What the Kraken can do with their pending unrestricted free agents (Part I)

The Kraken are inching closer to a major inflection point in their season, when their front office will need to decide which players with expiring (or soon to expire) contracts should be kept and which ones should be moved on to new teams. As Seattle has floundered over the past week, we’ve begun thinking again about what the team might do if it has to be a seller at the NHL Trade Deadline, which falls on March 8.

In this two-part series, we’re going to look at all the players on expiring contracts, focusing first on the older ones (over 30 years old) in Part I, then shifting in Part II to those under 30.

For Part I, we think it will be a useful exercise to go through each pending UFA, discuss what he brings to the Kraken, and consider if the team should re-sign the player or look to trade him if in a selling position.

Let us start with a definition for unrestricted free agent (UFA). A UFA is a player who is not under contract and is free to sign a deal with any NHL team. Players are considered UFA’s if they are 27 years of age or older or have played at least seven NHL seasons. UFA’s can only negotiate/re-sign with their current team during the season, but once free agency opens in the summer, they can sign anywhere. Talks with other NHL clubs can start after the NHL Draft on June 29, and players can officially sign with other clubs on July 1.

Possible trade returns

It is hard to get exact value of what a player will return in a trade. There are many factors that play into trades, such as team salary cap situation, player age, player performance, salary retainment, and contract term remaining. For this exercise, trades over the last three years were reviewed, and focus was put on trades for rental players that best matched the Kraken player’s position, age, and performance.

By the way, a “rental” is a player targeted in a trade whose contract is expiring at the end of the year. Barring a deal that is too good to pass up, we would only expect the Kraken to sell at the deadline if they are out of the playoff picture. If the team does end up selling, the third-year franchise will be looking to harvest draft picks to augment its prospect pipeline and and grab more chips to hopefully find some star power through the draft.

Notes on re-signing players

There are two main pieces to an NHL contract, average annual salary and term. As players move deeper into their careers, teams want shorter terms, whereas players want longer terms, as this could be their last NHL contract. We will compare some contracts that closely match the Kraken UFA’s performances and ages.

Kraken UFA players

The Seattle Kraken have seven players that will be UFA’s at the end of the season. After realizing it would take a really long article to review all seven players, we have decided to split it up into to two parts.

The players (separated by over/under 30 years old) are:

Jordan Eberle (Age 33) – Target: Re-sign for three years at $5 million AAV

Eberle came to the Kraken as the Expansion Draft pick from the New York Islanders. He is a top-six forward that has been on a 20-goal pace 10 out of his 11 seasons. This campaign is the first season he is off the 20-goal pace. He has played in 982 career games and is set to cross the 1000-game mark in mid-March.

As an alternate captain for his entire tenure with the Kraken, Eberle has played on the top line and provided mentorship to budding young star, Matty Beniers. Eberle is second in Kraken franchise history with 47 goals. Among Eberle’s offensive skill set is a wicked backhand and some smooth hands in tight spaces. His current contract comes with a $5.5M cap hit.

Trade return possibilities:

The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):

• Calle Jarnkrok (Age 30) – Seattle General manager Ron Francis was able to get a second-, third-, and seventh-round pick to Calgary in 2022.
• Rickard Rakell (Age 28) – Pittsburgh sent a second-round pick, Zach Aston-Reese, and two AHL players to Anaheim in 2022.
• Gustav Nyquist (Age 33) – Columbus fetched a fifth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023.

In all of the trades above, salary was retained, which the Kraken have the flexibility to do as well. Eberle’s possible trade range could be as low as a fifth-round pick or as high as multiple picks topping out at a second-rounder.

At the time of his trade, Nyquist was injured, but had been scoring at the same clip as Eberle, which does not bode well. Jarnkrok was scoring above his career average at the time of his trade from Seattle to Calgary and returned a bounty of picks. Eberle does have a 16-team no-trade list as part of the modified no-trade clause (M-NTC) in his contract.

The good news is GM Ron Francis swung a solid return in the Jarnkrok deal, so hopefully he can push for a return matching the Boi Boi Calle trade. Expect a deal to include at least a second-round pick plus additional picks or prospects.

What it would take to re-sign Eberle?

David Perron signed a two-year, $9.5M contract as a UFA just after his 33-year-old season. Perron scores just a hair under Eberle, but matches him in leadership, playing time, and power-play experience. Another player contract we could compare to is the Kraken’s own Tomas Tatar, but we will be talking more about him later.

Eberle is on the back nine of his career. If the Kraken want him back, they would likely be targeting a one- or two-year deal, similar to Perron’s, and we would imagine the Eberle camp pushing for a third or fourth year.

The winger is trending on a ~40-point pace, and if that continues, a pay cut could be in his future. On the other hand, if he returns to form and has a stellar second half of the season, a contract in his current range is likely. It should be noted that scoring is down for the Kraken as a whole, so Eberle’s point totals could be a result of a more defensive game plan.

The former first-round pick does bring power-play abilities and leadership to the group. If he re-signs with the Kraken, which he has said publicly he wants to do, we predict a two- or three-year deal in the $4.5-$5.5M range for Eberle to finish his career with the Kraken.

Justin Schultz (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick

Comparable trades (player name, age when traded):

• Ben Chiarot (Age 30) – Florida really wanted Chiarot and paid first- and fourth-round picks, plus an AHL player to Montreal in 2022.
• Mark Giordano (Age 38) – The first ever and only Seattle Kraken captain returned two second-round picks plus a third-round pick to Toronto in 2022. It should be noted Colin Blackwell was included in this deal with the Maple Leafs as well.
• Brett Kulak (Age 28) – Edmonton traded second- and seventh-round picks, plus NHL player William Lagesson to Montreal in 2022.

Schultz is definitely a valuable depth defenseman with offensive prowess that a team making a playoff run will covet. A second-round pick is probably the highest pick the Kraken can get, but an additional lower-round pick (or two) could be thrown in. Targeting a trade like Kulak’s is conceivable. Looking a bit at Giordano’s trade, which is a package deal, could be something Francis would explore as well.

Tomas Tatar (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (Age 38) – Target: Trade for fourth-round pick

The veteran center signed with the Kraken for one year at the league minimum, $775K. Bellemare offers defense, including penalty-killing time, and above 50 percent in the face-off dot. There are only three players in the NHL that are 39 or over, so he is definitely reaching the end of his career, but Bellemare has played effectively this season.

With his current cap hit, we could see extending Bellemare’s deal for one more year. He is currently on injured reserve but is a depth center with NHL playoff experience when healthy.

We found one comparable trade (player name, age when traded):

• Derick Brassard (Age 34) – Edmonton traded a fourth-round pick to Philadelphia in 2022.

A reasonable return could be a third- to fifth-round pick due to Bellemare’s penalty-killing expertise. He is also a possible thrown-in player added to a package deal that could upgrade a trade for the Kraken.

Overall

Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger as long as they have a path to the playoffs. One aspect of trades we did not dig into much is package deals. Francis has experience with this type of trade, bundling Blackwell with Giordano to get an extra second-round pick in the inaugural season.

For any of the Kraken UFA’s, it would be a stretch to get a first-round pick as part of the return, but packaging up two players could be enough to push a first-round pick into the conversation.

A past package deal that is of interest:

• Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac – These New Jersey Devils were traded as a package to the New York Islanders for first-, fourth-round picks, and two AHL prospects in 2021.

Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the team should re-sign or trade its pending UFAs. Part II can be found here.