The New York Rangers were swept out of the NHL’s play-in round this summer. While that loss felt like a setback at the time the Rangers ended up big winners by winning the Draft Lottery that followed. New York jump-started its rebuild by taking a franchise-type player in Alexis Lafreniere. How will this all impact the Rangers in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft?
With a good mix of young stars, the Rangers rebuild is in full swing and New York general manager Jeff Gorton is going to protect his core from the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
Gorton has obvious players he’s going to protect but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some tough decisions to be made.
He isn’t hampered by the salary cap heading into the 2021-2022 season and while his star players will be protected, Seattle will get to choose between some talented, albeit young, players. Like many teams preparing for the Seattle Expansion Draft, performances in the upcoming season will determine which of those players Kraken general manager Ron Francis will have available to him.
Assumptions
New York has just under $5 million in cap space and should be good enough to fight for a playoff spot this coming season. Could they be buyers at the trade deadline? Even with the flat cap hindering teams, the Rangers could conceivably swing a deal and add some salary at the deadline. What they give up will have an impact on who they end up protecting.
There is also the possibility that New York could sell at the deadline and try to offload higher salaried players like Ryan Strome or Jacob Trouba. Both players are over $4.5 million dollar guys and would be attractive pieces for contenders. Will the flat cap limit the number of buyers though? It’s another of the many questions that will affect the Expansion Draft for Seattle. For this exercise, we’ll assume that neither player is moved at the deadline.
Roster Wildcards
Defenseman Brendan Smith is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. The veteran of 478 games is a solid, left defenseman but he’s unlikely to be attractive to Seattle either before the Seattle Expansion Draft or after.
Many of New York’s exciting young players are exempt from the draft. That list includes Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox, and K’Andre Miller.
Protected List
Forwards
- Artemi Panerin (NMC)
- Chris Kreider (NMC)
- Mika Zibanejad (NMC)
- Pavel Buchnevich
- Filip Chytil
- Ryan Strome
- Julian Gauthier
The Rangers have to protect Artemi Panerin, Chris Kreider, and Mika Zibanejad due to all three having no-move clauses on their contracts. These players would be protected without the clauses so there is no surprise here.
It gets interesting for the Rangers when you look at the sixth or seventh forward they protect.
One veteran player to watch is Ryan Strome. The 27-year-old will be entering his second full season with the Rangers and has two more years left on his $4.5 million contract. If he is not in New York’s long-term plans it wouldn’t be a shock to see him exposed and dangled in front of the Kraken who would only be on the hook for one season.
Strome is a productive player. He had a career-best 59 points last season with the Rangers and is a decent possession player.
Outside of Strome, New York’s decision on protecting forwards will come down to some young players who all show some promise – which is good news for the Kraken.
One of Julian Gauthier, Brendan Lemieux, or Brett Howden will be left unprotected. Gauthier was drafted by the Carolina Hurricanes and Ron Francis in the first round of the 2016 NHL Draft. The Rangers picked him up in a trade deadline move this past season. He’s 23-years-old and coming off of productive AHL seasons with the Charlotte Checkers.
Lemieux, 24, is another young guy who hasn’t had the offensive output yet and is still trying to find his footing after starting his career with the Jets. Howden has two seasons of NHL hockey under his belt with New York and was a prolific scorer in junior with the Moose Jaw Warriors of the WHL. So far in the NHL, the 22-year-old has shown some scoring touch but has been a liability in his own end. Last season at five-on-five he was a 40-percent Corsi-For player and that poor possession game most likely means he’ll be exposed here.
Any of these three can play their way into protection by producing this season. A couple of months before the start of the season Gauthier has the most upside on paper. But he also has the least amount of NHL track record so he’ll still need to prove it.
Defense:
- Jacob Trouba (NMC)
- Anthony Deangelo
- Ryan Lindgren
The Rangers defense is less complicated in terms of protection. Jacob Trouba has a no-move clause in his contract and therefore will have to be protected. Anthony Deangelo just turned in a career-best 53-point season so the 25-year-old will also be protected. Ryan Lindgren, 22, is coming off a strong rookie campaign and will round out the protection list for New York.
Goalie
- Alexandar Georgiev
The Rangers had too many goalies last year, but with Henrik Lundqvist now in Washington, their decision here will be a no-brainer. Alexandar Georgiev will take over the number one spot in net and will be protected.
Igor Shesterken has not played enough to be eligible for the Seattle Expansion Draft so he will be exempt, and no protection will be needed. New York has to have a qualified goalie to expose and they signed veteran Keith Kinkaid to meet that requirement.
Top Candidates for Seattle Expansion Draft
Forwards
- Brendan Lemiuex
- Brett Howden
- Tim Gettinger
Defense
- Libor Hajek
- Anthony Bitetto
Goalie
- Keith Kinkaid
Thoughts
Seattle should look at one of the forwards exposed by the Rangers. If New York ends up leaving Strome off the protected list, he would be a good choice. Strome is still productive and would only have one year left on his contract. His $4.5 million salary would help the Kraken get to the required cap floor along with providing the always important veteran presence.
Gauthier would also be a strong pick if he’s available. Francis has already drafted him once and the only real question is if he can replicate what he’s done at the AHL level in the NHL. It feels more likely that the Rangers will protect a young asset like Gauthier but it may end up being a matter of how well the other forwards play.
It’s definitely possible that it will come down to a choice between Lemieux or Howden for the Kraken. It’s hard to see either as a top-six forward but both have some NHL experience and that could be key. Howden probably has the better offensive upside but will have to clean up the play in his own end and become the cliché 200-foot player.
Side Deal Scenarios
There aren’t any obvious side deal targets on the Rangers roster. Gorton played it straight during the Vegas Expansion Draft and he’ll do the same here. Heading into the coming year the Rangers have cap space and don’t have any crushing contracts that they’ll be dying to get rid of.
Andy, a good article as usual. But there are some things you failed to mention, or your assumptions were a bit off.
Number one starts with both Strome and DeAngelo. If the Rangers look like they are going to be out of the playoffs, in the assumed very tough N.E. Division, with Boston, the Islanders, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina, NJ and an improved Buffalo team, it may be tough for the Rangers to make the playoffs. They were just .500 against both NJ and Buffalo last season. If they don’t make the playoffs, they could very well be sellers come the trade deadline and Tony D and Strome, could be dangled as trade bait, to get a #2 or strong defensive minded #3 center with offensive upside, that plays with an edge. NY plays the game a bit soft and need to add grit, and also Buchnevich could be trade bait.
They are a bit weak on the Lt. defense, until some of their promising young prospects are ready to step in, DeAngelo will probably be switched over to play the left side this season, where he played in Juniors. When K’Andre Miller*, a highly anticipated left shot blueliner is ready, he will be with the Rangers, but he will more than likely start the season in the AHL. (*more on that later*) He could surprise and make the big club out of camp, but I am assuming he starts in Hartford, for seasoning*. Another highly anticipated left shot defender is Nils Lundkvist*, who is playing in Sweden in their highest men’s league and doing very well. Once their season is done, he very well could come over to North America and play. The thing is, he has yet to sign his ELC, but the Rangers will take care of that.
Vitali Kravtsov* is another promising forward and is now playing in the KHL and doing very well. He will more than likely finish out their season, before coming back to the Rangers, although the Rangers could call him back at any time*. The team also signed three college free agent centers and it is said that Morgan Barron* is close to being NHL ready, and could possibly make the Rangers out of camp. He’s big, fast, plays with an edge and can score. The other two are highly regarded centers as well and that’s not mentioning the stock pile of young drafted centermen, that are likely 2-3 years away. Strome could very well be expendable.
So Strome could be traded and so could DeAngelo. Chytil is possibly the #2 center of the future, because he is more responsible in his own end than Strome and has a higher upside, in my opinion. It all depends on where the Rangers are at the trade deadline and if Strome has another strong season playing along side of Panarin. Were Strome’s numbers inflated, because he played with The Bread Man? If he doesn’t play well, Chytil could very well move to #2 center, coming out of camp and Strome will be moved down to #3. He’s an expensive #3 center.
DeAngelo becomes expendable because once Miller* and Lundkvist* are ready, he would be a very high priced 3d pairing defenseman. He’s great on the PP and led all NY defenders in points last season, but Trouba and Fox aren’t going anywhere and they would be above DeAngelo on the depth chart. All three are puck carrying and scoring right shot defenders, but Trouba and Fox are more responsible in their own end. Lindgren is a great defensive minded D-man and plays with grit….he stays with NY. Trouba had a bit of a hard time adjusting to the different style in NY, but once the All Star game was over, his game improved. They just got him last season and his contract would be very hard to move. It looks like Tony D could be the odd man out. That being said, I doubt the Rangers would expose him in the Expansion draft and get nothing for him, unless there IS a side deal worked out. More than likely he would be traded, because teams are always looking for right shot, offensive minded D-men, so he would be a valuable trade asset.
Howden has not performed well and is better playing wing, than center. He seems lost playing center, so he’s been moved to wing. During the off season, the Rangers signed center Kevin Rooney to a one year deal and he may take over the #4 center spot. Howden will most definitely be exposed. Lemieux will never be a scorer, but he is one of a few Rangers to play with an edge, so if he does well within his game, the Rangers more than likely will try to find a way to keep him as a 4th liner. Hajek has also been a big disappointment and will more than likely be left exposed. They are expecting Gauthier to be a 3d or even possibly a 2nd line RW, although more than likely on the 3d line, so I expect he will be protected. Gettinger played well in the few games he got to play in NY.
Lot’s of different scenarios above……
The second thing you failed to mention is the fact that yes on paper, the Rangers do have $5 million in cap space, but realistically it isn’t nearly that much. You aren’t taking into account *performance bonuses* the Rangers may have to dish out, to the tune of $3.5 million, which would leave them with only $1.5 mil to work with, assuming all those bonuses will have to be paid. That’s why I believe some of the highly regarded prospects (Miller, Barron and a couple others) start their season in the AHL and some (Kravtsov, Lundkvist and a couple others) will play out their seasons in Europe, before starting the season in NY, because of the performance bonuses. Of course they may very well play themselves onto the starting lineup, forcing the team’s hand and therefore paying the bonuses. So unless they can somehow get Smith or someone like that off the books, adding another player before camp is unlikely. I think they keep Smith around for awhile, because he is a LD, who can also play the wing in a pinch, which he has done in the past. Smith will be an UFA after the season, like you said, but I don’t see Seattle taking him, unless they like his versatility.
Number three….In Goal, Shesterkin will be the number one guy out of the gate, it is his position to lose. Not that Georgiev is bad and probably good enough to be #1 on a lot of teams, but Shestyorkin is going to be the man. I do believe it will be a 1-A, 1-B situation, but Shesterkin will be 1-A. He’s not eligible anyway and Georgiev doesn’t have to be exposed. The Rangers also have a couple goalie prospects they want to protect, so that is why Kinkaid was signed. Kinkaid is just an insurance policy and also can be exposed to the expansion draft and why the Rangers signed him. Georgiev could very well be trait bait down the road, depending on how well Shesterkin plays. Also their contracts are up the same year (ELC and RFA with arbitration rights) and they will be due raises, so it may be too expensive to keep both.
These are not criticisms, just things not taken into account and like I said, there are even more scenarios than ones I mentioned. I don’t think the Rangers will loose any real assets to Seattle, but a change in scenery for some of the young disappointing players, could be interesting for Seattle to take a chance on.
J, June
John – you wrote your own article. But added a lot of information about the Rangers that has very little to do with the expansion draft.
Though, as a huge Rangers fan, it’s exciting to see someone else on the Kraken forums with good knowledge of the team.
It comes down to 4 players. Strome, Gauthier, Howden, and Lemieux. 2 of them get protected and 2 of them get exposed.
Buch and Chytil should be almost locks for protection, but I do agree Buch if he plays poorly could be dangled as trade bait. I don’t think this happens.
Strome will again have Panarin has his main line mate and hopefully continues to build on their chemistry. Bc of that, I say he get protected.
Howden needs a strong bounce back year if he wants to be protected. I don’t think he will do enough to earn that. But could do enough to earn a hard look from Seattle.
Lemieux is my wild card. He doesn’t bring a lot of offense, but brings an aggressive style that the Rangers need. My question is could Lemieux play his way above Gauthier and Howden and be protected?
Gauthier – I haven’t seen much of him, but I’ve read his potential is very high. Does playing with Lafreniere help him and take the next step towards earning a key role on this team?
Hajek is the only defensemen the Kraken will likely look at. I am betting the pool of available defensemen will be deep and this may knock Hajek from potentially being taken by Seattle.
If Gauthier isn’t protected, he’s likely guaranteed to be picked. If he is, then I’m betting Howden or Lemieux get picked. I don’t see the potential for Gettinger unless the Kraken are able to get all the nhl ready forwards they want prior to looking at NY.