The Seattle Kraken have been on an incredible run since my last Monday musings on Dec. 18. They went 6-0-1 in that span and looked very similar to the 100-point team we saw last season. This group is confident and appears to be having a bit of fun out there. But what has changed?
One significant factor is the defensive mindset and attention to detail. Darren Brown wrote an excellent piece breaking down the changes that transpired over the last month or so. If you haven’t read it yet, go check it out. There is no denying that Joey Daccord has been great in net, but the team has also been very effective at limiting quality shots in front of him.
While the team hasn’t been scoring a ton over the last 10 games, averaging 3.2 goals per game since the point streak started on Dec. 12 (roughly league average over that timeframe), they are allowing just 1.3 goals against, which is the lowest in the NHL.
Depth scoring is back
The team might not be scoring as much as they were last season, but production from up and down the lineup is back. 17 players have scored goals since the Kraken went on their point streak, with Eeli Tolvanen and Kailer Yamamoto having the most goals in that stretch with four each. It seems like every night there is a new group of players scoring for the Kraken, a hallmark of last season’s success.
Scoring first
One thing I have observed lately is the Kraken’s ability to score first and then hold leads, which it struggled with earlier in the campaign. At the beginning of the season, in games where they scored first, the Kraken had a losing record. During the months of October and November, they scored first in 12 games, winning just four of those, equating to a league-worst .333 win percentage when scoring the opening goal.
Fast forward to the point streak, where they have scored first in eight out of the 10 games and have a winning percentage of .875. Not only are they scoring first more frequently, but they are also winning those games at a much higher rate than at the beginning of the season.
A quick note on the Winter Classic
The Winter Classic happened over a week ago, but I continue to think about what an absolute perfect day it was to showcase how much this city has embraced this team in two and a half seasons. I always had conviction for this sport in this city, but this team continues to exceed my expectations off the ice. It has been an extraordinary journey, and hats off to all the people that have worked for this team, directly and indirectly, leading to the Winter Classic being such a special day.
Other musings
- There have been 27 teams that had exactly 41 points at the 39-game mark since the 2005-06 season. Of those teams, 11 qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That’s about a 41-percent chance. If you had told me last month that the Kraken would have a 41-percent chance of making the playoffs, I would have thought you were crazy.
- Now that Andre Burakovsky is back, it seems coach Dave Hakstol is still not settled on where he fits into the lineup. Burakovsky has mostly played on the fourth line with Kailer Yamamoto and Tye Kartye since his return, but he has also spent time with Alex Wennberg and Brandon Tanev.
- The lines will get even more mixed up once Jaden Schwartz comes back, which we think could happen Tuesday. He is traveling with the team on this road trip, implying his return is imminent.
- It’s hard to even say from the below which is the “fourth line,” but we believe the line with Jared McCann and Burakovsky was listed at the bottom of the line chart for Seattle at practice on Saturday. If this lineup sticks for Tuesday’s game at Buffalo, that’s a heckuva fourth line. It will be interesting to see how Hakstol deploys a very deep forward corps.
Tatar – Beniers – Eberle
Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev
Tolvanen – Gourde – Bjorkstrand
McCann – Kartye – Burakovsky
Shore / Yamamoto
- I have really enjoyed watching Tomas Tatar on the Kraken. I have no idea why it wasn’t working in Colorado, but he clearly still has a lot of skill. He scored his third goal with the Kraken last Friday against Ottawa in his eighth game. He only had one goal in 27 games with Colorado this season.
- I’m looking forward to Chris Driedger getting a start or two on this road trip. It was great to see him win and perform well in his first start since 2022 when he beat the Calgary Flames on Dec. 27. Being that he is in the last year of his current contract, I would like to see him showcase his talent for potential landing spots next season.
- In case you did not know, Driedger will require waivers if the Kraken send him down to Coachella Valley when Philipp Grubauer returns from injury.
- There are seven teams that could knock the Kraken out of a Western Conference wild card spot at the end of the season. Edmonton and Minnesota are the two teams I am most concerned about at this point. It is too early for it, but I am already scoreboard watching. I loved seeing Chicago beat Calgary in regulation on Sunday, thanks to former Kraken Colin Blackwell scoring two goals.
- With so many Kraken prospects in the tournament, I enjoyed the IIHF World Junior Championship even more than normal this year. It was fun to watch all of them, but Jani Nyman and Carson Rehkopf were the standouts for me. I imagine Nyman could be playing in North America next year, and Rehkopf likely has one more year in the OHL.
- Speaking of Rehkopf, he didn’t waste much time getting back into the swing of things in Kitchener.
Player performances
Joey Daccord (SEA) – Joey is 5-0-1 since Dec. 18 and has the highest save percentage in the league over that stretch. The team in front of him has played better defensively, but Joey has been coming up huge.
Ales Stezka (CVF/SEA) – Stezka notched his first AHL shutout on Saturday night against the Abbotsford Canucks. He has a .980 save percentage over his last two games.
Eduard Sale (CZE/SEA) – The Kraken’s first-round selection from the 2023 NHL Draft had seven points in seven games during the World Junior Championship. He still has one more year of eligibility to play in the WJC, so it will be interesting to see if he returns next season.
Chart of the week
As mentioned above, a key factor contributing to turning this season around is the emphasis on defense and limiting goals against. The chart illustrates the reduction in goals allowed by the Kraken this season and compares it to other teams.
Goal of the week
Nyman had numerous highlights in the WJC, and one of the standout moments was his shootout goal that secured the victory for Finland over Sweden.
The week ahead
The Kraken embark on a six-game road trip, with the initial three matchups appearing relatively favorable. Seattle faces Buffalo on Tuesday, Washington on Thursday, and Columbus on Saturday. The team should aim to secure at least four points in those three. Key areas to watch include Burakovsky’s deployment in the lineup, Schwartz’s return, and the performance of the power play.
While there is currently no significant concern about the power play, the team has only scored one goal in eight opportunities over the last four games. The Kraken haven’t appeared particularly threatening with the man advantage lately, and it would be beneficial to see an improvement before it becomes an issue.
Feel free to leave any questions, feedback, or areas of exploration in the comment section. I appreciate your support.
It’s nice to see the Kraken have improved defensively over last season’s team. That squad was a miserable No.2 in the league in expected goals against according to Natural Stat Trick.
Silly me, I probably would’ve thought the improvement in goals against was the goaltending… and by goaltending… I mean Joey Daccord. But when I dig into the numbers I see that since Gru went down the Kraken are only giving up 2.78 goals per game… only .02 MORE than the 2.76 they averaged last season. But of course this team started out slow. And defensively, they were definitely worse. Before Grubauer went down they were allowing a whopping 2.83 xGA… .05 more than since he went down. A crippling 1 expected goal (not goal, expected goal) every 20 games.
Oh… but wait… it’s the number of high danger chances… right? Well after the “11” high-danger” chances against and 3.69 xGA that Joey turned into a “near shutout” against Ottawa… I think we should put that story to rest. Again, thank you Natural Stat Trick.
I feel like I’m being a real pain in the ass about this, and I’m sure it’s annoying… but I cannot believe we have been watching one of the absolute best goalie performances in the NHL this season over the past month – and by far the best goaltending the Kraken have ever experienced – and we want to pretend it’s the defense. Why? Grubauer? Really?
Ha somehow I knew you’d be there with me to fight the good fight. Joey has been almost ALL the difference. Team defense has basically been unchanged. Darren cherry picked that one stat so he could write an article about it, but in aggregate, nothing has changed except we’ve had the best goaltending in the league (by A LOT) for the past 10 games.
I think Darren was just leaning into numbers John has been tracking… and to be fair… the team has been saying a lot of these same things. With the exception of Yanni pointing out they’ve always been a defense first team, there seems to be a real effort to find an alternative to the idea that replacing Grubauer is the real difference here. And again, to be fair, Joey has been amazing… and it’s obvious he’s not THIS good… no goalie is… but this effort to so significantly qualify his performance with this “new defensive commitment” illusion sounds like an effort to alleviate Grubauer of responsibility for his underperformance.
You’re obviously, absolutely right. Darren’s article only compared high-danger shots from the point streak against high-danger shots during the losing streak — omitting everything before the losing streak. That is cherry-picking and doesn’t support the notion that they had a new change in “mindset” versus the rest of the season to date.
It is a traditionalist cultural thing in hockey that we are not allowed to emphasize the impact of goaltending, even when it is the main thing going on. Joey is playing absolutely out of his mind, and that explains the point streak. End of story. Hopefully he keeps it up, or at least settles into a higher level than Grubauer. And there is at least some hope that the scoring will tick up with all of the forwards back, which could offset any regression from Joey.
I probably undersold Joey’s contribution, but I did say there is no denying he has been great “but”. I think Joey’s best games have been the last four games and was trying to talk about the win streak as a whole. I tend to over index toward High Danger Shots when evaluating a team’s defense and the HDSA average per game has dropped a lot since the beginning of the season and last season. I know xGA takes volume of HDSA into account, but something has always felt weird that high volume of LDSA can raise the xGA.
I love Joey and think he is play outstanding. My eyes tell me this is the most comfortable he has looked and definitely the best we have seen a Kraken goalie perform.
Focusing on HDSA certainly seems to make sense, especially considering Grubauer and Daccord have two of the worst HDSV%s in the league. Before December 10th Seattle was fourth in the league at 10.66. Since then they’re third at 9.05… definitely a significant difference. I do think, however, Joey’s low and medium danger save percentage are making a big difference. His numbers are in the upper reaches of the league and significantly better than Gru. He’s making the saves he’s supposed to… that’s huge.
Less HDCA is great, but going from fourth to third in the league should be a good indication of the limits of that effort. It seems to me, if you’re one of the top five teams in high danger shots against AND expected goals against… your goaltending should be above .903 – league average.
Honestly… who really knows why? I just hope it keeps on rolling!
Monday Musings are always great.
Go Kraken!!!
“There is no denying that Joey Daccord has been great in net, but the team has also been very effective at limiting quality shots in front of him…As mentioned above, a key factor contributing to turning this season around is the emphasis on defense and limiting goals against.”
I disagree with the premise of Darren’s article, and with you all underselling how phenomenal Joey has been. The fact that you even put a “but” in the sentence describing Daccord being great means you really don’t realize how awesome he’s been.
During the 8 game losing streak, they did allow more HDC than the current 10 game point streak, but they’ve also allowed more shots overall during the point streak, which more than offsets the reduced HDCA. This has resulted in them actually allowing MORE xG during the 10G point streak than the 8G losing streak (2.84/G vs 2.75/G). So, using HDCA supports Darren’s thesis about better team defense, but it tells an incomplete story based on the stats. The team defense has been basically unchanged overall, if not a bit worse, during the current streak.
The real story is, of course, Joey. During the losing streak, Gru and Joey combined for -5.83 GSAX. During the 10 game point streak, Joey has an astonishing +16.19 GSAA, and when combined with Driedger (+2.76), they’ve more than doubled the next best team goaltending during that timeframe. He’s been otherworldly good, and the best goaltender in the NHL by a country mile. I don’t think stats tell the whole story, but if you’re going to use stats, might as well use them for Joey, and his are way, way more impressive than the team D stats during the current streak.
(All stats via naturalstattrick)
[Yells into room]: “Hey, great article, Darren!” [Hides for cover as rotten vegetables and various rusty weapons begin hurtling through air.]
We love you Darren!!
While I’m here, I might as well defend myself a little. I only wrote that article about the change in mindset because the coach explicitly called it out after the WC, and I thought it was interesting to dig into it a bit with the players. That’s all. Wasn’t trying to take anything away from Joey, who, yes, has been playing out of his mind, and who I think I’ve written about in almost every Three Takeaways lately.
I mentioned elsewhere the team has been saying all the same things about the defense… and other people I also respect as much as the SOH crew – like Alison Lukan – have been saying the same.
Certainly everyone I’ve mentioned above knows more about hockey than I do… but I’m just not finding it in the numbers… and what I’m seeing in net IS showing up in the numbers. Now if only they could score a little more.
AND… I only remember one guy saying Tatar was anything more than “plugging holes”. That’s obviously been a real bonus move.
One other thing… what’s up with Driedger? Jihn mentioned that he’ll now have to clear waivers. Capfriendly shows him on and “emergency loan”… could Curtis maybe do a deep dive on the situation?
Go Kraken!!!
… and thanks John, Darren, and Curtis.
If CapFriendly is correct, that Driedger was called up on an Emergency Loan then my understanding is the following applies:
As per normal recalls, players on Emergency Loan for 30+ days or 10+ games (whichever occurs first) are required to go back through waivers.
However, a player can spend 29days/9 games, on the NHL roster, and be reassigned back to the AHL without going through waivers. Then the same player can be immediately recalled in the normal manner for a further 29days/9games before having to go through waivers.
So in total we could have Driedger for 58days/18 games and still not need to send him through waivers.
January 8th is 29 days after he was called up on Emergency Loan on December 10th, so I would think we should see some ‘paper-only’ moves occur today that send him back and recall him normally to extend his waiver-free recall until February 7th.
I believe a wise man once said, “You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, you can’t please all of the people all of the time, but you can blame Philipp Grubauer for all of the team’s problems all of the time…”
What seems so obvious to me, and has for three seasons now, is that the Kraken need to dump Grubauer.
Rather than take the risk of losing CD to waivers, send PG down to the AHL. He only has a NTC, not NMC, and so cannot stop it.
I know he still has a full NTC through this season, but really think Francis should lean into trading PG. He could ask him, with the not so subtle implication that is he does not agree, it will happen this summer anyway. Send him to a contender and he should buy in.
The guy has been a massive disappointment and Francis’ worst decision so far. Rip of the bandage, demote PG, and leave him in the AHL and he will welcome a trade.
There are enough goalie starved teams out there who would take him, perhaps with a bit of salary retention. Then use the extra cap space to get CD re-signed at a lower AAV for next year and join the trade parade for Lindholm.
Francis would have to send a bunch of picks out the door to “dump” Grubauer. He’s not gonna do that.
No team that needs a goalie is taking on three years of Grubauer… even with retention…. he is untradeable… period. I agree with sending him down, and Driedger’s call up/waiver situation makes me wonder if that not on the table. To me, their best option seems to be buying him out after next season. But there are actually a ton of people that think he’s fine and it’s the team in front of him. I honestly don’t know how anyone could think his game and his contract are consistent with one another. If he’s fine, he’s not $5.9m fine… probably a lot closer to league minimum.
What are realistic options for what we can do with Gru’s contract? He shouldn’t return to being the starter or anything close to a 50/50 situation. We can go another season with his $5.9 and Joey’s $1.2, but Joey is a UFA after that. Do you save anything by cutting him/buying him out like some NBA or NFL contracts or is it $5.9 of dead money annually until 2028? Is there another reclamation project at a different position with a similar contract we could trade for?
I’ve always wondered how this team would be in the alternative universe they don’t sign Gru before year 1, spent somewhere else, and went with the Driedger/Daccord/Vanecek in goal.
In the “no Gru” alternative universe… there’s no Carson Rehkopf. The pick Seattle got for trading Vanecek back to DC after they signed Grubauer turned out to be Carson Rehkopf… that’s the “silver lining”. Honestly, there’s just no realistic assumptions to be made… but it seems pretty undeniable that Grubauer has not been a $5.9m goalie… and it’s not the team in front of him or the “new surroundings” or the price of diesel… it’s him.
NHL contracts are not renegotiable like NFL contracts, it cannot be changed. It can be bought out, but this typically doubles the length of term remaining and the cap savings are unevenly distributed. If you go to Capfriendly and look up Grubauer there is a “Buyout Current Contract” tool. There are two buyout windows and they are both during the off-season. If Seattle bought him out after this season the cap hit is ~$1m next season… but then it jumps to $2.2m… then $3.3m. Then, instead of being done with him they have an additional three seasons at $1.877m… all dead cap space until the summer of 2030!
If they play him through next season the buyout dead cap only last four years instead of six and is only about $8m instead of $12m.
I think if Joey continues at anything above NHL average they should keep him as the No.1 – not in an “even split” arrangement – and give Grubauer one more season as a clear No.2… but he should rehab that pesky groin in Coachella for the rest of this season. If that Calgary game was any indication, it did wonders for Driedger.
Again, if Joey continues to perform, they can resign him during next season and then decide what to do with Grubauer. As far as trading him goes… I’ve said it before, it might be the most untradeable contact in the league.
I am not sure that any starting goalie is untradeable. Given his success with the Caps and Avs, Grubauer has a market value, it is just finding that, and putting his Kraken years down to a bad fit.
A buy-out costs the Kraken $12m over 6 years. Salary retention of say $1.5m/season costs the Kraken about $5m over 3+ years. So a trade is a better way to go.
There are so many teams with struggling goaltending. If they were offered a starting goalie whose total cost over 3+ years was around $14m, I can see that being tempting.
NJ for sure. Edm, Buff, SJ, Chi, Car, CBJ, and Minn all need a different solution. Ott too but they are kind of locked in salary wise. Ariz, if they trade Vejmelka. Lots of potential destinations, and teams with cap space. Francis just needs to admit his error and decide to fix it.
None of the teams you mentioned are going anywhere near Grubauer. Several teams need goaltending, but none of them need .884 in net. That’s 58th out of 62 netminders with 10 or more starts. There are other options out there, quality options. Nobody is trading for Grubauer. Even if they retained half, they’d have to throw in at least a first… at least… and even then… I doubt it. I think the deal that moves Grubauer is a deal no sensible GM would make… and Francis is definitely sensible.
Disappointing to see the team recall Evans only to sit him (if the nhl.com lineups page is accurate). He needs to play, and he is already, right now, clearly better than at least one d-man in the lineup (Dumoulin). Hopefully he is just scratched for one game to ease him back into things.
I’m also a little disappointed they are playing Tanev on his off wing and scratching Yamamoto to fit Schwartz. I love Tanev, he’s fun and energetic, but he is clearly the weakest forward in this group right now (which shows how deep they are in at-least-decent NHL forwards).
Still can’t reply to a reply, for some reason, so will reply to djdw00’s last comments here.
While we agree Grubauer’s performance over three seasons does not come anywhere near his AAV, his performance before that got him that contract. Goalies often go through bad years, sometimes several, and then reemerge as their former selves.
You have to look no further than Bobrovsky recently or this season Quick. Goalies changing to better teams often improve, just look at Hill, Talbot, DeSmith, or Gustavsson. The list is pretty long. They don’t call it voodoo for no reason.
Teams know this and so, given how barren the goalie market is and how high prices are, and how desperate teams like NJ are, it is purely a matter of Francis admitting his mistake, getting Grubauer’s buy-in, and taking that to market.
If you don’t agree, that is fine, time will tell. What we both agree on is that Grubauer should not see the net again for the Kraken. Francis should work out an extension for Driedger and then the team is set in the net.
“Many of our experts thought Grubauer was the product of an Avs team that had the puck a lot last season and now will be exposed after getting a big payday with Seattle”.
That’s from an Athletic panel of more than three dozen experts – NHL general managers, head coaches, goalie coaches, goalie gurus and former goalies… and that’s after just being a Vezina finalists! One former goalie said, “Overrated, plain and simple”. I don’t think Grubauer is considered a former “top tier” goalie.
As far as goalies who re-emerge as their former selves… that absolutely happens. But other than a solid series against his former team, Grubauer hasn’t given any indication he could be the goalie most people think he never was.
Add in the injury history and I just cannot see how any team would be even remotely interested in Grubauer. There are much better options out there. Even Edmonton would rather have Jack Campbell – whose down in the AHL – for $2m a year less.
Untradeable.
Also reading this morning that Jacob Markstrom might be available. Why on earth would a team trade for Grubauer when they could get .908 vs .884, 2.68 vs 3.25 GAA, and 9th vs 45th in GSAx/60 for the same AAV and one year less?