This is Part II of What the Kraken can do with their pending unrestricted free agents. Part I can be found here. In Part I, we reviewed the Seattle’s pending UFA’s that are over 30 years old and outlined what can be done with each of the four players. For Part II, we will shift our focus to the trio of UFA’s under 30 years old.
Kraken UFA players
For review, these are the seven pending UFA’s in question, split by over/under 30 years of age.
- Jordan Eberle (33)
- Justin Schultz (33)
- Tomas Tatar (33)
- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (38)
Part II – Under 30
- Alex Wennberg (29)
- Chris Driedger (29)
- Devin Shore (29)
Alex Wennberg (Age 29) – Target: re-sign for four years at $4.5 million AAV
Alex Wennberg was signed to a three-year, $13.5M deal as a free agent in the days following the Expansion Draft. Wennberg is one of the more divisive players on the Kraken, as fans either love what he brings to the team or desperately want him to shoot more.
Let’s start this with a little quiz, but don’t worry; it will be easy. (Hint: The answer to every question is “Alex Wennberg.”)
Wennberg Quiz
- Who leads the Kraken for most game-winning goals in franchise history? Wennberg, tied with Eberle at eight game-winning goals.
- Iron-man Adam Larsson has played every Kraken game, but who is next in games played? Wennberg. 208 games and counting.
- What Kraken forward has the most blocked shots in franchise history? Wennberg. 156. The next closest forward is Brandon Tanev at 121.
- What forward has averaged the most ice time per game over the first three seasons? Wennberg. 18:23 average time-on-ice per game. He also averages the highest power-play-plus-penalty-kill time of any forward on the team with a 3:50 (PP: 2:06, PK 1:44) average per game.
- Most face-offs taken? Wennberg. He has led in the number of face-offs taken overall in every Kraken season.
- Who leads the Kraken in percentage of high-danger shots at 15.38 percent? Wennberg.
- What player leads the team in takeaways minus giveaways? Wennberg. He leads the team in both takeaways at 158 and takeaways minus giveaways at 88. “Best friend of the pod,” Alison Lukan, wrote a great article on this topic last year.
How did you do on the quiz? If you got less than seven out of seven, feel free to try again. Remember the answer is “Wennberg.”
The Swedish center is trusted in all situations on the ice, consistently rolled out on the PP and PK, and is defensively sound. To address the amount of shots Wennberg takes, this is nothing new to his playing style, but the key to focus on is that he opts to pass rather than take low-percentage shots. But he takes high-percentage shots as they are available. Here is a heatmap of Wennberg’s shot attempts this season, as found on Moneypuck.com.
Trade return possibilities:
The following three trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
- Andrew Copp (Age 27) – The New York Rangers sent first-, second-, and fifth-round picks plus an AHL prospect to Winnipeg in 2022.
- Lars Eller (Age 32) – Colorado traded a second-round pick to Washington in 2023.
- Eric Staal (Age 36) – Buffalo fetched third- and fifth-round picks from Montreal in 2021.
At 29, Wennberg should fall somewhere between the Eller and Copp trades, if Seattle decides to move him. A first-round return might be asking a bit much, but a second-rounder and an additional pick is more practical.
Shane Wright is developing in the AHL and will look to make the Kraken next year. This does create a log jam in the center position if Wennberg stays, but having too many centers is a good thing, and the Kraken have options with the current rostered players that can play both wing and center. We would rather see Wright make the team first and eventually ease him into a top-six center role. Keeping Wennberg around gives them the ability to do that.
Wennberg, a former first-round pick, has a 10-team modified no-trade clause (M-NTC).
What it would take to re-sign Wennberg?
Three comparable contracts were used (player name, contract terms, age when signed):
- Vincent Trocheck (seven year at $5.625M AAV, signing age 29) – First-line center averaging over 21 minutes per game. This physical forward also plays in all situations and averages 50-60 points a season. It helps that Artemi Panarin plays on his wing.
- Phillip Danault (six years at $5.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Shutdown center that has a scoring touch, tallying over 50 points in each of the past two seasons.
- Alexander Kerfoot (two years at $3.5M AAV, signing age 28) – Since joining Arizona, Kerfoot has played both PP and PK minutes. He has a career average of ~40 points a season.
Wennberg is currently at $4.5M AAV, so he falls in the middle of these contracts, and that is about right. Both Trocheck and Danault were able to sign longer-term deals due to their skill sets. The defensive-minded Wennberg is in the same camp and will be looking for the longest term possible (four-plus years).
We think the Seattle Kraken will look to capitalize on his early 30’s and try for another three-year deal. We see the AAV landing in the $4-$5.5M range with a three-to-five-year term.
Chris Driedger (Age 29) – Target: Let walk
The goaltender was the Kraken’s Expansion Draft pick from the Florida Panthers after he compiled 21 wins and a .930 save percentage over two years. Unfortunately, the Canadian netminder has not panned out in Seattle, posting an .899 save percentage in the inaugural season before getting injured in the IIHF World Championship in 2022. Since that time, Driedger has only played two NHL games and spent the rest of his time in the AHL.
The WHL product cleared waivers after this season’s training camp, as other NHL teams did not want any part of his $3.5M cap hit.
With Philipp Grubauer being activated off injured reserve Tuesday, Driedger was re-assigned to the Coachella Valley Firebirds. A trade still could happen, but there are currently teams in need of goaltending, and a deal has yet to be done. This indicates his cap hit and small sample size, since returning from injury, are issues. The Kraken will most likely keep Driedger as an insurance plan in the AHL, in case there is a future goalie injury. We foresee Seattle letting Driedger and his 10-team M-NTC walk at the end of the season.
Devin Shore (Age 29) – Target: Trade for a fifth-round pick
The veteran of over 400 games is the perfect depth insurance policy. He can play center or wing and jump up and down the lineup as needed. Having this flexibility is something that NHL clubs in the playoffs value. Shore is on a two-way contract, meaning he is paid $250K in the AHL and the league-minimum $775K when with the Kraken.
The following two trades were used for comparison (player name, age when traded):
- Curtis Lazar (27) – New Jersey sent a fourth-round pick to Vancouver in 2023.
- Ryan Carpenter (31) – Calgary traded a fifth-round pick to Chicago in 2022.
In return for Shore, a fourth- or fifth-round pick could be expected.
Overall
Trades are hard to predict, and we don’t see the Kraken pulling the trigger to sell, as long as they have a path to the playoffs. Another aspect that was not covered is the NHL salary cap is expected to go up to $87.7M next year, so every team is going to have some extra flexibility.
Please comment on what trades you feel are possible and if the Kraken should re-sign or trade their existing UFA’s. If you missed part I, you can find it here. 
Next project is to review the Kraken’s restricted free agents (RFA), so look for that in the coming weeks.
Extend Wennys at almost all costs. He’s in his prime. He’s steady, reliable, professional. He can mentor Wright as he has Matty. This should be a priority. The guy is a stud!!
When this entire roster is healthy it’s pretty solid top to bottom and can make some noise in the playoffs. But we’ve seen lately what it looks like with a few key players out and it’s pretty clear that we should be selling. Even if we were fully healthy we should be selling because we should be thinking long term. Winning the Cup is the goal and not just getting into the playoffs. Yes there are exceptions that have made it far but those teams are exactly that. Exceptions. I like what Tatar brings and if we can keep him at a reasonable price then we should. I’m also a Wenny fan and would love to keep him as I don’t see Wright being ready to fill his shoes. If Wenny does go then we need to get someone via trade of FA to help boost the offense around Wright to help balance out the loss of Wenny’s various skills. Trade Shultz and call up Evans. Trade Shore. Keep Bellemare as insurance.
Not to jump ahead, but I don’t think I’m dropping a spoiler when I say they are absolutely bringing Tolvanen back. I agree they should also bring back Wennberg, but I think he’s gonna be on the upper end of the estimate. After Lindholm, the UFA center market is pretty thin. Add in Eberle and once they also pay Beniers they should still have something around $6m to sign a seventh defenseman and a thirteenth and fourteenth forward – assuming Wright makes the team.
That’s about $3.5 to spare.
So if they don’t resign one of Eberle or Wennberg is there an $8.5m replacement available? Or if they don’t resign either, how should they spend $13m+ on two forwards?
Re-signing Tolvanen is definitely a spoiler. 🙂 I am on the fence with Lindholm. With the Cap going up I think he is going to get overpaid (term and amount) and I would rather not commit a big portion of the cap, when Beniers and Wright are the future. I have not done an in depth look at the available UFAs, but I would gravitate more towards a winger. Sam Reinhart or Jake Guentzel are names that come to mind, but both play will some elite players, so I always want to knock them down a peg.
I’m ambivalent about Wennberg. I understand both what his fans like but also the lack of actual production. Thus article sounds like the only critique of Wennberg is an oafish “SHOOT!”, and the stats say he’s great. But it’s not that simple. The comprehensive stats from the analytics geeks are more bearish. The Athletic stats model has him as one of the worst-value players on the team.
Let’s summarize: re-sign Eberle and Wennberg for about the same money, trade Tatar, Schultz, Bellamare, and Shore, and let Driedger walk. You have gained 2 2R, 1 4R, and 1 5R picks and freed up around $5m in cap space, all of which I assume will go to Tolvanen and Beniers.
Are you thinking Driedger has no trade value to any team going into the playoffs?
How ready do you think Wright is for the NHL now?
Do you have any other of the Kraken prospects making the 2024-25 roster besides Wright and Evans?
Re: Driedger. It’s not that he has no value, but he has a pretty big cap hit for a backup and too small a body of work to justify it.
Re: Wright. John Barr and Curtis Isacke talked about this on the podcast and I agree with them that the next time he is called up it is probably for good. My thoughts are he gets more playing time in the AHL, so let him continue to develop there. If the Kraken dropped out of the playoff picture, we could see him come up, but his entry level contract will slide a year if he plays less than 10 games in the NHL. For that reason, unless we have to bring him up, I think next year is the better option.
Re: prospects. There are players that will push for it, but it will come down to training camp. I don’t get to watch much AHL, but Lind, Ottavainen and Winterton can make some noise in training camp.
If I follow, you are saying that if theses 4 trades you have outlined happen, you think that the Kraken will bring up vets to finish out the season, like Hayden and Carrick, instead of giving the prospects some no-stress time in the NHL to get themselves ready for next year?
Re Driedger, the other thing they could do, if they do not retain 50% and trade him for a pick, is to re-sign him at a lower AAV for a season or two and see if he can win the backup spot next year. Grubauer moves to a modified 10-team NTC from July, so he becomes a trade candidate and it would be good to have an NHL experienced goalie around, just in case.
The targets are what I feel is the trade return value. While I do enjoy being right, these are hard to predict and the likelihood all four are traded is small. If all four get traded, that does create a hole and I think you will see a mix of AHL vets and prospects They will probably rotate through a few of them to get to the end of the year.
Re Goalies: First, I am pro Grubauer, I want to see him succeed with the Kraken. With Both Grubauer and Driegder, I do not think the Kraken will be able to trade for anything positive at this time. It is possible Driedger re-signs with the Kraken, but if he is going for a lower AAV, he will go somewhere he has a clearer path back to the NHL. If Grubauer starts being the goaltender we all want him to be, then do the Kraken really want to trade him and if he doesn’t, he will be an expensive backup next year. Since on goalies, Daccord has been great for the last 6 weeks, but it still has only been 6 weeks.
Blaiz Grubic. “Re Goalies: First, I am pro Grubauer, I want to see him succeed with the Kraken… If Grubauer starts being the goaltender we all want him to be, then do the Kraken really want to trade him and if he doesn’t, he will be an expensive backup next year. Since on goalies, Daccord has been great for the last 6 weeks, but it still has only been 6 weeks.”
Six excellent weeks from from Daccord or three lousy seasons from Grubauer, and you favor Grubauer? He has had enough time to prove his value, let alone live up to his AAV and has repeatedly failed to do so. The Kraken should move on, the only question is how and when. A trade, buy-out, or waivers? That extra cap space would be helpful in obtaining the offensive talent they need to take the next step. If they do not make a move and walk back essentially the same lineup next season, less a few UFAs, do you really expect any change in their place in the standings? They’ll be stuck again in the mushy middle, with an aging roster.
@blaiz nice pair of articles! One point of corrcetion I don’t think Wright’s ELC is slide eligible. I believe the slide occurs if the player stays in Juniors and doesn’t play Pro, it doesn’t matter whether it’s NHL or AHL – commonly they can’t play AHL if slide eligible – Wright’s an anomaly exception remember!
The more I look at the roster outlook the more I think Wennberg should be retained. Basically in 3 years’ time you can have 2 of Gourde/Wennberg/Wright playing C behind Beniers.
I think Gourde’s game will drop quite suddenly given the energy and abrasiveness he plays with.
By contrast Wennberg is almost 3 whole years younger, plays a less attritional style and fulfills many of the same defensive responsibilities.
Much as I hate to say it, I think Gourde is the one we don’t renew. Wennberg has the better outlook down the line. And if we’re out of the picture next year at TDL then Gourde will attract a better price than Wennberg would this year.
You ease Wright in next year whilst trying to play 4 balanced lines still, then he can step up as Gourde departs.
I wouldn’t keep Ebs unless he comes with a discount. Despite them both playing well together I think we keep one of Ebs/Tatar, offering $3M x 3 max. I don’t see Ebs staying for that, Tuna might. Then I’d take the savings to the open market for a younger option. Personally tracking Teravainen. Fits the team mould; 2-way winger who can contribute, and can play PK and PP. If we’re throwing out a $5M+ contract for multiple years I’d rather have him at 4 years younger, than Ebs.
According to the Puckpedia slide tracker – Wright’s contract would slide if he doesn’t get into 10 NHL games this season.