There is a line in The Dark Knight, where the Joker, played by Heath Ledger, holds up a gloved hand and in a very staccato rhythm, says, “And here… we… go.” Ledger delivers the memorable line just as chaos is about to strike Gotham City. That cinematic moment is the perfect representation of how Wednesday’s Seattle Kraken morning skate felt at Climate Pledge Arena, as the team prepared to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
After weeks of discussion about who could be traded out of Seattle prior to the March 21 NHL Trade Deadline, the Kraken took a page out of the Joker’s book and threw some gasoline on the speculation fire and will hold captain Mark Giordano out of the lineup for their game against the Lightning.
Is a Giordano trade imminent?
It’s no surprise that the 38-year-old former Norris Trophy winner could eventually be traded. With his expiring contract, Giordano is the Kraken player that has been most heavily cycled through the NHL rumor mill all season. Still, it felt like a real bombshell had gone off when coach Dave Hakstol confirmed Giordano would not play on a night when he was also set to be honored for recently playing in his 1,000th career game. We have since confirmed that the ceremony will go on as planned.
Historically, these kinds of moves to hold veteran players out of the lineup tend to happen only when a trade is imminent. So, one can only surmise from this decision that a deal to move Giordano is either in place or very close to being done. It is our belief here at Sound Of Hockey that Giordano has played his last game as a member of the Kraken, but we shall see if that comes to fruition.
An interesting morning
It’s funny to look back at Wednesday’s on-ice practice session and think about how a couple things played out. First, we thought it was interesting that Giordano was skating on a defensive pair with the oft-scratched Will Borgen, but we didn’t think much of it. We also thought it was a funny little moment when former Lightning Yanni Gourde tried to get Giordano to lead the team stretch at the end of the skate. But we again shrugged it off, especially since the Kraken are set to honor Giordano with a ceremony commemorating his 1,000th game on Wednesday night.
Ryan Donato was asked about Giordano, and he called the captain, “The epitome of what you want to be as a 1,000-game player.” Donato also said the trade deadline is unsurprisingly on players’ minds right now. “I think it’s a pretty sensitive subject, right? Like some guys are in certain positions. And you got to understand it’s a business and there’s a lot of different aspects of it. Guys have families here, there’s different things that are emotionally attached to it… It is hard not to think about it.”
On how to keep the players focused on the task at hand, Hakstol said, “There’s no easy way, I mean that’s real stuff. You’re dealing with real life. For Gio, it’s a real important night for him and his family, the celebration that we’re going to have before the game. From the standpoint of the reality of the business side of the game, there’s that conflict there. Those are real-life items.”
In retrospect, there was probably a little more to the on-ice moment between Gourde and Giordano than we realized. Depending on what happens in the next 24 hours or so, that could have been the last time Giordano skated with his Kraken teammates.
Jaden Schwartz not at morning skate
Jaden Schwartz did not participate in morning skate. SOH’s own Andy Eide asked Hakstol why he wasn’t there, and Hakstol simply said, “He wasn’t out there this morning.” So, as of the writing of this story, it is unclear if Schwartz’s absence means anything of significance.
Our guess is that it does not mean much. Joonas Donskoi, who is still officially listed on injured reserve, was a full participant in morning skate and took regular line rushes with Calle Jarnkrok and Jordan Eberle. However, Hakstol confirmed that Donskoi is still unavailable for the Kraken against the Lightning, so it would make sense that he was just serving as a placeholder on the top trio for Schwartz.
The non-explanation from Hakstol was a bit odd, but we caution you against reading too much into Schwartz’s absence.
The Trade Deadline is almost upon us, and the Sound Of Hockey Podcast is here to discuss how the first couple transactions of this busy time in the NHL impact the values of potential Kraken trades.
Before they get to that, John, Andy, and Darren recap the two Kraken games played since the last episode. They also give some other quick Seattle-related hits and a “Down on the Farm” update about Matty Beniers.
Other topics touched on this week include Jack Eichel’s salty comments in his return to Buffalo and the MN State High School Hockey Tournament (which Darren loves).
Eventually, the show shifts to segments, which include Bad Boys, Weekly One-Timers, You Don’t See That Every Day, and Sound Of Hockey’s Three Stars.
Along with the rest of the Kraken community, Sound Of Hockey was abuzz when the team announced that Jared McCann had signed a five-year extension worth $25 million last week. McCann is the team’s leading goal scorer and one of a small handful of players young enough and skilled enough to bridge the Kraken from the current roster to whatever comes next.
We had debated potential McCann contracts internally just days earlier after Ron Francis indicated the team would get something done with McCann one way or another. When the contract came down on March 8, we all agreed that this was a good deal for the team, but disagreed a bit on whether there was anything truly surprising about it. As recounted on the SOH podcast, Darren Brown appropriately took a victory lap for his close contract prediction. Good job, Darren. Andy Eide and John Barr indicated the deal was in the neighborhood of expected term and value for the player. But I thought the deal was incredibly team friendly.
My reaction was largely based on my projection of the value that Jared McCann brings to the team. Per TopDownHockey’s WAR statistic, McCann has been the 23rd most valuable skater in the NHL since the beginning of last season. (If you’re curious to read more about TopDownHockey’s WAR stat, dive in here.) Even if that metric is a bit optimistic on McCann, there is no denying his goal scoring touch is tremendous. And at 26 years old, he should have several productive years in front of him.
I also thought I understood McCann’s negotiating leverage. McCann was scheduled to be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning that he was almost certain to return to Seattle on a new contract of some kind. He could only sign with a different team on an offer sheet, and offer sheets are exceedingly rare in hockey due to the draft pick compensation involved—and, you know, the collusion.
But McCann was due for unrestricted status in the summer of 2023, which in my mind should have given his camp significant clout to seek a long-term, big-money deal or a one- or two-year bridge deal that would have gotten him to UFA status quickly.
Given that McCann’s contract didn’t fit my expectations, I wanted to dig into the recent precedent for McCann’s deal by examining contracts signed by comparable players with one year left to unrestricted free agency. After analyzing these comparables, I will return to the question of whether this is a fair and expected deal, or the best contract the Kraken have signed, by far.
Methodology
I gathered contract information from CapFriendly. At the time Jared McCann signed his contract, he had played in 403 games and amassed 188 points. Using CapFriendly’s contract comparable tool, I was able to compile a long list of contracts signed by players as restricted free agents with similar totals in games played and points at the time of signing.
From this long list I further filtered the results manually. Most importantly, I limited the results to only those contracts signed beginning with the player’s last RFA year. In other words, when the contract was signed, the player had only one more season left to unrestricted status.
Second, I included only contracts signed for the 2010-11 season to the present. I chose this limiting factor arbitrarily with the goal of limiting the sample to a reasonable recent time period in which point production is roughly similar.
Third, I calculated the points-per-game production of this list of players and further reduced the sample to only those players whose production matched Jared McCann’s scoring production with .1 points per game. Put differently, assuming a full season of games played, I limited the sample to players who had averaged approximately eight points per season more or less that McCann has averaged.
For each of these contracts, CapFriendly supplied not only the dollar average annual value (AAV) of the deal, but also the percentage of the salary cap the AAV represented at the time the deal was signed. Using this percentage, I was able to adjust these contracts into a present value by multiplying the percentage by the current NHL salary cap ($82 million). This facilitates a fairer, direct comparison to McCann’s deal. I refer to this figure as the “cap-adjusted AAV” below.
Reviewing the comparable contracts
The narrowing process described above yielded 13 comparable contracts.
A few trends and takeaways from this group of player contracts:
More than half of the comparable negotiations resulted in contracts of two years or shorter
Of the 13 comparable contracts, four were one-year deals, meaning that the team did not buy out any UFA years. Three were two-year deals, meaning that the team was able to secure only one UFA year.
The collective bargaining agreement limits a player to restricted free agency with his existing team through all of his early prime years. (See an explainer on the NHL’s free agency rules here.) This status depresses the player’s salary because he is not able to really shop his services to the entire league. Naturally, a player gains greater leverage to maximize his salary when he is unrestricted.
For a player like McCann heading into his final RFA year without an existing long-term deal, a short deal has the advantage of getting the player into unrestricted free agency when he’s still in his mid-to-late 20’s, the prime range for scoring the biggest free-agent payday. There was a strong preference in McCann’s comparable group for this short-term approach, likely because any longer terms offered weren’t enticing enough to forego the chance to become a UFA.
Teams needed to pay to increase the term
Due to the dynamic described above, players and teams were more willing to settle on a lower AAV on a short-term deal. Conversely, to secure a player long term, the team needed to commit to a higher AAV. This is because a longer-term deal would mean that the player could not become an unrestricted free agent until he was well north of 30 years old.
Data from CapFriendly; chart by DeepSeaHockey
The data suggests that while the team and McCann may have been able to settle on a sub-$4 million, one-year contract, it should have required $6 million AAV or more to get the longest terms available under the CBA.
Only one comparable negotiation resulted in a deal longer than McCann’s five-year term
Of the six contracts longer than two years, five of the negotiations settled on a three-to-five-year term. Only one contract broke that mold. Las Vegas and William Karlsson agreed to an eight-year maximum-length deal starting in the 2019-20 season. That said, it may be fair to characterize that particular negotiation as an outlier. (More on Karlsson’s unique circumstances below.)
Jared McCann’s contract is below market value relative to the comparable group
Based on the precedent set by comparable players in comparable circumstances, McCann should have expected more than $5.5 million AAV on a five-year term contract. The data further suggests that, absent a deal in that neighborhood, McCann would have been well justified to reject any offers beyond a one-or-two-year term in order to test unrestricted free agency sooner.
Data from CapFriendly; chart by DeepSeaHockey
The fact that the Kraken got a full five-year term on a below-expected AAV is fairly surprising. At the time of signing, McCann’s contract is projected to provide the most surplus contract value for the team versus market expectation of any player in this data set, narrowly edging Tyler Kennedy’s undervalued two-year contract. (More on Kennedy’s unique case below.)
Analyzing notable comparable contracts
While the above analysis fairly supports the conclusion that McCann’s contract is team friendly, the comparables did not follow a particularly tight correlation along the trend line (r squared ~ .62). So, I dug further into each of the comparable players to see what, if anything, could be learned. After all, not all players with similar point-per-game totals hold the same value, particularly when those players are spread across more than a decade of league play.
Jared McCann (403 games played; 188 points; 5 x $5 m AAV in 2022 at age 26)
McCann’s point totals have been trending up with increased playing time opportunity, and he has established himself over the last three years as a highly efficient goal scorer. With strong play driving analytics too, his total contributions to his team are understated by his raw point totals.
Brock Nelson (398 gp; 188 pts; 1 x $4.25 m AAV in 2018 at age 26; $4.387 m adj AAV)
Islanders forward Brock Nelson was McCann’s closest point production comparable. Nelson had logged an identical number of points as McCann (188) in five fewer games played when Nelson signed a contract in summer, 2018, before his final RFA year. But digging deeper into Nelson’s offensive, defensive, and special teams play-driving analytics, his other play doesn’t match McCann’s contributions.
Nelson submitted for arbitration and ultimately settled with the Islanders on a one-year, $4.25 million deal. The next year, without any significant uptick in play, Nelson was able to leverage his pending unrestricted status into a further six-year, $6 million AAV contract from the Islanders before free agency.
Since McCann is a better player, Nelson’s monetary result (a total of $40.25 million over seven years) was likely there for McCann had he pursued it. On the other hand, Nelson carried the risk of injury and performance decline in the 2018-19 season. There’s no guarantee McCann would have been so fortunate should he have opted for a short-term deal.
Andre Burakovsky (386 gp; 190 pts; 2 x $4.9 m AAV in 2020 at age 25; $4.928 adj AAV)
Burakovsky was McCann’s fifth closest comparable on a point production basis, but when digging into his analytics, Burakovsky has emerged for me as McCann’s most similar and interesting comp for several reasons.
Like McCann, his underlying play-driving and efficiency analytics are strong. Burakovsky mildly outperforms McCann as an offensive finisher but lags behind the Kraken forward as a defender. All told, his value and leverage at the negotiating table in 2020 was almost identical to McCann’s position in 2022.
Burakovsky wielded this leverage differently than McCann. He negotiated to a virtually identical AAV but on a two-year term. In other words, Burakovsky sold only one UFA year, whereas McCann sold four. Burkaovsky favored flexibility and upside; McCann opted for certainty.
Now Burakovsky is slated to be a sought-after free agent in the 2022 unrestricted free agent class at 27 years old. He is poised to strike with a big-value, long-term deal.
This was the precedent for McCann to “bet on himself” and recoup as much of his value as possible. Again, had McCann gone this way, he would have carried some risk of career-altering or career-ending injury. But, assuming he emerged relatively healthy, McCann was likely to find a taker that would match or surpass his current $5 million AAV—even if his play slipped some.
By committing to the Kraken early instead of following the similar path set by Burakovsky, McCann put a lot of expected value in Seattle’s pocket. Just how much? We’ll get a better sense when we see Burakovsky’s 2022 free-agent deal.
Tomas Tatar (345 gp; 194 pts; 4 x $5.3 m in 2017 at age 26; $5.797 adj AAV)
Superficially, Tomas Tatar was the weakest comparable for McCann in the group, having recorded more points than McCann in approximately 60 fewer games played. But Tatar’s weaker underlying play-driving analytics indicate a player of similar overall value to McCann.
Also like McCann, Tatar opted for medium-term deal, signing for four years. But Tatar landed a much stronger deal, returning only slightly less total cash than McCann over four years rather than McCann’s five.
Tyler Kennedy (372 gp; 168 pts; 2 x $2.35 m in 2013 at age 26; $2.993 adj AAV)
Kennedy was McCann’s third closest point production comparable when he signed. When Kennedy was entering his final RFA year in 2013 at age 26, he had a 20-goal season under his belt, and his underlying analytics were solid, even if trending downwards over the previous two years.
Pittsburgh traded Kennedy to San Jose in June 2013, and Kennedy signed perhaps the weakest deal among the comparable group: a two-year, $2.35 million AAV contract (approximately $3 million AAV on a cap-adjusted basis). And while the deal was cheap and “team friendly,” Kennedy’s on ice performance cratered. He would sign just one more minimum contract in 2015 before exiting the league entirely at 29 years old.
The case of Tyler Kennedy is certainly an outlier in McCann’s comparable group. But it is also a cautionary tale for a player choosing to “bet on himself” in his mid-20’s at the end of restricted free agency. Sometimes these bets pay off, as with Brock Nelson and others. But without the long-term guarantee, those bets can go bust. Kennedy busted and unfortunately never truly monetized the value he delivered to the Penguins in his early 20’s.
William Karlsson (347 gp; 184 pts; 8 x $5.9 m in 2019 at age 26; $5.937 m adj AAV)
Moving from one extreme to the other, we arrive at the well-documented case of William Karlsson. A middling player in Columbus, Karlsson improbably broke out into superstardom after being selected in the Expansion Draft by the Vegas Golden Knights. Karlsson scored 43 goals in the 2017-18 season after amassing just 18 total across his first three seasons in the league. After he followed that up with a solid 24-goal performance in 2018-19, Karlsson approached the negotiating table in the summer of 2019 just one year from unrestricted free agency with significant bargaining power. He maximized that leverage to obtain an eight-year, maximum-term deal, carrying a $5.9 million AAV.
Karlsson’s late blooming goal production is unique. He no doubt leveraged his 40-goal campaign and his 67 total goals over two years to achieve a result that McCann could not. I’m confident that the Kraken would have bristled if McCann’s camp raised Karlsson’s contract as a comparable. But when checking below the hood, McCann in 2022 is not far off from the player Karlsson was in 2019.
An eight-year term was unrealistic for McCann. No other comparable player had achieved more than a five-year term. But there is a reasonable argument that McCann had the second strongest overall value profile in this sample behind Karlsson. For that reason, I do not think it would have been unreasonable for McCann to insist on a six-or-seven-year term at a comparable cap-adjusted AAV to Karlsson’s deal.
Cap-adjusted five-year earnings for McCann’s comparables
One other way to look at McCann’s contract is to consider what comparable players earned, in cap-adjusted terms, over the same five-year term to which McCann just committed.
Of the thirteen comparable contract situations, three (Burkavosky, Tierney, and Athanasiou) are scheduled for unrestricted free agency this offseason and have not yet signed new deals. Thus, it is still uncertain what these players will earn over a full five-year term.
Of the ten other contracts, six returned slightly more cap-adjusted value to the player than McCann’s five-year, $25 million deal. Three players earned slightly less cap-adjusted value than McCann. And, one player, Tyler Kennedy, was out of the league three years after his RFA contract and earned significantly less than McCann.
Note: Shaded cells represent RFA deal signed in the last year before UFA status; unshaded cells are UFA contract years
Refocusing on Jared McCann’s contract
After working through these comparable contracts, it’s fair to say I had set my sights too high for McCann when I argued to John, Darren, and Andy a few days before McCann’s signing that the Kraken forward shouldn’t accept any offer below $6 million AAV or any offer in the three-to-five-year term range. Players in his point production range do not regularly secure such premium contracts before unrestricted free agency. Based on his significant skillset beyond his point production, McCann and his team could have argued for a two-year $6 million AAV short-term deal or a six-year $6.5 million AAV long-term deal. But the historical precedent was not there.
That said, we can be confident in the conclusion that Jared McCann’s contract is quite team friendly relative to his contract comparables, both in term and AAV. The Kraken did well to secure a building block player who wanted to stay in Seattle on a very favorable contract for the club. The McCann deal isthe best contract the team has ever signed.
It was closer than it needed to be, but Philipp Grubauer put the Kraken on his back and ended their five-game road trip with a 4-3 shootout win against the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre on Saturday.
Grubauer stopped 15 shots early and helped Seattle build a 3-1 lead heading into the third period.
He had the Kraken up 3-2 with time winding down and the Canadiens net empty. Then it happened. Adam Larsson attempted to knock away a puck from the Seattle net. He swung his stick and deflected it past Grubauer for a game-tying own goal at 17:48 to send the game into overtime.
“Shit happens, you know, it’s hockey,” Jared McCann said. “Sorry about my language. But, it’s just the way it goes, [Larsson] tried to make a play and everybody saw that so we were there for him. He’s done a lot of great things for us this year, so we just stuck with him. It was great to get the win for him.”
Seattle leaned on its goalie for four more saves in overtime, including a big-time glove save from in close.
“Reaction save for sure,” Grubauer said. “Not the ideal situation in, in overtime, to give that shot up but I made the save and we won the face off and went up the other way.”
Neither team scored in overtime and Grubauer would be tasked with shutting down seven shootout attempts before finally Marcus Johansson won it by lifting a backhand over Montreal goalie Sam Montembeault for the win.
“I wasn’t even watching on JoJo’s goal,” Grubauer said. “I had my head down… So, I don’t even know what he did. But he scored so I guess it was a nice move.”
Grubauer ended the night with 30 saves to send the Kraken (18-37-6) home on a happy note with a 1-3-1 record on the trip. Johansson had two assists to surpass 400 career points.
Montembeault stopped 32 shots and Alexander Romanov had a goal and an assist for the Canadiens (15-35-8), who failed to make up ground on the Kraken and pull out of the league’s basement.
“It was a pretty even hockey game and there was a lot of pace to it,” Kraken coach Dave Hakstol said. “At the end of the day there was pretty good goaltending at both ends of the rink, good opportunities at both ends of the rink, and it’s a good way for us to finish out the road trip. It’s tough to give up the lead but I didn’t dislike the way we played in the third. They played well and they had a good push. But, you know, I didn’t feel like we had any panic to our game at all.”
Kraken build lead early
Gourde put the Kraken on the board with a shorthanded goal at 9:26 of the first period to make it 1-0. The Canadiens mishandled the puck coming out from behind their net and Gourde tapped in a loose puck for his 13th of the year.
Moments later, on the same penalty kill, Mason Appleton snapped a shot for another shorthanded goal, but the play was challenged and the goal was disallowed as Appleton was offside. It’s the second straight game Appleton has lost a goal to an offside challenge.
Montreal evened the score 1-1 at 14:50 in the first period after a scramble in the Seattle end put the puck on Michael Pezzetta’s stick in the slot. He fired and scored.
Ryan Donato gave the Kraken a 2-1 lead at 16:42 in the first when he scored after Johansson’s initial shot rebounded hard off the boards. It was the second straight game scoring for Donato.
Seattle extended its lead to 3-1 at 15:05 of the second period on a Jared McCann power-play goal. Johansson drove the puck behind the Montreal net and flung a perfect pass to McCann in the high slot where he would bury his team leading 23rd of the season and second in two games.
With the tally, McCann equaled his career high in points with 35 and power-play goals in a season with eight.
Romanov cut the lead to 3-2 at 1:04 of the third period with a point shot after another big rebound off the end boards.
Special teams big for Kraken
At the start of the road trip, Seattle’s special teams were a struggle. The power play was not converting, and they gave up a host of power play goals against. At one point they had allowed seven out of 11 on the penalty kill.
The Kraken took too many penalties Saturday, giving the Canadiens six looks, but Seattle killed them all off and scored a shorthanded goal.
“Guys were good on the PK and they got their looks and believe me that’s where you know your best PKer has to be the guy in the pipes and Grubi did a really good job there,” Hakstol said. “We found a way to get a shorty. That another big point of the hockey game.”
Tentacle Tales
+ Joonas Donskoi and Alex Wennberg missed the game due to injury. Donskoi had been placed on the injured reserve list Friday with an upper body injury.
+ Kole Lind was recalled from Charlotte of the American Hockey League. He started on the second line, but ultimately played just over 11 minutes in this special teams heavy game.
+ Morgan Geekie had an assist Saturday giving him one in each of the past two games.
+ The Kraken will return to Climate Pledge Arena for a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday.
Unfortunately, the Kraken are buried in the standings, otherwise the point they earned Thursday in Ottawa would have loomed huge in a playoff race.
After playing flat for two periods, Seattle trailed 3-0 heading into the third but would roar back to score three goals and force overtime. Ottawa’s Josh Norris scored on a power-play goal at 2:34 of the extra period and the Senators would hold off the Kraken with a 4-3 win at Canadian Tire Centre.
“The first two periods were inexcusable, I think we knew that,” Ryan Donato said. “The momentum was dead. We needed something, Jared [McCann] got a big goal and once we got that feeling of ‘we’re back in this,’ I think a lot of guys felt a lot better about the situation. I thought we put in a hell of an effort in the third period and unfortunately it ended the way it did. But testament to our character.”
The results weren’t what Seattle wanted, but the comeback was impressive as the Kraken continue to show resiliency no matter the circumstances.
“It’s important to be able to go out there and play hard for one another and fight, compete right till the very end, whether we got one or not,” Kraken coach Dave Hakstol said. “That’s real important, but, to be able to execute and build on that momentum and have that period where everybody fed off each other is important but doesn’t lessen the disappointment in terms of the loss in overtime. We’re not looking for feel good points, we’re looking for wins and it’s tough to tie that game up and come back and then lose it in overtime.”
About five minutes into the third period, Chris Driedger got his body in front of a shot from Artem Zub. It was a shot that looked like it would flip the score to 4-0 and end the night for the Kraken. Driedger kept it out and it woke up the Kraken.
Starting with Jared McCann scoring his 22nd at 9:14, the Kraken stormed back with goals in quick succession. McCann’s goal was followed by Donato tipping a Jamie Oleksiak pass in to cut the lead to 3-2 at 9:50.
Donato was playing his first game since March 2 and had been a healthy scratch the past three games.
“He was prepared, he was ready for puck drop,” McCann said. “It was good, really good to see him get one there. He deserved it, he works his bag off.”
The comeback would be completed at 13:01 when Mason Appleton’s shot hit goalie Anton Forsberg but fluttered in to tie the game at 3-3.
“We just came alive, we played simple,” McCann said. “It sounds cliche at this point, but that’s the way we’ve got to play to win games. The first two periods were pretty bad obviously and we had some bad turnovers and kind of left [Driedger] out to dry again.”
Forsberg stopped 30 Kraken shots and Norris scored two goals for Ottawa (21-31-5), who won its second game in a row. Brady Tkachuk had a goal and an assist.
Driedger ended the game with 23 saves for Seattle (17-27-5), who have lost the first four games of a five-game road trip.
Early disallowed goal costly for Kraken
Seattle scored first in the game when Appleton converted a cross-ice pass from Colin Blackwell. It gave the Kraken life and momentum, but it would be short-lived as the Senators challenged the play for offside. After a review, it was ruled that Yanni Gourde was in the zone early, no goal.
Fifteen seconds later, Norris gave the Senators a 1-0 lead at 8:32 of the first period when he attacked the net and tipped in a pass from Tkachuk for his 21st of the season and fourth point in his past two games.
“I think there’s always ebbs and flows,” Donato said. “I feel like lately, a lot of the chances that we’ve got or the reviews have gone the other way for us and sometimes that can be deflating, but I think we got to learn from our past lessons. You can’t get too high or too low on those decisions. You can’t control those, and you got to be big the next shift.”
What was a fast and energetic start for Seattle soon deflated like a leaky party balloon.
Tkachuk extended the Ottawa lead to 2-0 at 5:43 of the second period after Oleksiak failed to clear the puck out of the zone. The Senators intercepted his outlet pass and put it on net where Tkachuk backhanded a rebound past Driedger.
Another defensive mistake allowed the Senators to go up 3-0 at 7:40. Adam Larsson fumbled the puck in his own zone and Ottawa jumped on it, leading to a goal by Parker Kelly.
Tentacle Tales
+ Defenseman Haydn Fleury was in the lineup for the Kraken Thursday. He had not played since Feb 22.
+ Joonas Donskoi was a healthy scratch for the Kraken.
+ Despite earning a point in the standings, the Kraken have slipped to the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Already a lottery team for the upcoming draft, Seattle leads the Montreal Canadiens by three points (Montreal has three games in hand) for the last spot in the league, and the most lotto balls in the Draft. The two teams will play in Montreal on Saturday.
Just kidding. We promise the guys don’t *actually* talk about Russell Wilson that much on this latest episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast… but they do mention it. Of course, the Wilson news was overshadowed by Jared McCann’s five-year contract extension, which John, Andy, and Darren *do* breakdown at length after discussing the last four Kraken games.
They also discuss some of the other recent roster moves and the Ron Francis presser. That leads nicely into the return of “Translating Ron Francis,” which is always a good time, as well as some trade deadline predictions and praise for Alison Lukan.
Once the Kraken talk dies down, the guys transition into segments, which include You Don’t See That Every Day, Weekly One-Timers, and Three Stars.
Just kidding. We promise the guys don’t *actually* talk about Russell Wilson that much on this latest episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast… but they do mention it. Of course, the Wilson news was overshadowed by Jared McCann’s five-year contract extension, which John, Andy, and Darren *do* breakdown at length after discussing the last four Kraken games.
They also discuss some of the other recent roster moves and the Ron Francis presser. That leads nicely into the return of “Translating Ron Francis,” which is always a good time, as well as some trade deadline predictions and praise for Alison Lukan.
Once the Kraken talk dies down, the guys transition into segments, which include You Don’t See That Every Day, Weekly One-Timers, and Three Stars.
In part 5 of this series, I analyzed how the Kraken scheme transitions through the neutral zone and into their offense. As part of that piece, I noted that the Kraken prioritize, and have achieved, a strong volume of offensive zone entries this season. But the scheme, as implemented by this group of Kraken players, has frequently resulted in uncontrolled zone entries, where the Kraken are chasing to recover a loose puck.
In this part, I analyze how the team attempts to recover those pucks in the offensive zone, and/or immediately challenge opposing possession deep in the zone.
Hakstol’s philosophy: attack on the forecheck
As discussed in the last part, Hakstol’s neutral zone stretch pass scheme results in frequent tip in, uncontrolled offensive zone entries. And when carrying the puck through the neutral zone, Hakstol seemingly emphasizes that his players err on the side of a dump in into the offensive zone when under pressure. This approach slows the game down by limiting the opponent’s ability to rapidly counterattack off a neutral-zone turnover but leads to yet more uncontrolled entries.
This neutral zone scheme will not generate offensive success unless linked with a coordinated and committed offensive-zone puck retrieval scheme. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Hakstol and his staff have worked to make the forecheck a key part of the Kraken’s identity since the first day of training camp. The priority is to get the puck behind the opponent’s net, and as long as it’s there, pressure the puck aggressively with F1 and F2.
In the preseason, Hakstol noted the importance of the aggressive, attacking two-man forecheck as a driver of the offense: “It’s big to have good, strong fundamentals with (forward) one and (forward) two doing their job, then you’re looking for the payoff off that forecheck — that’s part of forechecking, getting the puck back in an opportunity to score.” What does it look like on the white board?
Hakstol’s scheme: the 2-1-2 offensive zone forecheck
When forechecking in the offensive zone, the Kraken deploy their skaters in a 2-1-2 formation, with two forwards deepest in the zone, a forward in the center of the zone, in or near the slot, and the two defensemen high near the blue line. This formation is used in various situations.
Diagram 1: OZ 2-1-2 forecheck set play
First, the Kraken run an offensive zone set play off of their stretch pass scheme. The defenseman attempts to connect with F3 near the offensive blue line with a long pass, and F3 tips the puck into the zone as the other forwards, F1 and F2, carry momentum into the zone in pursuit of the puck. Both F1 and F2 will pursue all the way below the goal line to recover, while F3 moves into the slot to corral a centering pass and convert it immediately into a scoring chance.
Clip 1: OZ 2-1-2 set playDiagram 2: OZ 2-1-2 forecheck
In this clip, the Kraken deploy a variation of the standard set play described above. Adam Larsson connects with Calle Jarnkrok on a stretch pass, who deflects the puck into the offensive zone. Jaden Schwartz activates on the forecheck and is quickly below the goal line attempting recover the puck. Alex Wennberg (the other forward on the ice) is farther back on the play, so Jarnkrok decides to jump into the play below the goal line as the F2. Wennberg fills in as F3 in front of the net. The Kraken ultimately lose the puck battle and the Hurricanes clear the zone on this play.
Second, the Kraken default to two aggressive forecheckers and a 2-1-2 formation on standard uncontrolled dump-in plays.
Clip 2: OZ 2-1-2 off of a “dump in”
In this clip, Wennberg is pressured at the blue line and doesn’t see an opportunity for a controlled entry, so he fires the puck in deep. Schwartz and Jarnkork pursue behind the net as F1 and F2. Again, Wennberg fills the slot as F3, but Schwartz seemingly anticipates that he’ll be closer to the net front and doesn’t connect on the pass. Again the Hurricanes clear the zone.
Third, and finally, the Kraken will use this 2-1-2 formation when there is a turnover, lost faceoff, or lost puck battle that results in possession for the opponent deep in the offensive zone (i.e., near or below the goal line).
Clip 3: OZ 2-1-2 against a turnover
In this clip, defenseman Jamie Oleksiak attempts to cycle the puck behind the net, but he turns the puck over to the Hurricanes. With the puck that deep in the zone, Jordan Eberle and Jared McCann immediately challenge in tandem. The Hurricanes are able to relieve pressure and clear the zone, however.
Note that when a turnover results in a clear, opponent possession, the Kraken will rapidly transition into their 1-2-2 neutral zone forechecking formation discussed in part 2.
Scheme scorecard: producing shots off the forecheck
The initial goal of the offensive zone forecheck is to recover possession after an uncontrolled zone entry. At this task, the Kraken have been relatively effective. Per analyst Corey Sznajder, the Kraken are above league average in converting dump ins into offensive zone possession, recovering more than one third of these types of zone entries. Those “fundamentals” Hakstol referenced are working.
Of course, the ultimate goal of the offensive zone forecheck is to generate scoring chances. Seattle has been highly efficient in converting recovered possession off of the forecheck into shots. Per Sznajder’s analytics, the Kraken have generated almost 12 shots per 60 minutes in this fashion, fifth most in the league.
Even so, the offense has struggled to produce generally. The Kraken do not generate a strong volume of rush opportunities with their neutral zone play. Their forechecking creates good shot volume, but as will be shown in the next part, the shots the Kraken are creating in the offensive zone typically are lower value shots from near the blue line. And the Kraken simply do not have the offensive finishing skill in their skater group to regularly convert mediocre opportunities into goals.
Next: decoding Hakstol’s offensive zone scheme
In part 7 of the series I examine the plays the Kraken deploy to generate scoring chances when in full possession in the offensive zone.
We know it has been a big day in Seattle sports news (with the biggest news, of course, being the five-year contract extension for Jared McCann), but we are here to remind you that there is also a Seattle Kraken game against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday!
This is the SOH Liveblog for that game. We will update this article with highlights as the game goes on, so check back often!
Kraken at Maple Leafs
Pre-game
These teams played each other a few weeks ago at Climate Pledge Arena, and it did not go well for the Kraken. That night, Seattle got spanked 6-2, as Philipp Grubauer gave up three goals on 11 shots and was lifted after the first period.
That first meeting between these clubs was one of just a handful of times the Kraken have looked outclassed this season, as they were dominated from the drop of the puck.
The high-flying Leafs have struggled a bit, lately. They have had a middling 5-4-1 record over the last 10 games, and their goaltending has been called into question regularly by the rabid Toronto fanbase and media. Jack Campbell—who was such a huge part of this team’s success earlier in the season—has faltered lately with four straight games under a .900 save percentage, allowing 19 goals in that stretch. Campbell will get the nod Tuesday.
At the other end of the success spectrum, Auston Matthews has continued to tear up the NHL and became the first player in the league to hit the 40-goal plateau Monday against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Leafs are on the second of back-to-backs after a 5-4 win Monday in Columbus.
Kraken lineup
Here are the Seattle Kraken lines against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Looks like Haydn Fleury, Will Borgen, and Ryan Donato are scratches once again.
The latest
Prior to the game, Wayne Simmonds was presented with a silver stick for playing in his 1,000th career game on the same night that Mark Giordano also hit that milestone.
Joonas Donskoi took a tripping penalty at 2:46, giving Toronto’s top-ranked power play its first opportunity of the game. It did not take long for the lethal unit to strike. Morgan Reilly passed across to William Nylander, who went through the seam to Matthews. Matthews fired before Grubauer could get set, and just like that, it was 1-0 at 3:18.
Make it 41 goals on the season for Auston Matthews. He can beat goaltenders so many different ways which just makes him /that/ much more dangerous. pic.twitter.com/ZaKIME471I
The Kraken responded quickly. 2:03 of game time elapsed before Carson Soucy scored his seventh goal of the season to set a career high. He shot from the point and hit Mason Appleton in front of the net. The puck squirted back out to Soucy, who got a second shot away before Campbell could fully recover from the initial try that didn’t get through. With that, it was 1-1 at 5:21.
The early maelstrom of goals continued when TJ Brodie sent a stretch pass to Pierre Engvall at the Kraken blue line. The quick-up pass broke down Seattle’s neutral zone coverage and allowed John Tavares to sneak into the offensive zone untouched. Engvall hit Tavares with a little touch pass, and Tavares scored off a partial breakaway to make it 2-1.
Seattle was closing in on killing off a Jeremy Lauzon tripping penalty, but with just a few seconds left in the Toronto power play, Mark Giordano shot a puck over the glass from the Kraken defensive zone and was called for delay of game. With nearly four consecutive minutes of zone time, the elite Leafs power play did eventually break through for the second time. Nylander shot from the right hashmark, and with Tavares creating some confusion in front, the puck just squeezed through Grubauer to make it 3-1.
The Kraken answered once again with a pretty passing play through the neutral zone. Marcus Johansson made an outlet pass to Jordan Eberle in the neutral zone, then sprinted up the ice to get in on the rush. Eberle passed to Alex Wennberg, who passed back to Johansson, who then went right back to Wennberg in the slot. Wennberg chipped it by Campbell and brought Seattle back within one with his third goal in four games.
Wennberg finishes off some pretty passing!
Alexander Wennberg brings #Seakraken back within one goal!
Giordano took his second penalty of the period, which made us think Seattle was really playing with fire. But on the Toronto power play, Jamie Oleksiak forced a turnover in Seattle’s zone and Yanni Gourde was off to the races with Colin Blackwell. On a two-on-one, Gourde passed to Blackwell, who put it home with a nice finish and leveled the score at 3-3.
Short-handed goal from Colin Blackwell, set up by Yanni Gourde. As @AlisonL's been saying, the Kraken are working to build up a power kill. pic.twitter.com/OLRU133B0M
The second period ended with the score level. The Leafs held a slight advantage in shots on goal through 40 minutes, but they had close to 62 percent of the shot quality.
Third period highlights
At 5:57 of the third period, Jeremy Lauzon blasted a shot from the right point. Jaden Schwartz got a piece of the puck and redirected it down ever so slightly. The change in direction was just enough to throw Campbell off the scent, and give Schwartz his first goal since returning from hand surgery.
The lead was short lived. Seconds after Grubauer had made an outstanding save, the Kraken gave the puck right back to the Maple Leafs. Michael Bunting raced in with Matthews and got it to the NHL’s leading goal scorer, who made a beautiful move to tie the score at 4-4.
Then, just 40 seconds later, with Soucy in the box for cross checking, Mitch Marner faked Joonas Donskoi out of his jock and scored through traffic to give the lead back to Toronto, 5-4.
The Seattle Kraken got their guy. On Tuesday the team announced that Jared McCann had signed a five-year contract extension that will pay him an average of $5 million per season. Barring a trade, the deal will keep McCann in Seattle through the 2026-27 season. It is the first contract extension ever to be signed by a Kraken player.
With an expanded role, McCann has had a breakout season in this inaugural Seattle campaign and leads the team in both goals (21) and points (33). His 21 goals represent a career high for him, and the team still has 23 games left to play, so his stats could certainly increase before the end of the season.
His impressive year made some wonder if McCann and his agent, Joe Resnick, would be looking for the type of deal that could cause negotiations to drag on. But the 25-year-old forward continued to indicate that he was very happy with Seattle and the opportunities he was getting.
General manager Ron Francis said there had been conversations about an extension between the team and Resnick throughout the season and that the dialogue picked up steam just before the All-Star break. “Working with Joe and Jared was never contentious,” Francis said Tuesday. “It was always having the open, honest discussions, and getting to the point we felt that both sides were covered with the deal. That’s why it got done the way that it did.”
The extension shows that the Kraken view McCann as part of their core as they continue to build out the franchise. “It sends a message,” Francis said. “Certainly in Jared’s case, he’s excited to be in Seattle, excited—as a lot of our players are—the way the ownership and management treats the players. [They’re] excited about the passionate fanbase and the city itself and want to be here as we build this thing and become more and more successful.”
McCann himself seems thrilled to have some security. “It’s a lot of pressure off my shoulders,” McCann said of the extension. “I can just focus on playing hockey, and obviously it’s a huge honor to get that deal and to be a part of this for the future.”
Sound Of Hockey reaction
We’ve seen fans in the Kraken Twittersphere calling on Francis to get a deal done with McCann, who has proven to be arguably the best find of the entire Expansion Draft. What sometimes gets lost, though, is that a player going to RFA status has very few options, and the team holds most of the leverage in those scenarios. With the very few options available to a player in RFA status, we knew a McCann extension would get done at some point. The question was always simply about the term and money needed to complete the transaction.
We also believed from talking to McCann on several occasions that he was not interested in a knockdown, drag-out type of negotiation. He always seemed to be very happy in the Pacific Northwest and genuinely thankful to be getting consistent top-line minutes for the first time in his career.
As far as the number is concerned, five years at $5 million is a perfect landing spot. It shows a long-term commitment by the club but doesn’t hamstring Francis or preclude him from going after high-end free agents in the offseason. From McCann’s point of view, it gives him the security that has been lacking in his career—this is technically his fifth NHL organization, though he never played a game for Toronto—and is a nice, deserved raise from the $2.94 million AAV that his current contract is paying him.
We love this deal, we love this player, and we are pleased that this got done well in advance of any possible offseason drama.
