A recent story from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic gained traction locally when it cast doubt on the performance of the Seattle Kraken front office in free agency. Luszczyszyn analyzed unrestricted free agent contracts from the last five years against the player’s “expected value” as of the time of signing under his player performance model. While Luszczyszyn’s goal was to understand whether teams in states without state income tax had an advantage, he noted that Seattle ranked last (tied with Anaheim) in contract dollars relative to value in his sample.
As Luszczyszyn concedes, his model is “not the [sole] arbiter of truth,” but his analysis raises a number of questions. How do free agency decisions get made? And how have the Kraken measured up against expectations? Are there other ways we can or should be looking at the issue if our goal is to understand Seattle’s performance signing unrestricted free agents on the market?
That’s our topic for today. With contract data from PuckPediaand contract projections from Evolving Hockey, I can offer a few more data points to consider. Let’s get to it.
The most dangerous day on the calendar
July 1 is a chaotic day for NHL front offices. The restriction on contacting free agents from other teams is lifted at noon Eastern Time, and within hours, a large majority of the “best available” free agents have signed a contract.
It is a frenzied end to an arduous process. In the months leading up to free agency, teams spend countless hours valuing players and identifying targets, culminating in June pro scouting meetings where an offseason plan is set. All of that work is deployed on July 1.
“I’ve always said the two most dangerous days are trade deadline day and free agency day,” Seattle Kraken president of hockey ops Ron Francis has often refrained, because “it’s easy to overpay for players” at those times. This is a common sentiment around the league. Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Don Waddell has called July 1 a day where “you can get yourself in big trouble.”
Why is this? What actually happens during those fleeting hours on free agency day? Kraken general manager Jason Botterill gave a glimpse behind the curtain to Seattle Kraken season ticket holders during a July 3 breakfast before the final day of the 2025 Kraken Development Camp.
Shortly after noon, teams contact player agents with a fully realized offer, along with a pitch about why the team and market is a good fit for the player. In a competitive situation, the agent is compiling multiple offers and helping the player decide between them. It is relatively rare that a negotiation on core term or value elements happens on July 1 because there is not time to do it. The agent may come back with a minor counteroffer around the margins relating to signing bonuses, cash flow, or the like, but July 1 deals often resemble the team’s initial proposal.
This puts a lot of stress not only on the team’s internal player valuations—we think this forward is “worth” X—but also its market analysis—this player is one of the only top-six centers available, and we think he’ll get a competitive offer from team Y or Z. Teams are making big decisions, in a hard-cap environment, based on imperfect information—hence the danger.
Methods of analyzing performance in free agency
Through five free agency periods, how have the Seattle Kraken performed in their unrestricted free agent contracts? Has the team beaten or fallen behind its competitors? We could strive for answers a few ways.
Return on investment approach. One approach would be to consider the return on investment. With the benefit of hindsight, how have the players the Kraken signed performed relative to the contracts given to them? This could be judged by various standard or advanced metrics measuring player performance.
This is a worthy inquiry, but it is probably premature to reach any conclusions for the Kraken using this method given that the final analysis remains open on several deals the Kraken signed before the team ever took the ice, including Philipp Grubauer, Jamie Olekisak, and Jaden Schwartz. Perhaps we can return to this approach a few years down the road.
Projected performance approach. Another approach would be to compare the contracts the team handed out versus a projection of player value over the term of the contract at the time the contract was signed. This approach is unconcerned with actual performance and escapes any accusation of hindsight bias by using only the information that was available as of signing. This was Luszczyszyn’s approach, using his model. Again, Luszczyszyn’s model is not the only one. One could use other methods of projecting player value using standard or advanced metrics or alternative player valuation models.
Market approach. As we discussed above, though, player value is only half of the player acquisition story. What if we wanted to understand how the player contract measured up against market expectations at the time it was signed? One could do this by comparing the contracts the Kraken handed out against contemporaneous projections of player market value.
This is a complex task that involves developing an accurate understanding of how to predict market value. Fortunately for us, Evolving Hockey has developed such a contract projection system that has proven quite accurate over time.
I would recommend giving Evolving Hockey‘s contract projection explainer a read. In short, the model uses inputs including position, age, contract status, draft round, years since draft, time on ice, goals, primary assists, individual shot attempts, individual expected goals, giveaways, takeways, on-ice 5-on-5 goal differential, and on-ice 5-on-5 shot attempt differential, among others, to create value projections based on various potential term lengths. The model yields a “projected” contract by estimating the contract term first and then linking it to the AAV the model projects for that term.
For example, Evolving Hockey’s contract tool projected a four-year contract for defenseman Ryan Lindgren in free agency this offseason with a further projection of $4.841 million average annual value. Ultimately, Lindgren signed a four-year contract with a $4.5 million average annual value in Seattle. Regardless of what a specific projection system may predict Lindgren’s future value—whether Luszczyszyn’s or any other—we can say that Lindgren’s contract was roughly in line with what the expected market was for him.
Using Evolving Hockey’s projections plus contract information compiled by PuckPedia, we can generalize from this individual example to every unrestricted free agent signing during the summer free agency period over the last five years—i.e., since the Kraken have been in existence—to determine which contracts and teams have gone over or under market expectation. How does Seattle fare?
Kraken contracts versus market expectation
While Luszczyszyn’s projected-value approach disliked Seattle’s contracts, our market-oriented analysis tells a slightly different story. On a per-year basis—which is how Luszczyszyn reported his results—Seattle’s contracts came in better than expectation: approximately $160,000 lower than predicted by Evolving Hockey’s model.
(It’s worth noting that for reasons explained shortly, goalies are not included here. If Philipp Grubauer’s six-year, $35.4 million deal were part of it, the Kraken may have poorer contract performance metrics.)
In terms of total contract value paid, however, Seattle does come in above the predicted level. The contracts averaged $1.15 million total value above expectation. This is because three of the more overvalued contracts based on Evolving Hockey’s model (Brandon Montour, Chandler Stephenson, and Jaden Schwartz) were also significantly longer-term deals than projected.
Where does Seattle stack up versus the rest of the league? In terms of annual contract value surplus, the Kraken rank 14th in the NHL over the last five years. In terms of total contract value, Seattle ranks 27th.
Remarkably, Anaheim’s contracts, which were tied for last in Luszczyszyn’s projected annual value analysis, come out middle of the pack in this look on an annual basis and best in the league on a total surplus value basis.
Market analysis methodology
For this exercise, I compiled a list of all unrestricted free agent skater contracts signed between June and September over the last five summer signing periods valued at $1 million average annual value or greater. I believe this mostly replicates Luszczyszyn’s sample, though he didn’t specify whether he included unrestricted free agents re-signing with their own team before reaching free agency.
I included signings in June because by that point these players understand their market value (ahem) even if they are not technically a free agent. It was also necessary to capture many significant signings, including the Mitch Marner signing this offseason.
I excluded contract extensions—deals that would begin a full season out—since those are not true unrestricted free agent signings. Goalies weren’t included because Evolving Hockey does not create projections for them. (Luszczyszyn’s analysis didn’t include goalies either.) And, finally, I excluded low-value contracts below $1 million because the question of “value” disappears for marginal players whose contracts can be buried in the AHL without payroll or cap consequence. (Luszczyszyn also excluded these low-value deals.)
Conclusions, caveats, and context (plus taxes)
Looking at Seattle’s contracts chronologically (as displayed in Table 1 above), we see that the Kraken have generally met or out-performed market expectations, with just a few exceptions. While Seattle signed a few “above-market” contracts in its inaugural year, this makes sense when factoring in that the team likely needed to pay a premium to attract veteran talent to a new franchise. Beyond that, only the 2024 signings of Montour and Stephenson stand out negatively based on Evolving Hockey’s market value model. And there is plenty of context to put around those signings—Seattle had a surplus of cap space, a deficit of talent, and immense pressure to compete as a new franchise looking solidify its fanbase and season-ticket renewals under the specter of the NBA’s return to city.
Even omitting that important context, Seattle’s five-year market performance (as displayed in Table 2 above) is very similar to that of the well-regarded Tampa Bay Lightning, both on an annual and total-value basis. Returning to Luszczyszyn’s original prompt, this is particularly notable because the Lightning’s home state of Florida is income tax free, just like Washington State.
Any approach has its limitations, and this one is no different. Looking at Seattle’s deals with hindsight, it’s easy to say that the “best” market value contract (Andre Burakovsky) was a debacle, while the “worst” market value contract (Montour) had a strong first year. Again, this market study is not attempting to measure return on investment. That’s a different analysis—one we may undertake in a few years.
Finally, a few caveats before we close this out. First, Evolving Hockey missed about a dozen projections league-wide over the five-year stretch. I don’t think those contracts would have significantly influenced the results here because each of the contracts were relatively minor.
Second, the five-year sample is quite small. There’s no way around that; individual outlier contracts can easily skew a team’s standing in this study.
Finally, as mentioned above, this study does not account for goalie contracts. Philipp Grubauer’s contract remains one of the largest in Kraken franchise history, and it was met with mixed reception at the time it was signed. That contract is part of Seattle’s history of signing free agents, even if it doesn’t factor into the numbers here.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
This article is both my introduction to SoundOfHockey.com and an introduction to PWHL Seattle to the uninitiated fan. But also, I wanted this article to be a metaphorical lighting of the beacons to call you to my cause. Professional women’s hockey is coming to Seattle, and you should be a fan.
Here are six reasons why you should care about the PWHL coming to Seattle this season.
1. Rule changes make the game (even more) fun
The PWHL has implemented some rule changes that many NHL fans find appealing. In my opinion, the changes work. Games are quicker paced, there is a ton of scoring (over five goals scored per game), and it gives the game a slightly different look for both veteran fans and newbies alike. Some new fans may not know, but the women’s game has oft pioneered rule changes that end up getting adopted by the rest of hockey.
Here are a few of the differences in the PWHL from the hockey that you may have been watching:
Standings point system:
3 points – Regulation Win
2 points – OT or Shootout Win
1 point – OT or Shootout Loss
0 points – Regulation Loss
Playoffs: The top four teams of the regular season make it to the postseason. High seeds get to choose their opponent in the first round, which makes for some exciting upsets and motivated underdogs.
No tanking: There are also rules in place to stop teams from tanking for higher draft picks. Once a team is eliminated from playoff contention, they begin earning “Draft Order Points” to determine how high they will pick. That way, they aren’t incentivized to lose games late in the season.
Jailbreak goal: Players on minor penalties are released from the box if their team scores short-handed.
2. A chance to support out queer, trans, and gender-nonconforming athletes
I probably don’t have to tell you that women’s sports are at the center of a giant culture war. Queer athletes, trans athletes, and even straight, cisgender, women who do not fit society’s expectations of what a female athlete should look like are being pressured out of sports at every level.
One of PWHL Seattle’s acquisitions, goaltender Carly (CJ) Jackson is non-binary and uses they and she pronouns. “Hockey has been a place where pretty consistently I’ve felt most like myself,” Jackson said in this Toronto Star article. Now’s the time for you to root for a team and a league that has chosen the path of inclusion over exclusion and hate.
3. You like physicality? We’ve got physicality… You like personality? We’ve got personality
Physicality and personality both presented beautifully in this mic’d-up segment with new PWHL Seattle forward, Lexie Adzija, in which she can be seen looking for her mama, hyping the skill of teammate Hilary Knight, leveling opponents, and just hoping “both teams have fun.”
4. The PWHL Seattle roster is legitimately stacked
Seattle could be very good in its inaugural season. First and foremost, we have Captain America, A.K.A. Hilary Knight, who, by many metrics, is the best… period. She certainly is the GOAT of the IIHF World Championship, where she has won 14 medals. That’s more than anyone. Ever. Man or woman. I feel I shouldn’t have to say more, but I will.
Hilary Knight stickhandles for the Boston Fleet in a Takeover Tour game against the Montreal Victoire in Seattle. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for a skilled player who maybe hasn’t had the chance she deserved (a comeback queen, if you will), give Alex Carpenter a try.
Interested in young talent? Hannah Bilka and Cayla Barnes would like a word.
A goalie trio of lovable weirdos? We got it!
The team even has two players from Minnesota! For those interested in the #Minnutiae.
Because the PWHL is a much smaller league than the NHL, teams have incredible depth in skill. And because the players haven’t been media trained since they were 16 years old like many male pros who rose through junior hockey ranks, they let their personalities show.
I wish I could tell you now about everyone’s weird superstitions, hockey histories, and our new goalie’s life growing up on an egg farm in a town with a population of 339, but there isn’t time in this article.
Have no fear, though. In the coming weeks and months, I endeavor to profile the staff and athletes who will make up our team, so you can figure out who you want to watch closely going into the inaugural season. PWHL Seattle can and will be competitive right away.
5. The community is brand new, and there is a low barrier to entry
You can be a part of building something new, positive, and great here in Seattle. Women’s sports are having their moment in America and the world at large. If you are a Kraken fan, maybe you know a thing or two about being a fan of a team from Day 1 and the excitement and community that builds organically around the team.
If you are new to sports, great! This is a brand-new team, so you can learn along with a bunch of other new fans.
If you are new to Seattle, great! Sports fandom is an excellent way to meet people and be more involved in the community.
Women’s sports fans form a small, tightly knit, and supportive group. At the PWHL Takeover game last year, I received a friendship bracelet made by a complete stranger who made a ton of them and was giving them out purely for the love of the game, bringing joy to fellow fans.
You can have a hand in how PWHL Seattle establishes itself. You can, and will, make friends, dress in wacky outfits, and make fun signs.
Plus, all games are FREE to watch on YouTube. Incredible.
6. Growing the game is important… Be a part of showing that hockey is for everyone
Look, I know Seattle sports culture. I have lived my entire life in Seattle. I have seen how this city can embrace expansion teams like the Sounders, Kraken, and Reign. I also know that there are so many other cool things to spend your time and money on as a Seattle sports fan (the Mariners are good this season?????!!!!!!).
To make things a little personal, growing up as a girl who was also a jock in Seattle in the ’90s wasn’t always easy. I wanted to be physical, play a game that pushed the boundaries. Heck, I was pissed when I discovered the boy’s lacrosse team got to whap each other with sticks, and I was forced to run around in a skirt and goggles. I didn’t see where my future possibly could be because there were no role models. Being a woman and being strong, competitive, and physical didn’t exist into adulthood, and it certainly wasn’t a career option. But enjoy your youth wrestling and playing water polo, kid. I can’t turn back the clock for me, but let’s lift up this team and these athletes for the kids who now have a chance to see what their full potential could be.
These six reasons are why, dear reader, it is crucial that you join me in my fandom. Knowing the audience at Sound Of Hockey, many of you are on board and have been since the beginning, and we are already making big waves. We had thousands of people sign up to be on the waiting list for season tickets. Every hockey fan I know who is a woman, queer, or has a daughter is already all in on PWHL Seattle. But we need you too! We need everyone to turn the tide and make this community a success. So, get excited about stupid name speculation, get to know the athletes, go watch a practice. It’s fun, it’s revolutionary, and hey, you might even enjoy yourself.
The Seattle Kraken wrapped up the 2024–25 campaign sitting 27th in the NHL standings—a spot in which nobody in the organization, or the fanbase, wanted to be. But while the season as a whole was frustrating, the numbers show the Kraken actually excelled in some very specific areas. These are the little “micro stats” that don’t always make headlines but do reveal some positive performance trends from the 2024–25 squad.
I want to highlight four categories where Seattle finished well above league average: comeback wins, response goals, times shorthanded, and goals off the face-off. I’ll also take a swing at whether these bright spots can carry over into next season.
Comeback wins
Definition: A comeback win is any game in which the Kraken trailed by at least two goals at some point but still found a way to win.
What the data shows:
This phenomenon blew me away all season, especially considering the team didn’t come back from a two-goal deficit once during the 2023–24 season.
Outlook
Comeback wins are usually a sign of resilience and buy-in, but they’re also tough to repeat consistently. It’s unlikely they repeat this feat next season, given they led the league in 2024–25 and are more likely to regress. On the flip side, maybe they simply won’t find themselves down by two as often next season.
Response goals
Definition: A response goal happens when one team scores and the other answers back within 60 seconds. This has two sides for Seattle: (1) bouncing back quickly after being scored on, and (2) preventing opponents from striking right after a Kraken goal.
What the data shows
I’m sure a lot of Kraken fans will be surprised to hear this, but the team was strong in both sides of response goals. Much like the two-goal comebacks, it was another sign of resilience last season.
Buffalo tied the game at 3, but #SeaKraken take back the lead after tremendous work behind the goal by McCann and a delicious feed from below the goal line from Wright to Oleksiak pic.twitter.com/8w1DzQYyfS
Response goals are partly about structure, partly about focus. This is a category where coaching has real influence, so with Lane Lambert in place as the new head coach, I’d expect some changes. I believe Lambert will emphasize structure more than Dan Bylsma did, which might reduce the “response goals for” category, as the team leans into a mindset of “stabilization” over “response.” On the other hand, that same focus could help the Kraken maintain their strength in limiting “response goals against.”
Times shorthanded
Definition: This one’s pretty straightforward—the number of times Seattle had to kill a penalty. Fewer trips to the box mean more time at even strength, which is where most games are decided. Connected to this is net penalties (penalties drawn versus penalties taken), which gives a more complete picture.
What the data shows
Seattle averaged the fourth-fewest times shorthanded per game in the league—something they’ll definitely want to carry into next season.
Outlook
Discipline has been a strength for Seattle since it entered the league, much of it driven by personnel. Some roster changes this offseason might nudge the team’s shorthanded numbers up a bit, but the impact should be relatively small—especially if the penalty kill improves, as expected.
Goals off the face-off
Definition: A goal scored within 10 seconds of a face-off. This combines face-off possession with quick execution of set plays and finishing ability.
What the data shows
The Kraken scored 14 goals off face-offs last season, which is a lot. I also shared charts showing face-off-driven shot attempts per game to illustrate how many opportunities they generated from these situations.
And, of course, this gave us the chance to enjoy this beauty:
Also, fun fact on Montour's OT GWG…i talked to him & Stephenson about "the plan" …wasn't matchup, wasn't pending post-faceoff switch or pre-scout…was all about MTL's skaters being all on the line with no one back.
Seattle’s total of 14 face-off goals looks a little high compared to their relatively low number of face-off-driven shot attempts, which suggests some regression could be coming. But there’s upside too: if players like Matty Beniers and Shane Wright keep improving in the dot, they could generate more opportunities to help balance things out.
What should we make of these silver linings?
Yes, the Kraken finished 27th overall in the standings, and yes, there’s plenty that needs to improve. But the numbers show they weren’t completely devoid of strengths—there were a handful of areas where Seattle actually outpaced the league, even in a down year.
These micro stats: comeback wins, response goals, discipline, and face-off-driven offense, might seem subtle, but they can add up to meaningful impacts in the standings when paired with improvements in the more obvious categories like scoring depth and goaltending.
It’s important to note that this analysis is based on publicly available data. Without detailed puck and player tracking, we don’t always get the full picture. Still, these categories offer a solid window into some quiet strengths for Seattle.
The hope, of course, is that these positives stay above league average while the Kraken clean up other parts of their game. I’ll dig into those areas for improvement in next week’s piece.
Looking at what the Seattle Kraken have done this offseason under new general manager Jason Botterill, it’s plain to see that he expects to factor a couple of young players rising through the ranks into his lineup in 2025-26. After trading for Mason Marchment and Frederick Gaudreau and signing Ryan Lindgren to a four-year, $18 million contract, two spots in the forward corps remain open to theoretically be filled by rookies.
There are three young players that we believe—for different reasons—have the strongest chances to make the Opening Night lineup.
Why do we think these players can make the team? What roles will they play for Seattle? How much production can we expect out of them? Let’s dig in.
Why Berkly Catton could make the team
Saying we think Berkly Catton will make the initial NHL roster is not the boldest prediction we have ever made here on Sound Of Hockey dot com (that’s Sound Of Hockey… dot com). Botterill has said publicly that he doesn’t want to block young players in the pipeline from making the team, and the high-flying captain of the Spokane Chiefs is widely viewed as the best prospect in Seattle’s system.
Surely, the team would prefer to start Catton in Coachella Valley of the AHL, where he could theoretically get used to playing professional hockey against men. But because he is only 19 years old, and because the old CHL/NHL transfer agreement that forbids 19-year-old CHL players from playing in the AHL is in place for one more season, the Firebirds are not an option for Catton. So he can only stick in the NHL or return to the WHL, where he just dominated for the second season in a row, posting 109 points (38 goals, 71 assists) in 57 games, plus an eye-popping 42 points (11-31=42) in 20 playoff games.
Berkly Catton stickhandles during Development Camp. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The rule barring Catton from the AHL will change in 2026-27, when each team will be allowed to put one 19-year-old CHL player in the AHL. But until then, Catton is beholden to the same restriction that made Shane Wright’s 19-year-old season an absolute whirlwind—taking him to Seattle, briefly to Coachella Valley for a loophole conditioning stint, then to the IIHF World Junior Championship, and then back to the OHL, where he was traded from the Kingston Frontenacs to the Windsor Spitfires.
There is a strong chance Catton’s season will be similarly chaotic if he gets into the NHL and shows he’s not quite ready for a full-time role. Regardless, I am confident he will make the team out of camp, stick around at least until he hits the nine-game contract slide threshold, and then Seattle will decide what to do with him.
In a way, the age rule gives Catton an inside track at making the team out of camp, even if he’s not truly ready; the question is how long he stays.
Why Jani Nyman could make the team
Jani Nyman, a more seasoned pro at 21 years old, also has a good chance of making the team, and one could imagine him playing more NHL games than Catton, even if he doesn’t break camp with the Kraken. His 12-game stint with the big club last season delivered some electric moments, and he ended up with six points (3-3=6) before returning to the Firebirds for their playoff push.
After two outstanding seasons for Ilves of the Finnish Liiga, Nyman came to North America and immediately produced for the Firebirds, scoring 44 points (28-16=44) and leading all AHL rookies in goals. There is reason to believe his heavy shot makes him a legitimate and immediate threat on an NHL power play.
My question for Nyman is where he could play at 5-on-5. The Kraken have Jaden Schwartz, Kaapo Kakko, Jared McCann, Mason Marchment, Jordan Eberle, and Eeli Tolvanen theoretically filling out their wing roles on the top three lines, not to mention Catton, who I think will also start on wing. Can Nyman pry one of those spots away from a veteran? Or are the Kraken comfortable playing him in a fourth-line role?
I don’t see the latter being a good fit for Nyman, who isn’t being developed by Seattle as a fourth-liner. Assuming good health for the team, I believe this stacks the deck against him. Catton faces a similar role-related conundrum, but the AHL option for Nyman could be enticing for the Kraken if he doesn’t blow them away in training camp.
Why Jacob Melanson could make the team
While there may not be an ideal roster fit for Nyman, there is one for hard-nosed 22-year-old winger Jacob Melanson, who plays a prototypical fourth-line style. Including Catton and Tye Kartye, who signed a two-year contract worth $2.5 million earlier this summer, the Kraken have 12 forwards who I think are (more or less) locks to be on the roster in October.
But there’s room for another bottom-of-the-lineup-type player, and Melanson—who showed well in his one NHL game last season—fits that mold better than Nyman or Catton.
What production can we expect out of these players?
How much Seattle can expect in terms of production from its rookies is a crapshoot. There are so many variables to consider, including which of them ends up with the NHL team and how long they stick around. Plus, there are other forward prospects who have knocked at the door, like Ryan Winterton and Logan Morrison. And what about others who haven’t yet made their NHL debuts, like Eduard Sale, Jagger Firkus, David Goyette, Carson Rehkopf, et al? Could any of them come in and blow the doors off at training camp?
There’s also still a chance Seattle acquires a player or two, which could block a rookie from making the team.
Even so, let’s make some wild predictions about how a Catton, Nyman, and/or Melanson rookie season could look.
Berkly Catton
Here are some players with comparable profiles to Berkly Catton and how they performed as rookies:
Matty Beniers (Kraken, 2022-23): 57 points (24-33=57) in 80 GP and won the Calder Trophy in his first full season. Beniers had the advantage, though, of playing 10 NHL games the year before his true “rookie” season and came from NCAA, where he played against older competition than Catton has.
Cole Perfetti (Jets, 2022-23): That same season, Perfetti—the No. 10 pick in 2020 and similar in size to Catton—posted 30 points in 51 games. He too had an advantage over Catton, as he was allowed to play 32 AHL games for the Manitoba Moose as a 19-year-old due to temporary changes to the CHL/NHL transfer agreement during COVID.
Clayton Keller (Coyotes, 2017-18): After 65 points (23-42=65) in 82 GP as a rookie, Keller blossomed into a consistent 30-plus goal scorer and touched 90 points this past season. The Kraken would be ecstatic if Catton turns out to be a Keller-esque player.
Those are some big-time players, and although their profiles are similar to Catton’s, I’m not convinced he will have that significant of an impact this season. I’m going to project that he takes a similar wild ride to Wright’s 19-year-old season and only plays nine games spread over two months for the Kraken, posting around three points. I hope I’m wrong about that, but it feels to me like he’s a year away from being a productive, full-time NHLer.
Jani Nyman
If Nyman does get a significant role this season, I have to think it will be mostly in a depth position with power-play usage. So he probably won’t score a ton at 5-on-5, but he could pump in some one-timers with the manpower advantage.
Here’s how a couple of similarly profiled players performed as rookies:
Josh Anderson (Blue Jackets, 2016-17): 29 points (17-12=29) in 78 games as a rookie in Columbus.
Tanner Jeannot (Predators, 2021-22): 41 points (24-17=41) in 81 games. This feels like the highest possible outcome for Nyman, and I only see him playing this many games if there’s an injury out of camp that affords him a chance to play up the lineup right from the start of the season.
Those comparables could be realistic if Nyman can carve out a full-time role and get meaningful minutes, but I’m not convinced that will happen. I’m predicting 50 NHL games for him and something in the range of 20 points. He’ll spend the rest of the season improving his skating, lighting up the AHL, and biding his time to become a key Kraken contributor in 2026-27.
Jacob Melanson
If Melanson sticks with the team, it will be because of his two-way, gritty play, not because of his offensive production. I’d project 10 points for him in… let’s say 20 games.
With Catton, Nyman, and Melanson factored in, here’s how our depth chart currently looks for the Kraken. I don’t necessarily think Catton is above Eeli Tolvanen, but if Seattle wants to carve out a top-nine role for Catton, Tolvanen feels like the most likely player to slide to the fourth line.
Forwards Jaden Schwartz // Matty Beniers // Kaapo Kakko Jared McCann // Chandler Stephenson // Mason Marchment Berkly Catton // Shane Wright // Jordan Eberle Eeli Tolvanen // Frederick Gaudreau // Tye Kartye Jani Nyman // Jacob Melanson
Defense Vince Dunn // Adam Larsson Ryan Lindgren // Brandon Montour Ryker Evans // Jamie Oleksiak Josh Mahura Ville Ottavainen Cale Fleury
Goalies Joey Daccord Philipp Grubauer
It goes without saying the Kraken will not make it through the full season without injuries, so even if two of the rookies mentioned in this article are not in the lineup on Opening Night, it is likely that a spot will open up as the season goes on. Even so, it does seem Seattle could benefit from adding a veteran player to its midst, either at the top of the lineup via trade (which is becoming less and less likely the deeper we get into the doldrums of summer) or at the bottom of the lineup with a waiver claim or free-agent signing.
What say you, folks? Will one or more rookie forwards play a key role for the Kraken this season? Or do they sign another depth player or two?
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Last week I posted a deep dive on the Seattle Kraken’s goal scoring over the 2024–25 season. Several of you asked to see the other side of the equation, so this week I’m doing another deep dive, this time into goals against. The publicly available data and tools are limited, so this breakdown will be a bit basic and theoretically incomplete, bur it gives us an idea of how the Kraken have trended.
Establishing a baseline
If there’s a broad area you can point to as the reason for the disappointing 2024–25 season, it’s the goals against. Without any high-end talent, the Kraken have had to lean heavily on team defense to be competitive. But this past season saw the Kraken allow the most goals per game since their inaugural year.
They finished 22nd in the league, giving up 3.20 goals per game. Compared to last year’s 2.83, that’s an increase of +0.37 goals per game.
Goals against by situation
Just like we approached Kraken goals for last week, let’s break down how teams scored against the Kraken.
Maybe a little surprising: the Kraken’s goals against while shorthanded were relatively low, just 0.54 per game. Here’s how the goals against by scenario compares across the league in 2024–25.
Clearly, the Kraken need to improve their defense on their 5-on-5 play which is a large percentage of their even-strength time on ice.
Penalty kill performance
From a goals-against-on-the-penalty-kill perspective, the Kraken look… alright. They allowed the 10th-fewest total power-play goals against, despite ranking 27th in the league on penalty kill percentage. It turns out that encouraging total is propped up by the fact Seattle was one of the most disciplined teams in the league.
Seattle was fifth in the NHL for fewest times shorthanded. So while the raw total looks fine, the percentage was below average, and we’ve already talked about how offseason additions should help improve that. Here’s how the Kraken’s PK volume and efficiency stack up league-wide.
Shots against volume
Now let’s look at the Kraken’s shots against per game.
Seattle ranked 17th in the league in shots against, which is again a little surprising, given their 27th-place finish in the standings. But as we all know, not all shots are created equal. So let’s dig into the quality of shots against: high, medium, and low danger.
Like the overall shot volume, the Kraken were right around the league average in high- and medium-danger shots allowed. That’s not bad at all, especially considering several 2025 playoff teams allowed more dangerous chances per game. The Kraken did allow more low-danger shots than most, but that’s not terribly concerning.
Team goaltending
Of course, the other critical element of team defense is goaltending. So let’s check in on team save percentage, broken out by strength.
As you might expect, Seattle’s team save percentage was on the low side, but still (somehow) above two playoff teams: Montreal and Carolina. Still, there’s a lot of room for improvement.
Here’s a look at the Kraken’s save percentages by shot danger level, per NaturalStatTrick.com:
Interestingly, the Kraken’s save percentage got worse relative to the rest of the league as the shots got easier. Spot-checking other teams reveals a lack of consistency. For example, Anaheim was 22nd in high-danger save percentage, fourth in medium-danger, and first in low-danger save percentage.
We can theorize that there’s something systemic at play here, maybe Anaheim’s defensive structure prevents cross-ice passes in medium- and low-danger areas but leaves low-danger shooters more open for cross-seam chances. The inverse might be true for the Kraken’s 2024-25 system implemented by Dan Bylsma.
Individual goalie save percentage
We all know Philipp Grubauer struggled this past season, and the numbers back that up. But let’s put it in context by looking at save percentages for all goalies who played 25+ games.
Yeah… no sugarcoating that one.
Just for good measure, let’s look at Grubauer’s save percentage by shot quality.
It’s a pretty poor performance across the board.
Outlook for 2025-26
Aside from the obvious need for improvement from Grubauer, the Kraken are actually middle of the pack in a lot of defensive categories. As mentioned before, the additions of Ryan Lindgren and Fredrick Gaudreau should help the penalty kill.
There’s also hope that Lane Lambert can implement systems that reduce both the volume and quality of shots the Kraken face, which, in theory, should cut down on goals against.
Final thoughts
All in all, the Kraken’s goals against story in 2024–25 is a mixed bag. Some areas, like overall shot volume and penalty kill goals allowed, aren’t as dire as the standings might suggest, while other areas, like 5-on-5 goals allowed and backup goaltending, clearly have room for improvement. With some key roster tweaks already in place and a new coaching staff behind the bench, there’s at least some reason for cautious optimism heading into 2025–26 that things will get better. The defense doesn’t need to become elite overnight, but if the Kraken can bring the goals against down even a little, they’ll give themselves a much better shot at turning things around.
The World Junior Summer Showcase is an idle summer exhibition among four U20 national teams. No trophy or title is on the line, and summer play always needs to be taken in context.
It also means a lot, though. For the nations—the United States, Canada, Sweden, and Finland—it marks the culmination of summer work as they begin their quest to claim the 2026 World Junior Championship. For the players, it is a last chance to leave an impression on team management before dispersing to their various club teams for fall play.
For fans, the World Junior Summer Showcase is an oasis in a 45-day hockey desert between July 1 and the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in mid-August. It is a sneak peek at the teams and players who will take center stage come December. It is also an opportunity to get a glimpse at an elite grouping of NHL prospects together on a level playing field—including some newly drafted players that fans may have never seen play live before.
We tracked the event with an eye on the Seattle Kraken prospects participating—goalie Kim Saarinen for Finland, defenseman Blake Fiddler for the United States, and forwards Berkly Catton, Jake O’Brien, and Ollie Josephson for Canada. How did they look and what do their World Juniors prospects looks like? Let’s dig in with some quick takeaways and game video to bring you up to speed.
Team Finland
Finland won four of the five games it played and exceeded expectations more than any other team. If you were stacking the countries by total talent, Finland would be fourth—even with some other teams sitting many returning players. Yet, Finland topped the United States in two of three contests and beat Canada and Sweden in their only meetings. Aatos Koivu (2024 third-round pick, Montreal) led the event scoring with six goals.
Kraken forward prospect and Everett Silvertip Julius Miettinen did not participate in the World Junior Summer Showcase for Finland, though he was on Finland’s summer camp list. It’s unclear if he was held out with an injury or because his spot at the tournament is secure. Either way, the 2024 second-rounder’s spot is most certainly secure as a top-six piece for Finland—with some suggesting he could be set for top-line responsibilities in December.
Kim Saarinen | G | 19 years old | Seattle Kraken 2024 third-round pick
Saarinen earned a spot on last year’s World Juniors team after a strong fall in club play. Though he didn’t crack the lineup at last year’s event, he continued to burnish his track record with even better club play down the stretch—finishing third overall in Liiga, Finland’s top professional league, in save percentage.
This work earned Saarinen the first start for Team Finland at the World Junior Summer Showcase against a United States split-squad unit that included Blake Fiddler. Unfortunately for Saarinen, he was the last line of defense behind what was easily Finland’s worst 30 minutes of the Showcase through the first half of that game. The United States piled up dangerous chances, with Saarinen performing admirably to keep Finland afloat.
Team USA White could easily have had 4 or 5 goals in the 1st period of Game 1 vs. Finland at the World Junior Summer Showcase. #SeaKraken goalie Kim Saarinen gave up only one and it was on a perfectly-executed, dead-red 2-on-0 where he had no chance. Many other grade A saves ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/M6T6PEvuwU
Ultimately, it wasn’t enough for Finland that day, though Saarinen’s final stat line of 20 saves on 24 shots hardly does justice to how well he played. Only one of those goals was on less than a “high-danger” shot, and he turned away at least six or seven other point-blank looks.
He earned one more start in the tournament—against Team Canada—and he looked even better, turning away 30 of 33 shots on goal and earning the win. Again, Canada could easily have had a few more but for Saarinen’s relatively strong work.
Unfortunately for Saarinen, the goalie he sat behind at last year’s World Juniors, Petteri Rimpinen, is also eligible to return for this year’s event—and Rimpinen was arguably even better at the Showcase. Rimpinen also had two starts, beating the United States on a 16-of-19 performance and then beating rival Sweden in a 27-of-28 performance in the final game of the event for Finland.
Projection:Saarinen is on Team Finland’s roster for the WJC. He remains behind Rimpinen on the Team Finland depth chart, however. The gap is not so wide as to be insurmountable if Saarinen outplays Rimpinen this fall in Liiga. I’d also expect Saarinen to get at least one start in pool play this year, even if Rimpinen remains entrenched as the primary starter and performs well.
Team USA
Team USA graduated an immensely talented class of players last year, including Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard, and Zeev Buium—not to mention Will Smith, who stuck in the NHL with San Jose and didn’t go to the 2025 World Juniors. This year’s roster is still talented enough to compete into the medal rounds, led by holdover James Hagens, but it will need to do more with less—and successfully integrate a new coaching staff—if it is going to celebrate a third consecutive World Junior Championship on home ice this winter.
The showcase was a warning sign that things aren’t going to come as easily this time. After a split-squad victory over Finland on the first day of the event, Team USA dropped all six of the other games it played.
Blake Fiddler | D | 18 years old | Seattle Kraken 2025 second-round pick
Team USA got a close look at the underage Fiddler, deploying him in four games—two split-squad games to begin and then two of the team’s three full-roster games. Fiddler’s usage, however, suggested he’s at best a bubble projection for the World Juniors roster. Fiddler skated mostly in a third-pair role, with backup usage on the penalty kill.
Despite the limited role, Fiddler brought a solid version of his current game to the Showcase. He activated frequently and was unafraid to carry the puck up the ice and even deep into the opposing zone. He has good offensive instincts to create space and opportunities for his teammates—though he would often push the play a stride or two too far and turn the puck over before his team could capitalize on his earlier good work.
His confidence on the attack is innate and a good foundation for his offensive profile moving forward. Though he didn’t score in this event, and his junior production has not been overwhelming to date, I suspect the point totals could take a step forward this year as the results catch up with the on-ice work.
He’s at his best defensively when he’s diagnosing the play in front of him and being aggressive. He had a few physical blue line denials that were pro-caliber plays. He also missed a couple denial attempts, leaving his team at an odd-numbered disadvantage, but I think it’s good he’s trying for these kind of plays and testing his limits.
Projection:He’s on the outside looking in right now. If he can take a step forward either offensively or defensively this fall, he could make it tough for Team USA to exclude him from the World Juniors roster. His combination of talent and size is rare.
Team Canada
Canada will once again approach the World Junior Championship with more talent than any other team. Can a new coaching staff find the answers necessary to return Canada to top of the podium?
The Showcase was a disappointing first step. While Team Canada was dealing with many injuries and sat most of its returning players after one internal scrimmage and one game against Finland, it still had enough to win any time it stepped on the ice. Even so, Canada prevailed only once. Goaltending continues to be a question mark, though Joshua Ravensbergen flashed some strong play at times.
Berkly Catton | C | 19 years old | Seattle Kraken 2024 first-round pick
Catton will be a key cog for Canada this winter in Minnesota (unless he ends up playing the full season with the Kraken, and they choose not to have him go to the WJC). He’ll be a featured playmaker both at 5-on-5 and on Canada’s top power-play unit. He could even wear the “C” for Canada.
Likely for this reason, Catton didn’t see much ice time at the Showcase, only playing in Canada’s internal scrimmage. He was listed to play against Finland but later removed from the lineup. I haven’t seen any reporting indicating Catton was scratched with an injury, so for now, we will just assume Canada’s brass had simply “seen enough” from Catton.
Catton displayed his trademark skills in the Team Canada scrimmage. Whenever he was out there, he was transporting pucks into the zone, creating space, and setting up his teammates. Unfortunately, the chemistry wasn’t quite there with his linemates yet, and the advantages he won didn’t turn into much.
Projection:Catton’s on the team. It’s on Team Canada to put him in a position where he can leverage his talents to drive play. (I’ll give it a 2.5 percent chance he sticks with Seattle and the team decides not to allow him to go to the WJC.)
Jake O’Brien | C | 18 years old | Seattle Kraken 2025 first-round pick
O’Brien was solid but relatively quiet through most of the Showcase. Canada used him in a third-line center role with very little power-play exposure. O’Brien brings enough all-around skill to be a net positive in this diminished role, but you’re not going to get the best version of the player if you’re leaving his power-play skills on the bench.
Throughout the tournament, O’Brien did a good job driving the play up ice, transporting the puck with agility, puck handling, and vision. The lack of a high-end speed element was notable against this elevated competition. If he can unlock a bit more explosion in his stride, he could be a handful in transition.
In the offensive zone, O’Brien has the creativity, vision, and skill to make high-danger plays whenever the puck is on his stick. While he can create advantages working east to west, the thing I like the most about his offensive play is that he is always moving toward the net, as if by force of gravity. He piles up points by constantly going to the dangerous areas. He’s going to need to add bulk to make that play style work at the professional level, but the baseline is there.
In the last 30 minutes of the Showcase, O’Brien finally found space to put his offensive toolkit to work. First, he evaded a defender in the slot, delayed, and found a teammate, Malcolm Spence, for a tap-in goal.
#SeaKraken prospect Jake O'Brien (#17) with the stick handling, patience and precision pass from the slot to find teammate Malcolm Spence for the tap in.
Canada leads the United States 2-0 through two periods in the capstone rivalry game at the 2025 World Junior Summer Showcase. pic.twitter.com/8p4TJZ6HKg
Later, he worked a give-and-go sequence with Marek Vanacker to perfection before burying the shot for his first and only goal of the event.
#SeaKraken prospect Jake O'Brien adds a goal in the dying moments of the last game of the 2025 World Junior Summer Showcase against Team USA on a sweet give-and-go sequence. O'Brien's passing and finishing skill both on display. pic.twitter.com/Oursp0e5GR
Defensively, O’Brien is willing to get low and hit his landmarks as a center, which a great start. His stick stays active. He can get caught puck watching a bit too much sometimes, and he needs a bit more strength to hold up in critical areas. But the foundation is there.
Projection:On the outside. By the last game of the tournament, O’Brien was being deployed in a third-line role with no special teams responsibilities. Once the returning and injured players are layered back into the lineup, that usage suggests to me that O’Brien may be squeezed out. O’Brien may need a strong fall or other injuries to make the team in December. The second half of the Showcase finale against Team USA was a good first step.
Ollie Josephson | C | 19 years old | Seattle Kraken 2024 fourth-round pick
Josephson’s name wasn’t reported among the likely invitees to Team Canada camp a few weeks ago. Even so, after several forward injuries mounted, Josephson ultimately won an invite and played a steady fourth-line and penalty-kill role across several showcase games.
Josephson can transport the puck through the neutral zone when called upon, but he was at his best hounding opponents on the forecheck and creating pressure at the top of the defensive structure on the penalty kill. It’s clear you can rely on Josephson to do the little things right defensively, but he didn’t have the opportunity to show much offensively in his limited role.
Projection:On the outside. Josephson is the type of player you could have imagined a previous Team Canada regime taking to the tournament as a fourth-liner. Indeed, it’s not difficult to envision him providing a solid 10 or so minutes per game in a forechecking and penalty-killing role. That said, I doubt Team Canada will go that way after taking so much criticism in recent years for leaving high-end talent off the roster. Choosing Josephson (over a player like O’Brien, for example) would be “more of the same” from a team that is likely looking for a new narrative and new results this year.
Parting thoughts as we look ahead to the 2026 World Juniors
In addition to Julius Miettinen, I suspect we’ll see one more player at the 2026 World Juniors who didn’t participate in the Showcase: defenseman Jakub Fibigr. The 2025 seventh-round pick made Team Czechia last year as an underager. While his club play in the OHL plateaued a bit last season, he continued as a stalwart performer for Czechia in international events, and I’d expect that to continue later this year.
I suspect Team Canada considered Nathan Villeneuve as a candidate for a depth role audition this summer, but the team went with Josephson (and others) instead. This does not fully eliminate Villeneuve as a candidate. Carson Rehkopf is an example of a player who didn’t participate in summer camp before earning a spot for Canada at the 2024 World Juniors. But it does put Villeneuve well behind the eight ball—which is too bad because it’s easy to envision Villeneuve as a forechecking terror on the world stage.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
