantages.This is particularly true in the absence of McCann, who is almost as important as a defender and counter-strike threat on the penalty kill as he is on the power play. The Kraken have a much better chance to outscore the Stars at even strength than on special teams.
That said, Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger makes scoring difficult in any context. The data suggests that Oettinger may be a bit weaker on shots from his right, and is just average at stopping slap shots, which are often preceded by cross-ice passes. This suggests that the Kraken may find more success the more they can get Oettinger to move across his crease, particularly left-to-right. It also suggests there may be a role for wing scorers like Daniel Sprong, Oliver Bjorkstrand, or Eeli Tolvanen to make some noise in this series.
Visualization by HockeyViz
Prediction time
Once again, the common wisdom among public analysts seems to be that the Kraken face the slimmest odds of any of the eight teams remaining to advance to the next round.
What do you think is the key to the series? What’s your prediction? Are you fired up for round two? Do you need a nap? Let us know in the comments below or on Twitter at @sound_hockey or @DeepSeaHockey.
As we in the Seattle hockey community continue to think of Andy Eide, we also eagerly anticipate the first appearance in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the NHL’s 32nd franchise. During the inaugural Kraken season, Andy often wrote pre-game “Enemy Reports” for Sound Of Hockey, so we thought it was a good time for a reboot of that series.
More than just another organization “first,” this trip to the playoffs feels similar to the inaugural Kraken home game–a culmination of tireless efforts and the realization of countless dreams. We wish Andy were here to tell us all about it, but there’s no better way to dive into the playoffs than with a concept he came up with in the first place.
Just after 7:00 pm Pacific, the Kraken will find themselves staring down the defending champion Colorado Avalanche across the face-off circle. The last player to touch his stick to the ice before the puck drops will almost certainly be Avs superstar Nathan MacKinnon. His presence looms large in this series, and his ability to produce could very well dictate how it plays out.
Snapshot: Kraken vs. Avalanche
Superficially, the Kraken and Avalanche can look similar on paper. Colorado ended with 109 standings points and Seattle took 100. Per Evolving Hockey statistics, the Kraken are 18th in expected goals for at five-on-five and the Avalanche at 19th. The Kraken are eighth in five-on-five expected goals against and the Avalanche are sixth. Neither fares well on the face-off dot. Both do well controlling transition play. Both are middling on the penalty kill. The Avalanche have the more efficient power play, ranking sixth in conversion rate, whereas the Kraken rank tied for 19th. But the Kraken have fared better in five-on-five scoring, ranking first compared with the Avs, who are tied for 15th. It looks close.
Yet, when we dig a little deeper, we find two teams that stand in stark contrast, both in terms of how they are built and how they navigated the regular season.
The Avalanche ended the season in familiar rarefied air: first in the Central Division and tied for second in the Western Conference. But it did not start that way. The Avalanche began slowly by their standards, hampered by injuries.
On March 5, 2023, the Avalanche lost to the Seattle Kraken 3-2 in overtime when a Yanni Gourde snap shot became a memorable game winner. At that time, the Avs stood at just 34-21-6.
Since then Colorado has been a runaway boulder down hill–an Avalanche, if you will. The Avs went 17-3-1 to finish the season, taking full advantage of a weak stretch of opponents and holding their own against playoff teams, going 4-2-1 against postseason qualifiers. The Avs are third in goals for percentage (GF%) and fifth in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) since March 5, and no team has scored more goals on the power play during that stretch than the Avs (20).
During the same timeframe, Seattle’s pace plateaued. The Kraken tallied a record of 10-7-2 and accumulated most of their points against weaker competition. Seattle went just 1-6-1 against playoff teams, with the one win being Larsson’s overtime golden goal in Dallas. Under the hood, the shot metrics continue to be solid enough; Seattle is ninth in GF% and seventh in xGF%. But it is hard to ignore that Seattle has not beaten a 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoff team in regulation since Jan. 12. In these tougher matchups, where one goal can make all the difference, Seattle has struggled in Andre Burakovsky’s absence.
Take the number: Avalanche players to watch
As I’ll breakdown further below, the Colorado Avalanche will go as far as superstar forward Nathan MacKinnon (No. 29) can take them. MacKinnon had 42 goals and 69 assists in just 71 games this season, surpassing the 100-point threshold for the first time as a 27-year-old. And he has typically elevated his production in the postseason. Since making his debut in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2014, he has played in 70 playoff contests, tallying 41 goals and 52 assists. With 93 playoff points, he leads all Colorado skaters and ranks fifth in the NHL during that span.
Mikko Rantanen (No. 96) somewhat quietly scored 55 goals for Colorado on MacKinnon’s wing this season. Adding in fifty assists, he too topped 100 points for the first time in his career at 26 years old. He and MacKinnon give Colorado two of only 11 players in the NHL to top 100 points this season and a potent one-two punch at the top of the lineup. Rantanen piled up 20 assists and five goals during Colorado’s Stanley Cup-winning run last season.
Remarkably, the most talented player on the Avalanche might not be MacKinnon or Rantanen but Cale Makar (No. 8). The 24-year-old blueliner piled up 66 points in 60 games this season. Makar can skate, creatively make offense, and finish as well as a top-tier forward while also keeping his defense above par. He led the reigning champion Avalanche with 29 points in 20 games in the playoffs last year. The only question on Makar coming into this series was health, but it sounds like he should be ready to go in the first round against Seattle.
Visualization by HockeyViz
Valeri Nichuskin (No. 13) is 6-foot-4 power forward who bulldozed his way through competition in the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs en route to 15 playoff points, fifth on the team. Artturi Lehkonen (No. 62) is a strong defensive player who also scored 21 goals this season. Devon Toews (No. 7) scored 50 points from the blue line and would qualify as a bona fide No. 1 defenseman on most teams lacking Makar.
Missing from the lineup, though, is Gabriel Landeskog (No. 92), a top-line player and Colorado’s captain. He was fourth on the team in playoff scoring last season, tallying 11 goals and 11 assists across 20 contests. Landeskog is not expected back this postseason.
Finally, in net for Colorado will be Alexandar Georgiev (No. 40). A smaller stature goaltender like Philipp Grubauer, Georgiev has had a productive season, posting above-average numbers against all varieties of shots–close and from distance, slap shots, wrist shots, and deflections. His 19 goals saved above expected put him just outside the top 10 goalies in the league, per Evolving Hockey.
Key to the series: matching Nathan MacKinnon’s line
The Colorado Avalanche are a different team when MacKinnon’s line is on the ice. In particular, MacKinnon’s ability to drive play into the offensive zone, create scoring chance volume, and improve the probability that his teammates finish scoring chances by delivering pin point, high-danger passes put him in the small handful of superstar players in this league.
With elite scorer Rantanen attached to MacKinnon on his right wing, Colorado generated 81 goals in 1191 minutes of five-on-five time with MacKinnon on the ice (4.08 goals per 60 minutes). During that time, Colorado generated 26 percent above-average shot quality.
Visualization by HocekyViz
What happens to Colorado’s offense when MacKinnon (and usually Rantanen) are off the ice? Half of its offensive potency simply vanishes. The team struggles to generate scoring chances five-on-five, registering shot quality 7 percent worse than league average. And even more troubling than that, Colorado’s remaining lines have lacked the finishing skill and creativity to turn the chances they do get into goals. In 2753 minutes without MacKinnon on the ice at five-on-five, Colorado has generated just 93 goals (2.02 goals per sixty minutes).
Visualization by HocekyViz
This lack of depth scoring is in contrast with the 2021-22 Stanley Cup winning Avalanche team. Last season, Colorado was similarly productive with MacKinnon on the ice, scoring 3.96 goals per sixty minutes at five-on-five. But the team’s middle-six scorers were able to keep the boulder moving when MacKinnon was on the bench. The 2021-22 Avalanche scored 130 five-on-five goals over 2862 minutes without MacKinnon on the ice (2.73 goals per sixty minutes).
Injuries (Gabriel Landeskog) and free-agent departures (Nazem Kadri, Burakovsky) have shortened the offensive lineup this year. All of this leaves Colorado much more reliant on MacKinnon, both at even strength and on the power play, where his isolated impacts improve Colorado’s scoring chances by 8 percent according to HockeyViz.
Colorado recognizes its scoring limitations with MacKinnon off the ice and compensates by playing more conservatively to avoid scoring chances against. The Avalanche tighten up the defensive structure, and look to slow down opposing rush chances, particularly through the neutral zone and at the blue line. When MacKinnon is on the ice, Colorado is willing to live with the risk that its aggressive rush offense and forecheck will yield some counter-strike offense. The team concedes shot quality 2 percent worse than average with MacKinnon on the ice, shots worth 2.63 xG per sixty minutes at five-on-five.
Visualization by HocekyViz
With MacKinnon off the ice, Colorado suppresses opponent shot quality 12 percent better than average and yields just 2.27 xG per sixty minutes. For reference, this is similar to the defensive work done by the Kraken at five-on-five overall.
Visualization by HocekyViz
For these reasons, how the Kraken matchup against MacKinnon’s line is one of the key strategic questions I have going into this particular matchup. While in Colorado, the Kraken will not have the benefit of the “last change,” of course. But “last change” often receives undo emphasis given that the majority of line matchups come during the run of play anyway, rather than after stoppages. Coaches can push play toward specific matchups regardless of the arena.
If I were in Kraken coach Dave Hakstol’s shoes, I’d be looking to get a lineup on the ice that is strong defensively, but also capable of counterpunching with transition offense after successfully disrupting the MacKinnon line into a turnover. That potential for offensive production is important because Colorado tends to make itself most vulnerable and cheats in favor of offense when MacKinnon is circling the offensive zone.
Alex Wennberg’s line has taken the toughest matchups for much of the season. But I do not believe the current version of the Wennberg line is a good candidate to match MacKinnon’s group because it lacks the offensive firepower to make Colorado pay for its overcommitment to offense. Burakovsky’s absence hurts there.
Instead, to the extent it can be managed, I would put out Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, and Jordan Eberle as the forward grouping to combat MacKinnon during “on the fly” changes, along with the Vince Dunn and Adam Larsson defensive pair. The forward group is sound defensively. And then McCann and Beniers, in particular, can produce with speed on the counterattack, particularly when supported by Dunn. Then, if there is a critical defensive-zone draw, I would lean toward the Eeli Tolvanen-Yanni Gourde-Oliver Bjorkstrand line matching MacKinnon, given Gourde’s superior production obtaining possession off the draw and that group’s strong defensive play.
These groupings are unlikely to outproduce MacKinnon’s line, but if they could limit the goal deficit, it would give Seattle’s depth scoring a chance to turn the tide. It could be the key to the series.
Prediction time
“This is it, the most lopsided series of the opening round.” – The Athletic
Here we go, folks! Game 1 of the first playoff appearance in the history of the Seattle Kraken has arrived. The boys in deep-sea blue are in Denver to take on the defending Stanley Cup champs, and nobody is giving them a chance. There are certainly reasons to fear this Colorado team, but we’ve liked this potential Avalanche matchup for the Kraken for some time.
Still, for the Kraken to get through this opening round, it will take a close-to-perfect performance for four out of seven games. The Kraken will need to limit the damage done by Avalanche superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen, and they will need to have their balanced scoring show up, as it has for most (but not all) of the season.
Let’s dig into the storylines surrounding Game 1 of this intriguing series and consider what Seattle is facing.
Storylines
Daniel Sprong injury woes
It’s no secret Seattle’s depth is its biggest strength. Sure, there is a 40-goal scorer on the top line in Jared McCann, but realistically, the Kraken have two second lines and two third lines (or three second lines and a third line, depending on how you want to slice it). The Kraken do not beat teams by having their top trio take over games. Instead, they win by attacking in waves with all four lines, and when the right matchup presents itself, any of the four can break through on a given night.
A huge piece of that depth scoring this season has been Daniel Sprong, who racked up 21 goals and 25 assists while playing exclusively in a fourth-line role and mixing in as a power-play specialist.
He missed practice both Saturday and Sunday, and coach Dave Hakstol called him day to day. The team listed Sprong in their injury report Monday and called up Tye Kartye from the Coachella Valley Firebirds for the first time in his pro career.
We are hopeful Kartye’s recall is just insurance in case Sprong can’t go, but if Sprong is out, that would hurt Seattle’s chances in Game 1 and perhaps Game 2. Aside from adding to the team’s five-on-five offensive prowess, Sprong has been one of the main reasons for Seattle’s recent power play improvement. Playing on the left half wall, Sprong has brought a mix of creativity and a wicked shot to the second unit.
At Sunday’s practice, the second unit had been shuffled around a bit, with Yanni Gourde serving in the middle “bumper” role, with Oliver Bjorkstrand moving from the bumper spot to Sprong’s usual spot on the left wall.
Tye Kartye up with the big club
If Sprong can’t go, we’re curious to see if Kartye will make his NHL debut in Seattle’s first ever playoff game or if Hakstol will go with the more known quantity in Jesper Froden. Froden has played 14 games with the Kraken this season, and although he hasn’t been a liability for Seattle, he also hasn’t produced much offensively. The 28-year-old winger has four assists and zero goals at the NHL level after notching 25 goals and 22 assists in 44 games in the AHL.
Kartye, meanwhile, is an interesting story. After going undrafted, Seattle signed him as a free agent from the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds. Kartye was invited to Kraken training camp in 2021 and made a good impression, then went back to Sault Ste. Marie for his 20-year-old season and amassed 45 goals and 34 assists in 63 games. That landed him a three-year entry-level deal.
In his first pro season with Coachella Valley, Kartye has caught fire in the second half and blossomed into one of the Firebirds’ best players. He was named the AHL’s rookie of the month for March with 11 goals and six assists in 15 games. With 57 points on the season, Kartye is also strong candidate for rookie of the year in the AHL.
It would be a big ask to thrust a 21-year-old rookie into the Stanley Cup Playoffs without any NHL experience or practice with the Kraken. But if Sprong can’t play, and Hakstol is hoping to keep an offensive punch from his fourth line, Kartye may be seen as a better fit for the role than Froden.
UPDATE: Sprong did skate at morning skate today, according to our good friend, Piper Shaw.
A month ago, we loved the idea of Seattle playing Colorado in the first round, largely because the Kraken had matched up well with the Avalanche during the season. Seattle went 2-0-1 in its three games against the Avs, and Philipp Grubauer showed good confidence in all three of his outings against his former club.
The most recent win came on March 5, a memorable overtime victory that culminated in a Yanni Gourde breakaway, after Vince Dunn hit him with an exquisite stretch pass.
Things have changed in the last month, though. Seattle got it done against bad teams in the home stretch, but since losing Andre Burakovsky just after the All-Star break, the Kraken have not beaten any playoff teams in regulation.
The Avs, meanwhile, have found their championship mojo that seemed to be missing in the earlier stages of the season. They had a near-perfect 6-0-1 month of April to quickly climb into the top spot in the Central Division, and in their last 10 games, they are 8-1-1. That success came mostly without reigning Norris Trophy winner, Cale Makar, who got injured on April 1. Makar is reportedly ready to go for the playoffs, but it remains to be seen if he will be playing at 100 percent. Meanwhile, Gabriel Landeskog has missed the entire season and has been ruled out for the playoffs.
Still, even with Makar potentially playing through injury and Landeskog out, the Avalanche have elite skill and one of the best players in the world in MacKinnon.
Their top players will get their chances against Seattle. The key for the Kraken will be limiting how dangerous and how plentiful those chances are capitalizing on their own opportunities.
It was far from a masterpiece, but the Seattle Kraken managed two huge standings points Thursday by coming from behind to get an overtime win. A goal from Vince Dunn with just over three minutes left sealed a crucial 2-1 win against the San Jose Sharks at the SAP Center.
“Just fortunate I think,” Dunn said. “[I was thinking] just get it on net and try not to turn it over. If you miss that shot wide it can turn the other way and it’s an odd man rush the opposite way. For me, just give myself a chance. I think it was a fortunate goal for me, kind of caught them on the change.”
Dunn was the offensive hero, but this game was won on the back of goalie Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer was a rock and ended the night by kicking away 31 shots and was only scored on via a penalty shot by San Jose rookie William Eklund.
“The end result is extremely important, we got the two points,” Kraken coach Dave Hakstol said. “I really liked our first two periods… I said it before the game, this is going to be a tight, hard-fought game. They skate, they check, and I don’t know if anyone noticed the skill that they have. We knew it was going to be that kind of game that we have to push it through 60 minutes.”
Seattle has been stymied by Sharks goalie James Reimer, who had shut out the Kraken for over 149 minutes before Oliver Bjorkstrand tied the game in the third period with his 15th of the season.
Bjorkstrand added an assist to his goal, and Yanni Gourde, Jared McCann, and Adam Larsson each had assists as well for the Kraken (38-23-7), who snapped a three-game slide and avoided a fourth loss in a row, something they have done all year.
“I think they’re a really fast team even though they aren’t playing for anything right now,” Grubauer said. “Especially in the first period, I think they had some really good chances there. Tight game, they didn’t give us too much, we needed everybody on board tonight.”
Eklund scored for the Sharks (19-36-14), who earned an overtime point in the second straight game.
The game started as a classic goalie duel as both Reimer and Grubauer were looking unbeatable. It wouldn’t be until the third period that either guy flinched.
At 1:18 Eklund got behind the Seattle defense and was in alone. He was hooked as he took the shot and was awarded a penalty shot, the first of his career. He glided in and took a quick shot that beat Grubauer to give San Jose a 1-0 lead.
The goal gave the game an uneasy feeling and even though the Kraken were outshooting the Sharks at the time, it felt like they weren’t going to score.
“I wasn’t really worried about it,” Grubauer said. “It was just a matter of time before we would find the back of the net.”
They would.
At 7:03 Yanni Gourde sent a seeing-eye lead pass over 100 feet to a streaking Bjorkstrand. He took the pass clean and was behind everybody, and a quick shot tied the game at 1-1 and changed the feeling of the game.
Overtime started with some trepidation as Alex Wennberg broke his stick on the opening face-off, and Seattle had to deal with a shift where they were essentially down a player. The Kraken got through it.
Then at 1:58, it would be Bjorkstrand whose stretch pass found Dunn. The defenseman fired a wrist shot after a few strides that beat Reimer through the five hole and gave the win to Seattle.
“There was a will to [Dunn] tonight that you could see,” Hakstol said. “His confidence, offensively with the puck he was, I thought, in control of some of the play, and it’s maybe fitting that he was the guy who made the play on the winning goal.”
Huge points
The Kraken are in the space where every point matters. The night would have been positive just getting into overtime, but the extra point earned with the win was meaningful.
“Points are very important right now,” Dunn said. “They don’t always have to be pretty but we just have to find a way to get two. Every point really matters right now.”
Seattle kept pace and stayed one point behind the Edmonton Oilers for third place in the Pacific Division. More importantly, with Nashville losing, the Kraken are eight points ahead of the Predators and seven ahead of the Calgary Flames, who are the ninth-place team in the West.
Tentacle Tales
Dunn extended his point streak to a career-best 11 games.
Dunn leads all NHL defensemen in scoring since Jan. 1.
He became the third Kraken defenseman to score an overtime winner in franchise history, joining Justin Schultz and Adam Larsson.
Eklund is the youngest player in Sharks history to score on a penalty shot.
