Welcome to “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. In this quick holiday weekend edition, we’ll get you up to date on a couple of Seattle Kraken prospects playing in the Memorial Cup, one signing his entry-level contract with the Seattle Kraken, and the season-ending loss for the Coachella Valley Firebirds in the Pacific Division Finals. We’ll return with a full Firebirds post-mortem and player-by-player breakdown as we move into offseason mode in the weeks ahead.
I’ve noted a few good questions from social media posts and recent columns that I plan to address in a mailbag-style column soon. If you have a Seattle Kraken prospect-related question you’d like to see featured, drop us a note below or on X or Bluesky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Superlative Coachella Valley Firebirds season ends with loss to Colorado Eagles
In our season-preview piece for the 2025-26 Coachella Valley Firebirds, we noted that the team was significantly less experienced than prior squads and projected to be the youngest collection of players in the American Hockey League. With those facts in mind, we suggested that making the playoffs in any capacity should count as a successful season on the ice.
The Firebirds surpassed those expectations. Playing the full season with a lineup that, in fact, proved to be the AHL’s youngest — even after acquiring AHL veteran Cooper Marody — the Firebirds accrued 88 standings points. That earned Coachella Valley the No. 4 seed in the Pacific Division playoff structure and first-round home-ice advantage.
Of course, the Firebirds’ success did not end there. Coachella Valley defeated the Bakersfield Condors and the Ontario Reign, the Pacific Division’s top team, in playoff rounds one and two. By reaching the Pacific Division Finals, the Firebirds not only bested their postseason performance from last season, they also achieved rare success for a young team.
The Firebirds’ two postseason series wins are currently tied for the most among all AHL teams with above-average regular-season performances and younger-than-average rosters, matched only by the Chicago Wolves. (The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins could join those two if they prevail in the Atlantic Division Finals on Saturday, May 23.)
Through this prism, it’s difficult to allow the frustration of a blown 2–0 lead against the Colorado Eagles in Game 4 of the Pacific Division Finals to linger. The Firebirds dropped the series three games to one to the oldest team in the AHL (by far), and one with legitimate Calder Cup aspirations. (If history is any guide, the Eagles are a shoo-in. The Firebirds still have never lost in the postseason to any team other than the eventual Calder Cup winner.)
For now, a salute to the performance of the players, Coach Laxdal, and his staff is in order. The future remains bright in Palm Desert.
As mentioned, we’ll return with player-specific analysis in future editions. For current purposes, we’ll note that Nikke Kokko posted a .926 save percentage and a shutout last week, which earns him Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week honors.
Minted WHL Playoffs MVP, Miettinen leads Silvertips to the Memorial Cup
As documented last week, Julius Miettinen drove play for Everett throughout the WHL postseason, piling up points individually and wins for the Silvertips. Miettinen capped off his triumphant playoff run with a most valuable player award and a victory over the Prince Albert Raiders.
This performance earned Everett its first WHL Championship and punched its ticket to the Memorial Cup — a tournament pitting the champions of the CHL’s member leagues, plus the host team (this year, the Kelowna Rockets), against one another.
Cameron Riggers has your Everett preview here. The Silvertips take the ice for their first game tonight (Saturday, May 23) at 6:00 p.m. PDT. The full tournament schedule is as follows:
Fri, May 22 – Kitchener (5) vs. Kelowna (0), 6 p.m. PDT Sat, May 23 – Everett vs. Chicoutimi, 6 p.m. PDT Sun, May 24 – Kelowna vs. Chicoutimi, 6 p.m. PDT Mon, May 25 – Everett vs. Kitchener, 6 p.m. PDT Tue, May 26 – Chicoutimi vs. Kitchener, 6 p.m. PDT Wed, May 27 – Kelowna vs. Everett, 6 p.m. PDT Thu, May 28 – Tiebreaker, 6 p.m. PDT* Fri, May 29 – Semifinal, 6 p.m. PDT Sun, May 31 – Championship game, 4 p.m. PDT *if necessary
Alexis Bernier signs entry-level contract, reaches Memorial Cup
As we mentioned in a recent update, the Seattle Kraken faced a June 1, 2026, deadline to sign 2024 third-round pick Alexis Bernier, or the young blueliner would re-enter the 2026 NHL Draft. The Kraken beat that deadline, signing Bernier to a standard three-year entry-level contract on May 19, 2026.
What took so long in Bernier’s case? The defenseman suffered an ACL injury last season and got a late start to his 2025-26 campaign, first taking the ice for the Chicoutimi Saguenéens in late January. The team likely wanted to ensure Bernier was fully recovered and productive before committing to a deal. Bernier assuaged any concerns with a solid run of defensive production in the QMJHL.
Check out Bernier’s shifts from the Saguenéens’ QMJHL Championship-clinching win over the Moncton Wildcats on May 17, 2026:
Like Miettinen and the Silvertips, Bernier and the Saguenéens earned a spot in the Memorial Cup with their championship run. It just so happens their first game is against Everett on Saturday, May 23.
Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker
4 wins: Julius Miettinen, Jake O’Brien
3 wins: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard
Belchetz is an object of curiosity among scouts and amateur draftniks alike because he has the physical profile to be an imposing NHL power forward (6-foot-5, 227 pounds) and the scoring touch to match (34 goals for the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires). He can use his frame to impact the game at junior speed; the question is whether he can raise his pace enough for that to become an asset professionally. If there is a player primed for a Beckett Sennecke-style rise high into the top 10 based on physical projection, it’s likely to be Belchetz or Wyatt Cullen. Belchetz was No. 8 on our midseason Big Board and is No. 9 among North American skaters on the final NHL Central Scouting list. He should go in the first half of the first round in June.
Header photo of Julius Miettinen taken byEvan Morud, courtesy of the Everett Silvertips.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
After much hemming and hawing and retrospection, both from the Kraken and from our team here at Sound Of Hockey, we’re ready to put the 2025-26 team’s late-season downfall behind us and begin looking ahead at how Seattle can avoid such a collapse in the future.
The organization has promised a “prolific” offseason, so what will that look like? What are some of the biggest priorities the team needs to address?
In this introductory post, we’ll take a first look at some of the major questions facing the Kraken this summer before digging into each of these topics more in the coming months. Let’s dive in.
Audit underway
The Kraken raised eyebrows in the wake of their season when CEO Tod Leiweke mentioned in his “Ron Francis is leaving” presser that Seattle would bring in some sort of third party to conduct an audit of the team’s departments and processes. We learned more details about this process last week, with the team now having hired an organization called Sportsology, a New York-based outfit led by former Chelsea Football Club executive Mike Forde.
I do think this whole thing has gotten blown out of proportion—when Leiweke mentioned this, I don’t believe he expected various media outlets to emphasize it—but since it’s something people have been talking about, it’s good to see progress being made on this front. It does feel like many pieces of business will be put on hold until the audit is completed, so time is of the essence to get this done.
We were told that Sportsology will be looking at all areas of hockey operations, including organizational structure, roster construction, decision-making processes, and a whole host of other areas.
So, some good should come of this and lead to the meaningful change that the team has pledged, but I’m not convinced we’ll hear that much about the outcomes of the audit.
UFA decisions
Speaking of meaningful change, I’m most interested to see what adjustments general manager Jason Botterill can bring to the roster this offseason after a relatively quiet summer in 2025. At face value, there’s still no obvious quick fix to what ails the Kraken.
There are four key players whose contracts are expiring, so Botterill and the rest of the front office will first need to decide which of Bobby McMann, Eeli Tolvanen, Jaden Schwartz, and Jamie Oleksiak they want back next season and beyond… and whether those players want to return.
I would think the team wants to bring back McMann, who burst onto the Kraken scene with 10 goals in 18 games after being acquired at the NHL Trade Deadline from Toronto, and Eeli Tolvanen, who still has youth on his side and has shown the ability to play all roles.
But neither player is a no-doubter to be back in Seattle. McMann played himself into a hot commodity on a free-agent market that does not offer much scoring. He obviously fit well in Seattle and had lots of personal success here, but he also got a front-row seat to an embarrassing end-of-season spiral out of a playoff spot and into the draft lottery. How much will it cost the Kraken to bring him back, if he’s open to returning?
Tolvanen, meanwhile, did not have a good second half of the season and even found himself in healthy scratch territory at times late in the campaign. Still, coach Lane Lambert showed early on that he really liked Tolvanen and was comfortable using him in every situation. If the price is right, I’d bring Tolvanen back.
As for Schwartz and Oleksiak, I do feel it’s right to move on from these players. Both have been strong for the team at times during their respective five-year runs, but the Kraken need to start filtering out some of the Day 1 veterans who have been core to the organization’s very limited success. That’s not blaming these individual players, who are both still effective; it’s simply a desire to get some fresh faces onto the roster.
NHL Draft
It goes without saying that the Kraken will—of course—participate in the NHL Draft on June 26 and 27, where they will select seventh overall thanks to another disappointing bounce in the lottery. They do have a second first-round pick, No. 25 overall, acquired in the trade that sent Oliver Bjorkstrand to the Tampa Bay Lightning last year.
In all, the Kraken have eight picks. Based on their position, it is highly unlikely they will select a player who can help them immediately next season.
Find current talent
With several veterans likely on their way out, the Kraken will have some big holes in their lineup. Remember, a significant chunk of the roster was already occupied by young players this past season, with guys like Berkly Catton, Ryan Winterton, Jacob Melanson, and Oscar Fisker Mølgaard all playing significant roles for various stretches of the season. And let’s not forget that Matty Beniers and Shane Wright could still fall into the “young” category.
So, do they want to replace those departing vets with even more young players coming up from Coachella Valley? There aren’t obvious superstars waiting in the wings, so assuming the Kraken aren’t looking for a full-on tank next season, the answer to that question is almost certainly not.
Players will need to be brought in from outside the organization to improve this lineup, so where will they come from?
As mentioned, the free-agent market is thin. Sure, there could be a fit or two with players like Alex Tuch, who had 33 regular-season goals in Buffalo and had a strong first round of the playoffs but lost his scoring touch in the second round and ended up with four goals and three assists in 12 games. But beyond Tuch—who I’m not even sure will want to leave his hometown team after a magical season—there aren’t many intriguing players set to become available.
I’ve said for several years now that if the Kraken want to take real steps forward, they are going to have to make some big-time trades. That almost surely means moving out young players who are valued by the front office and the fanbase, and perhaps even some veterans with a year left on their deals. Players like Jared McCann and Vince Dunn feel like obvious candidates for trades, considering their contractual situations—both are set to expire after the 2026-27 season—and the fact that they would fetch quality players in return.
Even if Botterill can land a big fish via trade, somebody like Robert Thomas from St. Louis or Jason Robertson from Dallas, it still may not be enough to get this team back into the playoffs. Remember, there are multiple key players leaving the organization, so even if Seattle reels in a top-end offensive player—and that feels like a long shot—one move will not be enough to make this team a contender.
Plus, there will be more holes to fill beyond that one player, and acquiring multiple significant upgrades in one offseason—something this front office has struggled to do—is a huge ask.
The idea of a “prolific” offseason sounds all well and good, but the reality is that landing true upgrades is going to be a massive challenge. Will this front office be willing to part with important current players and/or some of its prospects and draft picks? Will Botterill be able to find trade partners for players whose tenures in their current cities have run their course?
These are the biggest questions facing the Kraken this offseason. Again, we will revisit each of these topics more in depth in future articles, so keep it tuned to Sound Of Hockey all offseason long.
Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Welcome to “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. In this week’s column, we’ll bring you on the ice in Coachella Valley, where Jake O’Brien made his professional debut this week. We’ll also get you up to date on Julius Miettinen’s dominant WHL playoff run, which has the Everett Silvertips on the verge of their first WHL Championship. We’ll also have notes and video from around the Kraken system and the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week, as always.
If you have a Seattle Kraken prospect-related question you’d like to see featured in a future column or mailbag, drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Jake O’Brien enters the Firebirds lineup in Game 1 of the Pacific Division Finals
With a dramatic 3–2 double-overtime win over the Ontario Reign on Saturday, the Coachella Valley Firebirds advanced to the Pacific Division Finals against the Colorado Eagles. This not only brought the Firebirds one step closer to the Calder Cup, but it also extended the team’s postseason by at least three games. That afforded the organization the opportunity to get Jake O’Brien into the lineup for Wednesday’s Game 1 against Colorado.
“It was a whirlwind losing in the [OHL] playoffs and then coming here. Getting in the lineup was pretty exciting,” O’Brien told the media after the game. O’Brien had his mother and stepfather in the stands watching him.
O’Brien skated more than 10 minutes in a fourth-line center role and on the second power-play unit. The Firebirds even threw him out there at the end of the game as the extra attacker with the goalie pulled. Check out all of his shifts in the video below.
Though the game was a disappointing 3–0 loss, the organization has to be pleased that O’Brien got a close look at professional game speed and strength. There were certainly times when he bounced off checks and fell behind the speed of play. But this eliminates some unknowns for O’Brien and lays out clear benchmarks he’ll need to hit in the offseason.
“It was very fast, very physical. It was kind of what I was expecting. I did a lot of video before, getting ready for this game. It was a lot faster than junior was for me,” O’Brien said. “I feel like I got better shift by shift. By Game 2, I’m going to be better.”
Overall, I thought the nerves were evident in his game, particularly early. He looked a bit mechanical and slow to process at first. But he went to the net front with regularity in the offensive zone, took the punishment, and it seemed like this got him into the game a bit. He tried a few skilled passes and controlled entries that you would expect from a talented offensive player. He had one opportunity to get a puck on net, but it sailed on him a bit in a contested situation.
“[O’Brien] is a very cerebral offensive player,” Firebirds coach Derek Laxdal said. “Here’s a kid who is 18 years old getting thrown into his first AHL game, and I thought he showed well. He didn’t shrink in the moment. He did a really good job of hanging onto the puck and making some plays. He’ll be better the next game he plays.”
Julius Miettinen is upping his play in the WHL Playoffs
2024 second-round pick Julius Miettinen leads the WHL Playoffs in total points (27) and points per game (1.59). Most impressively, he has 14 goals, which is the most in the WHL playoffs, two more than teammate Matias Vanhanen and five more than the next closest player.
His postseason run has pushed his combined regular-season and postseason total to 103 points in 69 games. He is one of only eight players to record more than 100 points, and his overall scoring rate (1.49 points per game) is higher than any player with more points than him.
This is a truly remarkable accomplishment for a player who has been thought to project as a support player in the professional ranks—contributing more to wins and losses than the stat sheet. If the development goal for this season was to push his offensive game to the next level, Miettinen checked that box.
What I’ve really liked in the postseason games I’ve been able to catch is the continued growth in his puck-possession ability. Miettinen’s first goal of the series came off a nice possession entry. If Miettinen can add that element to his game consistently, he has the look of a quality NHL power forward.
With four goals and five assists in four games since our last update, Miettinen is your Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the week.
The Everett Silvertips are now one win away from the team’s first-ever WHL Championship. Game 5 of the series is tonight (Friday) in Prince Albert:
Fri, May 15 – Everett at Prince Albert – 6:30 pm PDT – Art Hauser Centre Sun, May 17 – Prince Albert at Everett – 7:00 pm PDT – Angel of the Winds Arena* Mon, May 18 – Prince Albert at Everett – 7:00 pm PDT – Angel of the Winds Arena* *If necessary
Alexis Bernier and the Saguenéens battle in the QMJHL Finals
The Chicoutimi Saguenéens and Moncton Wildcats are tied at two games apiece in the best-of-7 QMJHL Finals. Bernier scored an improbable goal from deep in Leon Draisaitl’s office in Game 2, which the Saguenéens ultimately won by one goal.
Fri, May 15 – Chicoutimi at Moncton – 3:00 pm PDT – Centre Avenir Sun, May 17 – Moncton at Chicoutimi – 4:00 pm PDT – Centre Georges-Vézina Tue, May 19 – Chicoutimi at Moncton – 3:00 pm PDT – Centre Avenir* *If necessary
2026 NHL Draft long lists are starting to roll out
In the last week, Corey Pronman of The Athletic revealed his top 112 NHL Draft prospects list. Earlier in the process, NHL Central Scouting published its final list. Here at Sound Of Hockey we recently published our final data-only watchlist. Check out the full post if you haven’t, but here are 200 first-time eligible prospects to watch as we move toward draft day.
Notes on three other Kraken prospects
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)
Mølgaard leads the AHL playoffs in goals (six) and points (10). Similar to our observation of Miettinen’s game, most believe Mølgaard projects as a low-scoring, two-way presence. The scoring is a great thing to see as Mølgaard attempts to climb the last (and most difficult) rung of the development ladder.
J.R. Avon | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)
Last week’s Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week selection was a bit ahead of its time. J.R. Avon had the dramatic winner in double overtime last Saturday. His five playoff goals are second only to Mølgaard’s in the entire AHL. His finishing skill gives him the added dimension necessary to break through and eventually play NHL games.
— x – Coachella Valley Firebirds (@Firebirds) May 10, 2026
Jani Nyman | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL)
Among players under 23 years old in the AHL playoffs, Jani Nyman is second in total scoring, and Jagger Firkus is tied for third. Nyman’s season was disappointing at the NHL level, but it is important to note that his effort level and production did not sag after his return to the AHL. His 24 total goals across the AHL regular season and postseason rank seventh among all players under 23 years old, and he has played only 48 AHL games this year. The scoring ability is still there.
Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week tracker
4 wins: Julius Miettinen, Jake O’Brien
3 wins: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard
Wyatt Cullen has been a steady riser throughout this draft season. The 6-foot-1 winger was the leading scorer for the U.S. National Team Development Program’s U18 team this season, and he led all players with 1.8 points per game at the 2026 U18 World Championship. Cullen was No. 38 on the midseason Big Board but has ascended since then and is now No. 13 among North American skaters on the final NHL Central Scouting list. He could go as high as the top 10 in June.
Header photo of Julius Miettinen taken byEvan Morud, courtesy of the Everett Silvertips.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Welcome to our annual data-driven analysis of the top prospects in the 2026 NHL Draft. We’re digging deep, giving you a watchlist of 200 first-time eligible and 100 re-entry skaters to follow as the draft approaches.
What is the data-only watchlist?
The watchlist is not a traditional scouting assessment of prospects. Instead, as in years past, we built our watchlist using public, quantifiable data only. Think of it as a supplement to the scouting and analytical work on prospects being published by other sources like Elite Prospects or NHL Central Scouting.
The watchlist can be revealing in its areas of agreement or disagreement with the work of traditional scouting services. But it is not a replacement for the valuable work of scouts. There may be reasons to prefer a prospect listed lower on the watchlist over one listed higher. Indeed, I have formed some of my own subjective preferences. I may have the opportunity to return to some of those assessments as the draft season progresses, but those preferences are not reflected here.
This is a skater-only list for now—though it remains a priority to revisit and develop a satisfactory method to integrate goalies.
The “Data Score” approach
What does our data-only analysis involve? As I have done in years past when looking at NHL Draft prospects (or NHL-affiliated prospects), I have organized this player list by “Data Score”—a rough metric we came up with here at Sound Of Hockey. This season’s approach includes new steps that I believe will be valuable in helping identify top players.
Data Score begins with the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (“NHLe”). NHLe is a method for comparing the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2025-26 season data.
From there, as before, I make adjustments based on factors known to be linked to prospect success rates: (1) position, (2) height, (3) age, and (4) re-draft status. I also make a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues. (This is based on public research by Chace McCallum that was taken down when he started working for an NHL team.)
What’s new this year? In contrast with years past, when I looked at only a one-year sample to create this list, this time I applied this NHLe to multiple years of scoring data for these prospects—specifically the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. More recent play is given more weight. I believe this is an important upgrade to the approach.
I also adjusted the underlying point-rate totals used in the process to give less weight to assists relative to goals. This is based on public research suggesting goal scoring is more predictive of future point production than assist totals, even primary assists.
The full watchlist, which will be made available to Sound Of Hockey Patreon members shortly, covers approximately 12,000 skaters.
The 2026 NHL Draft watchlist
Most notable to me is just how much agreement you can find between scouting assessments and “Data Score.” If I presented the top 32 as a first-round scouting rank, it would raise questions—but perhaps not as many as you might think.
Beyond that, the most notable thing is that Data Score sees two elite players at the top of the 2026 NHL Draft: Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. Despite being older draft-eligible prospects with only adequate height, their scoring production puts them in a different tier.
They arrived at this tier in two different ways, though. Gavin McKenna reached an elite level earlier (2.3 points per CHL game in 2024-25) and essentially maintained his production against elevated NCAA competition (1.4 points per NCAA game in 2025-26). Ivar Stenberg was quite good in the lower junior leagues in 2024-25, but his arrow pointed up in a big way in his draft season when he posted almost 0.8 points per game in the SHL. This is the third-most ever by a draft-eligible SHL prospect and the best single statistical season in the two-year sample I assembled for this project.
There is a bit of a gap after the top two prospects. Players like Porter Martone or Jake O’Brien from the 2025 NHL Draft would have been clear-cut second-tier prospects if they were eligible this season. Instead, defensemen Chase Reid and Carson Carels are the next players on the list. In an average-or-better draft, Reid and Carels may be closer to top-10 prospects than top-five candidates, but both bring strong offensive profiles that project to first-pair NHL futures.
Keep an eye on Nikita Klepov and J.P. Hurlbert as two forwards who could be selected higher than we might think—in the mold of Ben Kindel in the 2025 NHL Draft. As was the case with Kindel, it only takes one team to make a bet on their strong junior scoring profiles.
Wyatt Cullen and Ethan Belchetz are two bigger forwards who could make a push toward the top of the 2026 NHL Draft as well. They bring strong physical traits and “good-enough” data to forge a top-10 consensus in a draft room.
At the other end of the spectrum, if there is one player in the top 10 of the watchlist I’d suspect will linger toward the end of Round 1 (or later), it would be Ryan Roobroeck. Despite being strong overall, his equivalency is actually trending in the wrong direction while scouts question his engagement and consistency.
Evan Jardine is a USHL forward who likely won’t be drafted until the later rounds, but will probably score as a college player next season, and everyone will question how he slipped through the cracks. (In other words, Jardine could be this year’s version of Ethan Wyttenbach, who was No. 11 on last year’s watchlist but lingered until pick No. 144 in the 2025 NHL Draft before going on to post huge scoring numbers in college.)
Undersized, offense-first defensemen top the re-draft pool. Jonas Woo, Tomas Galvas, and Oliwer Sjöström all have strong arguments to be late-round flyers. Everett Silvertip Matias Vanhanen (who is a very young re-draft player) has a strong chance to be one of the first re-entry candidates off the board.
Season trends relative to the preseason list
When comparing with our preseason list, we see significant consistency at the top. 18 of the top 32 players on our final list were also ranked within the top 32 before the season began. Almost all the rest were listed in the second- to third-round range: 31 of the 32 skaters ranked within the top 82 of our preseason list. Only QMJHL blueliner Tommy Bleyl played himself into first-round consideration from a more obscure preseason position.
We did see a few players experience significant falls from our preseason list, however, due to underwhelming draft seasons. Olivers Murnieks is a notable example. He stood at No. 7 on our preseason list but fell to No. 86 among first-eligible skaters on our final list.
Revisiting the 2025 NHL Draft data-only watchlist
How much can you learn about likely draft projection from a player’s placement on the watchlist? As you might expect, it’s not perfect. There are players that scouts “like” (or “dislike”) for reasons other than the quantifiable factors included in Data Score.
That said, it is again remarkable how much you can predict based on public data alone. Looking back at the top 32 first-time eligible prospects on our 2025 data-only watchlist, 23 went in the first round, five more went in the second or third round, and all 32 were drafted.
Other watchlist takeaways and local connections
The run of top prospects playing junior hockey in the Pacific Northwest has not broken yet. No. 33-ranked Mathis Preston played for the Spokane Chiefs and Vancouver Giants this season. No. 52-ranked Chase Harrington played for the Chiefs as well. No. 12-ranked defenseman Ryan Lin played for the Giants, and No. 3-ranked defenseman Carson Carels played for the Prince George Cougars. Everett’s Vanhanen may be the first Puget Sound-area player selected.
Looking at the league landscape, seven of our top-32 first-time eligible prospects played their draft seasons in the OHL, the most of any league. The WHL and USHL were tied for second with six such prospects each. After that, the NCAA had four players, and the QMJHL had three.
* * *
Do you have any questions? Reach out to us in the comments below or on Twitter/X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.
Header photo of J.P. Hurlbert taken byEvan Morud, courtesy of the Everett Silvertips.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Earlier in the season, we compared Seattle Kraken data from the team’s winning streaks and losing streaks. Now that the season is over, I wanted to revisit that analysis and break the season into three buckets.
Opening stretch: Oct. 9, 2025, to Dec. 19, 2025, 12-14-6 record in 32 games
Pre-Olympic break: Dec. 20, 2025, to Feb. 5, 2026, 15-6-3 record in 24 games
Post-Olympic break: Feb. 6, 2026, to April 17, 2026, 7-17-2 record in 26 games
The buckets are not equal in games played, but they are big enough sample sizes to learn about the differences in how the team was performing during those times. Those periods also make sense to use for this analysis, because the Kraken had very different success rates in each stretch.
Opening stretch
The opening stretch featured a team that showed promise, started hot, then went ice cold.
Through the first 23 games of the season, the Kraken were 11-6-6. That put them second in the Pacific Division and 10th overall in the league. That stretch carried them to Thanksgiving, Nov. 27, 2025.
At the time, it looked like new head coach Lane Lambert’s system was working. The Kraken were competing and winning in the first quarter of the season.
Then, after Turkey Day, the season turned. Seattle went 1-8-0 and dropped from 10th in the league to 31st.
Pre-Olympic break
Just when many were counting the Kraken out, they became the hottest team in the Pacific Division before the Olympic break.
Seattle went 15-6-3 and surged back into the playoff conversation. The Kraken had the fourth-best record in the NHL during this stretch.
With a little more than two-thirds of the season complete, it looked like the Kraken had found their way. Outside of the 1-8-0 stretch, Seattle had played 47 games at a .649 points percentage.
The Kraken headed into the break full of confidence and sitting third in the Pacific Division.
Post-Olympic break
After the break, the Kraken could not find a shred of confidence. They free-fell out of the playoff picture.
Seattle went 7-17-2, which ranked 31st in the league during this stretch. The only team worse was the Toronto Maple Leafs, who finished one spot ahead of the Kraken in the NHL Draft Lottery odds and eventually won the first overall pick.
The Kraken finished 27th in the NHL standings and landed the seventh overall pick in the upcoming draft.
Expected vs. actual goals
The Kraken used a system that relied heavily on defensive structure. That came at the cost of offense, but during the pre-break stretch, Seattle found the best balance of the season.
The Kraken scored 3.42 goals per game during that run, their highest mark of the three buckets. They also had their best defensive results, allowing 2.58 goals per game.
During their worst stretch, the post-break run, the Kraken generated their lowest expected goals for at 2.58 per game. Scoring dipped, but the bigger issue came at the other end.
Seattle allowed a season-high 3.69 goals per game after the break. That was significantly higher than its expected goals against of 3.17, suggesting the defensive structure and goaltending both struggled.
One data point stands out. During the pre-break run, Seattle had its highest xGA of the season at 3.22. But the Kraken allowed only 2.58 goals per game, indicating they received elevated goaltending during that stretch.
Team goaltending
The team goaltending numbers aligned closely with Seattle’s win-loss record in each bucket.
During the pre-break stretch, when the Kraken were winning, goaltending hit a season high in both save percentage (.915) and goals saved above expected (15.24).
The opposite was true during the post-break stretch. Seattle’s save percentage dropped to .877, and its goals saved above expected fell to -13.65. Both were season lows.
Scoring first
If you pulled the numbers from the scoring-first chart, they would look almost identical to the team save percentage chart above.
More often than not, teams that score first go on to win the game. The Kraken scored first in 41 games, exactly half of their season, and went 24-13-4 in those games.
Overall, that sounds like a decent record. It also highlights the importance of scoring first. The issue came after the Olympic break. Seattle had a losing record when scoring first, even though it scored first exactly half the time in each bucket.
That shows the Kraken had a hard time protecting leads. It becomes even clearer when looking at games where the Kraken held a two-goal lead at any point.
Seattle won 23 straight games when holding a two-goal lead to start the season. But in the final 20 games, the Kraken held a two-goal lead seven times and went just 4-2-1. One of those wins came in overtime.
Percentage of time leading
Game strategy can change depending on whether a team is leading, tied, or trailing.
With Seattle’s defensive strategy, the Kraken often seemed comfortable playing with the game tied. But after the break, there was a dramatic uptick in the amount of time spent trailing.
That forced Seattle to chase offense. When teams chase offense, defensive breakdowns tend to follow, which helps explain why Seattle’s goals against jumped after the break.
Shots
Looking at shot volume, it is interesting that the Kraken were at their best when taking fewer shots.
During the pre-break stretch, when Seattle won the most games, the Kraken averaged only 24.9 shots on goal and 50.1 shot attempts per game. They also allowed their most shots against during this span, which again points to how important goaltending was during that run.
Here is a breakdown of expected goals from shots from the low-, medium-, and high-danger areas.
Overall, the Kraken had a lower offensive xG than their opponents in each bucket. It is hard to win consistently over a full season when the opponent generates more expected offense.
Special teams
Finally, let’s look at special teams.
The penalty kill finished 31st in the NHL. Technically, it could have been worse, but not by much. There is far more room to improve in the positive direction next season.
John Barr created a 10-game moving average of the penalty kill that can be viewed here.
The power play finished 21st in the NHL, solidly in the bottom half of the league.
The biggest takeaway is that Seattle’s power-play xG per 60 dropped to its lowest total during the third of the three buckets at 5.44. To rub salt in the wound, the Kraken scored only 2.99 goals per 60.
Watching the games live, it seemed like the Kraken started taking more shots from the point after the Olympic break. Here is a heatmap of the power-play shots in each bucket.
At first glance, the intent looks similar in each bucket. The Kraken wanted to get the puck to the net front, where most of their shots came from. They also generated shots from the wings near both face-off dots.
I added an orange line to the heatmap, 10 feet from the blue line, and counted the number of shots from that area in each bucket.
There are two takeaways:
The percentage of point shots increased to 12 percent. Those are typically low-percentage shots and are easier for goaltenders to control.
In the opening stretch and pre-break buckets, the point shots were more tightly grouped. In the post-break bucket, they spanned a larger portion of the blue line.
That could indicate a change in strategy, with the Kraken shooting from everywhere to get pucks to the front of the net. But it also felt like they were rushing shots.
For comparison, Kraken opponents took only 4.8 percent of their power-play shots from the point against Seattle’s penalty kill. It should be noted that the special teams data only looks at 5-on-4 power-play situations and 4-on-5 penalty-kill situations.
Hot and cold
The Kraken had a hot-and-cold season where goaltending, defense, and offense all had to align for a full 60 minutes to earn a win.
The team had sustained stretches where that formula worked. But the lows also showed Seattle does not have enough offensive firepower to consistently compete when it falls behind.
The finish to the season is not all bad. The Kraken are set to get their fifth top-10 pick in the NHL Draft on June 26.
Meanwhile, although the Kraken are done for the season, the Coachella Valley Firebirds continue to amaze. They are advancing to the AHL Pacific Division Finals against the Colorado Eagles, giving Seattle’s prospect pool more valuable playoff experience.
All data was sourced from MoneyPuck.com and the NHL play-by-play data.
Feel free to leave a comment below and continue the conversation.
Blaiz Grubic
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
