It was the final practice session of Spokane Chiefs training camp on Saturday, with players as young as 15 ready to show that they had what it takes to make it and compete in the Western Hockey League. Well before the Zamboni completed its final laps, players participating in each session piled onto the bench, eagerly awaiting their turn to jump on the ice.
One of the team names from camp was Team Yamamoto, aptly named after former Chiefs assistant captain and former Seattle Kraken forward Kailer Yamamoto. While most everyone from the Yamamoto roster had crammed onto one bench like each of the teams before them had, one player was missing from the pile-up.
Where was standout forward Berkly Catton? Look no further than the opposite bench. Normally, the entrance to the opposite bench was used exclusively by Chiefs coaches throughout camp, but the Kraken’s 2024 No. 8 overall pick occupied the area by himself, a pre-season metaphor for the kind of player he is for Spokane.
Berkly Catton (right bench) and other participants in Spokane Chiefs training camp await their chance to take the ice. (Photo/Cameron Riggers)
If this past year has proven anything for Catton, it’s that he’s been nothing less than a star in the WHL. Catton, a native of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, was putting up numbers that not many wearing a Spokane uniform had before. His 116 points in 68 games in 2023-24 were good for seventh all-time in a single season by a Chiefs player, and he accomplished that in a season he started as a 17-year-old (he turned 18 on Jan. 14).
He was a highlight machine last season, with a game-wrecking move being all but imminent every time he had the puck on his stick. He attributes a lot of his skills to watching highlights of Pavel Datsyuk, Sergei Fedorov, as well as the late Johnny Gaudreau.
One of the smoother and stronger skaters in the draft class, Catton also brought impressive agility at his smaller stature of 5-foot-10, 174 lbs. He prioritized enhancing his shooting and playmaking abilities heading into his draft year.
“I spend a lot of my summers just shooting pucks, learning that it’s not easy to score goals in this league,” Catton said back in February. “I think by doing that I’ve taken my shot to the next level.”
The summer of Catton
To begin his summer, he attended the Scouting Combine in Buffalo, N.Y., in June, where he met with many teams, including the Kraken.
“We had our meeting at the Scouting Combine and [they] touched base a little bit throughout the year,” Catton said. “They were really strong meetings. I thought at the Combine, it went really well. I think the questions that they rolled off of me, I handled them well.”
As the draft approached, despite favorable meetings with Seattle, there wasn’t much indication that the Kraken would wind up picking him; many pegged them to take a defenseman with the No. 8 pick.
“They didn’t give much of an [indication] as to where they were going,” Catton said. “Rather than some teams telling you if they liked you or they didn’t, I honestly didn’t really expect [to be picked by them].”
Much to the surprise of many draft boards, the Kraken selected him eighth overall, effectively sending Spokane fans into a frenzy.
“Living here in Washington [for three years] now, I’ve been able to see the impact that the team’s had on the state,” Catton said. “I’m just extremely excited to see that and hopefully be a part of it pretty soon.”
As a byproduct of going to Las Vegas for the draft, Catton got to hang out with former Seahawks running back and minority owner of the Kraken, Marshawn Lynch. He wasn’t that familiar with Lynch or his impact on the Seattle sports scene, but he quickly learned just how revered a figure he is in the city.
“When I initially hung out with him and met him, I probably didn’t know quite how much he did,” Catton said. “After being in Seattle, I don’t think [people] really cared I went eighth overall—they cared I hung out with Marshawn Lynch more than anything.”
Following the draft, Catton headed to Development Camp at Kraken Community Iceplex in Seattle, where he signed his entry-level contract. Though he didn’t envision the signing happening on the ice in front of hundreds of Kraken fans, he marked it as his “Welcome to Seattle” moment.
“We think he’s a really high-end skill player,” general manager Ron Francis said at the draft. “He’s got elite hockey sense, high-end speed, a real good skillset, and is highly competitive.”
The Kraken’s guiding hand
Since signing his ELC, the Kraken have been very open about communicating their goals for Catton in the coming season and beyond. Sports science and performance consultant Gary Roberts has been a big influence on Catton in terms of diet and exercise thus far. Roberts helps train many high-profile NHL stars, including Connor McDavid.
And the influence has been noticeable, with Catton seemingly gaining much more muscle tone over the summer. Bulking up even further could help bolster his transition into pro hockey.
The Kraken also talked to Catton about wanting to see improvements on the defensive side of the puck, which was one of the knocks on his game entering the draft. Among the top 10 point-getters last season in the WHL, Catton had the second-lowest plus-minus figure at +15, which is about 18 below the top-10 average.
While his struggles could probably be attributed to the Chiefs’ defense and goaltending not being optimal last season, Catton spoke with determination to wash that away and get better in that aspect of his game, as well as with high aspirations heading into Kraken training camp.
“I think going into the camp in Seattle, my goal is to try and make that team,” Catton said. “If not, come back [to Spokane] to be a leader on this team, be an offensive threat, and get a little bit better on the defensive side.”
Is there an opportunity for Catton to make the Kraken’s opening day lineup this season? There’s definitely a point to be made about finding a jolt for the Kraken offense, which finished fourth to last in goals for last season. However, throwing Catton into the NHL at 18 years old may have a negative impact on his development, especially if he doesn’t get sufficient playing time. Plus, if he plays more than nine games for the Kraken, then Seattle uses up a year of his ELC.
Also, only a handful of non-first-overall picks in recent years have managed to secure a spot on an opening night roster the season after they were drafted and stick through the entire season—Zach Benson and Cole Sillinger being a couple examples. While it’s unlikely Catton will stay with the NHL team for the full year, it is possible, and it’s also possible that he could get a few games out of camp and then get sent back. Still, the most likely outcome for him this season is a return to Spokane for another full year.
No matter where he plays this season, there’s little doubt that he will receive more attention than ever before. Over 75 percent of games the Chiefs play this year will be in the U.S., making it easy for Kraken fans and staff to follow him. Spokane is also set to be a strong team this year, one that’s sure to vie for a top seed in the WHL playoffs, assuming Catton returns. The Chiefs may even have a chance at winning the U.S. Division, something that hasn’t been done since 1999-00.
“Before [camp], I was saying to all the guys that it’s not a squeak-into-the-playoffs-type year,” Catton said. “It’s to solidify ourselves early in the year and let everyone know we’re a team you don’t want to play in the first round—to be in that 1, 2, 3, or 4 seed and have that home-ice advantage. That’s the ultimate goal.”
He doesn’t set numerical goals for himself, but he’s committed to building on last season. He has a lot to look forward to this year, including a likely invitation to the World Junior Championship and possibly being in the 60-goal conversation by season’s end.
New Chiefs head coach Brad Lauer is as optimistic as anyone about Catton’s upcoming season.
“When you have a player like Berkly, as a coach, it’s exciting,” Lauer said. “For me as a coach now, it’s about developing him and getting him to the next level.”
So, here you go… five things I’m looking forward to for the upcoming Seattle Kraken season.
1. Dealing with Dan Bylsma
My first topic is perhaps not the most relatable for fans, since most do not get many opportunities to interact directly with the head coach of an NHL team. But fans do get to hear from the coach regularly via press conferences and interviews, and those watching and listening from afar get to know said coach in that sense.
For me and others in the press corps, it’s a little more personal. I’ve said MANY times before that I really liked Dave Hakstol as a person, and that sentiment stands, even after he was let go by the organization. He had a rigid exterior and a never-changing demeanor, and he did his best to keep the media at arm’s length, but every now and then, he’d let his guard down just a little. When he did, you would see what a kind and caring person he was beneath that tough shell.
That said, new coach Dan Bylsma brings a very different vibe. In my few interactions with him so far, he has not hidden or sugarcoated anything, and there’s been no indication that he wants the media to be guessing. He jokes, wears his heart on his sleeve, and makes you feel like you’re an old friend.
While I’m excited to see what improvements Bylsma can bring to the Kraken on the ice, I’m actually more interested in seeing how the dynamics will change in the dressing room now that “Disco Dan” is at the helm. My hope is that his openness creates some deeper connections with the fanbase as well.
2. Seeing how Montour and Stephenson can help
The Kraken made two huge offseason bets on free-agent acquisitions, Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, committing more than 15 percent of this season’s salary cap to these newcomers. The seven-year contracts got mixed reviews when they were first signed, including from me, but after the initial guttural responses wore off, I started to get excited about how these players can change the complexion of the team.
In a way, general manager Ron Francis did this offseason what I hoped he would do last summer, bolstering the team from the top down. Last summer, my expectation was that he would add a couple of scoring forwards, causing a trickle-down effect to the fourth line. Instead, he let the entire productive fourth line from 2022-23 walk and replaced those players with role players.
This summer, Francis again let the fourth line walk, only this time, he added Stephenson to the top of the forward corps and plans to backfill the rest of the fourth line from within the organization. Coupling the Stephenson acquisition with the impending arrival of Shane Wright, Yanni Gourde could be destined for a fourth-line center role, which will only strengthen Seattle’s depth.
Meanwhile, Montour replaced Justin Schultz, and Ryker Evans replaced Brian Dumoulin as a full-time third-pair defenseman. Suddenly, the Kraken appear poised to be much more offensively productive from the back end. How this plays out in Seattle’s defensive zone remains to be seen, but I think the Kraken should see a significant uptick in scoring, and that will be fun to watch.
3. Shane Wright’s progression
Wright is all but guaranteed a spot on the Kraken roster out of training camp, which should mean he is entering his first full season in the NHL. The No. 4 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft has had a bumpy development road, losing an entire OHL season to COVID and playing for a slew of different teams before finally getting a chance to enjoy some consistency this past season in Coachella Valley.
The result was a huge step in his progression and a feeling that he is back on track to become one of the faces of the franchise in the near future. Wright’s five points (4-1=5) in five NHL games in April, plus 47 points (22-25=47) in 59 games in Coachella Valley last season, left Kraken fans salivating over what he might bring, now that he has found his footing as a pro.
Look for Wright to have a strong training camp as he seeks his first full-time NHL roster spot.
4. Matty Beniers’ response to last season
By most accounts, Matty Beniers followed his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season with a sophomore slump in 2023-24, going through some loooooong scoring droughts despite being anchored in the middle of Seattle’s top line and a constant on the power play.
But he did start to find his way through tighter checking from opponents toward the end of the season and still managed a very respectable 15 goals and 22 assists—numbers we would have been pleased with from a 21-year-old had he not scored 57 points (24-33=57) the season prior.
Last summer was a funky one for Beniers after an extended playoff run, Calder Trophy celebrations, and a season of playing more hockey than he ever had in his life. Now armed with a new seven-year contract, a full offseason of training, and a (hopefully) stronger cast of centers that could lower the focus on him, I’m eager to see if Beniers can get back to playing more freely.
I personally expect a big jump in production from him this season. Will I be right?
5. A more competitive team
Kraken ownership gave Francis and his staff a directive to make the team more competitive after a very disappointing result in 2023-24 left fans feeling uninspired about the future of the club. The front office responded with a couple of key upgrades and a coaching change.
Seeing the team flounder down the stretch—especially after Alex Wennberg was dealt at the Trade Deadline and Vince Dunn got injured—was disheartening and, at times, downright depressing.
Hope springs eternal when a new season starts, and I definitely have that optimistic vibe back right now. Here’s hoping that feeling carries all the way through to the end of the season, and that we will be seeing meaningful hockey in March and (dare I say) beyond.
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Darren Brown
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at soundofhockey.com and the host of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is a member of the PHWA and is also usually SOH’s Twitter intern (but please pretend you don’t know that). Follow him @DarrenFunBrown and @sound_hockey or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Seattle’s defense got a significant upgrade this offseason. Brandon Montour, fresh off a Stanley Cup win with the Florida Panthers, signed a hefty seven-year, $50 million contract with the Kraken on the opening day of free agency. This commitment is underscored by a no-trade clause for the first three years, which then transitions to a modified NTC for the remainder of the deal. Let’s delve into Montour’s playing style and what Kraken fans can expect from their newest defenseman.
Montour’s offensive prowess
Montour’s offensive prowess is a cornerstone of his game. Over the past two seasons, he’s amassed an impressive 106 points in 146 games, with a career-best 73-point campaign in 2022-23. His ability to move the puck and generate offense from the back end is a significant upgrade for the Kraken.
Seattle’s previous reliance on a dump-and-chase style can be improved with Montour’s puck-moving ability, which will allow for more controlled entries and smooth transitions. His right-handed shot will complement the team’s existing defensive corps, and his ability to jump into the rush while maintaining situational awareness will add a new dimension to their offensive attack. The smooth-skating defenseman excels at starting the breakout with quick passes to get the puck moving up the ice. Here are a few clips of Montour making the first pass.
Shot selection
Adam Larsson has led Kraken defensemen in shots since the team’s inception with 392. Montour easily eclipses that mark, with 563 shots during the same time frame. This penchant for shooting will be welcomed by the Kraken.
As illustrated in the provided heatmaps (source: MoneyPuck), Montour’s shots are primarily concentrated at the point, but he’s not afraid to move around the ice and take shots from various angles. His ability to generate a high volume of shots, especially from long range, will be instrumental in creating scoring opportunities by generating rebounds and deflections.
Montour’s familiarity with the 1-3-1 power play strategy, a system also utilized by the Seattle Kraken, played a role in his shooting habits. This formation often anchors the power play quarterback at the point, which aligns with Montour’s primary shooting location.
Overall, Montour’s shooting style and offensive instincts make him a valuable addition to the Kraken’s blue line. His ability to generate shots and create scoring chances will be a key asset for the team as they strive for success.
Defensive abilities
While Montour is primarily known for his offensive contributions, he also possesses solid defensive skills. He’s positionally sound, adept at breaking up plays with his poke check, and effective at clogging passing lanes. Contrary to what his offensive reputation might suggest, Montour plays a more conservative defensive style, prioritizing his positional responsibilities over unnecessary offensive ventures.
Montour’s defensive play is heavily influenced by the systems implemented by the Florida Panthers. Through careful observation, it’s evident that Montour adheres to specific assignments in various zones, minimizing risky plays and prioritizing defensive responsibility.
Offense zone defense
Whilst playing defense in the offensive zone, Montour primarily occupies the point position. He’s quick to exit the zone once the puck is controlled by the opposing team, demonstrating his conservative approach to defense.
When the opponent contests but does not control puck along the boards, Montour does not hesitate to pinch and apply pressure to the opposing winger, aiming to regain possession. However, he’s always mindful of maintaining proper coverage, ensuring that a forward is in position to cover defense and limit odd-man rushes.
Here are a few clips of Montour pinching to maintain puck possession.
Given the Kraken’s similar defensive strategies, Montour’s familiarity with these tactics should allow him to seamlessly integrate into the team’s system.
Defensive zone
In the defensive zone, his home is in front of the net and in the corners. He is constantly scanning the ice for potential threats. Communication is key, and the right-shot defenseman can be seen during play talking to his teammates and pointing to opponents to ensure defensive coverage.
While Montour isn’t known for delivering heavy hits, he’s adept at using his body to separate the puck carrier from the puck and subsequently retrieving it. Once he gains possession, his puck-handling skills come into play, allowing him to quickly move the puck to a teammate and ensure his team keeps control.
The fast-paced nature of hockey often leads to odd-man rushes, and Montour’s poke check is a valuable asset in these situations. His ability to anticipate passes, combined with his willingness to sacrifice his body to block shots, makes him a formidable defender. Here are some clips of Montour’s poke checks.
The power play quarterback
Montour’s contributions extend beyond even-strength play, as evidenced by his league-leading average of 4:05 of average power play time per game over the past two seasons. While his goal production on the man advantage has been modest (four goals in two years), he’s established himself as a top distributor, ranking fifth in the NHL among defensemen with 46 power play assists during the same timeframe.
His role as a power play quarterback revolves around facilitating puck movement and creating scoring opportunities. The addition of Montour provides the Kraken with a formidable one-two punch alongside Vince Dunn, who will surely quarterback the other unit. Sharing the workload could potentially lead to a decrease in Montour’s power play time, as both he and Dunn will command plenty of opportunities.
It’s worth acknowledging the dip in Montour’s power play production during the 2023-24 season, coinciding with the emergence of Sam Reinhart and his 57 goals. Reinhart playing the bumper position, coupled with the Panthers’ strategy of cycling the puck low, limited Montour’s direct opportunities for assists. Check out this clip of a textbook Panthers power-play goal.
If the NHL counted third assists, Montour’s season totals would have definitely been higher. Regardless, Montour remained a valuable contributor to one of the league’s best power plays. The Florida Panthers power play was the fourth best in the NHL over the last two years, scoring 126 goals.
Montour’s experience and puck-moving abilities will be a significant asset for the Kraken’s special teams unit.
Coming back from injury
Following a tough Stanley Cup Final defeat to end the 2022-23 season and subsequent surgery to repair a torn labrum, Montour missed the first 16 games to start 2023-24. Despite returning to action and averaging 23:13 of ice time, Montour struggled to regain his pre-injury scoring touch during the early stages of the season. He was limited to 11 points in the first 36 games.
However, as the season progressed, his play began to show signs of improvement. Over the final 30 games, he demonstrated a significant uptick in production, averaging .73 points per game. This is equivalent to a 60-point pace for a full season. This surge suggests that Montour has fully regained his strength and confidence, and it bodes well for his potential in Seattle.
There is a lot going on in the following visualization (source: HockeyViz). What these graphics show is when Montour is on the ice, how do all the Panthers perform as a team? The image on the left is the 2022-23 season, and the right image is the 2023-24 season.
Here are my three takeaways from this data.
The top left heatmap for the 2023-24 season shows when Montour is on the ice, the even-strength offense heavily favored to Montour’s side of the ice.
The bottom left heatmap for the 2023-24 season shows very few shots are coming from the right side, indicating strong defense.
The top right heatmap shows Florida’s power-play shots. In the 2022-23 season, a bigger portion of the team’s shots were from the point than in 2023-24. That could be due to team strategy and Sam Reinhart’s team-leading 27 power-play goals.
Montour will boost the Kraken
Brandon Montour’s addition to the Seattle Kraken is a significant boost to their already strong defensive corps. The Kraken were already a top-10 team in goals against (232) prior to Montour’s arrival, and his presence will only further solidify their defensive foundation.
Beyond his defensive contributions, Montour’s offensive abilities offer the potential to enhance the Kraken’s scoring capabilities. His skillset aligns well with the team’s strategy, and his presence on the blue line will undoubtedly make them a better team.
Kraken fans can eagerly anticipate seeing Montour in a Kraken jersey when training camp begins on Sept 19. If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below. You can find me on the X at @blaizg.
It’s been one of those very difficult weeks in the hockey world, after the tragic passing of Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau. The guys start and end the episode by sharing their reactions to that devastating news.
They also share some brief Seattle Kraken news, go Down on the Farm, and dig into the massive Leon Draisaitl contract extension.
After that, they shift to segments, which include Goalie Gear Corner, Weekly One-Timers, and What’s Good.
As the calendar turns to September, developmental hockey leagues across the world are back on the ice for games. And since it’s never too early to start thinking about the next NHL Draft (right?), that means the time is now to get out a preseason watchlist of 2025 NHL Draft prospects.
The “Data Score” approach
As in years past, my list is based on quantifiable data only. It’s built from the bedrock of an NHL equivalency (or “NHLe”). What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.
For this preseason watchlist, I used player data scoring data from the 2022-23 season filtered through Chatel’s NHLe. I then make adjustments for age, height, and position, as well as a modest upward adjustment to the NHLe for low-scoring draft-eligible players playing in high-level professional leagues. I’ve gone through the methodology previously here and here. The product of my work is a number I’ve termed a prospect’s “Data Score.” This number no longer projects NHL scoring but is (hopefully) useful in describing the relative strength of prospects.
One change I’m making this year is in the language I’m using. In the past I have referred to my Data Score list as data-only “ranking.” But, upon reflection, I don’t think the term “ranking” is productive in describing the work. I’m not engaged in the extraordinarily challenging process of subjective prospect-to-prospect comparison. Instead, I’m simply providing a list of top scoring players for further scouting investigation, loosely graduated based on their data. I think this is how the best-run NHL teams use NHLe data or other data-based measures. The data helps identify players as a tool to further research and scouting. So, moving forward, I’ll do my best to refrain from referring to Data Score as an NHL Draft ranking.
How did last year’s preseason watchlist fare?
Just how useful is a Data Score based on a player’s scoring data from the season before the draft year in question? As you might expect, it’s not perfect. Players—particularly first-time draft-eligible players—often take a very large statistical leap in their draft seasons as they continue to mature. An important season awaits all of these players. And there are always players that teams and scouts “like” (or “dislike”) more than their scoring data would suggest.
That said, it is remarkable how much you can learn even from scoring data predating the draft year. Looking at last year’s top-32 first-time draft eligibles on my preseason watchlist, draftniks will see a lot of familiar names. The top five picks in the 2024 NHL Draft were all there, as were a remarkable 11 of the top 15 players drafted.
All told, 15 of the top 32 in my preseason list were drafted in the first round and 26 were selected within the top four rounds of the 2024 NHL Draft. The six that went later or undrafted were one Russian player, two defensemen 5-foot-11 or shorter, and three forwards 5-foot-10 or shorter.
The accuracy of last year’s preseason list as a predictive tool declines the deeper you go into it, but this remarkable success rate at the top gives me confidence that the Data Score approach can serve its purpose as a watchlist.
2025 NHL Draft first-time eligible prospect watchlist
Without further preamble, here are the 32 first-time eligible draft prospects with the highest Data Score. (If “totals” is listed under “Team,” it means the player played for multiple teams in the league indicated.)
As mentioned above, the names in this range are the most notable. Broadly speaking, the CHL continues as the top developmental league, accounting for 21 of these 32 prospects. Notable to me, though, is the presence of six players from the QMJHL after that league went largely unrepresented at the top of the 2024 NHL Draft. Could it be a bounce back year for the Q?
Prospects who have already garnered significant draft coverage, including James Hagens, Ivan Ryabkin, Porter Martone, Michael Misa, Malcolm Spence, Roger McQueen, and Anton Frondell, show up within this list. At this point in the process, I don’t believe it would surprise anyone if all seven were drafted in the top 10 in the spring. Good friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast Chris Peters has them all listed within his “Way Too Early Top 10 Prospect List” for the 2025 Draft.
Beyond the top 32, here are 64 more first-time draft-eligible prospects to watch:
2025 NHL Draft re-entry prospect watchlist
Each year, many prospects who slipped through the cracks of the previous draft(s) finally hear their names called. 42 such re-draft prospects were selected in the 2024 NHL Draft. From a Seattle Kraken perspective, Ryker Evans is an example of one such prospect who had to wait an extra year to get drafted in 2022. And, as Evans proved, there is still a pathway to NHL success for these players. Here are 64 re-draft candidates to watch.
A few near misses preview the 2026 NHL Draft
Age eligibility for the 2025 NHL Draft cuts off at Sept. 15, 2007. If a player is born after that date in 2007, he is not eligible until the 2026 draft. It so happens that this year’s draft might look quite a bit different at the top if the rule instead allowed all 2007-born players to be eligible.
Burgeoning superstar forward Gavin McKenna (birthdate: 12/20/2007) would bump James Hagens out of the No. 1 overall spot on the watchlist if he were eligible for this draft with a Data Score of 64.71. As it is, McKenna seems destined for draft hype reminiscent of his cousin Connor Bedard once next season rolls around. The fact that McKenna still has two seasons left for the Medicine Hat Tigers is scary for the rest of the WHL.
Beyond McKenna, defenseman Xavier Villeneuve (9/29/2007) of the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL) and forward Ryan Roobroeck (9/25/2007) of the Niagara IceDogs (OHL) would also be in the 2025 NHL Draft watchlist top 10 if they were eligible. Forward Arseni Ilyin (12/24/2007) of SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL) would come in just outside the top 32, but his data suggests he could be the next big name from Russia.
All four of these players are names to track for the future.
Continued draft coverage at Sound Of Hockey
Like last year, we intend to develop a library of draft prospect videos for the 2025 NHL Draft, as well as generate the Sound Of Hockey Big Board and a final data-only list. If time allows, we’ll also plan on doing a midseason check-in on our watchlist. Is there anything else you’d like to see from our draft coverage at Sound Of Hockey? Leave a note in the comments below or reach out to us on X, formerly known as Twitter, @deepseahockey or @sound_hockey.
Header photo courtesy Brian Liesse, Seattle Thunderbirds.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
Finally, everyone can awake from their hockey hibernation. With the ice laid down and frozen in arenas across the Western Hockey League, it signals both the end of summer and the start of a brand new season on the horizon. When it’s said that this could be one of the most talented seasons in recent league memory, it’s truly meant.
This past NHL Draft showed that the league’s growth in recent years has been exponential, as 34 total players selected was the highest among all developmental leagues worldwide. So, ahead of what’s sure to be a thrilling season, there are plenty of new and exciting things to check out.
Here’s what’s in store for the 2024-25 season.
1. Everett and Spokane games now have major Kraken implications
The Everett Silvertips and Spokane Chiefs will likely have the most eyes on them (at least regionally speaking) for the entire season, as matchups between them will feature three highly touted Seattle Kraken prospects.
In Everett, defenseman Kaden Hammell and forward Julius Miettinen will be right in the Kraken’s backyard for whenever fans want to see them, and it will be fun to see how exceptional-status defenseman Landon DuPont performs in his first season in the WHL.
But of course, the main event will be when Spokane comes to town with Kraken first-round pick, Berkly Catton. The Chiefs will visit Everett on three occasions this upcoming season, with the first contest scheduled for Nov. 22, followed by Jan. 10, and Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, the Tips have three trips of their own to Spokane, all in the second half of the season.
The Chiefs’ promotional staff had a smart idea with Catton becoming a Kraken, as they are selling a special ticket package for games featuring other prospects for the team.
The No. 8 overall selection in this past draft didn’t have to wait long to become a fan favorite, at least among the Spokane faithful. Many were already familiar with Catton before he was selected and signed to an entry-level contract during Kraken Development Camp.
There’s sure to be far more regional attention paid to him now, as he arguably became the top prospect in the organization after the selection. For this WHL season, the Chiefs will go as Catton goes, and fortunately for them, he’s all but certain to break out even further into the star playmaker he’s projected to be at the NHL level.
He’s bound to surpass the 60-goal mark, too, having topped out at 54 in 68 games last season. Heck, it’s not outlandish to think 65-70 could be a possibility if he stays healthy, as he possesses a natural offensive talent that will be hard for any defense to deny. More on him later this week.
3. How Seattle and Tri-City plan to bounce back
The two teams that missed out on the playoffs last season are vying to make their way back in. And while they aren’t expected to go far, there are pieces there that could be interesting to watch develop.
Seattle fell short of defending its league title from the season before, but they did build momentum down the stretch of last season. Even without making the playoffs, there were moments where the youth began to emerge and win some games here and there. Developing and gaining experience for the younger players might continue to be the name of the game for the Thunderbirds this season as well.
Meanwhile, the Tri-City Americans will look to recover from falling out of the playoff spot they held for about two-thirds of the season. They’ve made some much-needed moves to put themselves in a better position to compete this season.
The Americans retooled a bit this summer, trading Kraken prospect Lukas Dragicevic to the Prince Albert Raiders, a trade request made by the player. They received a myriad of assets in return, including D Terrell Goldsmith, F Grady Martin, and G Nathan Preston.
It’ll be interesting to see how F Jordan Gavin develops going into his draft year, as he’s currently projected to go somewhere near the end of the first round or in the early second round on some draft boards.
4. Which new head coach will have the most impact?
Four new head coaches arrived in the U.S. Division for the four teams that ironically qualified for the playoffs last season. All four are WHL veteran coaches in their own right.
Everett’s Steve Hamilton, Spokane’s Brad Lauer, and Wenatchee’s Don Nachbaur have all combined for over 30 years of head coaching experience. Meanwhile, the successor to long-time coach Mike Johnston in Portland, Kyle Gustafson, has been under his and the Winterhawks’ tutelage for two decades.
It was discussed earlier this offseason, but most of these coaches are coming into good situations already. So, it’s going to come down to how much they can make the most of their rosters to see who goes the farthest.
5. Central Division teams coming to town
One of the few downsides of the WHL is only getting to see Eastern Conference foes make their journeys and play in the region once every two seasons. But the good news is that a really good batch of teams from the Central Division is set to make their way through.
Last season, Kraken prospect Jagger Firkus and his Moose Jaw Warriors of the Eastern Division stole the show during “Circus Week in the PNW,” which allowed many fans to see one of the Kraken’s marquee prospects in person for the very first time.
This season, in a similar fashion to Firkus, recent Kraken fourth-rounder Ollie Josephson and the Red Deer Rebels will make their way to town between Nov. 8 and 16.
We’ll have to find another clever nickname for that trip too, especially if Josephson gets out to a hot start to his season. How does “The Ollie Rollie” sound? We can workshop it.
It will also be quite fun when the Medicine Hat Tigers swing through between Jan. 24 and Feb. 1. With Andrew Basha, Cayden Lindstrom, and the recently acquired Ryder Ritchie all being selected in the first two rounds of last summer’s NHL Draft, this team is already stacked with NHL prospects. And that’s not even to mention the likes of Gavin McKenna, who could be the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
Medicine Hat Tigers are going to be stacked next year: Gavin McKenna Cayden Lindstrom Ryder Ritchie Andrew Basha Markus and Liam Ruck Hunter St. Martin Jonas Woo Bryce Pickford Could be like the Vancouver Giants where you make the Memorial Cup a year before hosting
During his exceptional-status 15/16-year-old season, McKenna erupted for 97 points in 61 games, and he’s projected to have even more outstanding and absurd numbers this season.
Barring anything drastic, when the Tigers face the Silvertips in Everett on Wednesday, Jan. 29, it will mark just the second time in league history that two exceptional-status players (McKenna and DuPont) will share the ice as opponents in the same game.
So, circle the calendars for what might be the only few times to see McKenna play live before he and the rest of his teammates turn pro within the next few years.
Welcome back to hockey, everyone. Predictions for the upcoming campaign will be coming soon.
On July 5, Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis took the microphone at center ice and addressed fans assembled for the the last day of Kraken Development Camp to announce the team’s re-signing of Eeli Tolvanen. That same day, Francis also announced the signing of Berkly Catton to his entry-level contract, indicating that the Kraken were front office was taking care of business and checking items off its summer to-do list. But as the applause and the excitement of the day died down, all attention turned to the one piece of unfinished business: signing Matty Beniers.
At the time, we knew that the Kraken were in talks with the young forward’s camp. Francis told the media on July 1 that the team had already spoken with agent Pat Brisson and planned to do so again on July 2.
Finally, on August 20, the dam broke. The Kraken announced the team had signed Beniers to a seven-year, $50 million contract, carrying a $7.14 million average annual value.
Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown gave his instant analysis after the news dropped. With the benefit of extra time to analyze the deal–and finish a vacation, ahem–what else can we say about where Beniers and his contract stacks up against the league and similar deals struck over the years? And what conclusions can we draw about whether the Kraken made a sound investment? Here are my takeaways on the deal.
1. Beniers makes history again
Matty Beniers is Seattle’s first ever draft pick, highest-drafted player, first draft pick to make his career debut with the team, and its first player to win a major NHL award–the 2023 Calder Trophy. His new contract now joins that litany of milestones.
In what is highly unlikely a coincidence, Beniers’ deal matches the term and total dollar value of the richest contract in Kraken history–the contract Seattle gave to defenseman Brandon Montour on July 1. (Vince Dunn’s contract remains the richest in terms of AAV.)
The seven-year term is also the longest contract in team history, tied with contracts given to Montour and Chandler Stephenson earlier this offseason. While the deal is lengthy, it is one year short of the eight-year maximum term in the CBA for a team’s own restricted free agent. It ties Beniers to the Kraken through his age 28 season, and it buys out one unrestricted free agent year.
Let’s get quizzical: The Matty Beniers contract is the first time the Kraken have signed one of their draft picks to a second deal after the player’s entry-level contract. It is not, however, the first time the team has signed a player to a second contract after originally signing the player to an entry-level contract. It has happened twice previously. Can you name the two players? Scroll to the bottom of the article for the answer (or listen to the last Sound Of Hockey Podcast).
2. The Beniers contract comes in near market projections
Earlier in the offseason, Evolving Hockey and AFP Analytics published contract projections for notable unrestricted and restricted free agents. While their full methods are not public, each outfit uses contracts signed by comparable players as a basis.
Evolving Hockey projected Beniers’ most likely contract as a seven-year, $7.1 million dollar AAV contract. After rounding, this is precisely the contract that the team and player settled on. For its part, AFP Analytics projected a seven-year deal, carrying a $6.6 million AAV. This was also quite close to the actual deal.
AFP Analytics used the following player contracts as comparables:
I’ll return to a few of these names in a moment.
3. Beniers’ market value slipped from where it was last offseason
If Matty Beniers’ new contract checked in at (or ever-so-slightly above) his market value, one might question the near unanimous public praise of the deal. I think there are three explanations for the reaction–rooted in fandom, anchoring bias, and structural factors, respectively.
First, among Kraken fans, I believe many are justifiably excited that a young player they have followed closely will be with the team long-term. Beniers’ willingness to commit to seven years in Seattle is viewed as a positive, particularly coming off a disappointing campaign for the team. That factor alone makes the deal a win for many.
Second, when a contract extension for Beniers was first discussed last summer, several analysts, myself included, predicted an extension with a maximum eight-year term and approximately $64 million total ($8 million dollars annually). I arrived at this figure using age and point production comparables at the time. Judged against that standard, securing Beniers for $14 million “less” in total commitments could be viewed as a win for the team in a salary cap environment.
Yet, the fact is, Beniers’ market value declined this past season as his offensive production fell from .71 points per game in 2022-23 to .48 points per game in 2023-24. This sophomore regression casts more doubt on his ultimate offensive upside and puts him into a slightly different contract category. Viewing this deal as a “value” relative to earlier expectations may be an example of “anchoring bias”–a cognitive bias where we weigh our initial impressions of Beniers, both on-ice and in projecting the long-term value, too heavily. We think Beniers is “really” the Calder Trophy winner and last year was an aberration.
How much to weigh Beniers’ on-ice production decline was likely a key sticking point in negotiations. As we have said on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we believe that there was an eight-year contract offer on the table for Beniers last offseason. This offseason, both sides mitigated their risk by settling on a seven-year term. From the team perspective, the team gets some relief by lowering the total dollar commitment.
From Beniers’ perspective, he has the chance to get to unrestricted free agency one year sooner and potentially recoup the money he “lost” due to his down season. Beniers’ $7.14 million AAV represents 8.12 percent of the 2024-25 salary cap. If he is able to maintain his on-ice value over the course of his current deal and secure another deal worth 8.12 percent of the cap in 2031, his 2031-32 salary would be a little more than $10 million (assuming five percent annual growth in the cap). This would mitigate most of what he may have “lost” by his down season. But it shifts a fair amount of injury and performance risk onto Beniers.
Third, we need to keep in mind that structural factors depress the salaries of all young players. Given what we know about how hockey players age, the next half decade projects to be the most productive of Beniers’ career. Even so, under league rules, Beniers was still six years away from being able to freely negotiate a contract with all 32 NHL teams. I think most would agree that Beniers’ contract is likely to be a better production-to-dollar “value” than Chandler Stephenson’s deal from earlier in the offseason. But Stephenson had the leverage of unrestricted free agency. We improve our evaluations when we take a closer look at player leverage in grading the “value” of a deal achieved by the team. Stephenson had it; Beniers–like other young players–didn’t have it.
4. Beniers trails many players who have earned similar contracts in shot generation
Digging a little deeper, I wanted to see how Beniers measured up against players who had received similar contracts in the past. In an exercise that would have been many hours of labor easier in the CapFriendly era, I assembled a list of all contracts signed in the last 15 years by a forward aged 23 years old or younger with a contract term of six years or longer, and an AAV of between seven percent and 9.25 percent of the salary cap in the first year of the contract. This exercise returned 25 total results, including Beniers’ deal:
The good news is, every one of these players is still in the league and producing. James Van Reimsdyk doesn’t currently have a contract, but, even at 35 years old, I’d be surprised if he didn’t find a home by opening day. And all but one of these players (Brandon Saad) saw their per-game point production continue to increase post-signing. (Seth Jarvis and Juraj Slafkovsky, like Beniers, haven’t yet played post-signing.)
Beniers fits comfortably within this list in several important respects. Of these 25 players, Beniers ranked 13th in total time on ice and ninth in average time on ice at the time of signing. This reflects the substantial role he has played for the Kraken early in his career–even relative to a distinguished list of players. Beniers also has the high-profile pedigree characteristic of players earning a contract like this. All but one of these 25 players (Saad again) was a first round pick, with 18 of 25 being a top-10 pick, like Beniers.
It’s a great list for Beniers to be on.
On the other hand, Beniers’ actual and expected point production trails the average in this group when normalizing for ice time. Beniers is toward the bottom of the list (t-20th) with 2.12 points per 60 minutes at the time of signing. Likewise, his individual expected goals per 60 minutes of 0.80 is in the bottom five in this group (t-21st).
What is the root of the issue? Beniers struggles to generate his own shots on goal relative to this peer group. He sees the ice well and can generate looks for his teammates at a reasonable clip (17th in assists/60), but he generates only 6.12 shots on goal per 60 minutes, which is the third-lowest of this group of players.
He needs to take a leap forward in generating his own scoring chances, particularly from the most dangerous areas of the ice, if he is going to be an “average” performer among his peers in this comparable contract group.
This is particularly true because contracts like Beniers’ deal come with the weight of public and organizational expectation. Consider the case of Nikolaj Ehlers–one of Beniers’ contract comparables. He has continued as a solid performer and analytics darling for the life of his contract in Winnipeg, but his inability to take control of games and score, particularly late in the season and in the playoffs, has led to ever-increasing scrutiny and trade rumors.
5. Seattle is paying for Beniers’ future role and production
I also wanted to see where Beniers’ contract stacks up against the other centers in the league going into the 2024-25 season. While public position tracking data isn’t perfect, I tabulated a list of NHL forwards with a minimum threshold of total face-offs as a stand-in for the league’s centers. Beniers’ contract ranks 36th by average annual value–equivalent of high-end 2C.
Yet, his .48 points per game from last season ranked 93rd among the group–equivalent of a low-end 3C.
All of the foregoing analysis leads me to the conclusion that the Beniers contract is slightly above Beniers’ market value based on historical precedent and existing production.
Even so, Seattle likely saw at least four legitimate reasons to agree to that deal. First and foremost is the rising cap. For the first time in years, a team can have confidence in a steadily rising cap over the medium-term. A rising cap decreases the burden of a long-term deal like this on a percentage basis.
Second, Beniers is young enough that his point production can reasonably be expected to continue to improve. Among the comparable contract group, those players saw an average .21 point-per-game production increase after signing their new deals. If Beniers’ numbers see a similar uptick, he would settle in around a .83 point-per-game player going forward. This production would have ranked him 34th in the league this past season–almost precisely the same spot as his salary puts him.
Third, the team almost certainly values the narrative and public persona of Matty Beniers. Beniers was the Kraken’s first draft pick. He represented the team at the 2024 NHL Draft, announcing top pick Catton. He sits squarely at the center of conversations about the next captain of the Kraken. I’m sure the team would like Beniers–and his likable, professional demeanor–to be the face of the franchise moving forward. This has value beyond goals and assists.
Finally, I do believe it is fair to say Beniers’ point production doesn’t accurately convey his on-ice value. As Corey Sznajder of All Three Zones recently wrote, Beniers delivers excellent defensive zone and transition play, and this has value.
On the other hand, Beniers has not yet been able to compliment and buttress those ample skills with consistent offensive-zone play driving and shot generation. The best defense is the ability to trap the puck in the offensive zone. Only when Beniers gets more effective offensively will his defensive exploits truly get the recognition they deserve.
In the meantime, we risk overstating Beniers’ value by comparing his skills beyond the statsheet to Beniers’ childhood role model Patrice Bergeron. (Jordan Eberle made this comparison again recently to 93.3 FM KJR.) Bergeron was already a .9 point-per-game player in his age 20 season–a mark Beniers has not yet approached. Bergeron tilted the ice with his all-around game. Beniers is not in the same neighborhood offensively.
To the contrary, Beniers’ numbers at signing are much closer to those of ex-teammate Alex Wennberg when Wennberg signed a six-year contract with Columbus as a 22-year-old. Wennberg wasn’t among the comparables I analyzed because his contract accounted for only 6.5 percent of the cap in its first year. But, as noted above, AFP Analytics saw Wennberg as Beniers’ fourth-most similar player contract in projecting Beniers’ deal this summer.
As Kraken fans no doubt recall, Wennberg struggled to create his own shots too. Wennberg’s inability to grow into a more dynamic offensive game contributed to Columbus buying out his contract early. Wennberg’s career trajectory is a sobering cautionary tale. Beniers needs to take another step forward offensively to escape a similar trajectory.
6. The Collective Bargaining Agreement minimizes the risk here
While I don’t think the Beniers deal is necessarily a strong value based on market comparables, it is important to note that the Collective Bargain Agreement incentivizes big bets like this one on young talent. Until a player turns 26, a team has the option to buy out the remainder of a contract at just one-third of the remaining salary value.
With respect to Beniers, this means that if Beniers stagnates offensively or his injury issues grow, the team will have the option after each of the next four seasons to get out of the deal for a fraction of the cost. (As mentioned above, this is what the Blue Jackets did with Wennberg.) For this reason alone, a long-term bet on a player as talented as Matty Beniers is a good one. It’s mostly upside for the team.
7. Seattle’s cap sheet suggests another transaction may be coming
After accounting for Beniers’ new contract, the Seattle Kraken have just a few thousand dollars in cap space remaining with only 12 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders on the roster. This is two players short of the maximum roster limit.
Brandon Tanev (Brian Liesse/Photo)
The situation has the potential to become untenable very quickly should normal wear-and-tear injuries arise. If a player with a significant contract were to suffer a long-term injury, it could break the cap crunch by allowing the team cap relief associated with a so-called “LTIR” designation. But, as it stands, the team faces the risk of entering the season hamstrung from rostering even one extra forward. This is not how teams like to operate.
Accordingly, I would not be surprised if the Kraken are active in trade calls that could provide some relief. Forward Brandon Tanev is the most obvious candidate to move because he has on-ice value but a single year of a multi-million dollar cap hit and can be replaced by several players in the organization at a lower number. Other avenues are possible too but would likely require either a replacement piece coming back or a bigger roster shake-up.
This is one storyline to follow as we draw nearer to training camp.
Let’s get quizzical answer: Earlier this offseason, the Kraken re-signed first-ever signee Luke Henman and goalie Ales Stezka after their entry-level contracts expired.
Curtis Isacke
Curtis is a Sound Of Hockey contributor and member of the Kraken press corps. Curtis is an attorney by day, and he has read the NHL collective bargaining agreement and bylaws so you don’t have to. He can be found analyzing the Kraken, NHL Draft, and other hockey topics on Twitter and Bluesky @deepseahockey.
The guys are finding ways to stretch out their content to make it through the dog days of summer. Topics in the first 20 minutes of this episode include Sound Of Hockey Fest, Curtis returning from a long trip, Darren’s golf meltdown, and Darren watching some classic hockey. Still, it’s entertaining, so give it a listen!
Once they get through that rambling, the guys do discuss the Seattle Kraken in a few different ways, including discussing recent articles from soundofhockey.com and revisiting the new Matty Beniers contract.
Segments include Let’s Get Quizzical, Weekly One-Timers, Goalie Gear Corner, and What’s Good?
As the Kraken embark on their fourth season, Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord are set to again share time between the pipes. Seattle was a top-10 team in goals against (232) and save percentage (.909) during the 2023-24 season, but notably, it was the only top-10 team in goals against that missed the playoffs.
Kraken goaltending has improved every year since the team’s inception. Will it take another positive step in the upcoming season?
Goalies under contract
Grubauer and Daccord are the only two goaltenders under contract with NHL experience within the Kraken organization. Grubauer has three years remaining on his contract with an annual cap hit of $5.9 million. Daccord is entering the final year of his two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.2 million. General manager Ron Francis will need to make a decision on Daccord’s future within the next year, but at least to start the season, and barring injury, the goaltending positions do not appear to be open for competition.
How they fared last year
Grubauer has faced scrutiny for his performance over the first three years of his Kraken tenure, some of which is warranted; his save percentage has yet to eclipse .900 for a full season with Seattle. However, as Kraken goaltending as a whole has improved year over year, he too has taken positive steps with each campaign, with last season being his best statistically since joining the Kraken.
Grubauer missed two months due to a lower-body injury between December and February, limiting him to 36 games on the season. Even after he returned, then-coach Dave Hakstol continued running Daccord out as the starter for a couple more weeks before Grubauer finally returned to game action on Feb. 13, when he re-took the 1A goaltender role for the remainder of the season, playing in 19 games down the stretch.
During this span, he posted a .911 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average (GAA). If you exclude the game against Montreal on Mar. 24, when he was pulled, his save percentage improves to .918. The Kraken as a whole did not fare well in their final 30 games, going 13-14-3, but Grubauer was in net for nine of the 13 wins. He also faced tougher competition, starting seven games against playoff-bound teams compared to Daccord’s four. Grubauer finished the season with a 9-7-1 record over his last 17 starts.
The 2023-24 season marked Daccord’s full-time arrival in the NHL. The 27-year-old goaltender was not eligible to be considered a rookie but made a strong impression in his first full season. His standout moment came in front of 47,000 fans during the Winter Classic, where he shutout the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, 3-0.
He also played a key role in the Kraken’s franchise-best nine-game winning streak. Unfortunately, following the streak, the Kraken went 2-6-1 and fell out of playoff contention. Daccord finished the season with 50 games played and ranked sixth in the NHL in GAA (2.46) and save percentage (.915). However, he cooled off in the latter part of the season, finishing 4-7-2 with a .898 save percentage and a 2.73 GAA from mid-February onward.
Joey Daccord and Yanni Gourde answer questions following the 2024 Winter Classic. (Photo/Darren Brown)
Who is the starting goaltender?
Both goalies made a case to be the starter with their performances last season. But who will ultimately snag that “1A” role to start 2024-25?
The case for Grubauer
Grubauer finished last season strong and has the experience and contract to be the Kraken’s starter. Though that big contract isn’t the reason to give him the job, the Kraken (and I) want to see him succeed, and he’ll be given the opportunity to do so. At 32 years old, staying healthy, getting into a rhythm early in the season, and continuing his solid play from last season are crucial.
The case for Daccord
Daccord excelled when Grubauer was sidelined, leading the Kraken to a 12-7-3 record with a .935 save percentage and a 1.996 GAA—numbers that would be worthy of Vezina consideration if maintained for a full season. However, these numbers dropped once Grubauer returned, and the Kraken faded from the playoff discussion. New head coach Dan Bylsma has seen Daccord’s success firsthand for two years at the AHL level, which means he will not hesitate to swap goalies if either netminder struggles.
Philipp Grubauer (Photo/Brian Liesse)
Joey Daccord (Photo/Brian Liesse)
The “Starter”
My projection is the Kraken will likely continue their 1A/1B goaltender strategy in the 2024-25 season, with Grubauer starting as the 1A and Daccord as the 1B. I project a 60/40 split in starts, but this will be fluid as the season progresses. Hopefully, the coaching staff can get both goalies operating at peak performance, giving the Kraken a stable duo for the entire season. Grubauer’s play at the end of last season is the main reason for getting the 1A role, but he will have to work and continue to perform to keep it. Competition here is a good thing.
Coachella Valley Firebirds
Three goalies are expected to compete for the AHL affiliate roster this year.
Ales Stezka: Signed a one-year, two-way deal.
Niklas Kokko: Drafted in the second round of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.
Victor Ostman: Undrafted free agent signed from the University of Maine.
One of the younger goalies, Kokko or Ostman, will likely play in the ECHL with the Kansas City Mavericks. Kokko is transitioning from Liiga and will need time to adjust to the North American game. Ostman recently signed as a free agent out of college. My hunch is that Ostman will be assigned to the ECHL, Kokko will be the backup in Coachella Valley, and Stezka will be the starter. If the Kraken need to recall a goalie during the year, it will be interesting to see who they bring up. Stezka is waiver-eligible and could be claimed by another team, while Kokko and Ostman are exempt from waivers, though that shouldn’t prevent Stezka from getting a callup if he’s needed at the NHL level. All three goaltenders have zero NHL experience.
To be clear, goaltending was not the Kraken’s issue last year. With a solid blue line, if they can continue to improve in this area, they will be a very difficult team to score against. However, I expect some regression as the Kraken focus on increasing goal scoring, as the extra pressure to create offense could lead to defensive lapses. Bylsma has two quality goaltenders, but the depth chart ends there, so Seattle will also need good health from Daccord and Grubauer. Assuming both do remain healthy, competition between Grubauer and Daccord should help push each goaltender to get better.
I’m ready with the “Gruuuuuuu” and “Joey, Joey, Joey” chants when the Kraken hit the ice in a few weeks. If you have any comments or questions, please leave them below. You can find me on the X at @blaizg.
A few weeks ago, on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, we discussed whether the 2024-25 Seattle Kraken are a playoff team. The conclusion was that we don’t know yet. Talent-wise, they are better than last season’s roster, and their goal scoring should improve enough to give them a shot at reaching the postseason.
However, for every new team entering the playoff picture in a season, another playoff team from the previous year must drop out. To get a better idea of which teams might miss the playoffs to make room, I decided to forecast the goal scoring of all Pacific Division teams using the same methodology I used when forecasting the Kraken. This way, we can identify some of the potential teams that might drop out of the playoffs next spring.
Forecasting from the bottom up
Let me say this up front: forecasting is inherently flawed. You are making predictions and assumptions about things with many uncontrollable variables. Nobody knows who might suffer a serious injury or have a breakout year in goal scoring. We simply use the information we have and try to apply it to future outcomes. It’s not perfect, and running it through a more complex statistical model doesn’t guarantee it is “less wrong.”
I will keep it very simple by using a bottom-up approach to forecast the goals scored by every notable player on a roster. For NHL players, I will examine the last three seasons of games played, adjusted goals scored, and average goals scored per game. Then, I will estimate the number of games each team will play and multiply that by their average goals per game to get a forecasted adjusted-goals total for each player. For rookies expected to play in the league, I had to take a more subjective approach by looking at how similar rookies have performed in their first season.
Additionally, the number of games forecasted for a player is 75 games. I am well aware that there will be plenty of players that will play over 75, but injuries are part of the game, and on average I expect the top guys to play 75 games in the season.
The individual player goals forecast will be the least accurate because performance can vary as circumstances change. However, on the aggregate, the totals should be more accurate. That’s my way of saying: please don’t contact me in April to tell me how my forecast for Yegor Sharangovich was way off. It probably will be—I know it.
(**Editor’s note: But if John nails it on Sharangovich’s projection, please do contact him to tell him how brilliant he is.)
Anaheim Ducks
I forecast the Anaheim Ducks to score 231 adjusted goals in 2024-25, which is 35 more than last season. The increase is driven by rookie additions and full seasons from Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson. I’m assuming rookies Sam Colangelo (eight goals) and Cutter Gauthier (10 goals) will play 55 games, which might be optimistic in terms of both games played and goal scoring. Zegras only played in 31 games last season after suffering a broken leg, so that might be a bit high as well. He did play 75 and 81 games in the seasons prior to 2023-24, so he’s certainly capable of playing a full season without injury.
Defensively, it’s hard to forecast Anaheim’s deployments next season. The Ducks have shown a cautious approach to integrating players into the NHL, often scratching rookies to avoid overwhelming them in the first season. I assume Olen Zellweger will get more NHL playing time, but at whose expense? Jackson LaCombe and Urho Vaakanainen appear to be the most likely candidates to see a reduction in games, but neither contributes significantly to goal scoring.
Sniff test: I don’t think anyone is expecting much from the Ducks this coming season, so this goal forecast seems a little high. I can’t objectively find a reason to lower the forecast, so for now, I’ll keep it as is.
Calgary Flames
The Flames’ scoring projections are in line with their numbers from last year. They lost several pending free agents at the trade deadline and traded Andrew Mangiapane this offseason. Some of the lost goal scoring will be offset by a full season of Andrei Kuzmenko, who they acquired at the trade deadline, and the signing of Anthony Mantha in free agency. Additionally, Connor Zary looks to build upon his solid rookie season last year. The Flames’ first-round pick from 2021, Matthew Coronato, should also stick with the team this season.
Sniff test: This feels about right, but you wonder how much the losses of defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev will impact the rest of the team’s goal scoring. The Flames averaged 3.13 goals per game before Hanifin was traded on March 6 and scored 2.95 goals per game after the trade. Perhaps more telling about the state of the Flames is that they allowed 3.07 goals against per game before the Hanifin trade and 3.81 goals against per game after.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers didn’t have a problem scoring goals last season, with 280 adjusted goals—the most in the Pacific Division. This offseason, they added even more scoring with the acquisitions of Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, and Victor Arvidsson. These additions contributed 70 goals to their forecast. The losses of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg will have minimal impact on overall goal production next season.
Sniff test: This team is going to score a ton next season, but I think this forecast might be a bit too optimistic. A forecast of 315 adjusted goals is 18 more than the top team in the league (Toronto) had last season.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings lost a few goal-scoring pieces this offseason through free agency, including Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Lizotte, and Matt Roy. They also traded Carl Grundstrom to San Jose and sent the much-maligned Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Washington Capitals for Darcy Kuemper. None of those players are irreplaceable, but the sum of those departures amounts to 40 non-empty-net goals. They backfilled those losses with Tanner Jeannot and Warren Foegele, who collectively forecast at 26 adjusted goals next season. For the Kings to make up the difference, they’ll need young players like Quinton Byfield and Alexis Laferriere to take another step.
Sniff test: This forecast feels about right, but some of the young guys could break out with the additional opportunities provided by the departures. Additionally, Byfield is probably at least a 20-goal scorer next season, but Phillip Danault might be slowing down a bit. Either way, the Kings could be one of the vulnerable teams to lose their playoff spot from last season.
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks scored the second-fewest adjusted goals in the league with 176 last season. Two of their top goal scorers, Tomas Hertl and Anthony Duclair, were traded at the deadline. In the offseason, they added Tyler Toffoli, Barclay Goodrow, and former Kraken Alex Wennberg, but they need more than that if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The future looks bright for the Sharks with the drafting and signing of Macklin Celebrini and the signing of fourth overall forward Will Smith this offseason. They also appear to have a good young forward in William Eklund, and Thomas Bordeleau might have a chance to establish himself as an everyday NHLer. Oh, and they just traded for stud goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov.
They’re on the right path, but I only expect them to be slightly more competitive than last year, which wasn’t very competitive at all.
Sniff test: This seems accurate. The Sharks have a lot of youth on the roster but are very thin on experience, which should be a challenge for them this season.
Seattle Kraken
My Seattle Kraken forecast was posted separately a few weeks ago—check it out here. The increase in adjusted goal scoring is attributable to the free-agent signings of Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson, as well as the expected positive regression to the mean in goal scoring after a disappointing 2023-24 season in that category.
Sniff test: As I mentioned before, on paper, the team is better this season, but we don’t expect them to reach the same level of goal scoring as in the 2022-23 season. This feels about right.
Vancouver Canucks
The forecast for the Canucks is a drop of 16 adjusted goals from last season. The decline is primarily driven by a projected decrease in goal production from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, who both had career highs in goals last season. The Canucks did add Jake DeBrusk in the offseason, which will help replace the goals lost with Andrei Kuzmenko (trade deadline) and Sam Lafferty (free agency). Assuming their goaltending remains stable, the Canucks look formidable again.
Sniff test: Last season, the Canucks had one of the highest shooting percentages in the league, so even Canucks fans might expect a bit of a regression. Even with a 16-goal drop next season, the Canucks are still a playoff team, and that seems accurate.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forecasting Vegas is challenging. They saw several departures this offseason, including 42-goal scorer Jonathan Marchessault, who signed in Nashville, and 16-goal scorer Chandler Stephenson, who signed with Seattle. Offsetting those departures, they acquired Alexander Holtz from New Jersey and signed Victor Olofsson in free agency. Holtz is an up-and-comer who could thrive with more opportunities in Vegas, while Olofsson is just two seasons removed from a 28-goal season in Buffalo. Additionally, if they stay healthy, the Golden Knights should have full seasons from Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone. My forecast estimates 60 and 50 games, respectively, for those two players given their injury history.
Sniff test: It seems like every season we expect the Golden Knights to drop in the standings, but they continue to prove us wrong. They seem like the most likely team to drop out of the playoffs, but there is still a lot of high-end talent on this team.
Summary
This is what it looks like when we put all the Pacific Division teams together.
I know what you’re thinking—how convenient that a writer (and unabashed fan) covering the Seattle Kraken predicts the Kraken will see the biggest increase in goals next season. It’s more than fair to be skeptical—I’m a bit skeptical myself. I did use the same methodology for all teams, but my intimate knowledge of the Kraken could have inadvertently impacted my approach. If nothing else, this was a good primer for the upcoming season, highlighting the roster changes in the Pacific Division and how those changes might play out.
What are your thoughts? Are there any blatant errors in the assumptions?
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