The Seattle Kraken have begun their oddly very publicized internal audit, so the guys discuss what that means and share why they think it’s all a bit overblown.
Plus, a discussion on whether the team should keep its UFA’s before heading Down on the Farm.
Other segments include Weekly One-Timers and What’s Good?
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Welcome to our annual data-driven analysis of the top prospects in the 2026 NHL Draft. We’re digging deep, giving you a watchlist of 200 first-time eligible and 100 re-entry skaters to follow as the draft approaches.
The watchlist is not a traditional scouting assessment of prospects. Instead, as in years past, we built our watchlist using public, quantifiable data only. Think of it as a supplement to the scouting and analytical work on prospects being published by other sources like Elite Prospects or NHL Central Scouting.
The watchlist can be revealing in its areas of agreement or disagreement with the work of traditional scouting services. But it is not a replacement for the valuable work of scouts. There may be reasons to prefer a prospect listed lower on the watchlist over one listed higher. Indeed, I have formed some of my own subjective preferences. I may have the opportunity to return to some of those assessments as the draft season progresses, but those preferences are not reflected here.
This is a skater-only list for now—though it remains a priority to revisit and develop a satisfactory method to integrate goalies.
What does our data-only analysis involve? As I have done in years past when looking at NHL Draft prospects (or NHL-affiliated prospects), I have organized this player list by “Data Score”—a rough metric we came up with here at Sound Of Hockey. This season’s approach includes new steps that I believe will be valuable in helping identify top players.
Data Score begins with the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (“NHLe”). NHLe is a method for comparing the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2025-26 season data.
From there, as before, I make adjustments based on factors known to be linked to prospect success rates: (1) position, (2) height, (3) age, and (4) re-draft status. I also make a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues. (This is based on public research by Chace McCallum that was taken down when he started working for an NHL team.)
What’s new this year? In contrast with years past, when I looked at only a one-year sample to create this list, this time I applied this NHLe to multiple years of scoring data for these prospects—specifically the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. More recent play is given more weight. I believe this is an important upgrade to the approach.
I also adjusted the underlying point-rate totals used in the process to give less weight to assists relative to goals. This is based on public research suggesting goal scoring is more predictive of future point production than assist totals, even primary assists.
The full watchlist, which will be made available to Sound Of Hockey Patreon members shortly, covers approximately 12,000 skaters.
Most notable to me is just how much agreement you can find between scouting assessments and “Data Score.” If I presented the top 32 as a first-round scouting rank, it would raise questions—but perhaps not as many as you might think.
Beyond that, the most notable thing is that Data Score sees two elite players at the top of the 2026 NHL Draft: Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. Despite being older draft-eligible prospects with only adequate height, their scoring production puts them in a different tier.
They arrived at this tier in two different ways, though. Gavin McKenna reached an elite level earlier (2.3 points per CHL game in 2024-25) and essentially maintained his production against elevated NCAA competition (1.4 points per NCAA game in 2025-26). Ivar Stenberg was quite good in the lower junior leagues in 2024-25, but his arrow pointed up in a big way in his draft season when he posted almost 0.8 points per game in the SHL. This is the third-most ever by a draft-eligible SHL prospect and the best single statistical season in the two-year sample I assembled for this project.
There is a bit of a gap after the top two prospects. Players like Porter Martone or Jake O’Brien from the 2025 NHL Draft would have been clear-cut second-tier prospects if they were eligible this season. Instead, defensemen Chase Reid and Carson Carels are the next players on the list. In an average-or-better draft, Reid and Carels may be closer to top-10 prospects than top-five candidates, but both bring strong offensive profiles that project to first-pair NHL futures.
Keep an eye on Nikita Klepov and J.P. Hurlbert as two forwards who could be selected higher than we might think—in the mold of Ben Kindel in the 2025 NHL Draft. As was the case with Kindel, it only takes one team to make a bet on their strong junior scoring profiles.
Wyatt Cullen and Ethan Belchetz are two bigger forwards who could make a push toward the top of the 2026 NHL Draft as well. They bring strong physical traits and “good-enough” data to forge a top-10 consensus in a draft room.
At the other end of the spectrum, if there is one player in the top 10 of the watchlist I’d suspect will linger toward the end of Round 1 (or later), it would be Ryan Roobroeck. Despite being strong overall, his equivalency is actually trending in the wrong direction while scouts question his engagement and consistency.
Evan Jardine is a USHL forward who likely won’t be drafted until the later rounds, but will probably score as a college player next season, and everyone will question how he slipped through the cracks. (In other words, Jardine could be this year’s version of Ethan Wyttenbach, who was No. 11 on last year’s watchlist but lingered until pick No. 144 in the 2025 NHL Draft before going on to post huge scoring numbers in college.)
Undersized, offense-first defensemen top the re-draft pool. Jonas Woo, Tomas Galvas, and Oliwer Sjöström all have strong arguments to be late-round flyers. Everett Silvertip Matias Vanhanen (who is a very young re-draft player) has a strong chance to be one of the first re-entry candidates off the board.
When comparing with our preseason list, we see significant consistency at the top. 18 of the top 32 players on our final list were also ranked within the top 32 before the season began. Almost all the rest were listed in the second- to third-round range: 31 of the 32 skaters ranked within the top 82 of our preseason list. Only QMJHL blueliner Tommy Bleyl played himself into first-round consideration from a more obscure preseason position.
We did see a few players experience significant falls from our preseason list, however, due to underwhelming draft seasons. Olivers Murnieks is a notable example. He stood at No. 7 on our preseason list but fell to No. 86 among first-eligible skaters on our final list.
How much can you learn about likely draft projection from a player’s placement on the watchlist? As you might expect, it’s not perfect. There are players that scouts “like” (or “dislike”) for reasons other than the quantifiable factors included in Data Score.
That said, it is again remarkable how much you can predict based on public data alone. Looking back at the top 32 first-time eligible prospects on our 2025 data-only watchlist, 23 went in the first round, five more went in the second or third round, and all 32 were drafted.
The run of top prospects playing junior hockey in the Pacific Northwest has not broken yet. No. 33-ranked Mathis Preston played for the Spokane Chiefs and Vancouver Giants this season. No. 52-ranked Chase Harrington played for the Chiefs as well. No. 12-ranked defenseman Ryan Lin played for the Giants, and No. 3-ranked defenseman Carson Carels played for the Prince George Cougars. Everett’s Vanhanen may be the first Puget Sound-area player selected.
Looking at the league landscape, seven of our top-32 first-time eligible prospects played their draft seasons in the OHL, the most of any league. The WHL and USHL were tied for second with six such prospects each. After that, the NCAA had four players, and the QMJHL had three.
* * *
Do you have any questions? Reach out to us in the comments below or on Twitter/X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.
Header photo of J.P. Hurlbert taken by Evan Morud, courtesy of the Everett Silvertips.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Earlier in the season, we compared Seattle Kraken data from the team’s winning streaks and losing streaks. Now that the season is over, I wanted to revisit that analysis and break the season into three buckets.
The buckets are not equal in games played, but they are big enough sample sizes to learn about the differences in how the team was performing during those times. Those periods also make sense to use for this analysis, because the Kraken had very different success rates in each stretch.
The opening stretch featured a team that showed promise, started hot, then went ice cold.
Through the first 23 games of the season, the Kraken were 11-6-6. That put them second in the Pacific Division and 10th overall in the league. That stretch carried them to Thanksgiving, Nov. 27, 2025.
At the time, it looked like new head coach Lane Lambert’s system was working. The Kraken were competing and winning in the first quarter of the season.
Then, after Turkey Day, the season turned. Seattle went 1-8-0 and dropped from 10th in the league to 31st.
Just when many were counting the Kraken out, they became the hottest team in the Pacific Division before the Olympic break.
Seattle went 15-6-3 and surged back into the playoff conversation. The Kraken had the fourth-best record in the NHL during this stretch.
With a little more than two-thirds of the season complete, it looked like the Kraken had found their way. Outside of the 1-8-0 stretch, Seattle had played 47 games at a .649 points percentage.
The Kraken headed into the break full of confidence and sitting third in the Pacific Division.
After the break, the Kraken could not find a shred of confidence. They free-fell out of the playoff picture.
Seattle went 7-17-2, which ranked 31st in the league during this stretch. The only team worse was the Toronto Maple Leafs, who finished one spot ahead of the Kraken in the NHL Draft Lottery odds and eventually won the first overall pick.
The Kraken finished 27th in the NHL standings and landed the seventh overall pick in the upcoming draft.
The Kraken used a system that relied heavily on defensive structure. That came at the cost of offense, but during the pre-break stretch, Seattle found the best balance of the season.
The Kraken scored 3.42 goals per game during that run, their highest mark of the three buckets. They also had their best defensive results, allowing 2.58 goals per game.
During their worst stretch, the post-break run, the Kraken generated their lowest expected goals for at 2.58 per game. Scoring dipped, but the bigger issue came at the other end.
Seattle allowed a season-high 3.69 goals per game after the break. That was significantly higher than its expected goals against of 3.17, suggesting the defensive structure and goaltending both struggled.
One data point stands out. During the pre-break run, Seattle had its highest xGA of the season at 3.22. But the Kraken allowed only 2.58 goals per game, indicating they received elevated goaltending during that stretch.
The team goaltending numbers aligned closely with Seattle’s win-loss record in each bucket.
During the pre-break stretch, when the Kraken were winning, goaltending hit a season high in both save percentage (.915) and goals saved above expected (15.24).
The opposite was true during the post-break stretch. Seattle’s save percentage dropped to .877, and its goals saved above expected fell to -13.65. Both were season lows.
If you pulled the numbers from the scoring-first chart, they would look almost identical to the team save percentage chart above.
More often than not, teams that score first go on to win the game. The Kraken scored first in 41 games, exactly half of their season, and went 24-13-4 in those games.
Overall, that sounds like a decent record. It also highlights the importance of scoring first. The issue came after the Olympic break. Seattle had a losing record when scoring first, even though it scored first exactly half the time in each bucket.
That shows the Kraken had a hard time protecting leads. It becomes even clearer when looking at games where the Kraken held a two-goal lead at any point.
Seattle won 23 straight games when holding a two-goal lead to start the season. But in the final 20 games, the Kraken held a two-goal lead seven times and went just 4-2-1. One of those wins came in overtime.
Game strategy can change depending on whether a team is leading, tied, or trailing.
With Seattle’s defensive strategy, the Kraken often seemed comfortable playing with the game tied. But after the break, there was a dramatic uptick in the amount of time spent trailing.
That forced Seattle to chase offense. When teams chase offense, defensive breakdowns tend to follow, which helps explain why Seattle’s goals against jumped after the break.
Looking at shot volume, it is interesting that the Kraken were at their best when taking fewer shots.
During the pre-break stretch, when Seattle won the most games, the Kraken averaged only 24.9 shots on goal and 50.1 shot attempts per game. They also allowed their most shots against during this span, which again points to how important goaltending was during that run.
Here is a breakdown of expected goals from shots from the low-, medium-, and high-danger areas.
Overall, the Kraken had a lower offensive xG than their opponents in each bucket. It is hard to win consistently over a full season when the opponent generates more expected offense.
Finally, let’s look at special teams.
The penalty kill finished 31st in the NHL. Technically, it could have been worse, but not by much. There is far more room to improve in the positive direction next season.
John Barr created a 10-game moving average of the penalty kill that can be viewed here.
The power play finished 21st in the NHL, solidly in the bottom half of the league.
The biggest takeaway is that Seattle’s power-play xG per 60 dropped to its lowest total during the third of the three buckets at 5.44. To rub salt in the wound, the Kraken scored only 2.99 goals per 60.
Watching the games live, it seemed like the Kraken started taking more shots from the point after the Olympic break. Here is a heatmap of the power-play shots in each bucket.
At first glance, the intent looks similar in each bucket. The Kraken wanted to get the puck to the net front, where most of their shots came from. They also generated shots from the wings near both face-off dots.
I added an orange line to the heatmap, 10 feet from the blue line, and counted the number of shots from that area in each bucket.
There are two takeaways:
That could indicate a change in strategy, with the Kraken shooting from everywhere to get pucks to the front of the net. But it also felt like they were rushing shots.
For comparison, Kraken opponents took only 4.8 percent of their power-play shots from the point against Seattle’s penalty kill. It should be noted that the special teams data only looks at 5-on-4 power-play situations and 4-on-5 penalty-kill situations.
The Kraken had a hot-and-cold season where goaltending, defense, and offense all had to align for a full 60 minutes to earn a win.
The team had sustained stretches where that formula worked. But the lows also showed Seattle does not have enough offensive firepower to consistently compete when it falls behind.
The finish to the season is not all bad. The Kraken are set to get their fifth top-10 pick in the NHL Draft on June 26.
Meanwhile, although the Kraken are done for the season, the Coachella Valley Firebirds continue to amaze. They are advancing to the AHL Pacific Division Finals against the Colorado Eagles, giving Seattle’s prospect pool more valuable playoff experience.
All data was sourced from MoneyPuck.com and the NHL play-by-play data.
Feel free to leave a comment below and continue the conversation.
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
We have ourselves a series. After falling 4-2 to the Prince Albert Raiders in Game 1 of the WHL Finals on Friday night, the Everett Silvertips bounced back in a huge way Saturday, beating the Raiders 6-2 to tie the series at one game apiece.
It wasn’t the start to the series the Silvertips wanted in the first game. After an early goal from Carter Bear in the first period, the offense fell flat and gave in to a steady and fast Raiders attack. Silvertips alternate captain Landon DuPont liked the pushback in the third period, but it proved to be too little, too late.
“It was a good push,” DuPont said following Game 1. “We hadn’t been in a situation like that in a while, and I think we handled it well. Just a tick off.”
Game 2 featured many of the same chances for the Silvertips to convert, but this time they finally found the back of the net, sending Angel of the Winds Arena into a frenzy.
Here are Three (brief) Takeaways from Games 1 and 2 of the WHL Finals.
In Game 1, space was tighter for the Silvertips than what they grew accustomed to in their first two playoff series. The Raiders got better as the game went on, focusing on disrupting zone entries and trying to keep pucks to the outside.
The Tips got opportunities to strike, but the Raiders played tight defense, and goalie Michal Orsulak was lights out the whole evening, stopping 39 of 41 Everett shots.
But in Game 2, it was attack, attack, attack from the start for Everett. The Tips were ready to pounce on their chances from the moment the puck dropped in the first period.
Silvertips head coach Steve Hamilton liked the offensive structure the Tips played with on Saturday.
“It was definitely by design what we were trying to accomplish tonight,” Hamilton said. “There was a directness and probably a much better net presence than we had 24 hours earlier.”
The top line for Everett rose to the occasion this weekend. Matias Vanhanen had one assist, while Kraken prospect Julius Miettinen scored two goals and added four assists in the two games.
But what a couple of games from Bear, too. With three goals in two games, the Detroit Red Wings prospect hounded pucks all weekend and was involved in every play after the whistle.
Meanwhile, on the back end, mitigating a guy like Braeden Cootes takes a concerted effort, but Silvertips defensemen were quick to keep sticks and bodies in front of him and the goal.
As the series shifts to Prince Albert for the next three games, it’s pivotal the Silvertips look at how they utilized space in Game 2 and remain active on pucks in a hostile environment like Art Hauser Centre.
The Silvertips have done solid work putting bodies in shooting lanes. But when pucks do find their way through, the play of goalie Anders Miller has been spectacular throughout the WHL playoffs. With a .932 playoff save percentage, he continued his strong run through the first two games of the finals by stopping 59 of 64 shots faced across the two games.
What Hamilton likes about Miller’s game is his ability to slow things down and let the game come to him.
“He’s got a calm to his game right now that we all feel good about,” Hamilton said. “He is really good at keeping things quiet when they need to be. Catching a puck, swallowing it up, get a face-off, reset. That’s a key attribute to a goaltender. You want the play to die when it hits him, and I think he’s done an excellent job at knowing when to just put an end to it.”
This series is now a best-of-5, though home ice now belongs to the Raiders with Game 3 set for Tuesday night in P.A.
As a reminder, the series is following the 2-3-2 format, so Games 3 through 5 will be in Prince Albert and, if necessary, Games 6 and 7 will return to Angel of the Winds Arena.
Header courtesy of Evan Morud and the Everett Silvertips.
Welcome to “Down on the Farm,” your weekly Seattle Kraken prospects update. In this week’s column, we’ll update you on where the Firebirds stand in the Calder Cup playoffs, how Seattle Kraken prospects are faring elsewhere in their postseasons, and a big-time prospect turning pro. After that, we’ll have notes and video from around the Kraken system and the Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week, as always.
In the weeks ahead, we’ll be bridging into offseason mode, which will include more video deep dives but could also include answers to your questions. So, if you have a Seattle Kraken prospect-related question you’d like to see featured in a future column or mailbag, drop us a note below or on X or BlueSky at @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Since our last update, the Firebirds and their fans have endured a roller-coaster experience in Coachella Valley’s second-round matchup against Ontario. The Firebirds scored first in Game 2 in Ontario last Friday, and it seemed like the good times were rolling. However, Ontario then scored five straight goals, including three in the third period. The 5–1 loss leveled the series at a game apiece.
Game 3 on Tuesday back home in Coachella Valley was a similar story. The Firebirds took the lead on a Jani Nyman first-period goal but were held scoreless the rest of the way and dropped the contest 2–1. In a five-game series, Coachella Valley was on the brink of elimination again.
In Game 4 on Thursday, things were looking grim when Ontario took the lead less than six minutes into the game. This time, though, the Firebirds were able to flip the script, scoring four goals on NHL veteran Phoenix Copley before adding two empty-netters to secure a 6–2 victory.
Mitchell Stephens with a snipe. 🔥@Firebirds | #ONTvsCV | #CalderCup | @FloHockey
— American Hockey League (@TheAHL) May 8, 2026
📺💻📲: https://t.co/xslzIvekI0 pic.twitter.com/P9GgZWEr0O
So far this season, the Firebirds have played three elimination games and won them all. A ticket to the Pacific Division Finals awaits if the Firebirds can make it four for four in Game 5. Puck drop is at 6:00 p.m. PDT on Saturday at Toyota Arena in Ontario. The game will stream live on FloHockey.
Regardless of the outcome, the Firebirds have put together an impressive season as the youngest team in the AHL. Reaching the playoffs was achievement enough, but they defeated Bakersfield and are now giving the veteran-laden, Pacific Division-best Ontario Reign all they can handle in the second round.
On the individual side, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard continues to lead the AHL playoffs in goals (five) and total points (nine). Jani Nyman is tied for third in points (seven), followed closely by Jagger Firkus (six). No goalie has started more playoff games than Nikke Kokko, with seven. (Victor Ostman saw action only once in relief in the Bakersfield series.)
If you missed it, the NHL Draft Lottery took place earlier this week. The Kraken did not win, instead moving down one slot to No. 7 overall. Read up on how the lottery works and our way-too-early look at who the Kraken may select with the seventh pick. We’ll return with a lot more Kraken-specific and league-wide draft analysis in the weeks ahead.
2026 NHL Draft: 50 prospects in 50 Days
— Deep Sea Hockey (@DeepSeaHockey) May 6, 2026
Follow along as we highlight a new prospect each day, sharing facts and video.
Since the final 2026 Sound Of Hockey Big Board will not arrive until a couple weeks before the draft, we'll follow our midseason order.https://t.co/B5J152ToSD
No Kraken-drafted player has found more team success than 2023 sixth-round pick Zeb Forsfjäll. In the three intervening years playing top-tier professional hockey with Skellefteå AIK of the SHL, the 5-foot-9 checking forward has been an active contributor to two championships. Skellefteå sealed its most recent title last Saturday with a comeback 7–3 win over Rögle.
Skellefteå har nu gjort 4(!) raka mål och vänt 0-2 till 4-2! pic.twitter.com/U9HSla9WHu
— SHL.se (@SHLse) May 2, 2026
And then there were two. The Brantford Bulldogs (Jake O’Brien) and Windsor Spitfires (Nathan Villeneuve and Jakub Fibigr) were both eliminated in the penultimate round of the OHL playoffs, ending their seasons — and likely the CHL careers of all three Kraken prospects involved.
In the WHL, Julius Miettinen and the top-seeded Everett Silvertips will take on the Prince Albert Raiders in the WHL Championship. Sound Of Hockey‘s Cameron Riggers has a full preview of that series here.
Julius Miettinen has 10 goals and 8 assists in 13 WHL playoff games so far. His 10 goals are the most in the WHL playoffs (tied with linemate Matias Vanhanen), and his 18 total points are fourth-most. His plus-15 rating is third-best in the playoffs.
Fri, May 8 – Prince Albert at Everett – 7:00 pm PDT – Angel of the Winds Arena
Sat, May 9 – Prince Albert at Everett – 6:00 pm PDT – Angel of the Winds Arena
Tue, May 12 – Everett at Prince Albert – 6:30 pm PDT – Art Hauser Centre
Wed, May 13 – Everett at Prince Albert – 6:30 pm PDT – Art Hauser Centre
Fri, May 15 – Everett at Prince Albert – 6:30 pm PDT – Art Hauser Centre*
Sun, May 17 – Prince Albert at Everett – 7:00 pm PDT – Angel of the Winds Arena*
Mon, May 18 – Prince Albert at Everett – 7:00 pm PDT – Angel of the Winds Arena*
*If necessary
All games are available to stream free on Victory+.
Over in the QMJHL, the Chicoutimi Saguenéens and Alexis Bernier reached the QMJHL Finals against the Moncton Wildcats. Two of the top teams in the CHL, this figures to be a difficult, long series.
For Bernier, this is his second chance in the championship round, having previously reached the final with the Baie-Comeau Drakkar in 2024. Bernier has five points in 14 playoff games. His plus-10 rating is tied for sixth-best in the QMJHL playoffs.
Fri, May 8 – Chicoutimi at Moncton – 3:00 pm PDT – Centre Avenir
Sat, May 9 – Chicoutimi at Moncton – 3:00 pm PDT – Centre Avenir
Tue, May 12 – Moncton at Chicoutimi – 4:00 pm PDT – Centre Georges-Vézina
Wed, May 13 – Moncton at Chicoutimi – 4:00 pm PDT – Centre Georges-Vézina
Fri, May 15 – Chicoutimi at Moncton – 3:00 pm PDT – Centre Avenir*
Sun, May 17 – Moncton at Chicoutimi – 4:00 pm PDT – Centre Georges-Vézina*
Tue, May 19 – Chicoutimi at Moncton – 3:00 pm PDT – Centre Avenir*
*If necessary
All games are available to stream on FloHockey.
As mentioned above, the Brantford Bulldogs bowed out of the OHL playoffs against the Barrie Colts last week. It was a surprising result for a stacked Bulldogs team that led the series three games to one before dropping three games in a row.
With the expectation that 19-year-old first-round picks out of the CHL will be eligible to play in the AHL next season, this likely marks the end of O’Brien’s OHL career. If this is it, he left an indelible mark on the Bulldogs, holding the team’s all-time points record and serving as the team’s captain during the 2025–26 season.
The Kraken have since reassigned O’Brien to the Coachella Valley Firebirds. It remains to be seen whether he will have the opportunity to play during this playoff run. The odds would seem to increase if the Firebirds advance to the Pacific Division Finals.
As Bernier and the Saguenéens continue their push for a QMJHL championship and Memorial Cup, the player faces another important bit of business. Bernier, a 2024 third-round pick, remains unsigned. With one footnote, if Bernier does not sign with the Kraken by June 1, 2026, Seattle will lose his signing rights, and Bernier will re-enter the 2026 NHL Draft.
The one wrinkle is that Seattle would retain his signing rights if Bernier commits to playing for a college team for the 2026–27 season before June 1. I have not yet seen any reporting suggesting that this is a possibility for the young blue-liner. Important decisions await.
The Seattle Kraken have still made only one trade involving a drafted prospect. On Sept. 4, 2025, the Kraken sent Tucker Robertson to the Flyers in exchange for J.R. Avon — a rare one-for-one prospect “challenge” trade and an exchange of close friends and former OHL teammates.
The trade has worked out well for both sides. Robertson set professional career highs in games played, goals, and assists with Lehigh Valley. Over in Palm Desert, Avon set career-high scoring totals too, despite missing a significant portion of the season with an injury. Avon’s season has hit its high-water mark in the Pacific Division Semifinals with three goals in four games, including the crucial game-tying goal in Game 4 on Thursday.
J.R. AVON THE MAN YOU ARE!!!
— x – Coachella Valley Firebirds (@Firebirds) May 8, 2026
1-1 pic.twitter.com/uIkC1uRRlC
Avon’s recent postseason work makes him your Sound Of Hockey Prospect of the Week. Avon is a pending restricted free agent after the season.
4 wins: Jake O’Brien
3 wins: Jagger Firkus, Kim Saarinen, Julius Miettinen, Oscar Fisker Mølgaard
2 wins: Clarke Caswell, Logan Morrison, Nathan Villeneuve, Semyon Vyazovoi
1 win: J.R. Avon, Alexis Bernier, Barrett Hall, Ollie Josephson, Tyson Jugnauth, Nikke Kokko, Victor Ostman, Zaccharya Wisdom
Nordmark is a potential first-round pick, checking in at No. 23 on the midseason Big Board and No. 8 among international skaters on the final NHL Central Scouting list. The 6-foot-1 Nordmark has been a prolific producer for Sweden’s international teams, though he was uncharacteristically quiet at the recent U18 World Championship, recording only four points in six games. Scouts credit elite hands and offensive instincts as his calling card. On the other hand, scouts have raised significant concerns about his effort and consistency.
May 1, 2026: Firebirds advance in AHL playoffs, Kraken have sixth-best lottery odds on May 5
Apr. 11, 2026: Caswell to National Championship game, Saarinen to Coachella Valley
April 4, 2026: Kraken prospects to the Frozen Four, Firebirds face a rash of injuries
March 28, 2026: Kraken prospect playoff preview
March 21, 2026: Saarinen’s Liiga dominance, and the Kraken development track record
March 13, 2026: Kraken prospects mailbag – part 2
March 7, 2026: Seattle Kraken sign Ryden Evers, trade from draft asset depth
February 27, 2026: Rangers claim Tye Kartye, Kraken re-sign two forwards
February 20: 2026: David Goyette suspended for 20 games
February 13, 2026: Projecting NHL futures for Logan Morrison and Jagger Firkus
February 6, 2026: Seattle Kraken prospects midseason mailbag
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Channeling Glinda the Good to describe the aesthetics of the upcoming WHL Finals between the Everett Silvertips and Prince Albert Raiders: “It’s just— You’re green!”
This season has been historic on all fronts for the Everett Silvertips. Regular-season champions for the second year in a row and Western Conference champions for the third time ever, this team shattered pretty much everyone’s expectations for this season and has taken them to another level.
All of that is fine and dandy, but none of it will feel as vindicating to Silvertip Country unless it fills the trophy cabinet with the crown jewel that’s been eluding them all these years: the Ed Chynoweth Cup.
It’s safe to say that this is the best chance they’re going to get. So far this season, it’s all been cruise control. Going 57-8-3 in the regular season, winning 12 of 13 playoff games and 24 of 26 since their Central Division trip in February, just the also-green Prince Albert Raiders now stand in their way from glory.
This postseason has featured many Silvertips coming through in clutch moments. Need a tying goal? Shea Busch has you covered. What about a key shot block late in games? Brek Liske and Luke Vlooswyk are there to mitigate. Night after night during these playoffs, someone new is stepping up.
“When we are at our best, everybody contributes,” said head coach Steve Hamilton, who was recently awarded WHL Coach of the Year.
But what goes into shutting down a team like P.A., and how well does Everett match up with the Raiders?
With Game 1 of the best-of-7 series beginning Friday night at Angel of the Winds Arena, it’s time to take a look at how both teams got to this point, what to watch for in this series, and the keys to victory.
On Nov. 11, the Raiders rolled into AOTW Arena for their only matchup this season, beating an at-the-time ailing Silvertips team 4-1.
Something must’ve gotten into the Tips room on that night, because since then, the team has won 31 of its last 33 home games, including having a perfect 9-0 mark in the playoffs.
P.A. has been superb with a 26-6-2 home record of its own at Art Hauser Centre. It’s worth noting this series will follow the 2-3-2 format, with Games 3, 4, and, if necessary, 5 being played in P.A.
This is a big series for top-line players to showcase their pro-quality attributes. For Everett, Kraken prospect Julius Miettinen, Detroit Red Wings prospect Carter Bear, and Matias Vanhanen have been point-per-game players these playoffs for the Silvertips and have been tough for any team to match against.
The Raiders feature a heavy forechecking group led by Braeden Cootes, a first-round pick of the Vancouver Canucks and former Seattle Thunderbirds center. He’s joined up front by Aiden Oiring and Brayden Dube, all of whom have been point-per-game players in the playoffs for P.A.
And it’s a great series to get to know some stars of tomorrow. Raiders dynamic defenseman Daxon Rudolph is a top prospect eligible for the 2026 NHL Draft that leads the playoffs in points with nine goals and 14 assists.
Going against projected top pick in 2027 Landon DuPont on the Everett side, watching how these two groups work the blue line will be important in determining how the series flows.
One area of the ice that often goes unnoticed is the neutral zone, and the Silvertips are effective at making sure that when the puck is on their sticks in the middle area, it’s not there for long.
Against a team like Prince Albert that likes to create offense off rush chances, being efficient and tough to break through in the neutral zone will be crucial for Everett’s defensive units during this series, especially one missing the likes of captain Tarin Smith.
“You have to be really good on the lines. Pucks have to get out, pucks have to get in.” Hamilton said. “That’s probably the greatest area of transition. If you don’t manage pucks on entries then it becomes a short rink for the other team.”
Everett faced a heavy forecheck from the Kelowna Rockets, but possession was often limited, and the Tips were quick to get pucks away from their net.
Envisioning how P.A. will attack—crashing the zone and disrupting plays physically—the Silvertips should be cautious to avoid mistakes in their own zone.
The play of goaltender Anders Miller has been outstanding for the Silvertips during these playoffs, and it is bound to continue in the finals.
With an impressive .938 save percentage this postseason, the only concern with his play has been rebound control—juicy ones at that—against a heavy attacking team like P.A. It will be critical in keeping the series on a steady course for the Silvertips.
It’s been an up-and-down playoffs for Raiders goalie Michal Orsulak. With only an .898 save percentage this postseason, he has nights where he’ll go lights out—three shutouts in the playoffs—and others where he’ll allow four or more goals. For him, it’s about finding that consistent middle ground against a high-octane offense like Everett.
This is the biggest series in the history of these two franchises, and it’s make or break time.
In addition to being broadcast on Victory+, the series will also air on TSN across Canada, which means it will be one of the first times a large national audience will be exposed to DuPont and Rudolph.
So, who’s heading to Kelowna for the Memorial Cup? Will the Silvertips stay sound defensively and finally get over the hump, or will the Raiders attack be too much to handle?
Header Courtesy of Evan Morud and the Everett Silvertips
As you may know, the Sound Of Hockey recently started putting podcast episodes on YouTube. That led to a little screw up on this episode, in which the guys talked for 13 minutes before realizing they weren’t recording, then had to start over, which puts things in a funny state to start this show.
But…
The guys are also in a negative mood after the NHL Draft Lottery, which leads to lots of talk about the future of the Seattle Kraken.
Plus, a massive listener MAILBAG.
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Following the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, the Kraken will pick seventh when the 2026 NHL Draft begins on June 26. (How did Seattle end up here, and how does the Lottery even work? Check out our pre-Lottery primer.)
Last summer the Kraken selected Jake O’Brien at No. 8 overall–a pick that is looking like a sound investment so far. O’Brien has amassed 116 total points across 68 regular- and post-season OHL games.
Could the Kraken find a similar high-end producer this year? Or is this the season Seattle finally drafts a defenseman in the first round? There is a relatively high degree of uncertainty in the prospect hierarchy this year as we enter the final pre-draft stages. There is also some uncertainty in the Kraken’s approach with assistant general manager Ryan Jankowski overseeing the amateur scouting process for the first time.
Let’s take a look at how the first 10 picks of the draft could play out.
Games played: 35, Goals: 15, Assists: 36, Points/game: 1.46
NHL Central Scouting: 1 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 83.9
From the jaws of disastrous defeat—their top pick potentially going to the bitter rival Boston Bruins if the ping pong balls had bounced differently—the Maple Leafs snatched victory, winning the draft lottery.
With the departure of Mitch Marner, the Maple Leafs fell from a top-10 offense and power play in 2024–25 to a middling team in both categories in 2025–26. The Leafs need an injection of youth and scoring. Gavin McKenna is the most talented player in this draft and a perfect tonic for Toronto.
McKenna lit up the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers before enrolling at Penn State for his draft season. While he had some quiet stretches (and an off-ice incident) during his freshman year, McKenna finished the year with 51 points. This was the fourth-most among draft-eligible college players in the last 20 years, behind only Adam Fantilli, Macklin Celebrini, and Jack Eichel.
McKenna doesn’t have dynamic straight-line speed, but he can manipulate and beat defenses with his skating, possession, and passing in-zone. He creates space for himself and his teammates with the ease of a star.
Nitpicking his game, scouts fault him for floating around the perimeter too often. But even if he doesn’t improve in this area, the extremity of his skill level is unlikely to be denied. Mitch Marner or early-career Connor Bedard are reasonable comparisons, even if McKenna doesn’t fully hit his ceiling. He’s likely to slot into an NHL lineup right away.
Games played: 43, Goals: 11, Assists: 22, Points/game: 0.77
NHL Central Scouting: 1 (Euro Skaters) | Data Score: 79.9
The San Jose Sharks will again pick in the top two after winning the second lottery drawing. Ivar Stenberg is the no-brainer pick here. Internal depth charts should not matter. There have been rumblings from analysts that other players are in the mix at No. 2 overall, but I would be surprised. There is a clear drop-off in talent level after Stenberg.
The younger brother of 2023 first-round pick Otto Stenberg, Ivar projects as a first-line winger down the road and is the most NHL-ready forward in the draft to help a team this coming season. Even in a draft with McKenna, Stenberg is the hottest prospect entering the draft.
Stenberg’s 2025–26 season in the SHL was the single best statistical season in the two-year sample I assembled for thousands of draft-eligible players. Stenberg compiled the third-most points ever by a draft-eligible SHL player, outpacing players like Elias Lindholm, Nicklas Bäckström, Leo Carlsson, and William Eklund, just to name a few.
Scouts credit a strong offensive package of possession, shot, and passing skills, matched by high-end hockey IQ. While one might expect a weaker defensive or puck-battle profile, he receives strong grades in those areas as well.
San Jose could be a contender for the next decade.
Games played: 67, Goals: 29, Assists: 55, Points/game: 1.25
NHL Central Scouting: 6 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 44.5
After an exodus of impact skill, Vancouver needs high-end talent. The Canucks entered the draft with the best lottery odds and the best shot at acquiring one of the two impact wingers in this draft. Unfortunately, Vancouver fell out of the top two slots.
All is not lost, though. There have been murmurs from national insiders that Vancouver really likes center Caleb Malhotra, and with good reason. Malhotra may have done more to help himself in his draft season than any other player. Coming into the season, Tynan Lawrence was viewed as the consensus top center, and Malhotra was a bit of an afterthought coming off a mid-range season in the BCHL. His play was trending up in the BCHL playoffs for Chilliwack, though, and he took a giant leap in his draft season in the OHL with Brantford.
Malhotra flashes everything you could want from a center: defense, physicality, transition-driving possession ability, and passing and finishing skill in the offensive zone. Still, he has a limited CHL résumé. Will a team like Vancouver, drafting in the top five, trust a one-year evaluation over everything else? It’s a choice you’d rather make in the teens than that high. Still, the siren song of a center is strong.
Games played: 58, Goals: 20, Assists: 53, Points/game: 1.26
NHL Central Scouting: 3 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 55.7
Like Vancouver, Chicago falls two positions in the draft order, and the picks in front of them leave the Blackhawks in a tougher spot. I suspect Chicago would have liked to see any of the three top forwards still available here, but that’s not how the board falls for them. Part of me wonders if this could result in the first true surprise of the draft, with the Blackhawks reaching a bit further down the board for a forward.
Carson Carels would likely be viewed as the best player available. While the Blackhawks still have Kevin Korchinski coming as a left-shot defenseman, the right-side depth chart is a bigger logjam, with both Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel looking like long-term pieces.
Carels’ 1.26 points per game this season is the highest mark by a draft-eligible WHL defenseman since Scott Niedermayer in the 1990–91 season. The 6-foot-2 left-shot defenseman also has the advantage of youth (born June 23, 2008) compared with the other prospects listed here.
When I’ve watched Carels, I’ve formed the impression of a very solid all-around player. He can defend with physicality, initiate the rush, and flash skill in the offensive zone. But I tend to view his upside as closer to a first-pair defenseman rather than a true “No. 1.” Similar to Chase Reid, I don’t see physically dominant tools or top-end upside. And since I’d put Carels’ offense slightly behind Reid’s, he’s likely to rank slightly behind Reid as a top-10 prospect for me personally. It’s close though.
Games played: 45, Goals: 18, Assists: 30, Points/game: 1.07
NHL Central Scouting: 2 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 54.3
The Rangers could use an impact center in their system, but the supply just is not there at this point in the draft. Tynan Lawrence projects as a solid professional center, but his draft season has raised questions about whether he will bring above-average offense.
The Rangers could also use an impact, potential No. 1 defenseman, and that’s what Chase Reid could be. Reid stands out to me as the most dynamic offensive presence from the blue line in the draft. The 6-foot-2 righty is a strong skater and puck-driving catalyst. He has the offensive IQ and passing ability to lead a power-play unit and is progressing enough defensively to take difficult matchups.
On the other hand, Reid brings track record and upside questions. He has produced since he’s been in the OHL, but the résumé is short; he played 18 games of his 2024–25 season in the NAHL, which rarely produces high draft picks. And even if you’re buying the OHL production (I am), Reid may not have the pure physicality to dominate at the NHL level.
Reid gives the Rangers something they don’t have in their system and could be the heir to Adam Fox in the Big Apple.
Games played: 36, Goals: 6, Assists: 14, Points/game: 0.56
NHL Central Scouting: 4 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 48.8
The Calgary Flames have shown an inclination toward drafting strong “data” profiles in recent years. This raises the possibility that the Flames go a bit off the board here and pick a forward like J.P. Hurlbert, Nikita Klepov, or maybe Ethan Beltchetz—players a data-oriented team may value in this range of the draft, but most public analysts have in the 10-to-20 range.
Though defenseman Daxon Rudolph has often been discussed a little lower, he has arguably the best overall data profile remaining at this point. Ideally, the Flames may prefer to add a left-shot defenseman to their existing prospect pool, but the only left-shot defenseman who could go in this range, Alberts Smits, brings more immediate impact and a lower offensive ceiling—two factors that don’t fit the Flames’ timeline or needs.
All told, Keaton Verhoeff, another right-shot defenseman, may be the player who appeals here. If there was a threat to McKenna’s status as the No. 1 overall pick coming into the season, many thought it would be Verhoeff. Verhoeff, a 6-foot-4 right-handed blueliner, played his draft season at the University of North Dakota after a very strong run both offensively and defensively for the Victoria Royals in the WHL.
Verhoeff’s offensive production flattened a bit in the second half of his draft season, and his skating and four-way mobility drew some criticism from scouts. This has dropped him down most boards, but I wonder if some of this is unwarranted—the result of seeing the inevitable struggle at a higher competition level before the draft rather than after. Generally, I’m in favor of junior players pushing themselves like Verhoeff did, and it was not calamitous. He may be trending toward a solid pro rather than an All-Star at the moment, but there are still abundant offensive and physical tools to be excited about. He’s a worthy upside swing toward the end of the top 10 in this draft.
Games played: 38, Goals: 6, Assists: 7, Points/game: 0.34
NHL Central Scouting: 2 (Euro Skaters) | Data Score: 32.5
Ideally, the Kraken would prefer to see one of the second-tier players (Malhotra, Reid, or Carels) fall here, but that does not happen in this scenario.
If given the opportunity, I’m curious to see how the team values Verhoeff. The team has used first-round picks on other players with strong, early breakouts and arguably underwhelming draft seasons (like Shane Wright and Eduard Sale). That said, Verhoeff is off the board here too.
The Kraken would likely be best served seeing if they can move the pick to obtain a proven NHL player. If the Kraken do pick here, it could come down to two defensemen: Rudolph and Smits.
Smits is the inverse of Carels and Reid. I’ve seen him dominate peer-level competition at the World Juniors for Latvia. He has high-level pro experience in both the top German and Finnish leagues, and he has the physicality to impose his will on a game at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds. It’s easier to see a “No. 1 defenseman” outcome if everything clicks.
On the other hand, he does not have high-end offensive production, and I wonder if he will be afforded the opportunity to tap into it at this stage. He has already found so much success as a defense-oriented professional. Generally, I’m not a fan of taking a defensive defenseman high in the draft because the overall impact on NHL team success is limited compared with a dynamic offensive presence. That said, Smits appeals for the Kraken because he could step in (whether immediately or after some time in the AHL) to fill a void on the left side and on the penalty kill with Jamie Oleksiak’s projected departure.
If I were making the choices for Seattle, I’d also give consideration to Klepov or Hurlbert (likely leaning toward the former player). Lawrence would be a solid investment, but I don’t see a path for him as a middle-six center in this system. He could be the pick if other system centers are moving out in an offseason trade. Ethan Belchetz would bring size and potential. If Smits is the pick, I’d try to bring him to Coachella Valley to begin the year and give him as much power-play time as possible early in an effort to tap into latent offensive potential.
Games played: 18, Goals: 2, Assists: 5, Points/game: 0.39
NHL Central Scouting: 7 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 48.2
The next-best player still on the board is likely Rudolph, but teams tend to value forwards—particularly centers—in the top 10. I find it a little difficult to believe that the run of blue-liners would reach five straight.
Winnipeg could use a solid young center, and most would view Lawrence as the next-best pivot on the board. Lawrence is a strong skater with a good shot who does a lot of the “little things” well. He has strong hockey IQ and solid fundamentals, both offensively and defensively, at the center position. This gives him a relatively high “floor.” The question is: will he ever deliver the offensive impact to be a reliable top-six piece?
Games played: 40, Goals: 16, Assists: 29, Points/game: 1.13
NHL Central Scouting: 13 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 49.3
The Panthers hope this is the team’s one shot at a high-end pick in this Cup-contending window, so they take a swing on upside here. Wyatt Cullen has been a riser late in the draft process, and I would not be surprised if the helium continued to build as we approach the draft, making this pick look slightly less surprising than it might at first blush. The top player on this year’s U.S. National Team Development Program roster, Cullen led all players with 1.8 points per game at the 2026 U18 World Championship.
Belchetz, Klepov, and Hurlbert also have significant upside and could warrant a pick in this range. Viggo Bjork is an intriguing fit in Florida, too.
Games played: 68, Goals: 28, Assists: 50, Points/game: 1.15
NHL Central Scouting: 5 (NA Skaters) | Data Score: 51.1
Daxon Rudolph often gets lost in the shuffle when discussing the top defense prospects in this class, but he shouldn’t be. Rudolph brings excellent offensive production for a 6-foot-2 righty. His 78 points are the most by a draft-eligible WHL defenseman since the 2001–02 season (he played 10 more games than Carels). His 28 goals are the second-most in that same timeframe, behind only Carter Yakemchuk in 2023–24.
I’d put him behind Reid as an offensive player and behind Carels in terms of overall impact, but he projects as a top-four, two-way defenseman. The Predators have a strong system, but the one thing Nashville doesn’t have is a bankable right-shot defenseman. This makes Rudolph a good fit.
* * *
Who do you see the Kraken drafting at No. 7 overall? Leave your picks in the comments below or on X @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey or on BlueSky @deepseahockey or @soundofhockey.com.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
The first big milestone of the Seattle Kraken offseason comes Tuesday evening with the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, which will be televised on ESPN in the United States starting at 4:00 pm PT. As was the case last year, the Lottery will be broadcast “live,” with the draft order revealed to teams and fans in real time.
The Lottery sets the order of the top 16 picks of the first round of the NHL Draft. For the second straight year, the Kraken enter the Lottery in sixth position and with the sixth-highest odds to move up to the No. 1 overall pick.
How does the Lottery work? How did Seattle end up with the sixth-best Lottery odds? Why does the Lottery matter so much for Seattle? And who could be there when the Kraken pick? Let’s dig into those questions and more in this 2026 NHL Draft preview.
The plan is to return after the Lottery with quick thoughts on a few potential draft candidates once the Kraken pick is set. Beyond that, we also have our annual 2026 NHL Draft “data-only watchlist” coming soon. (Check out the preseason version here.) Closer to the draft, we’ll have the Sound Of Hockey Big Board. (Check out the mid-season version here.) So, keep it tuned to Sound Of Hockey for your continuing 2026 NHL Draft coverage.
The NHL Draft’s default selection rule places teams in reverse order of the final regular-season standings, with “ties” broken in the same manner as they would be for playoff qualification.
The 16 teams that fail to qualify for the NHL playoffs are assigned weighted Lottery odds based on the reverse standings order. Teams are then assigned a portion of 1,000 four-number combinations based on their Lottery odds. (See the full list here.) In other words, the team with the fewest standings points has the best Lottery odds and the most four-number combinations, the team with the second-fewest standings points has the second-best Lottery odds and the second-most number combinations, and so forth.
The NHL Draft Lottery then utilizes 14 ping pong balls, which are placed into a machine that randomizes them and releases four sequentially.
There are two drawings. The team with the four-digit combination corresponding to the sequence of the first drawing “wins” the Lottery. “Winning” means that the team moves up as many as 10 spots in the selection order. If the team finished in the bottom 11 in the standings, it moves to the No. 1 overall pick.
If the “winning” team finished 12th to 16th from last in the standings, then it does not move to No. 1, but instead only moves up the maximum 10 selections. For example, if the No. 13 team “wins” the first drawing, it moves up to the No. 3 pick.
The process is then repeated a second time, with the only difference being that in this second draw, teams can only move up as high as the No. 2 overall pick. If the team that “won” the first drawing wins again, there is a redraw until a different team wins. (In the rare circumstance that the No. 12 team “wins” the first Lottery draw and moves up to the No. 2 overall spot, this second draw can move a team up only as high as the No. 3 pick.)
After the second draw is completed, the remaining teams are then slotted based on the default order. Accordingly, no team can “fall” more than two draft spots in the Lottery. For example, the team with the best Lottery odds can only move down as far as the No. 3 pick. (The Kraken can only move down as far as the No. 8 pick.)
For those who want to follow the NHL Draft Lottery interactively, PuckPedia has an online tool where you can input the ping pong ball numbers as they are drawn and generate live odds for each team prevailing. That said, I presume ESPN and other networks will have a similar display on their broadcasts.
The Lottery is meant to decrease the unintended anti-competitive incentives that result when bad teams are given the best draft picks—particularly in a sport where a single superstar can make a big difference.
Of course, we’d be naive to think the incentive to “tank” for a better draft pick doesn’t still exist, even with the NHL Draft Lottery. But under the Lottery system, the “worst” team in the league has only a 25.5 percent chance of drafting first overall rather than 100 percent.
In a draft with a singular superstar, this could make a big difference in the behavior of NHL front offices. The system attempts to strike a balance between giving weaker teams a chance at the best talent while maintaining the integrity of competition.
The Seattle Kraken finished the 2025–26 NHL regular season with 79 points—a three-point improvement on last season’s results, but 21 points short of the 2022–23 playoff campaign. After an offseason in which the team turned over most of the coaching staff and expressed optimism about returning to the playoffs, the team’s performance “disappointed,” particularly down the stretch.
Seattle’s point total was the sixth-lowest in the NHL. As calculated by Tankathon, Seattle’s odds of picking at any given selection, and each NHL team’s odds of selecting No. 1 overall, are as follows:
In other words, there is a 15.4 percent chance Seattle’s pick position improves, a 34.1 percent chance it stays at No. 6 overall, and a 50.5 percent chance it diminishes.
Historical analysis suggests that the projected career production of a draft pick drops off steeply from the No. 1 pick onward. This year, my crude Data Score method (release coming next week) shows a difference between the first overall prospect on my watchlist and the sixth of similar magnitude to the difference between the sixth and the last picks of the seventh round.
The 2026 NHL Draft looks relatively weak from my vantage point in its depth through the first round. It starts well: there are two players at the top worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in an average draft—Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg.
After that, though, the draft lacks a supporting tier of talent that teams drafting in the three-to-five range would prefer to see. Before the season, there were a handful of players who looked like potential candidates to be picked in this range—including Keaton Verhoeff, Tynan Lawrence, and Ryan Roobroeck—but each has stalled in his production or taken steps back in scouting evaluations.
Looking at Data Score only, Seattle’s No. 8 pick last year, Jake O’Brien, would be the clear-cut No. 3 prospect if his profile from last year were dropped into this year’s draft.
Beyond the top five, there are a handful of players who might be a better fit in the five-to-10 range in an average draft, but those players will be pushed up in this draft due to the dearth of top talent.
All of this sets up a highly consequential Draft Lottery for the Seattle Kraken. If the Kraken move up, the team could obtain a transformative player. If the Kraken stay put or fall, it’s possible they miss out on an average top-10-worthy talent entirely.
There are only two names to watch if the Kraken win the lottery. Failing that, the field is murkier, particularly if two high-producing defensemen are off the board by the time Seattle picks.
McKenna was the consensus No. 1 prospect in the fall after blow-torching the WHL in his draft-minus-one season. While he had some quiet stretches (and an off-ice incident) during his freshman year at Penn State, McKenna ended the year with 51 points. This was the fourth-most among draft-eligible college players in the last 20 years, behind only Adam Fantilli, Macklin Celebrini, and Jack Eichel.
McKenna doesn’t have dynamic straight-line speed, but he can manipulate and beat defenses with his skating, possession, and passing in-zone. He creates space for himself and his teammates with the ease of a star.
Nitpicking his game, scouts fault him for floating around the perimeter too often. But even if he doesn’t improve in this area, the extremity of his skill level is unlikely to be denied. Mitch Marner or early-career Connor Bedard are reasonable comparisons, even if McKenna doesn’t fully hit his ceiling. He’s likely to slot into an NHL lineup right away.
The single best statistical season in the two-year sample I assembled for thousands of draft-eligible players was Stenberg’s 2025–26 season in the SHL. In fact, Stenberg compiled the third-most points ever by a draft-eligible SHL player, outpacing players like Elias Lindholm, Nicklas Bäckström, Leo Carlsson, and William Eklund, just to name a few.
Scouts credit a strong offensive package of possession, shot, and passing skills, matched by high-end hockey IQ. While one might suspect a weaker defensive or puck-battle profile, he receives strong grades in those areas as well.
Stenberg projects as a first-line winger down the road and is the most ready-made forward in the draft to help an NHL team this coming season. Even in a draft with McKenna, Stenberg is the hottest prospect coming into the draft.
From what I have seen of the top defense prospects in this draft, Chase Reid stands out as the most dynamic offensive presence. The 6-foot-2 righty is a strong skater and puck-driving catalyst. He has the offensive IQ and passing ability to lead a power-play unit and is progressing enough defensively to take difficult matchups.
That said, Reid brings track record and upside questions. He has produced since he’s been in the OHL, but the résumé is short; he played 18 games of his 2024–25 season in the NAHL, which rarely produces high draft picks. And even if you’re buying the OHL production (I am), Reid may not have the pure physicality to dominate at the NHL level.
That said, the skills are all there to be a No. 1 defenseman if he keeps pushing his development trajectory. For a team like Seattle that needs an injection of electricity on the back end, he’d be a good pick if the Kraken are selecting at No. 6 and he makes it there.
Carson Carels was right there with Reid as a junior producer from the blue line. His 1.26 points per game this season is the highest mark by a draft-eligible WHL defenseman since Scott Niedermayer in the 1990–91 season. The 6-foot-2 left-shot D-man also has the advantage of youth (born June 23, 2008) compared with the other prospects listed here.
When I’ve watched Carels, I’ve formed the impression of a very solid all-around player. He can defend with physicality, initiate the rush, and flash skill in the offensive zone. But I tend to view his upside as closer to a first-pair defenseman rather than a true “No. 1.”
Similar to Reid, I don’t see physically dominant tools or top-end upside. And since I’d put Carels’ offense slightly behind Reid’s, he’s likely to rank slightly behind Reid as a top-10 prospect for me. For Kraken fans, think Vince Dunn with the potential for better, more disciplined defense.
Setting aside Stenberg, Caleb Malhotra may have done more to help himself in his draft season than any other player. Coming into the season, Tynan Lawrence was viewed as the consensus top center, and Malhotra was a bit of an afterthought coming off a mid-range season in the BCHL. His play was trending up in the BCHL playoffs for Chilliwack, though, and he took a giant leap in his draft season playing with Jake O’Brien in the OHL for Brantford.
Malhotra flashes everything you could want from a center: defense, physicality, transition-driving possession ability, and passing and finishing skill in the offensive zone. Still, he has a limited CHL résumé. Will a team drafting in the top five trust a one-year evaluation over everything else? It’s a choice you’d rather make in the teens than that high. Still, the siren song of a center is strong.
Malhotra fits the profile of the player the Kraken have consistently targeted high in the draft. If the Kraken are picking somewhere between sixth and eighth and he’s still there, he’d be a natural fit.
Alberts Smits is the inverse of Carels and Reid. I’ve seen him dominate peer-level competition at the World Juniors for Latvia. He has high-level pro experience in both the top German and Finnish leagues, and he has the physicality to impose his will on a game at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds. It’s easier to see a “No. 1 defenseman” outcome if everything clicks.
On the other hand, he does not have high-end offensive production, and I wonder if he will be afforded the opportunity to tap into it at this stage. He has already found so much success as a defense-oriented professional.
Generally, I’m not a fan of taking a defensive defenseman high in the draft because the overall impact on NHL team success is limited compared with a dynamic offensive presence. That said, Smits appeals for the Kraken because he could step in (whether immediately or after some time in the AHL) to fill a void on the left side and on the penalty kill with Jamie Oleksiak’s projected departure.
If there was a threat to McKenna’s status as the No. 1 overall pick coming into the season, many thought it would be Keaton Verhoeff. Verhoeff, a 6-foot-4 right-handed blueliner, played his draft season at the University of North Dakota after a very strong run both offensively and defensively for the Victoria Royals in the WHL.
Verhoeff’s offensive production flattened a bit in the second half of his draft season, and his skating and four-way mobility drew some criticism from scouts. This has dropped him down most boards, but I wonder if some of this is unwarranted—the result of seeing the inevitable struggle at a higher competition level before the draft rather than after.
Generally, I’m in favor of junior players pushing themselves like Verhoeff did, and it was not calamitous. He may be trending toward a solid pro career rather than being a perennial All-Star, but there are still abundant offensive and physical tools to be excited about. He’s a worthy upside swing toward the end of the top 10 in this draft.
Daxon Rudolph often gets lost in the shuffle when discussing the top defense prospects in this class, but he shouldn’t be. Rudolph brings excellent offensive production for a 6-foot-2 righty. His 78 points are the most by a draft-eligible WHL defenseman since the 2001–02 season. (He played 10 more games than Carels.) His 28 goals are the second-most in that same timeframe, behind only Carter Yakemchuk in 2023–24.
I’d put him behind Reid as an offensive player and behind Carels in terms of overall impact, but he projects as a top-four, two-way defenseman.
Björk is a center who borders on universally beloved by coaches, teammates, and scouts, but he’s 5-foot-9. Ryan Lin is another offense-first defenseman coming out of the WHL, but he too has size concerns at 5-foot-11. Lawrence has the makings of at least a solid middle-six center, but the offensive impact has not been there in his draft season.
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Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
