The Kraken are inching closer to a major inflection point in their season, when their front office will need to decide which players with expiring (or soon to expire) contracts should be kept and which ones should be moved on to new teams. As Seattle has floundered over the past week, we’ve begun thinking again about what the team might do if it has to be a seller at the NHL Trade Deadline, which falls on March 8.
In this two-part series, we’re going to look at all the players on expiring contracts, focusing first on the older ones (over 30 years old) in Part I, then shifting in Part II to those under 30.
For Part I, we think it will be a useful exercise to go through each pending UFA, discuss what he brings to the Kraken, and consider if the team should re-sign the player or look to trade him if in a selling position.
Let us start with a definition for unrestricted free agent (UFA). A UFA is a player who is not under contract and is free to sign a deal with any NHL team. Players are considered UFA’s if they are 27 years of age or older or have played at least seven NHL seasons. UFA’s can only negotiate/re-sign with their current team during the season, but once free agency opens in the summer, they can sign anywhere. Talks with other NHL clubs can start after the NHL Draft on June 29, and players can officially sign with other clubs on July 1.
Possible trade returns
It is hard to get exact value of what a player will return in a trade. There are many factors that play into trades, such as team salary cap situation, player age, player performance, salary retainment, and contract term remaining. For this exercise, trades over the last three years were reviewed, and focus was put on trades for rental players that best matched the Kraken player’s position, age, and performance.
By the way, a “rental” is a player targeted in a trade whose contract is expiring at the end of the year. Barring a deal that is too good to pass up, we would only expect the Kraken to sell at the deadline if they are out of the playoff picture. If the team does end up selling, the third-year franchise will be looking to harvest draft picks to augment its prospect pipeline and and grab more chips to hopefully find some star power through the draft.
Notes on re-signing players
There are two main pieces to an NHL contract, average annual salary and term. As players move deeper into their careers, teams want shorter terms, whereas players want longer terms, as this could be their last NHL contract. We will compare some contracts that closely match the Kraken UFA’s performances and ages.
Kraken UFA players
The Seattle Kraken have seven players that will be UFA’s at the end of the season. After realizing it would take a really long article to review all seven players, we have decided to split it up into to two parts.
The players (separated by over/under 30 years old) are:
Part I – Over 30
- Jordan Eberle (33)
- Justin Schultz (33)
- Tomas Tatar (33)
- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (38)
- Alex Wennberg (29)
- Chris Driedger (29)
- Devin Shore (29)
Jordan Eberle (Age 33) – Target: Re-sign for three years at $5 million AAV
Eberle came to the Kraken as the Expansion Draft pick from the New York Islanders. He is a top-six forward that has been on a 20-goal pace 10 out of his 11 seasons. This campaign is the first season he is off the 20-goal pace. He has played in 982 career games and is set to cross the 1000-game mark in mid-March.
As an alternate captain for his entire tenure with the Kraken, Eberle has played on the top line and provided mentorship to budding young star, Matty Beniers. Eberle is second in Kraken franchise history with 47 goals. Among Eberle’s offensive skill set is a wicked backhand and some smooth hands in tight spaces. His current contract comes with a $5.5M cap hit.
Trade return possibilities:
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
- Calle Jarnkrok (Age 30) – Seattle General manager Ron Francis was able to get a second-, third-, and seventh-round pick to Calgary in 2022.
- Rickard Rakell (Age 28) – Pittsburgh sent a second-round pick, Zach Aston-Reese, and two AHL players to Anaheim in 2022.
- Gustav Nyquist (Age 33) – Columbus fetched a fifth-round pick from Minnesota in 2023.
In all of the trades above, salary was retained, which the Kraken have the flexibility to do as well. Eberle’s possible trade range could be as low as a fifth-round pick or as high as multiple picks topping out at a second-rounder.
At the time of his trade, Nyquist was injured, but had been scoring at the same clip as Eberle, which does not bode well. Jarnkrok was scoring above his career average at the time of his trade from Seattle to Calgary and returned a bounty of picks. Eberle does have a 16-team no-trade list as part of the modified no-trade clause (M-NTC) in his contract.
The good news is GM Ron Francis swung a solid return in the Jarnkrok deal, so hopefully he can push for a return matching the Boi Boi Calle trade. Expect a deal to include at least a second-round pick plus additional picks or prospects.
What it would take to re-sign Eberle?
David Perron signed a two-year, $9.5M contract as a UFA just after his 33-year-old season. Perron scores just a hair under Eberle, but matches him in leadership, playing time, and power-play experience. Another player contract we could compare to is the Kraken’s own Tomas Tatar, but we will be talking more about him later.
Eberle is on the back nine of his career. If the Kraken want him back, they would likely be targeting a one- or two-year deal, similar to Perron’s, and we would imagine the Eberle camp pushing for a third or fourth year.
The winger is trending on a ~40-point pace, and if that continues, a pay cut could be in his future. On the other hand, if he returns to form and has a stellar second half of the season, a contract in his current range is likely. It should be noted that scoring is down for the Kraken as a whole, so Eberle’s point totals could be a result of a more defensive game plan.
The former first-round pick does bring power-play abilities and leadership to the group. If he re-signs with the Kraken, which he has said publicly he wants to do, we predict a two- or three-year deal in the $4.5-$5.5M range for Eberle to finish his career with the Kraken.
Justin Schultz (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick
Schultz joined the Kraken as a free agent, signing a two-year $6M deal with a 10-team M-NTC before the 2022-23 season.
With Ryker Evans knocking on the door, we believe Schultz is the most likely defenseman to not be with the Kraken next year. That takes re-signing him off the table, so we will focus on trade return.
Schultz runs the second power-play unit and has settled into a third defense pairing with his previous Pittsburgh Penguins teammate Brian Dumoulin.
Comparable trades (player name, age when traded):
- Ben Chiarot (Age 30) – Florida really wanted Chiarot and paid first- and fourth-round picks, plus an AHL player to Montreal in 2022.
- Mark Giordano (Age 38) – The first ever and only Seattle Kraken captain returned two second-round picks plus a third-round pick to Toronto in 2022. It should be noted Colin Blackwell was included in this deal with the Maple Leafs as well.
- Brett Kulak (Age 28) – Edmonton traded second- and seventh-round picks, plus NHL player William Lagesson to Montreal in 2022.
Schultz is definitely a valuable depth defenseman with offensive prowess that a team making a playoff run will covet. A second-round pick is probably the highest pick the Kraken can get, but an additional lower-round pick (or two) could be thrown in. Targeting a trade like Kulak’s is conceivable. Looking a bit at Giordano’s trade, which is a package deal, could be something Francis would explore as well.
Tomas Tatar (Age 33) – Target: Trade for second-round pick
Tatar went from making $4.5M last season to signing a team-friendly deal with the Colorado Avalanche, only to get buried on the fourth line and eventually traded to the Kraken for a fifth-round pick.
Now playing on the Kraken’s top line at $1.5M, Tatar has been a steal. The Kraken could look to re-sign Tatar in the $2.5-$3.5M range on a short one-to-two-year contract. The big question is, will Tatar want to stay or go to a team favored to win the Stanley Cup?
Since joining the Kraken, the player affectionately known as “Tuna” has rejuvenated his offense. The comparable trades for Tatar are the same as the trades for Eberle. Tatar has averaged 45-50 points a season over his career and could return almost as much value as Eberle, since he is on a cheaper contract, helpful for teams that are cap constrained. A first-round pick is still out of the question, but a second is definitely feasible.
Being that the Kraken only traded a fifth-round pick to acquire Tatar, trading him could end up being a quick return on investment.
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (Age 38) – Target: Trade for fourth-round pick
The veteran center signed with the Kraken for one year at the league minimum, $775K. Bellemare offers defense, including penalty-killing time, and above 50 percent in the face-off dot. There are only three players in the NHL that are 39 or over, so he is definitely reaching the end of his career, but Bellemare has played effectively this season.
With his current cap hit, we could see extending Bellemare’s deal for one more year. He is currently on injured reserve but is a depth center with NHL playoff experience when healthy.
We found one comparable trade (player name, age when traded):
- Derick Brassard (Age 34) – Edmonton traded a fourth-round pick to Philadelphia in 2022.
A reasonable return could be a third- to fifth-round pick due to Bellemare’s penalty-killing expertise. He is also a possible thrown-in player added to a package deal that could upgrade a trade for the Kraken.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger as long as they have a path to the playoffs. One aspect of trades we did not dig into much is package deals. Francis has experience with this type of trade, bundling Blackwell with Giordano to get an extra second-round pick in the inaugural season.
For any of the Kraken UFA’s, it would be a stretch to get a first-round pick as part of the return, but packaging up two players could be enough to push a first-round pick into the conversation.
A past package deal that is of interest:
- Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac – These New Jersey Devils were traded as a package to the New York Islanders for first-, fourth-round picks, and two AHL prospects in 2021.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the team should re-sign or trade its pending UFAs. Part II can be found here.
There is a ton of right-shot defenceman on the market. I don’t think Seattle is going to fetch a 2nd for Schultz.
Also, might someone want Hayden for the playoff grind. Not much return, but maybe a “throw in” or late pick.
I thought about this too when I read it, but the fact he runs the power play and is an effective puck mover makes me think a second at the deadline is totally realistic, even if there are other options out there. We shall see!
Once again the Kraken are spiraling down, so this might be the signal it is time to make these trades.
Agree that none of them will bring more than a 2R pick, but most of the 7 2R picks in the last two drafts look like the could one day make the roster. Unless this is viewed as a bad draft year, Francis should target those 2R picks for 2024 to build out the base quicker.
I know this is an article about just UFAs, but I think that Francis should consider trading Grubauer and retaining Driedger to open more cap space next year. I know he has a NTC for the rest of the season but I would imagine he wants to play on a playoff team and the Devils are just dying for a decent goalie.
Elliotte Friedman has recently said a few times that Elvis Merzļikins’ contract is going to be “really hard to trade”. He makes half-a-million less AAV on the same three year term, he’s right at league average save percentage on a terrible defensive team rather than almost 20 points below on a very good defensive team. Also, Grubauer’s contract pays him $6.8m next season – all salary, no bonus – so a team trying to reach the cap floor won’t take him either. I can’t imagine the deal that moves Grubauer.
Watched a few Devils highlights recently and do they ever need a goalie. Perhaps Francis agrees to take Vanecek back to somewhat even out the salary for the next two years and to give the Kraken an option if Driedger is not re-signed or gets traded. The Devils get a starting goalie who has looked decent in the playoffs recently and can always buy him out in the final two years if he does not go back to pre-Kraken Grubauer. I think he has a chance of that if he plays for a better offensive team like he did in Colorado and DC.
They have so many studs at F and D, they just need a serviceable G.
With Grubauer’s current performance and salary, we would have to retain 50% of his salary and send picks/prospects with him to get a team to bite. Since the Kraken are still building the pipeline, the picks and prospects are more valuable than the Grubauer’s cap hit is. The german gentleman is a good goalie that just has not worked out yet, but I believe the potential to turn it around is all the upside the Kraken need. The overall cap is going up next year to 87.7M. Keep an eye out for part II and we will discuss Driedger.
I don’t think pointing at one playoff series against his old team is going to paper over the remaining two-an-a-half seasons of performance. Add in the injury history and quite a few goalies likely being available – Allen, Markstrom, Gibson, Fleury, Merzļikins – and I think the Kraken are stuck for one more season. After next year his salary drops which might help move him or a buyout becomes “reasonable”.
While I am thinking about, say Schultz is traded. Obviously, Evans takes that spot but then you have 4 lefties on D. Cale Fleury and Ville Ottavainen are two righties down at CV. Which of those two do you see as the more likely to take the extra spot in the NHL this season and next?
If we are sellers, I am not sure it matters who they bring up as there positives for each one. Fleury has experience with the big club, so would be an easier transition, but Ottavainen is waivers exempt and could gain some valuable experience. Really will come down to if they need them to play or be the healthy scratch. Another option to bring up this year as a stand-in is Connor Carrick, who has over 200 games NHL experience.
As for next season, there is a lot to happen between now and then, so that battle will be decided in training camp as both are still under contract next year. I would give the slightest of edges to Ottavainen due to his size and age, but nothing will be decided until next year.
At the time of the trade, Nyquist was hurt with no guarantee of a return to the lineup. I don’t think that gives any real indication of Eberle’s value in this year’s market
That is a good point, I had forgot about that. He did end up playing in the last few games of the regular season and the playoffs, but that definitely lowered his return. Overall my thought is he will get closer to the other trades with a 2nd round pick bundled with something else. I updated the wording to indicated Nyquist was injured. Thanks Tony!!
I’m feeling that regardless of our chances of making the playoffs we should be sellers. I don’t really believe any of our UFAs aside from Ebs can’t be filled from within without much downside. I haven’t been happy with the constant signing of aging vets, I feel we haven’t really left enough doors open for our prospects. If a player fits into a three year plan then sure keep him and resign otherwise we should be moving along.
Yep, focusing on building for the future is not a bad thing. While I don’t believe the Kraken are cup favorites, they might be a playoff team. Seattle has a unique roster construction, when healthy, that allows us to roll 4 lines. This causes trouble for other teams and anything can happen once you are in the playoffs. This roster construction will eventually move to a more top heavy lineup as the years progress.
The Kraken front office is also aware they need to put butts in seats and grow the fan base.
With $1.7m in deadline cap space…
How about Justin Schultz and a 1st (protected) to Calgary for Chris Tanev… provided he signs an extension?
The idea of the Tanev brothers playing together would be nice, but Chris Tanev is the elder sibling at 34. I would rather keep our first round pick.
Blaiz Grubic “With Grubauer’s current performance and salary, we would have to retain 50% of his salary and send picks/prospects with him to get a team to bite.”
You are assuming he is an offload, like a Jack Campbell would be. I don’t see it like that at all, he is just a player was for whatever reason has been mismatched to the Kraken. What was his SV% pre-Kraken, something north of .910 as I recall. While some salary retention, certainly much less than 50%, may be needed, I don’t see that you have to add a sweetener at all. The other team is getting a starting goalie, something in short supply. So retain up to 25% and take another goalie back, like the Devils trade I proposed. Retaining $1.5 m of AAV and taking Vanecek plus one cheap player if they wanted to include one about equals out the money for two years and they come out ahead on the talent.
If he is fit for the NHL to play for the Kraken, there is no reason he is not fit for a trade. If he is not fit for the NHL, there is always the Firebirds. If he is that bad, he should be in the AHL, like Campbell.
“Many of our experts thought Grubauer was the product of an Avs team that had the puck a lot last season and now will be exposed after getting a big payday with Seattle”.
That’s from an Athletic panel of more than three dozen experts – NHL general managers, head coaches, goalie coaches, goalie gurus and former goalies… and that’s after just being a Vezina finalists! One former goalie said, “Overrated, plain and simple”.
I don’t think Grubauer is considered a former “top tier” goalie or that this is thought of as a Seattle thing by anyone. Not only has he continued to underperform this season, but Joey’s numbers are only making it worse.
Next season they go with Grubauer as the No.2 and then there will be more options.
I don’t believe we can save more than 1.2 million by sending him to the AHL. We would still be on the hook for the remaining 4.7 of his cap hit. It would make much more sense to trade with a 50% salary retention if there is another team willing. I’m not sure there is at least this year, yes NJ needs a goalie but would you not pick markstrom in a heartbeat over gru?
You are correct, that I am looking at Grubauer as an offload, but don’t let that trick you, I am pro Grubauer and want him to succeed with the Kraken. You have a positive outlook on his trade value and that is awesome. I hope you are correct.
Grubauer is back… let’s hope he doesn’t play until after the All-Star break.
With Grubi-Stein night tomorrow, I am thinking he gets the start. The next 3 of 4 games are on the easier side.
Ugh…
Although… tomorrow is also a “must win” game. Cannot afford to lose to a Bedardless Blackhawks.
I would lobby that all 4 of the upcoming games are must win. Joey needs to start against the Blues, but the other 3 games, 1 or 2 can go to Gru. Stein night makes the most sense. If he does well, possibly the Sharks, but with the all-star break after I would be ok with Joey Daccord starting 3 of 4.
I think you’re right. He’s gonna have to play at some point. Better Chicago rather than St Louis. After the Sillinger hit, that CBJ game really matters. And as much as “Stein-Night” is a must win, we don’t want to go into the break dropping one to the worst team in the league… the Sharks.
I’m hoping for – and disgusted by the thought of – him being motivated by what’s happened since D10.
You beat me to hitting the reply button :), but we are on the same page.
With $1.7m in deadline cap space…
How about Justin Schultz and a 1st (protected) to Calgary for Chris Tanev… provided he signs an extension?
5 years ago yes but Tanev is too old to help us for very long, I’d much rather have the picks and evans in the lineup
“I think 16 teams in the last four years in the conference finals, 14 of them had two or more top 10 picks in the lineup. I think Tampa had six when they won Cups back to back so those guys are important to building a franchise.”
This quote from Ron Francis ahead of the season one trade deadline has always stuck with me. Once you get out of the top 10, I feel like most teams – but not all – tend to overvalue their round one picks. The last two teams to win back to back Cups had prolonged success but haven’t picked in the first round very often. I don’t think Seattle is good enough to start trading firsts for “pieces”, but I also think we’re too good to land any more top ten picks. For the record, Larsson, Beniers, and Wright are all top four picks… and the Kraken’s only top ten drafted players.
Djdw00, did you forget that Grubauer is back? 😂
Not that that wasn’t serious… but on a more serious note, yes I think you are spot on. I can certainly understand the kraken desire to win early to develop a fan base but I’d be happy with more of a focus on internal player development and be building to make the playoffs and make some noise in the playoffs in 5 years from the start of the franchise. We’re two years away at this point and I don’t think we are going to be as good then as we could have been if we went in more of a “rebuild” from the start. We didn’t get the draw the knights did it’s a different story for us. There are a lot players we’ve picked up that I’ve never understood the real benefit to be honest. Three on this lineup stand out and that’s not including Gru.
Ship Eberle half retained for a 2024 second. Send that and the Kraken 2024 second to Buffalo for Jordan Greenway. He’s a 6’6″, defensively responsible winger who plays both sides. He’s 26. has no trade protection, and is signed through next season for $3m.