The on-ice portion of the Seattle Kraken’s Development Camp kicks off Tuesday as drafted, signed, or undrafted invitees take the ice at the Kraken Community Iceplex. Many of these players are unlikely to ever play for the Seattle Kraken, and those who do could be years away from making their debuts. However, it is always enjoyable to get these early in-person viewings of these players. For the newbies, it is an opportunity to get a baseline view of their skills, and for the players we have seen over the years, it is a chance to observe their progression.
Here are four players I am particularly excited to watch:
Berkly Catton
The obvious prospect to check out is the Kraken’s latest first-round selection, Berkly Catton. Many Pacific Northwest WHL fans in the area will have seen Catton play before, being that he plays for the Spokane Chiefs. Catton had 54 goals and 62 assists over 68 games for the Chiefs in the 2023-24 season. He is fast, creative, and has great hands to become a high-level NHLer. There should be plenty of space out there during camp to really showcase his skills.
Tyson Jugnauth
We have discussed Tyson Jugnauth’s interesting developmental journey in several forums. The defenseman, taken by the Kraken in the fourth round of the 2022 NHL Draft, started the 2023-24 season at Wisconsin. However, halfway through the college season, he left NCAA hockey to play with the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. This change enabled Jugnauth to offensively shine. In his 13 games with Wisconsin, Jugnauth averaged 0.15 points per game, compared to being a full point-per-game player during the regular season with the Winterhawks. He is a dynamic offensive defenseman and helped create a lot of offense playing in the WHL.
Jugnauth remains unsigned by the Seattle Kraken and would be eligible to play for the Coachella Valley Firebirds should the Kraken sign him. This will be his third Development Camp with the Kraken, and it will be interesting to see how he currently stacks up against other prospects.
Carson Rehkopf
We have been enthusiastic about Carson Rehkopf ever since his first Development Camp, which happened last summer. He was one of the Kraken’s second-round selections from the 2023 NHL Draft and had a monster season for the Kitchener Rangers. He was second in the OHL in goals scored with 52, despite missing a good chunk of time when he was away from the team to represent Canada at the IIHF World Junior Championship. Rehkopf is known for his shot and can score from anywhere on the ice. There is an outside chance that Rehkopf will stick with the Kraken when the regular season starts in the fall.
Lleyton Roed
The Kraken signed undrafted free agent Lleyton Roed in March after an impressive college season with Bemidji State, where he led the Beavers with 30 points in 38 games. He ended up playing five regular-season games and five postseason games with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. In those brief viewings, he looked very comfortable and noticeably quick for playing his first professional hockey games. Roed might be a few seasons away from contending for a Kraken roster spot, but we like what we see so far.
Camp details
Development Camp is not the most intense hockey you will see, but it is an excellent opportunity to observe the skill of these prospects and can give you an idea of who projects to play in the NHL one day. Camp will go from Tuesday through Friday, with an off day for the Fourth of July.
Tuesday, July 2: Doors open at 9:30 a.m.; group training sessions start at approximately 9:45 a.m.
Wednesday, July 3: Private viewing for Season Ticket Members only (advanced registration/ticketing required).
Friday, July 5: Doors open at 9:30 a.m. with scrimmages starting at approximately 10:00 a.m., followed by a hosted barbecue at 12:15 p.m. for the first 400 fans.
Here is the complete roster of who will be attending development camp:
If you are lucky enough to attend, let us know who catches your eye or your favorite moment.
Sound Of Hockey Prospect Week continues with today’s venture, a 2023-24 update on our truly reckless project from last offseason, ranking every NHL-affiliated skater prospect (both drafted and signed players) that meet two criteria entering the 2023-24 season. These players must (1) be younger than 25 years old, and (2) have played fewer than 50 NHL games. In addition, we’ll layer in some organization-level comparisons to investigate how the 32 NHL teams stack up.
As described yesterday when we looked at Seattle’s prospects through a similar lens, our “data-only” ranking is built on Thibaud Chatel’s NHL equivalency research and uses only quantifiable measures: prospect points per game and strength of the player’s current league, with adjustments made by me for prospect age and positional value. If you want more detail on methods, we went into it here, and feel free to drop questions in the comments below or on X (formerly known as Twitter).
For current purposes, it is likely sufficient to reiterate that there were no adjustments for subjective preferences or the “eye test” here. In that sense, this exercise is meant to complement traditional scouting assessments, not to be a replacement for that important work.
A data-only prospect ranking
Alright, without further preamble, you can find the full ranking of all 946 NHL-affiliated prospects meeting our criteria, with a lot of additional data on each prospect HERE.
Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.
Here is summary information on the top 50:
How do the organizations stack up against each other? Let’s dig into that now.
Which organizations have the most young scoring talent coming?
The Seattle Kraken have more prospects in the top 50 of the overall (four) than any other NHL team.
In case you’re wondering whether we chose this initial threshold to cast the Kraken’s system in an artificially good light, it’s worth noting that Seattle Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus is prospect No. 51 in the ranking.
Of course, it’s much more valuable to have the No. 1 overall prospect in hockey than the number 50 prospect, so here’s a look at the aggregate 2023-24 season-adjusted NHLe for the same snapshot of prospects, by organization:
Drawing back a bit, here is how the top 100 prospects in this data-only ranking fall by organization. The logos closest to the Y Axis represent the highest-ranked prospects.
And, finally, here is a breakdown of how many top-200 prospects are in each organization:
Seattle’s prospects again measure up favorably, though its group is still not quite as deep as the very best prospect pools in the league, the Montreal Canadiens and the San Jose Sharks.
Finally, here is the aggregate 2023-24 season adjusted NHLe for the top-200 prospects, by organization:
Which organizations have the most young talent overall?
While we have learned a lot about which teams have the most young talent yet to play regularly at the NHL level, this doesn’t quite answer the question of which teams have the most young talent overall. After all, some of the very best young players–Connor Bedard, for example–never spend a moment playing junior or minor-league hockey after they are drafted.
To get an answer to the question of which organizations have the most (or least) young talent for the future, I compiled 2023-24 scoring data for all under-25 players on NHL rosters. Here are the results displayed graphically. The X Axis measures total scoring by the NHL team’s under-25 players. The Y axis measures the total adjusted NHLe by the system’s prospects ranking within the top 100.
Organizations in the top right quadrant have above-average young scoring talent in the NHL and outside it. Conversely, the cupboard is bare for the organizations in the bottom left, as they lack young scorers at any level.
The Kraken land in the top-left quadrant, among teams that don’t have much young talent yet established at the NHL level but have a lot coming. It makes sense that Seattle would be in this spot given that its draft classes are just now starting to mature outside of the very top draft picks that can make the jump to the NHL more quickly.
Elsewhere, the Sharks, Canadiens, Devils, Flyers, and Sabres appear well situated moving forward with young talent already on their NHL rosters and more coming. At the other extreme, the Lightning, Panthers, Oilers, and Islanders can’t bank on a pipeline of young scoring moving forward.
Which organizations are best positioned moving forward?
Of course, winning isn’t just about having young scorers. So, one last thing to look at is which organizations are both winning now and have highly ranked prospects coming. Again, top-right is where you want to be. Bottom-left is less than ideal.
Carolina and Winnipeg appear well situated with prospects coming to sustain their current success into the future. On the other end of the spectrum, even with Connor Bedard on hand, the Blackhawks need to add more talent to the organization. Drafting Ivan Demidov second overall would certainly help.
The Islanders and Oilers better win soon because the cupboard looks pretty bare for the future. On the other hand, the Sharks, Canadiens, and Kraken have reason to think things should improve going forward–though San Jose has a long road ahead to reach a competitive level.
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What stands out to you? Anything else you’d like to know? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter/X at @deepseahockey and @sound_hockey.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
I assure you, there will be extensive analysis of the Seattle Kraken’s performance throughout the 2023-24 season in the coming days, weeks, and months. We’ll delve deeper into what went wrong and speculate on offseason plans starting this week.
My mind is filled with topics to investigate and evaluate. Each investigation takes me down a different rabbit hole, and these don’t always yield findings worth sharing, so it will take me time to get through these. In the meantime, I thought I would wrap up the season with a final ‘Monday Musings.’
Injuries
Injuries were mentioned a couple of times during the season-ending press availabilities, and they truly took a toll on Seattle’s performance throughout the year. While maladies were a constant presence, we may not have fully grasped the extent of the challenge they presented this season for the Kraken.
Injuries are a part of the game, and the team faced a few last season as well. It’s hard to compare how this season’s man-games lost relates with last season or with other teams because of players on LTIR (Chris Driedger was included in Seattle’s man-games lost in 2022-23 but was replaced by Martin Jones).
Regardless, the above chart gives a good feel for just how much hockey was missed by key players. Due to turnover on the goal-scoring fourth line, the margin for error became much narrower this season. So in a season where goal-scoring was a challenge, the extended absences of Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz, and Vince Dunn had a significantly greater impact compared to the 2022-23 season.
Watching the playoffs though a Kraken lens
During Saturday night’s playoff game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins, I sent out a tongue-in-cheek tweet suggesting Mitch Marner could be traded to Seattle. While a Marner trade would be a long shot, these are the types of scenarios that general manager Ron Francis could be considering during the offseason. Players entering the last year of their contract, with several quality years left in their career, may become targets—especially those unlikely to re-sign with their current team or in situations where the current club is seeking change. Marner is just one example of the type of player Francis could be exploring.
As I watch every second of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I also find myself keeping an eye on pending free agents who might fit into the Kraken’s lineup next season. In my opinion, signing the top free agents with lengthy contracts isn’t ideal, as they often don’t age well. Instead, the team needs a reliable goal scorer who can commit to a shorter contract of two or three years while the prospect pool matures. Among the players I’ve observed in the playoffs who fit this criteria are Tyler Toffoli, Anthony Duclair, and Jake DeBrusk. All three of them possess goal-scoring abilities and would be valuable additions to help address the team’s pressing need for scoring.
Thoughts on the new TV deal
The feedback and thoughts about the new Kraken TV partnership with TEGNA (KING 5/KONG) and Amazon Prime Video have been overwhelmingly positive. This partnership will remove significant financial barriers for fans to enjoy Kraken games. I’ve received numerous texts from Kraken fans expressing excitement about finally being able to watch locally broadcasted games.
However, a couple of fans raised legitimate questions. For instance, how will people in Idaho and Montana watch the games? The Kraken’s press release specifically mentioned availability in Washington, Oregon, and Alaska, suggesting that Idaho and Montana may not have local broadcast access via over-the-air or Amazon Prime Video.
We asked about this and were told that viewers in those states can subscribe to ESPN+ to watch games as “out of market” fans.
Another question is whether Amazon Prime Video will offer the capability to start games on a delay. Not everyone can make it home for a 4 pm start for games on the East Coast and might prefer a ‘start from the beginning’ option. While this feature is standard for many streaming services, Amazon’s first-time regional game broadcast could see some evolution in capabilities.
Regarding replays, will they be available on Amazon Prime Video immediately or will fans need to wait 48 hours as with ESPN+? NFL game replays on Prime Video are typically available right away, but it’s uncertain whether the same will apply to these games.
We have also asked about the ‘DVR’ functionality and will pass along what we hear back.
Fans have also asked about pre- and post-game shows. How will these be presented, and will Piper Shaw be joining the team? Imagine a world without #TheExperience!
This transition in distribution is a significant undertaking, and I anticipate there may be some initial challenges. Let’s all practice patience as the Kraken work to develop this new solution.
Other Musings
In case you missed it, the Kraken signed Carson Rehkopf, one of their second-round selections from last year’s draft, after his Kitchener Rangers squad was eliminated from the OHL playoffs. He will be joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds for their playoff run.
With the signing of Rehkopf, Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard remains as the last unsigned second-round pick from last year’s draft. Expect him to join the Denmark national team at the IIHF World Championship in Czechia.
The Kraken will have strong representation at the upcoming World Championship, starting May 10, as announced by Ron Francis in his postseason press availability. Players such as Jared McCann, Brandon Tanev, Jamie Oleksiak, Andre Burakovsky, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Philipp Grubauer, and Tomas Tatar will be playing for their respective countries.
Although it feels like ages ago, I was deeply moved watching the final Arizona Coyotes game at Mullett Arena. When I started NHLtoSeattle some 14 years ago, the possibility of the Coyotes relocating to Seattle was often discussed. I vividly recall texting with the prospective ownership group on the night of the Glendale vote in 2013. It wasn’t something I was rooting for, but I was certainly keeping a close eye on it. There were incredibly dedicated fans there, and I hope the NHL returns to Arizona soon.
The Coyotes have made the playoffs only once since the NHL-owned team reached the Western Conference Final in 2012.
Here’s an interesting tidbit I came across recently: During the 2023-24 season, the Kraken had 15 fighting majors. Interestingly, seven out of the nine teams with fewer fighting majors than the Kraken are currently in the playoffs.
Get Off My Lawn
With the significant news of the Seattle Kraken moving on from ROOT Sports, I began researching streaming options. The top two choices for my needs are YouTube TV and Hulu + Live TV, with Hulu + Live TV being the favorite due to its bundle options with ESPN+. However, a major drawback with either option is the inability to add the NHL Network.
For passionate hockey fans like myself, the NHL Network offers 24/7 hockey content and serves as the home for events like the U18’s, Women’s Worlds, Men’s World Juniors, and Rivalry Series games. The only alternative streaming option would be Sling, but adding the NHL Network requires subscribing to the Orange package (~$40) and then purchasing the ‘Sports Extra’ add-on for an additional $10, totaling an extra $50 per month. That’s a bit steep for just adding the NHL Network, so I’ll pass on that option.
NHL Network distribution options, get off my lawn.
Down on the Farm
The Coachella Valley Firebirds earned a first-round bye in the Calder Cup Playoffs, and their second-round matchup is now set against the Calgary Wranglers. The series will follow a five-game format with the first two games scheduled in Calgary and the next three in Coachella Valley. This two-three format is often used to reduce travel costs when teams are geographically distant. Similarly, Abbotsford and Ontario are adopting a similar format for their series. I don’t love it for the Firebirds’ sake, since it feels like a disadvantage to open the series on the road.
Here is the schedule:
In case you missed it, early last week the Kraken and Firebirds announced that prospects Carson Rehkopf, David Goyette, Caden Price, Kaden Hammell, Andrei Loshko, and Eduard Šalé would be joining the Firebirds. Most of these guys will not get into any playoff games and are just around to absorb the pro atmosphere. But don’t be surprised if a couple of them get into a few games. Last season, Goyette ended up playing seven AHL playoff games after his junior season ended. Jagger Firkus and Jacob Melanson also got into one AHL playoff game each last season.
Speaking of Firkus, he will not be joining the Firebirds, since his Moose Jaw Warriors are still going and are knotted up at one game apiece against the Saskatoon Blades in Round 3 of the WHL Playoffs. On the other side of the WHL playoff bracket, Tyson Jugnauth and the Portland Winterhawks are tied 1-1 in their series with Prince George. Meanwhile, Ty Nelson of the North Bay Battalion is the only Kraken prospect still playing in the OHL playoffs.
You Don’t See That Every Day
This happened a while ago, but any time you see a goalie goal, you share it.
This is just a friendly reminder that the Kraken still have more playoff wins in the last three seasons than Vancouver.
Thank you all for reading and engaging with the Musings this season. It has been a rewarding routine that sparked discussions about the highlights and challenges of the Kraken’s season. Your thoughtful interactions in the comments section have been enriching and sometimes challenging, expanding my perspective and prompting me to reconsider my assumptions. Once again, thank you!
I have a substantial backlog of areas to investigate, but if you have any thoughts or ideas, please share them in the comments section.
Regardless of the playoff picture, I still enjoy watching the Kraken right now, especially when they win. The Kraken completed their California swing with wins against the Sharks and Ducks and a loss to the Kings in between. Sure, the victories were against two of the weaker teams in the league, but wins are wins, and you certainly wouldn’t want to see them lose to those teams, would you?
Shane Wright looks good
In my limited viewing of Coachella Valley Firebirds games and discussions I’ve had with people inside the Kraken, Shane Wright’s development has been very positive this season. The 20-year-old center has looked impressive since being called up on March 31, though I understand it has only been a few games. While I am excited about Shane, I remain cautious with prospects, knowing there’s an inherent bias in valuing something you possess. Nonetheless, we can appreciate what we’ve seen from him so far.
He scored a goal in his first game against the Sharks and added two against the Ducks on Friday night. However, his contributions extend beyond goal scoring. Wright plays sound defense, delivers quick, creative passes, and consistently positions himself well for scoring. He did make a few mistakes in his three games so far, but these should serve as learning opportunities.
When he was called up for three games in November, Wright appeared competent but cautious, often opting for the safe play to avoid errors. Although he wasn’t on a line with Jordan Eberle and Jaden Schwartz that time, which might have altered his current role with the big club, he now exudes more confidence and poses a greater threat on the ice than before.
Tremendous give and go between Wright and Schwartz in the neutral zone and then another that ends in a royal road feed from Eberle to Wright for the goal pic.twitter.com/pn3bs2wj9I
When evaluating Shane Wright’s development, I often compare it to the development path of Quinton Byfield, the Los Angeles Kings’ centerman. Their paths are not identical, but Wright and Byfield share similarities. Byfield, drafted second overall in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, was an OHL player. Due to the pandemic, he was allowed to spend his draft-plus-one season in the AHL and began playing most of his games in the NHL from the 2021-22 season onwards. However, it wasn’t until this season, four years after his draft year, that Byfield began to hit his stride at the top level, just as pundits were speculating that he might be a bust.
Shane is currently in his draft-plus-two season and, by all indications, will become a regular in the NHL next year, his draft-plus-three season. If he follows Byfield’s trajectory, we might not see his full capabilities in the NHL until 2025-26. The broader point is that we still need to be patient. What we should look for is progress in his development, which we have undoubtedly observed since he joined the franchise.
Other Musings
Friday’s win against the Ducks was Seattle’s eighth regular-season win against Anaheim since the inception of the Kraken, the most wins they have posted against any one team. The Kraken have the chance to beat the Sharks for the eighth time on Thursday in Seattle.
Logan Morrison and Ryan Winterton were scratched from games this week, a strategy often deployed when developing players to provide them with a different perspective of the game. This allows them to apply what they have learned from the handful of NHL games they’ve experienced at ice level and observe it from above. We would expect the duo to get another game or two at the NHL level before being sent back to Coachella Valley.
I would not pencil Morrison or Winterton into the lineup next year. Both show promise, but I am not convinced they will be ready to be regular NHLers next season.
Congratulations to Lleyton Roed on scoring his first professional goal on Sunday, just a week after signing his first professional hockey contract.
— x – Coachella Valley Firebirds (@Firebirds) April 8, 2024
After experiencing lots of challenges this season, Matty Beniers has been finding the net more often, with goals in four of his last six games. Below is his 10-game moving average of goals scored per game, which shows his scoring trend over 10 games at a time.
The IIHF Women’s World Championship kicked off last week, and one of the marquee games of the opening round is Canada versus USA at 7 p.m. PT, airing Monday on the NHL Network. Check it out if you are so inclined.
Speaking of international tournaments, it will be interesting to see how many Kraken players will participate in the men’s version of the IIHF World Championships in Czechia, which kick off in May. One player expected to represent Denmark is Kraken prospect Oscar Fisker Mølgaard. I’ve discussed him extensively this year, but this will be an opportunity to see how he fares against a number of NHL players.
The Kansas City Mavericks, the Seattle Kraken’s ECHL affiliate, clinched the Brabham Cup over the weekend, an award given to the top team of the regular season. In full transparency, I had never heard of the Brabham Cup before.
We alluded to it last week, and now it has been confirmed: Jani Nyman is joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds.
The Everett Silvertips closed out their first-round series against the Vancouver Giants on Sunday. They will face the Portland Winterhawks in the second round, which kicks off on Friday in Portland. The Winterhawks won six of the eight regular-season games between the two teams.
Player performances
Niklas Kokko (PEL/SEA) – Since last Monday, the Kraken goalie prospect won a decisive Game 7 in the opening round of the Liiga playoffs and then won the first two games of the semifinal matchup against his former team, Karpat. He has a .925 save percentage in those two games.
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The Kraken’s second-round selection from the 2022 NHL Draft had nine points, including four goals, in the Sudbury Wolves’ first-round series win against the Mississauga Steelheads. The Wolves won the series in five games and will now face Ty Nelson and the North Bay Battalion in Round 2.
Shane Wright (SEA) – We’ve talked about him a lot lately, but he has four points in his three games with the Kraken since he was called up.
Goal of the week
The goal of the week comes from the semifinals of the SHL playoffs, Växjö Lakers vs Rögle BK.
The analytics community has long understood that outhitting an opponent in a hockey game does not necessarily lead to more wins. The overarching idea is that if you’re outhitting an opponent, it likely means you don’t have the puck. Recently, I’ve noticed a broad group of media outlets highlighting hitting as if it were a key component of success on the ice. This has made me somewhat uneasy, so I decided to investigate how well the Kraken perform when outhitting opponents versus being outhit this season.
When the Kraken are “close” with their opponent in terms of the number of hits delivered, or they deliver at least four fewer hits than their opponent, their winning percentage is significantly higher.
The week ahead
The Kraken will play their last two home games this week, taking on the Coyotes on Tuesday and the Sharks on Thursday. Despite the challenges of the past six weeks, I’ll be sad to see the season end. I still love watching the team play, and if it weren’t for the unrealistic expectations created by last year’s team, I would have been content with this season. The Kraken are laying the groundwork to become a perennial playoff contender, rather than a team that gambles too early and risks having to rebuild. In short, while I would have been thrilled to see them in the playoffs, I appreciate the direction they’re heading.
I have a personal backlog of offseason analysis and investigation, but please let me know if there’s anything specific you’d like me to focus on as the season winds down.
It’s been two weeks since the last installment of Monday Musings, and while I won’t delve into the details of each of the seven games that have since passed, it’s safe to say it’s been quite the roller coaster ride. We witnessed some lackluster performances against the Sabres and the Canadiens, hard-fought battles versus the Coyotes and Golden Knights, two victories against the Ducks, and a game where Seattle showed heart but ultimately fell short against the Stars. Emotionally, I’m coping a bit better with the losses now, but there’s no denying the joy that comes with the wins, regardless of their significance in the grand scheme of things.
Player signings and timing
The Seattle Kraken recently inked one of their second-round selections from the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Lukas Dragicevic, following the conclusion of the Tri-City Americans’ season. This aligns with the Kraken’s strategy of signing many of their draft picks a season after their selection. Likewise, we anticipate Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard to follow suit over the next couple of weeks, now that HV71’s season has ended.
HV71 secured its spot in the SHL for next season after a crucial Game 7 victory, sparing themselves relegation against IK Oskarshamn. Mølgaard, another second-round pick from the 2023 draft, showcased his talent with an impressive season in the SHL. While we anticipate Mølgaard’s signing, unlike Dragicevic, we don’t foresee him joining the Coachella Valley squad for the remainder of the season.
European prospects typically make the transition to North America at the end of their respective seasons if the Kraken intend to have them play in North America the following campaign. Our projection suggests Mølgaard will spend another year honing his skills in the SHL before potentially making the move across the Atlantic.
Similarly, Jani Nyman wrapped up his season last week when his team, Ilves, bowed out to KalPa in the Liiga quarterfinals. Nyman showcased his talent throughout the season, tallying an impressive 43 points in 48 games, earning him the under-20 scoring title and the coveted Red Bull helmet. Having signed his standard entry-level contract (ELC) last year as part of the 2022 Kraken draft class, there’s speculation about his future plans. While nothing is certain, there’s a growing anticipation that he may transition to North America for the upcoming season, potentially joining the Coachella Valley Firebirds to finish out the current season.
Here is a look at the status of all the Kraken draft picks by year and round.
In addition to Mølgaard, I would anticipate Carson Rehkopf to sign whenever the Kitchener Rangers season is complete.
Forecasting the draft picks
I recently received a thought-provoking question from a friend: How many players drafted by the Kraken will become regulars on the team in three years? It’s the kind of inquiry that tends to surface when your team finds itself out of playoff contention.
The data reveals an intriguing reality: only 80 percent of first-round draft picks manage to accumulate more than 100 games in the NHL. For second-round picks, that number drops to 50 percent, and it dwindles to less than 20 percent for those selected beyond the third round. Despite our enthusiasm for some of the draft picks, the odds remain steep for most of them to secure substantial NHL playing time. Assessing which players will succeed and stick in the NHL involves applying probabilities to all Kraken prospects. However, this method doesn’t offer a foolproof prediction of when they’ll make their NHL debut, and it’s worth noting that players may also be traded by the Kraken, further complicating matters.
Using a rough estimation based on the player’s draft round and potential, out of the current 28 drafted prospects, we project that approximately 8.2 will accumulate 100 games or more in the NHL. This rough proxy can help gauge the number of Kraken-drafted prospects likely to feature on the team in three years. While it may seem like the Kraken have excelled in drafting compared to other teams, this perception could be influenced by confirmation bias. To make a more definitive statement, we’ll need a few more years of data to validate this notion.
Shane Wright call-up
In case it slipped under your radar, the Kraken made a notable move on Sunday by recalling Shane Wright. This marks Shane’s second call-up to the Kraken this season, with his first stint occurring back in November for three games.
His performance in Coachella Valley this season has been impressive, fueling excitement about his potential at the highest level. From recent observations, particularly in terms of his two-way play, Shane appears to excel, demonstrating deft puck movement and a quick release, whether shooting or passing to teammates.
While I’d love to offer insights into how his skills will translate to the NHL, the reality is that there’s limited exposure to 20-year-old centers playing in the AHL. Nonetheless, my expectation is that he’ll remain with the team for at least five games, affording us the opportunity to witness his talents in action during the last two home games of the season next week.
Other musings
With the departure of Alex Wennberg and the absence of Vince Dunn, the power play has looked very different. There seems to be a greater emphasis on getting the puck down low for either a touch pass to the slot or sliding a pass across the crease. It seems to be working. The Kraken have a 22.2 power-play percentage since March 3. That is slightly better than the 21.2 percent they had prior to Wennberg’s departure.
One of the more noticeable elements of the power play recently is the change of shot location of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jared McCann. They are still getting their shots; they are just getting it from different locations.
The Kraken goaltenders still have the second highest save percentage in the league since Dec. 1.
In case anyone missed it, the Kraken will be the only NHL team in the league without a home win on a Saturday this season, and I have no theories on why.
Goal scoring continues to be a challenge. The Kraken have scored two goals or less in seven out of their last nine games.
Alison Lukan beat me to it by five days, but the 10 power play opportunities against the Anaheim game on Thursday was a franchise record. The previous record was eight against Vancouver in the inaugural season.
The Ducks are far and away the most undisciplined team in the league, while the Kraken are one of the most disciplined.
The Kraken allowed their ninth goal of the season within five seconds of a face-off on Saturday. We commonly refer to these as ‘face-off goals against.’ They are second in the NHL at allowing face-off goals against this season. The second goal Dallas scored was nine seconds after a face-off.
I have watched a lot of Liiga (Finland) and SHL (Sweden) via their streaming platforms. The picture quality is so superior to footage of the AHL and most of the NHL Regional Sport Networks. Why can’t we get this kind of quality for North America? I understand why it might be a challenge for the CHL, but the other leagues have the money and viewers to make their products better.
Speaking of Scandinavian hockey leagues, Kraken goalie prospect Niklas Kokko will be playing an elimination game in the Liiga playoffs when his team, Lahden Pelicans, squares off against HIFK in a Game 7 matchup Tuesday evening in Finland. Kokko has a .935 save percentage and 1.58 goals against average in these playoffs. He just turned 20 years old.
Player performances
David Goyette (SBY/SEA) – The regular-season points leader in the OHL had a Gordie Howe hat trick in the Sudbury Wolves’ second OHL playoff game. The Wolves lead that series 2-0 and are headed to Sudbury for Games 3 and 4.
Joey Daccord (SEA) – posted a .951 save percentage over the last week with a goals against average of 1.01 in that stretch.
Visa Vedenpää (HER/SEA) – The sixth-round goalie selected in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft had a 39-save shutout on March 27 playing for Hermes in the second round of the Mestis league playoffs.
Goal of the week
Shooters shoot. Check out Goyette’s goal from a crazy game against Mississauga on Saturday.
Furthering the discussion about the Kraken draft picks, here is a look at the number of draft picks playing for the teams that drafted them. I leveraged the CapFriendly.com depth charts so there could be players not reflected in the data if they are currently out of the lineup.
What to watch for
Shane Wright. There are not a lot of obvious roster changes next season, but you can probably lock Shane into a spot right now. I don’t think we will be able to extrapolate much from this stint with the Kraken, but my hope is we see the strides he has made by developing in the AHL this season. It would be great to see a goal or two, but I am eager to see how he moves the puck and how he plays defensively. Hopefully, he gets some special teams opportunities.
We are getting close to offseason mode where we will be digging into the draft, prospects, what went wrong, and a host of other content ideas we have brewing. If there are areas you want us to dig into, please let us know.
It is time for another playoff update. With 10 games remaining, the Kraken are not mathematically eliminated just yet, but they’re closing in on that painful milestone. The Kings, Golden Knights, and Predators need to get more than 93 points for the Kraken to be officially out. Currently the Kings are at 87 points, the Golden Knights are at 88 points and the Predators are at 90 points.
What happened this week
Mar. 24 – Demoralizing Kraken loss to Montreal (5-1)
The Seattle Kraken gave up four goals in the first period and just looked flat the entire game. Philipp Grubauer was pulled, but this was definitely a loss by the whole team. Dave Hakstol called out the group after the loss, saying “Every time you put this jersey on, it means a lot, and right now we are not portraying that out on the ice. You play this game with passion, you play it with heart, and you play it for the guy next to you. And we are not doing that right now, and that’s more than disappointing. That’s hard to be part of and something we are going to change.”
"You play this game with passion. You play it with heart. You play it for the guy next to you. We're not doing that right now and that's more than disappointing."
General manager Ron Francis also had a message and delivered it in the form of bringing up some youth from Coachella Valley in 20-year-old Ryan Winterton and 21-year-old Logan Morrison.
Mar. 26 – Kraken shut out the Ducks (4-0)
The streak ended!!! The Kraken were on an eight-game skid, one shy of their longest losing streak ever, which was a nine-game losing streak during the inaugural season. The Kraken finally broke through on the scoresheet, putting up four goals after only averaging 1.38 goals per game in their previous eight contests. Goaltender Joey Daccord and the Kraken as a whole looked solid against a bad team and earned a shutout. The Ducks were limited to just 12 shots.
Morrison, playing in his first NHL game, received the Davy Jones hat from Andre Burakovsky and earned an impressive 14:21 of ice time, including 3:46 of power-play time. While he did not record a point, he had four good shots on net and generated two turnovers. Overall, the fourth line of Tye Kartye, Winterton, and Morrison looked good with a youthful and spirited effort.
Mar. 28 – Round two with Anaheim, Kraken win (4-2)
There was not much going on in the first and second periods, but the Kraken were able to get on the board and hold a 1-0 lead to start the third period. The third was wild, though, featuring five goals (including two short-handed by Anaheim), some fisticuffs, and 28 penalty minutes.
Even though the Kraken gave up two short-handed goals 44 seconds apart, they rallied and scored three straight to recapture the lead and win the game. Morrison had 13:12 of ice time with an incredible 6:30 on the power play. Unfortunately for Morrison, he also had the puck stripped from him, which led to the second short-handed marker by Jakob Silfverberg.
The key here is Hakstol is giving the youngsters on the fourth line lots of playing time and valuable experience.
Wild card race
St. Louis Blues
Realistically, only the St. Louis Blues are the only team outside the playoff bubble that still have a chance at a wild card spot, five points behind the Kings for the last position. Both Los Angeles and Vegas are in striking distance for St. Louis, but one of those two teams will qualify as the No. 3 seed in the Pacific Division. Vegas has a six-point lead with nine games remaining, and Los Angeles has 10 games left. According to tankathon.com, the Blues have the second easiest schedule remaining.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is sitting at 87 points and won four of its last five games. The Kings do have a game in hand over St. Louis and Vegas but will need to finish strong to keep their playoff spot. The Kings also have an easy schedule remaining and actually have the easiest of all NHL teams, according to tankathon.com.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas has the toughest remaining schedule of the teams fighting for a spot, coming in at 17th hardest in the NHL. The Knights did not make it easy on themselves, going to overtime with both St. Louis and Nashville, but they finished with an impressive 3-0-1 record this week that has put them in the third playoff spot in the Pacific Division.
Nashville Predators
Nashville’s unbeaten streak was ended at 18 games (16-0-2) by the Arizona Coyotes (of all teams) on Thursday night. The Predators have pretty much punched their ticket to the playoffs, holding an eight-point lead over St. Louis. They are only four points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the third spot in the Central Division. The Jets and Predators will play one more time this season, so that lead could disappear quickly.
The week ahead for the Kraken
The Seattle Kraken have three games this week (Mar. 29-Apr. 3). They will face one team from each team categorization, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker:
Mar. 30 (Home) – Kraken vs. Stars – Playoff Bound
Apr. 1 (Away) – Kraken vs. Sharks – Tanker
Apr. 3 (Away) – Kraken vs. Los Angeles – Bubble
Personally, I am looking to the game versus the San Jose Sharks, as the Kraken look to avenge the 2-0 shutout they got handed back on Jan. 30.
The Kraken probably will be eliminated from playoff contention in the next week or two. If the Kraken lose two or more games this week, that would likely do it. If they get a couple wins, this could stretch out for another week.
More call-ups?
With Morrison and Winterton getting called up to the Kraken, we are thinking that Shane Wright will be brought up for a couple games before the end of the season. Wright has only played in three games with the Kraken this year. He can play six more without burning a year of his entry-level contract. Overlaying the Firebirds schedule with the Kraken schedule, we theorize that if Wright is called up, it is most likely for the Apr. 9 and Apr. 11 home games against the Coyotes and Sharks.
