Things got rolling downhill early for the Kraken against the Rangers on Friday. Seattle mounted a comeback, but by that time, it had dug too big of a hole for itself to overcome. The opening of the Vladimir Tarasenko Show on Broadway got its storybook ending and rave reviews from the Ranger faithful.
“It’s tough to come back in a game when you’re down 3-0 in the first,” said Jordan Eberle. “Obviously we were slow. We gave them everything they had as far as turnovers, and they’re a fast team. They’re gonna counter.”
The loss dropped the Kraken to 0-3-0 on the road trip, and suddenly the standings picture isn’t quite as rosy for Seattle as it was coming out of the All-Star break. Now, the Oilers, Kraken, and Kings are all level at 63 points, while the Golden Knights have built a three-point lead on the rest of the Pacific Division. It’s high time for the Kraken to start banking points again, and they didn’t help themselves on Friday.
Here are our Three Takeaways from a third straight Kraken loss, this one a 6-3 defeat by the Rangers.
Takeaway #1: The narrative was the narrative
Sometimes the story writes itself, in a way. There was no doubt coming into this game at Madison Square Garden that Tarasenko—playing his first game since being acquired in a blockbuster trade this week—would be that story. The atmosphere and the pageantry were omnipresent for No. 91’s first game in Rangers blue, and he didn’t disappoint the home crowd.
After getting a thundering ovation pre-game, Tarasenko wasted little time solidifying his place as another of the many stars in the Rangers lineup.
Ryan Donato tried to make a cross-ice pass in the neutral zone to Vince Dunn, but he partially whiffed and laid it out nicely for Artemi Panarin to skate into it with speed. Off the rush, Panarin found Tarasenko at the goalmouth, and the newcomer slipped it through the wickets on Martin Jones, nearly blowing the roof off the “World’s Most Famous Arena,” just 2:49 into his Ranger tenure.
Vladimir Tarasenko (@tara9191) sure knows how to make a great first impression! 🚨
“It’s not just [the Tarasenko goal],” said Eberle. “It’s the next one and the next one after that, too. I think, obviously, you know the circumstances of what’s going on, but you you’re not really looking at that stuff.”
The Kraken players would never admit this, but they almost seemed overwhelmed by the atmosphere in the opening period. The Rangers were feeding off the crowd and the situation of adding a star player, and Seattle just had no answer to slow them down.
Tarasenko was the star of his own show.
Takeaway #2: Tough start for Martin Jones got better as game went on
Ever since Philipp Grubauer got injured in Colorado on Oct. 21 and missed more than a month, coach Dave Hakstol has been leaning heavily on Martin Jones. He’s done so rightfully, as Jones has been central to Seattle’s success and has racked up an impressive record.
Jones’s latest start was a tough one, though. He gave up three goals on 12 shots in the opening frame, including one by Vincent Trocheck that snuck through, laid on the goal line, and ultimately got pushed in by Jones’s glove.
Another went in early in the second with New York on the power play. The puck caromed to the corner, and Jacob Trouba banked it in off Will Borgen. All the while, Jones didn’t know where the puck was and was down looking for it on the other side of the crease.
Trouba banks it in off Borgen from the corner. Jones had no idea where the puck was. PPG.
It wasn’t just the goals, though. Jones wasn’t tracking the puck well on this night, and you could tell because shots he normally gobbles up for whistles were hitting off his stomach and popping out into dangerous areas. We also counted at least three plays where he looked like he was about to clamp his catch glove down to halt the play, only to mishandle the puck and have it squirt out of his reach.
“I’m not going to nitpick the goals that went in,” said Hakstol. “The fourth goal is a bounce off our defenseman on a deflected rebound shot. The fifth one, it comes through the crease, but in all honesty, I’ve looked at it a couple of times, and that’s a play that normally he takes care of in the blue paint.”
Hakstol added a Kraken skate took Jones’s stick away from being able to deflect the pass that led to Mika Zibanejad’s power-play goal to make it 5-1 early in the third. The coach also said he did not consider changing to Grubauer in this game, even as it got away from Seattle in the early going.
Adding minor injury to insult, Jones made a nice save on Filip Chytil on a two-on-one rush late in the second period. As he was down on the ice, Alex Wennberg’s knee slammed into Jones’s head, jerking it back awkwardly. Jones stayed down for a moment and got checked by the training staff, but stayed in the game.
To the credit of both Hakstol (for the decision) and Jones (for his resiliency), the Kraken netminder did seem to settle down after the fourth goal by Trouba. He looked more like himself as the second period went on and made several big saves as Seattle had started to push back.
With Jones not playing his best lately, and Grubauer looking sharp in his recent outings, it does feel like it’s time to start giving Grubauer the lion’s share of starts again. Let’s see if that shift starts to happen on the rest of this trip.
Takeaway #3: Kraken made a game of it
We hate to make comparisons between this season’s Kraken and last season’s Kraken, but Friday’s game had inaugural-season vibes in a lot of ways. Seattle fell behind early, then fell farther behind and looked like it had no chance to get anywhere close. But as was so often the case last year, the Kraken did push back and gain confidence and momentum as the game went along.
After Oliver Bjorkstrand scored on a breakaway in the second period, Seattle had the better of the play for the rest of the night, despite the Rangers adding a second power-play goal to make it 5-1 at one point.
The Kraken responded to that fifth goal with a power-play goal of their own, as Jared McCann sniped his 24th goal of the season from above the left circle, an area from which he seems to love shooting.
Then, just 22 seconds later, Brandon Tanev found himself on a breakaway after Donato made a nice pass to spring him at the blue line. Tanev raced in, opened up Shesterkin, and slipped it through his pads. That made it 5-3, and suddenly it seemed like the Kraken might be stealing the story away from Tarasenko.
The rally was too little, too late, though, and the Rangers skated off with a mostly easy victory. Still, it was an encouraging sign that Seattle didn’t quit in this one, as they never do. They battled to the end and gave themselves some positives on which to build for the rest of the trip.
The Kraken will look to stop the bleeding in Philadelphia on Super Bowl Sunday, then close out the trip in Winnipeg on Tuesday.
The Seattle Thunderbirds were locked in a 5-5 tie this past Friday at the accesso ShoWare Center with the Everett Silvertips and headed into overtime. Winnipeg Jets prospect Brad Lambert, who had recently joined the team, did not start the overtime period but finished it with a flurry. He hopped over the boards a minute into the period and took a pass at his own blue line from defenseman Kevin Korchinski. Lambert then turned on the jets and raced up ice, seemingly mesmerizing the Everett defenders. He blew past the last defender and took a quick shot that found the net and won the game.
“There’s fast and then there’s Lambert fast,” Thunderbirds head coach Matt O’Dette said at practice the day before.
Lambert, who turned 19 in December, has been one of the more intriguing NHL prospects for a couple of years and his journey to Seattle was circuitous. Born in Finland to a Canadian father and Finnish mother, Lambert had the spotlight thrust on him when he was 16, playing for Finland in the World Junior Championship. He was impressive enough that pundits and scouts started wondering if he would be the first overall pick in 2023.
“You’re doing good if they’re talking about you,” he said. “But I thought I could do a pretty good job about blocking that stuff out. Obviously, the expectations are high. You can go and have a good game, that’s just not good enough for the expectations that there were.”
Low numbers in Liga for Lambert
His numbers in Liga were low and draft prognosticators started to worry. Was he really a top prospect? Split between JVP and the Pelicans in Finland he only had four goals and 10 points in 49 games. Reading scouting reports, it was clear the speed and skill were still there but the numbers weren’t showing.
It turns out that playing in a tough pro league with adults meant getting playing time was hard to come by and the league is one where defense comes first, making points hard to pile up.
Brad Lambert was a first-round pick of the Winnipeg Jets -Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire)
“They play very tight defense and most teams use the trap so you have five guys to beat,” Lambert said. “But in its own way, it was a really good experience for me, just learning how to play in my own end and defensive responsibility. You want to go to the next level and get coaches to trust you, you have to be good on both sides of the puck and that’s something that I thought I worked on a lot there and obviously still have to work on. But I’ve improved during the last two years.”
Lambert didn’t go first overall, rather slipped to 30th when the Jets selected him, but it was still a big day for Lambert and his family.
“[Draft day is] a big day,” he said. “If someone told me when I was five, six years old that I would be a first-round draft pick, I think I would have took it, and to be honest with you, it doesn’t matter where you go, first or 210, it’s a big day… I got a buddy playing right now in Nashville and doing great, Juuso Parssinen. He was drafted like 210. It’s not about the numbers, it’s about what you do after that.”
Just before the draft, Thunderbirds general manager Bil La Forge swung a deal with the Saskatoon Blades who held Lambert’s rights in the Western Hockey League. He was gambling that the Jets would eventually send him to junior for more opportunities to play and further develop his skills.
The hope was that Lambert would be sent to Seattle during training camp, but Lambert played well at rookie tournaments in the summer and had a strong fall training camp. He signed his entry-level contract and was given a shot in the American Hockey League with the Manitoba Moose.
With Manitoba, he appeared in 14 games, scored twice with an assist, and once again struggled for consistent playing time with and against older professionals.
Winnipeg then loaned Lambert to Finland for this winter’s World Junior Championship. It wasn’t the best outing for Finland and was ‘disappointing’ according to Lambert with Finland failing to medal. It was at that time that the Jets decided rather than have Lambert ride the pine in the AHL, they would send him somewhere where he would get playing time.
Lambert heads to Seattle
That somewhere was Seattle and the Thunderbirds.
“At the time I was looking forward to going back to Manitoba and so I was a little disappointed,” Lambert said. “Now that I’ve got here, I’ve got to know the guys and it’s a great group of guys, and happy to be here. I think it’s an opportunity for me to show what I can do here. Obviously having never played Canadian junior it’s a new experience for me and a good opportunity to show what I can do.
“It’s still good hockey and there’s some really, really skilled guys in this league and on our team. It’s been good, and it’s a good opportunity for me to work on my own skills and at the same time, our team goal is to win, win as many games as we can and obviously win the big one at the end. That’s what we’re aiming for.”
So far, it’s been a win-win for both parties.
The overtime winner against Everett was Lambert’s second of the night to go with an assist. In his first six games with Seattle, he has four goals and three assists and is getting the ice time he couldn’t get in Finland or the AHL.
“Just does everything at a high pace even when he’s on the power play running in his end zone,” O’Dette said. “Everything is done quickly. It’s done with pace and you can never have enough guys like that that can push the pace and put the defense on their heels.”
Lambert’s confidence is high
When he was sent back it was assumed by many that it would be a chance for him to regain the confidence lost by playing in a defense-first league in Finland.
Was his confidence shaken?
“My confidence has never been better, anywhere,” Lamberts said with a chuckle. “It’s all about the opportunity, whenever I’ve got the opportunity to play with top-six guys, play power-play minutes, I think I’ve produced, and I know I can at the American League level as well. You have to be put out there, you have to be put in a position to succeed. It looks like you’re confident because you’re doing things because you’re getting out there all the time.”
Lambert joins a stacked team that has five NHL first-rounders on it, with the addition of Arizona’s Dylan Guenther earlier in the week.
During Friday’s overtime win, Korchinski, who was Chicago’s seventh overall pick during the 2022 NHL Draft had three assists, to go with a goal. He had the primary assist on both of Lambert’s goals. Could that chemistry be due to them once being teammates in Saskatoon where Lambert spent a couple of years as a youth?
“We were kids,” Lambert said with a grin. “In peewee, we played for the Kodiaks which is actually funny. We were talking about it, they wore the same colors as Seattle, and he was number 14 and I was number 11. We won the city-wide championship and now we’re going for another one so it’s pretty cool. I never thought after that I’d run into a spot on the same team as him in hockey again.”
Lambert, Korchinski, and the rest of the loaded Thunderbirds will next be in action Friday night against the Red Deer Rebels and former coach Steve Konowalchuk.
It was a better effort than their previous game, but it bore the same result, as the Kraken fell 3-1 to the New Jersey Devils Thursday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
Thursday was a frustrating night for Kraken fans. Seattle had the better of the play for long stretches of the game but couldn’t get enough pucks past a razor-sharp Mackenzie Blackwood. Meanwhile, the Kraken’s special teams stumbled at both ends of the ice, and in the end, they skated away with their second loss in as many tries on this road trip.
“The ultimate difference at the end of the day is they found two on their power play,” said coach Dave Hakstol. “That makes the difference in the hockey game.”
Here are our Three Takeaways from a disappointing Kraken loss to the Devils.
Takeaway #1: Better structure in all three zones
Seattle looked like themselves Thursday after an uncharacteristically bad showing on Long Island Tuesday. That night, the Kraken couldn’t connect on passes, they couldn’t get over the Islanders line with possession, and they certainly couldn’t sustain pressure for any extended period.
“We were not happy with the game in Long Island,” said Adam Larsson, who scored the only Kraken goal against the Devils. “I thought today we responded pretty good; good enough to win. Sometimes you fall short.”
On Thursday, the Kraken came out with a lot of jump in the opening frame and largely dominated the play. They were held off the board by Blackwood, though, who was especially stellar in that first period. By the time the first horn sounded, Blackwood already had 12 saves.
A good example of Seattle’s jump and Blackwood’s early larceny came in the first two minutes. Vince Dunn fired a pass about 100 feet ahead to Ryan Donato at the far blue line. Donato raced in with Jaden Schwartz on a two-on-one rush and passed across the goalmouth. Schwartz looked like he had a sure goal, but Blackwood sprawled left to right and denied Schwartz with his right pad. The save set the tone for how the evening would go.
“We got off to a good start, and it was a tight game all the way through,” said Hakstol. “As we got to the third period, [I thought] it was going to be a little tighter checking, and it was.”
Tight-checking games are usually a sign of two teams playing well within their systems, something Seattle certainly didn’t do against the Islanders. So, that’s a positive step toward getting back on track, but it certainly would have been nice for the Kraken to at least take a point from this one.
Takeaway #2: Special teams were the difference
As Hakstol said, the difference in this game was special teams, which has been a problem for Seattle at times this season. The penalty kill had been on a heater and hadn’t allowed a goal in eight games, with 18 opportunities for Seattle’s opponents over that stretch. But that streak was snapped in resounding fashion Thursday, as Dougie Hamilton fired two rockets from the top of the slot that each found their way behind Philipp Grubauer.
The first goal against came just 24 seconds after Larsson’s goal and moments after Matty Beniers had won a defensive-zone face-off. But Jamie Oleksiak lost the race to the puck, it spun around the zone to Hamilton, and suddenly it was in the back of the net.
The second one hit off Brandon Tanev, who was trying to block the shot. The puck changed directions and re-directed perfectly into the top left corner of the net, giving Grubauer no chance to stop it.
“The first one, it’s off a won face-off,” said Hakstol. “We missed an assignment there. That’s one where we have a couple of opportunities on a shot block. And the second one was unfortunate. It goes off of Tanev’s left or right leg as he’s going down to try to get in the shot lane and finds the top corner. So, that’s a tough one.”
Meanwhile, at the other end of the ice, Seattle had three opportunities on the power play, including a five-on-three advantage in the second period, but it could not convert.
“I feel like we played a good game,” said Alex Wennberg. “There’s a lot of great things from it, and it comes down to special teams. We have an opportunity to score there, we don’t, and they score two of them.”
Takeaway #3: Kraken scoring has dried up
After getting shutout by Ilya Sorokin on Long Island Tuesday, the Kraken finally broke through with Larsson’s seeing-eye shot at 14:05 of the second period. The goal gave Seattle its only lead of the road trip so far, but it was short lived, as Hamilton got the quick response at the other end. That Larsson goal ended up being the lone Kraken goal of the night, meaning Seattle has scored just once in six periods of hockey.
Part of the problem Thursday was the play of Blackwood, who seems to enjoy facing the Kraken. He was good in a 4-3 overtime loss on Jan. 19 in Seattle, and he was outstanding Thursday with 33 saves.
Aside from the game-opening save on Schwartz, the Kraken had a Grade-A chance to tie the game moments after Hamilton gave the Devils a 2-1 lead midway through the third period. From behind the goal line, Beniers found Jared McCann wide open in front of the net. Blackwood sprawled out and robbed McCann, holding the score at 2-1.
“Right after the PK goal against, the 2-1 goal to put us down, we come right back down and have the opportunity that we would want with McCann the slot,” said Hakstol. “It doesn’t go in the net. So, those are pucks that we need to go in, but the opportunity was there.”
The other part of the problem was simply a lack of finish by the Kraken. Just prior to Seattle’s five-on-three opportunity, the puck pinballed around in front of Blackwood and landed on Oliver Bjorkstrand’s stick. He had Blackwood dead to rights but fired it off the crossbar.
It was one of those nights.
One of the strengths of the Kraken this season has been the offensive production they have gotten from all areas of their lineup. These two games since the break, though, everyone has gone cold at once.
“We had some good opportunities, so I don’t want to get too frustrated over that,” said Hakstol. “We’ve got to continue generating those opportunities and look to finish them.”
Here’s hoping Seattle can start finding ways to put the puck in the net Friday against the Rangers.
The Seattle Kraken returned to play after a nine-day layoff this week, but started with a stinker of a game against the Islanders. In that game, Andre Burakovsky got injured in the first minute and has since been placed on injured reserve. John, Andy, and Darren break down what that means for the team and recap a tough game on Long Island.
After that, they move on to general Kraken talk, including reaction to the Jaycob Megna trade and the introduction of the Kraken youth AAA program.
Next, Andy gives a W- er, CHL Update before the guys shift to Part II of the Mailbag questions that got asked last week.
Finally, the show moves to segments, which this week include Weekly One-Timers, Goalie Gear Corner, Tweets of the Week, and Three Stars.
There are no bad days as far as Seattle Kraken prospect Ty Nelson is concerned.
Sure, some are better than others. But Nelson, currently a defender for the OHL’s North Bay Battalion, is so upbeat and positive that North Bay general manager Adam Dennis queried to his defense coach about three quarters through his first season in North Bay: “Does Ty ever get upset or down?”
The answer was a definite, “No.”
“He’s always having a good day,” Dennis said. “Not everybody’s like that. Some guys have bad days, and I’m sure Ty does as well, but he just wears it a lot better than the rest of us. When you have that constant positive person around, it’s infectious. You can’t help but have it rub off on you if you’re one of his teammates, and we’re lucky to have him in our dressing room.”
Nelson has plenty to smile about in North Bay, this season in particular. A third-round draft pick by the Kraken in 2022, the defenseman boasts 19 goals, which leads all defensemen in the OHL, and 60 points, second behind Ducks prospect Pavel Mintyukov amongst OHL defensemen. Nelson also tallied his first career hat trick on Sunday in North Bay’s 9-1 shellacking of Kingston.
“It was nice to obviously just see the puck going in the back of the net on the power play (on Sunday),” Nelson said. “I mean, our power play has been struggling a little bit. So it was nice to see that it was clicking last night. I was just getting the perfect passes from guys, which allowed me to get the one-timer off.”
Nelson was decent offensively, but not outstanding in his draft year last season with nine goals and 41 assists, perhaps why the smaller Nelson—he’s listed at 5-foot-10—wasn’t a first-round pick. He’s on pace to obliterate those yearly marks this season.
The secret? Nelson is shooting. A lot.
With 234 shots on goal, the 18-year-old blueliner not only leads all defensemen but all players in the OHL.
That trigger-happy mindset was born during the playoffs last season, with the Battalion’s coaching staff nudging Nelson to shoot more.
“I just kind of took that feedback and ran with it,” Nelson said. “(I just worked) on my shot every day after practice, trying to build it to be more effective.”
The Battalion is deploying Nelson’s heavy shot more frequently, too.
Nelson is playing a new role on North Bay’s power play this season, moving from the top near the blue line to the left flank. His main goal: teeing up one-timers like Alexander Ovechkin.
“In the pre-game meetings, our coach will be like, ‘Listen, you’re Ovi tonight. You just sit there and hammer one-timers,” Nelson said.
While Nelson is regarded for his ability to activate and drive offense, he’s drawn praise from pundits and his coaching staff for his defensive play, despite being on the smaller side — although it does help that he’s listed at nearly 200 pounds.
“I think his mobility and, believe it or not, his physicality [make him a good defenseman],” Dennis said. “Even though maybe not the tallest guy, Ty is a really strong kid. I’ve always said, ‘Well, would you rather get hit with a door or a bowling ball?’ Ty would definitely be the bowling ball, and Ty comes fast and he comes hard and he certainly doesn’t get pushed around. He does the pushing around in front of the net.”
The Battalion, which feature two Kraken prospects in Nelson and forward Kyle Jackson, are currently second in the OHL’s Eastern Conference and primed for another deep playoff run. Last year, North Bay was swept in the Conference Finals by eventual Memorial Cup Champion Hamilton.
A deep playoff run would mean a lot to Nelson.
“It’s something we’ve been building for a long time here,” he said. “It’s been brewing here for about four years, with all the drafts and the trades that we’ve been making. You know, North Bay is such a hockey town; it’d be unbelievable to bring it back here. For all the dedication and hard work that the guys, the coaches, and the whole organization staff is putting in, it’s something I think that we can really strive for and honestly deserve.”
It’s been quite the journey to North Bay for Nelson. The native of a rougher part of Toronto, Ontario, Nelson didn’t grow up in an overly affluent family and wasn’t blessed with the same opportunities as some of his peers.
But it didn’t stop him from making it to the OHL. In fact, Nelson was a highly regarded prospect, going No. 1 overall in the OHL draft in 2020. He drew interest from some NCAA programs, but as Nelson says, “You can’t turn it down when you’re picked first.”
“There are still some days where I’m like, ‘Wow, you did that,’” Nelson said of being picked first.
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Practice Notebook: Darren Brown chats with Dave Hakstol as the team returns from its break. Notes that the Kraken are getting healthier.
That momentum was stalled by the COVID-19 pandemic, which canceled the 2020-21 season and Nelson’s first in the OHL.
“I was so fired up, ready to go, and then just it doesn’t happen,” Nelson said. “But you can’t feel sorry for yourself. Everyone in the world was going through it, and I just looked at it as an extended offseason.”
That aforementioned positivity is something Nelson brought with him immediately to the Battalion, asking a local food bank if he could help out in anyway, even though he was sheltering in place at his home in Toronto.
Another anecdote that stood out to Dennis: When North Bay traded away forward Nicholas Sima to the Saginaw Spirit, Nelson spent the entire day consoling and spending time with the young girls that lived at Sima and Nelson’s billet house.
“Nobody asked him to do this; it’s just one of things that Ty does,” Dennis said. “He was raised the right way and I give his parents all the credit in the world. He’s a first-class kid, and he leads in hockey and he leads off the ice on how you should be as a person, too.”
Dennis believes the best is yet to come for Nelson.
“The sky’s the limit for him. He’s gonna put the work in. He’s gonna find ways to get better. If he can’t do something now or if he’s not good at it, he’s gonna get better at it. And you know what? When you walk the walk like Ty does you’re gonna have opportunities for success regularly and we’re thrilled that we could be a small part in it.”
Oh, and before we go: That fedora he famously wore at the 2022 NHL Draft, which was a gift from one of his billets, is still in his closet. He wore it on the first gameday of the season and is saving it for the playoffs and the Memorial Cup, if North Bay makes it that far.
Kraken first-round pick and top prospect Shane Wright has missed six of the last seven games with a lower-body injury. Presumably picked up in a Jan. 22 contest against North Bay, Wright missed the next three games before returning with a goal and an assist against Sault Ste. Marie on Feb. 2.
However, Wright also missed the next three games due to a lower-body injury.
The injury woes slowed down a hot stretch for Wright, who has 11 points in his last five games.
Firebirds at AHL All-Star Classic; two players assigned to ECHL
Two Firebirds, Ryker Evans and Max McCormick, represented the Pacific Division at the American Hockey League All-Star Classic, which won the whole thing.
The Firebirds will resume action on Friday against San Diego. While Coachella Valley’s six-game win streak and 14-game point steak ended on Jan. 28, the Firebirds are leaving the All-Star break red hot, having won 17 of their last 20 games.
Meanwhile, the Firebirds assigned forward Jeremy McKenna and defenseman Jake McLaughlin to the ECHL’s Kansas City Mavericks.
General musings on Kraken prospect pool
Yesterday, I stumbled upon Scott Wheeler’s prospect pool rankings at The Athletic, and noticed the Kraken were at No. 15, way up from dead last, No. 32, the year before.
These prospect rankings don’t mean a whole lot to Seattle since it only has two drafts under its belt. But general manager Ron Francis and the scouting staff’s ability to impress pundits with limited opportunities to build prospect depth stood out to me. In just two years, there are plenty of really intriguing prospects in the system, and that’s even if you don’t include Matty Beniers. If you’re an Athletic subscriber, we recommend reading.
Josh Horton
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and erstwhile Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
Earlier this week I looked at Seattle Kraken GM Ron Francis’s history at the NHL Trade Deadline and what it can tell us about the likely approach of the Kraken front office this year. In this second installment of the trade deadline series, I’m going to take a look at the areas of the Kraken roster that could be addressed through a trade, and then set out the cap space and trade assets the Kraken have to get a deal done. Let’s dive right in.
What areas could the Kraken address via trade?
Good morning. Only two more days until the #SeaKraken play again. In the meantime, here is a chart of the number of different 10-goal scorers by team. pic.twitter.com/oOmNvruFl9
So far, Seattle has succeeded on the strength of: (1) an improved top-six forward group that is closer to league average when compared with last year’s low-producing group, (2) a dominant bottom-six forward group that is scoring in droves at even strength, and (3) stable work on the blue line and in goal that has produced at or around league average and avoided the untimely gaffs that so often cost the team last year.
To be clear, the team will not (and almost certainly cannot) address each of these areas. And one acquisition could address more than one of these needs. For example, defenseman Jaycob Megna arguably addresses both the need for a depth defenseman–he is a first-time lineup regular this year on a league-minimum contract–and a shutdown penalty killer who led the San Jose Sharks in relative xGF% during his time with the Sharks.
To further illustrate: a hypothetical acquisition of a player like Arizona defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere could address three needs at once–for a power play playmaker, depth defenseman, and offensive-minded defenseman.
I would expect that if the Kraken make additional trades before this year’s March 3 trade deadline, it will be because the deal checks more than one of these boxes. So, let’s dig on these areas of need a little bit before turning to the assets available to the Kraken to get a deal done.
Depth left-shot defenseman
Prior to the Jaycob Megna trade, the Kraken lacked depth on the blue line, particularly on the left side. The issue has been the most acute when injuries have cropped up. With Justin Schultz out in recent weeks, the team turned to Cale Fleury to fill in. To his credit, Fleury has held his own, but he is not going to contribute much on the offensive end (he has just two points in 61 career NHL games) even if he keeps his head above water in his own zone.
Beyond Fleury, the Kraken have Gustav Olofsson in Coachella Valley, but he is currently injured and without a timeline to return. In any event, Olofsson is clearly behind Fleury in the organizational depth chart.
The Kraken also have prospect Ryker Evans, but, having watched him semi-regularly with the Firebirds, my sense is that he needs more time to develop because he is not yet ready to contribute in the defensive zone. Thrusting him into a stretch run or playoff role when he is not ready could be detrimental to his development.
Ryker Evans takes a shot for the Coachella Vallery Firebirds. (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Even with Justin Schultz returning from injury, and assuming the blue line remains healthy through the end of the year, there was still a need for depth.
One theory about the success of Seattle’s fourth forward line attributes it to the lineup pressure being placed by those on the periphery: The healthy scratch forward is a very good player, and if an active forward lets up, he could find himself on the bench. On the defensive side, Cale Fleury has not been a real threat to replace any of the top-six defensemen even when undisciplined play from those in the lineup has cost the team. Seattle’s overall defensive production may benefit from a bit more upward pressure from the bottom of the roster.
Newcomer Jaycob Megna provides some of that urgency. He ate minutes for the San Jose Sharks this year playing next to Erik Karlsson and generally does a good job of suppressing scoring. In his last game with the Sharks, ten total goals were scored. Megna played more than 22 minutes–more than a third of the game–and he was on the ice for only one goal, a score by the Sharks. This was not atypical for him. He can reliably steer the game towards mucking and grinding, which is a good insurance policy to have. (He was less successful in his first outing with the Kraken on Tuesday, registering a -2 in 18:15 of ice time.)
So, the Kraken have already made a trade that addresses the No. 1 need I had diagnosed. But I do not think the Megna acquisition will prevent any other type of opportunity that comes along. Given the marginal value of the acquisition cost–an (extra) fourth-round draft pick–all options remain on the table to upgrade other areas of the blue line. Megna gives them a workable number of total options, but if there are upgrades to be had, I believe the Kraken will still look at them.
Offensive defenseman
That brings us to another area where Seattle’s blue line could stand to improve: offensive playmaking from the back end. Seattle defensemen have activated closer to the net more this year than last year, but, even so, the group does not have any true standout performers in terms of goals and primary assists per 60 minutes.
Visualization by DeepSeaHockey; data from MoneyPuck
Looking at expected goals created–which credits defensemen not only for their own shot quality but also for their shots that create high-danger rebounds–Seattle doesn’t have any performer that breaks out from the pack.
Visualization by DeepSeaHockey; data from MoneyPuck
Several available defensemen on the market, including Arizona defensemen Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun, stand out in these metrics.
It may be counterintuitive, but in my opinion, the acquisition of Megna actually makes it more workable for the Kraken to make another defenseman trade if they want: The team now has the flexibility to trade from their existing blue line group to obtain assets that could be flipped for a more offense-oriented player. This remains a potential area for upgrade.
Power play playmaker
The power play (20.1 percent conversion percentage, 21st in the league) has struggled for long stretches since a scorching hot start driven by a high shooting percentage. The team’s shot chart shows the team’s struggles generating chances in the slot. Their sets are static and lacking in playmaking instinct. A player who could breakdown the defense with his skating or passing could shake things up and unlock the team’s ample shooting talent on the man advantage.
Shutdown penalty killer
The penalty kill (72.5 percent success rate, 31st in the league) has also struggled for long stretches of the season. The unit has stabilized a bit since switching to a box-oriented scheme. Indeed, as John Barr has pointed out, the team has been reasonably effective over the last few weeks. Still, the overall numbers suggest this could be the team’s Achilles heel, particularly if it ends up locked in a playoff series with a team like Edmonton.
Face-offs
Another statistic that has not been kind to Seattle is its face-off win percentage. As a team, Seattle secures just 45.5 percent of its face-offs, which is 31st in the league.
The team’s inability to reliably control draws, particularly from its top lines, has hindered the offense in creating chances, particularly on the power play. How often is the team chasing the puck down the ice to begin the man advantage? And when Morgan Geekie (who sports a team-best 48.7 percent face-off win percentage) is not on the ice, face-offs tend to be an issue in defensive scenarios too, including on the penalty kill.
Ideally, the Kraken would have a top-of-the-lineup forward who could be counted on to win tough draws and succeed in the flow of gameplay after those draws. Seattle doesn’t have that player right now. In the end, that might just be the reality for this team this season since the cost of acquiring a top-six center who is strong on the face-off dot, like Ryan O’Reilly for example, may be prohibitive.
Physical forward
Secrets to Seattle's success: How stable goaltending, the emergence of Vince Dunn and the league's deepest forward group have been the keys to a remarkable turnaround for the Kraken.https://t.co/ZJycRdL7Cspic.twitter.com/4NJ7IofZHA
I have heard it argued that the Kraken could also stand to add a bit of size to their forward lines. While it is not particularly high on my personal list of priorities, I can see the case for it. Brandon Tanev is a physical player. So is Yanni Gourde, but he is more of an agitator than an intimidator. One more piece who could help turn the tide if Seattle is getting checked into submission down the stretch or in the playoffs could be useful.
On the other hand, John Hayden could serve this purpose just as well as most who would be available at the deadline without a hefty price tag. Accordingly, I put this need, if it is one at all, a bit lower than others might. If the physical play comes in a package with face-off or goal-scoring ability, I’d get more interested.
Goal scoring, net-front forward
In theory, the Kraken lineup could use a top-of-the-lineup forward who drives scoring with high-danger scoring opportunities. Seattle’s depth forwards have clearly outproduced their counterparts, but the same cannot be said at the top of the lineup.
Seattle’s team leader in goals scored is Jared McCann with 23. The next closest player checks in with 17. McCann is having a phenomenal goal scoring year, but his success has largely been driven by his ability convert relatively low-probability outside shots. He is certainly skilled at shooting, but he is performing at a pace that far exceeds anything that can be expected to continue. Indeed, he trails only Bo Horvat in goals scored above his shooting talent.
Visualization by DeepSeaHockey; data from MoneyPuck
Seattle doesn’t have a single player in the top 100 in individual expected goals as measured by Evolving Hockey. (The highest ranked Kraken? Oliver Bjorkstrand at No. 104.) As mentioned, the Kraken have succeeded with depth, but when the defense gets tough and the checking gets closer in a playoff chase, where can the team hang its hat? Who can reliably create his own shot and get to the dangerous areas?
All of the above becomes all the more acute if Andre Burakovsky is out for a long period of time with the lower-body injury he suffered in Tuesday’s game against the Islanders. Early indicators are not encouraging, as Burakovsky was placed on injured reserve Thursday morning. He quietly leads the team in total points and has been a stalwart in the top six since he arrived in the Pacific Northwest.
Can this team survive short term without Burakovsky? Most likely, yes. The team still has impressive depth scoring. But, with or without Burakovsky, the Kraken could use someone who fits the bill of a net-front scorer. As of today, I consider this is a bit of a luxury item and a lower priority at the trade deadline.
Injury replacements
But this gets us to the “last” category–which is last but only because it’s a bit of an unknown. The Kraken play 11 games between Thursday and the March 3 deadline. Injuries could happen in that stretch. Particularly if the team is losing Andre Burakovsky for a longer stretch, it does not have surplus depth in any one area if another player needs to miss time. Depending on how things shake out, health could be a major factor in Seattle’s thinking three weeks from now.
What are Seattle’s salary cap constraints going into the deadline?
Kraken fans heard much about “weaponizing cap space” after the Expansion Draft and in the ensuing 12 months. Well, Burakovsky and Schultz are here now; so is Bjorkstrand. That weapon has been deployed, at least for the 2022-23 season.
The team’s long-term cap outlook remains good, but, for this season, there are significant salary cap constraints on what the Kraken can do at the deadline.
I have previously dug into those cap constraints in gory detail. Check out that analysis here. Updating that work to account for the recent roster movement, including the acquisition of Megna, here is where the team currently stands.
If all of the players currently on the roster or injured reserve remain on the roster through the end of the season and no other players are added (whether from the AHL or via trade), CapFriendly projects Seattle to end the season with $834,073 in excess cap space. Matty Beniers remains on track to achieve $925,000 in performance bonuses on his entry-level contract. Since the Kraken currently could not fit this entire sum in their year-end cap space in this “no-movement” scenario, they would carry a small penalty on next season’s cap of $90,927 (i.e. the excess amount that won’t fit under the cap).
This tells a story: The Kraken are right against their effective cap right now, unless they are comfortable borrowing cap space from next season to pay for Beniers’ bonuses. The team will need to move out any cap space for any it brings in. This doesn’t mean their hands are completely tied. For example, the team could gain cap space by waiving a player (such as Chris Driedger or Cale Fleury), and it could hypothetically attach assets to trade a contract off of their books (such as the contract of Joonas Donskoi).
In the trade scenarios I’ll examine in Part III, I am going to presume for the time being that the Kraken would prefer to protect 2022-23 cap space to pay as much of Beniers’ bonuses as possible out of this year’s cap.
That said, the team would gain some flexibility if it decides that supplementing this year’s team is more important than protecting $925,000 in cap space for next season. In that case, without waiving or trading a single player (with just a little bit of cap gymnastics), the Kraken should be able to add contract(s) worth approximately $7.5 million to the existing roster at the deadline by utilizing all remaining cap space and placing Joonas Donskoi on long-term injured reserve. That opens up some options, right?
And, again, I should reiterate that a trading team can retain up to 50 percent of a player’s AAV (and cap hit) in a trade. This expands Seattle’s options yet further, provided the team is willing to pay the added cost a trade partner would demand to retain the salary.
What are the Kraken’s trade assets going into the trade deadline?
The Kraken are in a solid position to make trades if they decide to do it. Among contenders, their draft assets rank near the top, and their prospect pool has some names bound to intrigue other teams, even if it does not have as much depth as some.
Starting with the draft assets, the Kraken have ten picks in the 2023 draft and nine picks in the 2024 draft following the Jaycob Megna trade.
Source: CapFriendly
If the team is going to make a move before the deadline, I would expect trade partners to be asking about the team’s surplus of 2023 second-round draft picks. And the extra 2024 third-rounder could also come up.
The Kraken are in relatively strong position to trade draft assets if they decide to do so. Among teams currently in contention (currently in the playoffs if the season ended today, or on the periphery), no team has more picks in the first two rounds of the 2024 draft than Seattle. The Buffalo Sabres also possess one first-round pick and three second-round picks. And the New York Rangers have two first-round picks and one second-round pick. Beyond that, no contender has more than one pick in each of the first and second rounds. This gives Seattle an advantage.
As for drafted players, many public scouting services and reporters rank the Kraken with an average-or-better prospect pool notwithstanding the team’s short history. The team’s top-five prospects include center, Shane Wright (four goals in five games with the Firebirds/AHL and six goals and eight assists in seven games with Windsor Spitfires/OHL); center David Goyette (30 goals and 31 assists in 42 games with the Sudbury Wolves/OHL); right winger Jagger Firkus (25 goals and 35 assists in 49 games with the Moose Jaw Warriors/WHL); right defenseman Ty Nelson (19 goals and 41 assists in 49 games with the North Bay Battalion/OHL); and left defenseman Ryker Evans (four goals and 22 assists in 40 games with Firebirds/AHL). And that’s not to mention 20-year-old Matty Beniers, who is accumulating a strong case for the Calder Trophy in the NHL.
One of those players (Beniers) is likely off limits, full stop, in trade discussions. There are others (such as Wright) that I presume the Kraken would be very hesitant to deal. GM Ron Francis has stressed the importance of building the organization from the foundation up. But there are certainly other players Seattle would move in the right scenario.
All of this puts the team in good position to get a deal across the finish line if it finds the right one. Who could they target and at what cost? That’s what I’ll tackle next time, in the last part of this series.
Ottawa Senators forward Dylan Gambrell grew up in Bonney Lake, Wash., playing youth hockey for local associations. As his skills grew, he had aspirations to pursue a career in hockey. To do that, he needed to play against better competition and get better exposure to scouts than he could get locally.
At the age of 14, he and his parents decided that he would go to Colorado to play AAA hockey for the Colorado Thunderbirds, one of the top programs in the country.
“That was hard,” he said when asked about it years later. “I remember the day I was leaving. My parents are crying, and I had never seen my dad cry. It was a tough day, but it was totally worth it.”
It worked out for Gambrell who was eventually drafted by the USHL and then went to the University of Denver where he would be drafted by the San Jose Sharks. He is not the only local player to face this decision. The local youth programs are quality programs but don’t have teams that face top talent that can gain their players’ exposure to college and junior scouts.
That can change, however, and the Seattle Kraken’s youth hockey program is hoping to be the fix.
“Washington right now is in a spot where kids leave after they’re 14, 15 years old go to different spots,” director of Kraken youth hockey association Marty Hlinka said. “So, for our region and for our state and for Seattle, and definitely for the Kraken, we want to have a path for the players, where they have a chance to develop, stay at home, go to the same schools, have the same friends.”
That path will be here as soon as next hockey season.
The Kraken and Kraken Youth Hockey Association have been given USA Hockey’s approval to run and operate a AAA hockey program. AAA hockey (also known as Tier 1 hockey) is the top level for youth hockey and the level that many junior and college players are scouted and drawn from.
Seattle Junior and Sno-King hockey are handing their Tier 1 programs over to the Kraken, who will combine the two into one Kraken AAA team.
Tryouts will happen in April, and the Kraken hope to begin play in the fall. Hlinka and his staff are currently looking for coaches and a league to play in, as well as tournaments to travel to and play in.
“The hope is to have the talent actually get better,” Hlinka said. “Because the teams are going to get stronger, I should say, because there’s more talent available, and we’ll see what that looks like.”
For now, the program will include U14, U16, and U18 age groups. Hlinka said they are exploring other age groups and eventually a girls program.
Part of youth development
The Kraken youth program has become a popular place for the area youth to learn and develop as players.
“We opened the building, and since then we have had over 3000 kids take our learn-to-skate program,” Hlinka said. “We have 1000 kids that went through our learn-to-play programs. We have over 400 players in adult leagues and adult learn-to-play… the NHL being here, obviously the kids get more excited. The parents get more excited, and when the Kraken win, it’s a lot more fun. A lot more kids get into the game.”
The Kraken hope to offer a development path from beginner to playing beyond with the AAA program.
“We want to make sure that our development model emphasizes skating, and that’s why all our players that start in our building have to go to a learn-to-skate program,” Hlinka said. “Once they graduate, they go to our learn-to-play program that we’re very fortunate that the NHLPA sponsors.
“So, you learn how to skate, you know how to stand up, fall down without any gear on, so we put the gear on, and now you have the awesome blue jersey with the Kraken logo on it. Then we need to teach you how to skate and play and develop you as a hockey player.”
Hlinka, who has an extensive background playing and coaching at various levels of professional hockey, says that the coaches they ultimately bring in will be experienced in the game and will be in tune with the ultimate development path that the Kraken have implemented.
“There’s a lot of good players here, and we want to make sure that we give them a path if they want to stay. Everybody’s development path is a little different,” Hlinka said. “The hope is we’ll have a Kraken player that started here. We’re here to develop ladies and gentlemen and people, give them life skills that they can use in life when they’re done playing, but at the same time, we’re building hockey players for life.”
That wasn’t the return to game action the Seattle Kraken were looking for, as they laid an egg against the Islanders to kick off their five-game road trip.
The Islanders played and won Monday, and they looked like a team that just made a big trade for a star scorer (we’re referencing Bo Horvat, who, in fact, scored his first goal for New York in the game). The Kraken, meanwhile, looked like they just came back from a week of fun in the sun.
It was an ugly game from start to finish, and it may have also cost Seattle one of its biggest offensive weapons for a while.
Here are our Three Takeaways from an uninspiring 4-0 Kraken loss to the Islanders.
Takeaway #1: Just when you thought they were healthy…
We will admit, we’ve helped fuel the “They’re almost healthy!” excitement that has surrounded the Seattle Kraken since they returned to practice this week. After all, Matty Beniers and Jaden Schwartz both returned Tuesday, and Justin Schultz has appeared very close to ready.
So, they’re pretty much healthy, right?
Well, less than a minute into the game, Andre Burakovsky made a cut to his left in the neutral zone, tried to stop on his left leg, and pulled up lame. He hobbled off and went down the tunnel, and he did not return. He played all of 21 seconds.
We know Burakovsky had been dealing with something before the break, hence why he didn’t play against Colorado on Jan. 21. We don’t know if that something had to do with his left leg, which is clearly what he injured Tuesday.
The Kraken seemed off from the jump anyway, but Burakovsky’s unexpected absence threw things into disarray. Coach Dave Hakstol jumbled up his lines trying to manage through it, but it’s impossible to get any kind of continuity when that happens.
“You gotta juggle a little bit, but I mean, it happens to every team throughout a season,” said Schwartz. “Obviously it’s not ideal and you do have to make some adjustments. But we can do a better job.”
Seattle scratched Daniel Sprong in Tuesday’s game for the first time since the early stages of the season, so they have an extra forward if Burakovsky has to miss more of the road trip. Still, Burakovsky is Seattle’s leading scorer and cannot be easily replaced.
Hakstol did not have an update on Burakovsky after the game. Just when we thought they were healthy…
Takeaway #2: An ugly first outing after the break
Hakstol warned us Monday that the team may not look as crisp or sharp in its first game back after a nine-day layoff, but he expected good energy. He also admitted before the game Tuesday that the Islanders could have an advantage over the Kraken after playing and winning Monday night against Philadelphia. Hakstol couldn’t have expected that poor of an effort from Seattle, which in fact did not have great energy.
It was an uncharacteristically bad performance from top to bottom. The Kraken weren’t connecting on passes, they were bobbling and losing pucks all over the ice, and there was really only one stretch toward the end of the second period in which we could say the Kraken sustained pressure.
“We looked like we had the effects of coming off of a break,” said Hakstol. “We could not find a way to give ourselves energy.”
“I thought we started ok the first few shifts, but I think it’s pretty evident that just our puck play and structure, and I thought our energy was just a little bit low,” said Schwartz, who was playing in his first game since Jan. 12.
Schwartz also called out the fact that several players had long flights back to Seattle from vacation, and then another long flight to New York, which could have factored into the team’s sluggish appearance.
Added Ryan Donato, “[The energy] wasn’t there. I think maybe at the very beginning we had the jump, and then I don’t know. I don’t want to make any excuses, but I think we were half a step off after the first few minutes of the game the whole night.”
Now, New York is known to play a rather dull brand of hockey, so surely they were making things difficult on Seattle through the neutral zone and in their end. Even so, the Kraken didn’t have their best Tuesday, plain and simple.
“I think they reloaded hard,” said Schwartz. “They had pretty good gaps for the most part, not a lot of space through the neutral zone. So we had to chip a lot of pucks in and you know, when we weren’t getting on them quick enough, we had to back check and skate a little harder ourselves.”
Even Martin Jones wasn’t as sharp as we’ve come to expect, as demonstrated by J.G. Pageau catching him looking the other way with Pageau behind the net, leading to an easy goal for Simon Holmstrom late in the first period.
Isles score. Jones was looking the wrong way, and by the time he figured out where the puck was, Holmstrom had scored.
Meanwhile, when the Kraken did get a rare scoring chance at the other end, Ilya Sorokin—Jonses’s counterpart—was there to make a few big saves.
It was not Seattle’s night. Here’s hoping the Kraken can put this dud against the Islanders behind them quickly.
Takeaway #3: Matty Beniers looked good in his return
We have to find at least one positive Takeaway, right? Heck, we traveled all the way to Long Island to watch Burakovsky get hurt and Seattle get drubbed, so we might as well find a positive twist. Here’s that positive twist: Matty Beniers looked good.
In his first game back since taking a cheap hit from Tyler Myers and hitting his head on the ice on Jan. 25, Beniers looked like he hadn’t missed a beat. In fact, he looked better to us than he did in the games leading up to the injury.
He was dynamic with the puck every time he touched it and was the only Kraken player who consistently looked dangerous, both shooting and distributing. Somehow, he was only credited with one shot, but we seem to recall several, plus a shot off the outside of the post in the first period.
We tried to get Hakstol to give us some positives about Matty after the game, but Hakstol said, “I find it real hard to separate out individual performances out of our team performance tonight. We were off, we were a little bit slow, we weren’t as sharp as we wanted to be coming off of the break. I think everybody is included in that.”
Like we said, we tried to get a positive spin here.
In any case, Matty looked good to us, and it was refreshing to see Seattle’s rookie star back in there; perhaps the only bright spot of the night.
The boys are back! Jared McCann got engaged in Hawaii during the break, so Darren chatted with him Tuesday at UBS Arena in New York. That’s where the Kraken are beginning their five-game road trip through New York (Islanders and Rangers), New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Winnipeg.
It’s a very short .5 episode, but on this one, Darren brings you up to speed with what’s been happening with the team and has a fun check-in with McCann from the team’s dressing room.
Emerging from the All-Star break of their second season, the Seattle Kraken sit tied atop the Pacific Division standings with 63 points. Seattle is also tied for third in total standings points and second in points percentage in the entire Western Conference. And the path from here to the playoffs is not the most difficult in the league; as measured by opponent point percentage, the Kraken have the second easiest schedule in the NHL the rest of the way.
But nothing is assured. The nine Western Conference teams on the top of the leaderboard are tightly grouped between 66 and 57 standings points. And a tenth, Nashville, checks in with 54 standings points. Any team is just one long losing streak away from wondering how it all fell apart.
The engine of Seattle’s success has been elite even-strength scoring. The Kraken are first in the league by a healthy margin with 131 five-on-five goals. As we analyzed previously, though, there is some reason to think that Seattle may project as a middle-of-the-road even-strength scoring team moving forward. Combine that with special teams units that have not found sustained success this season, and there is fair cause to project a more “average” second half for the team. If Seattle’s competitors surge, things could get very interesting for the Kraken.
But none of this is news to the Kraken front office. They know the opportunity afforded by Seattle’s sterling first half. They know the strengths and weaknesses of their team better than anyone, and they know the levers they can pull moving forward to mitigate the risk of collapse.
The most notable lever is the option to trade for reinforcements. The NHL Trade Deadline is now just 24 days away, on March 3. With the calendar flipped to February, we are already squarely into trade season. The Vancouver Canucks already shipped out one of the prizes of the deadline, Bo Horvat. And the Seattle Kraken have made a relatively minor, but savvy, move of their own, sending a 2023 fourth-round draft pick to San Jose for towering, 30-year-old blueliner Jaycob Megna. Clearly, the time is now to be looking at the options.
New #SeaKraken Jaycob Megna, 30 yo, is 6'6", 220 lbs.
In first year of 2-year, 1-way deal. $762,500 AAV.
135 career NHL games. 4 goals, 21 points.
Lineup regular for the 1st time this season. 1 goal, 11 assists in 48 gp.
What else could the Kraken do before the deadline?
A lot goes into even speculating at the question of what the Kraken could do from here. What players are likely to be available and at what cost? How much can Seattle add under the cap? What are Seattle’s needs? And how aggressive can we reasonably expect general manager Ron Francis and his front office to get?
Let’s turn to these preliminary questions first, in reverse order, before returning to the main issue. In this Part I, I’ll take a look at history to see if there is anything we can say about Seattle’s likely approach to the trade deadline. In Part II, I’ll dive in on the Kraken’s team needs and cap situation. Later, in Part III, I’ll write about the players likely to be available at the deadline, market costs, and conclude with a few speculative projections for the Kraken, depending on how aggressive the team gets.
Ron Francis and the trade deadline
What can we learn from Francis’s history at the trade deadline? First, he has been active. Across five trade deadlines as the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes and then the Seattle Kraken before this season, he has made 18 trades in the month leading up to the trade deadline. And he has made at least one trade every single year.
That activity has already manifested this season, with the early trade for Jaycob Megna. Before that trade, Francis described his willingness to supplement the roster: “We want to make sure that we stick to our plan and build this long-term,” he said to Seattle Sports 710 AM. “But if there’s pieces that we feel we can add that make sense and that help us be more successful, we’re certainly open to doing that as long as the price is right.”
That said, here is a remarkable fact about the recent Megna deal: It is the first time Ron Francis has been a true “buyer” in a deadline deal. At each deadline before this season, Francis’s trades aimed to gather assets for the future (or fill in players) rather than build the current roster for a stretch run. To be clear, this is not necessarily due to some innate aversion to giving up assets for a stretch run, though. As reflected in the chart above, his teams have never been in a position to make a run for the playoffs.
Either way, we are in uncharted territory. Based on history and Francis’s comments, we could reasonably expect him to continue to evaluate potential upgrades, at least on the margins. “I think it’s a fine line,” Ron Francis said in a recent interview. “It’s a balance, right? You want to show your guys you believe in them and try to add something to help them. But you also understand the importance of building the (foundation) underneath as well.” How will he balance it? How aggressive will he be? We don’t really have a roadmap because Francis has not been in this situation.
We do have the broader context of Ron Francis the GM. We know he has not been overly aggressive on true high-end, high-cost players, such as Gabriel Landeskog in the Expansion Draft or Dougie Hamilton in 2021 free agency.
Indeed, Francis has never taken on any top-of-the-league contracts. The largest deal on any Ron Francis team, both in gross value and percentage of the team’s cap space, is Philipp Grubauer’s six-year, $5.9 million AAV deal. Grubauer is currently 139th in the league as measured by AAV and 149th by cap percentage. The next closest contract Francis has signed by cap percentage is a seven-year, $5.3 million AAV with Jaccob Slavin in Carolina in 2017 (which I mention mostly because it has proven to be such a tremendous contract).
It could be a coincidence. It could be Francis has a philosophical preference to construct a roster with a deep middle class of players rather than committing resources at the top. None of this necessarily means he wouldn’t ever take on a bigger deal, particularly in the context of a deadline rental. But there is at least some evidence that suggests Francis is less likely to go big-game hunting at the deadline.
So what areas of the roster will Ron Francis be looking to supplement? And what tools does he have at his disposal–both in terms of cap space and trade assets–to get a deal done? I’ll look at those issues in Part II.
