We have officially reached the All-Star break/bye week.The Seattle Kraken are sitting fifth in the Pacific Division and two points behind the St. Louis Blues for the last playoff spot. We figured now would be a fine time for a good, old fashioned Sound Of Hockey Kraken Roundtable to take a pulse check on how we’re feeling about the season so far and what to expect the rest of the way.
Sound Of Hockey contributors Blaiz Grubic, Cameron Riggers, Curtis Isacke, John Barr, and Darren Brown all got together to answer some (not so) burning questions.
Enjoy!
Who is your outstanding performer of the season so far?
Blaiz: Joey Daccord. First, I was excited to see him even make the Kraken as the back-up this year. As he has taken over the starting job, I have enjoyed watching his style, especially how he plays the puck. This is something that makes me nervous in most goalies, but Daccord does it so well. I am in awe watching it.
Cameron: I think Vince Dunn. I love the consistency that he plays with, adding value to all facets of the game and playing with poise while not being afraid to lay a body out or get in someone else’s grill. I feel like I never notice him because he’s so seamless in his defensive style of play, and when I do notice him, it’s usually because he’s contributing offensively. He’s been underrated by many national circles for some time, and I think he’s really turned himself into a solid No. 1 defenseman.
John: As Blaiz mentioned, I think it has to be Joey Daccord. The budding star netminder has two shutouts and a .917 save percentage, and I don’t know where this team would be in the standings without him. It is great to see him get regular reps in the NHL, where we’re finding out what he’s capable of doing.
Honorable mention to Tomas Tatar. The Kraken traded for him for virtually nothing, and he has impressed me since he got here. He has been making his linemates better ever since his first day with the club.
Curtis: I agree that Daccord is probably the performer who stands apart from the pack. Advanced metrics rank his performance preventing shots from becoming goals somewhere between above average and elite. And, as I investigated (Part I, Part II), he may be having an even more significant impact on the game beyond that.
But since Daccord has received significant shine already, I need to call out Seattle’s one consistent goal scorer: Jared McCann. Coming off a 40-goal season, he has 20 goals so far this year, which is a 33-goal pace and represents 14.4 percent of the team total.
Pair this with solid defense and the ability to provide value on all special teams units, and I shudder to think where Seattle would be without McCann. Before the season, I was guarded in my expectations for the Kraken because I didn’t see the goal scoring beyond McCann. At least he has held up his end of the bargain.
Darren: Joey! Joey! Joey!
What is the biggest disappointment of the season so far?
Cameron: I’m hesitant to say the younger players, but their production hasn’t met my expectations coming into the season. Seattle has only gotten 19 points from Matty Beniers, 15 from Tye Kartye, and four from Ryker Evans, though his playing time has been limited. I know it’s difficult to expect the world from those players, given that they’re all still so young, but from the expectations they created for themselves last year (especially Beniers and Kartye), I was hopeful for a bit more.
John: I love love love Andre Burakovsky, but he has been a big disappointment this year. ‘Burky’ has one of the best shots on the team but only has one goal over the 19 games he has played. I know he has missed a lot of hockey over the last year due to injury, so I think it is just a matter of time before he returns to form.
Darren: I’m with you, John. I keep waiting for Burakovsky to Burrrrreak out (get it?), but it just hasn’t happened. The real disappointment with him, though, is just how much time he’s had to miss again this season. After rehabbing from a serious groin injury all offseason, he returned for a few games, got hurt again, played two periods, and got hurt a third time. That’s a tough, tough go for that guy.
He’s been a streaky scorer historically, so maybe after this break he can catch fire.
Curtis: You’re all right, those are disappointments. Given that Beniers is still working through clear development challenges, I’ll focus on Burakovsky.
Even when he’s been out there, he hasn’t been a factor. And there are only so many times you can rationalize his lack of production by telling yourself, “To be fair, he has only played x games in the last two months.”
I don’t think he’s found a comfortable fit in Seattle’s north-south, forechecking style. He is more inclined to slow the game, possess the puck as a playmaker, and send passes east-west. Stylistically, it just hasn’t clicked yet. He hasn’t been “bad,” but he should be one of the team’s higher-end play drivers, and that simply hasn’t happened. The skills are there, but he rarely looks in sync with his teammates. With three years left on his deal after this one, Burakovsky and the coaching staff need to find a solution.
Blaiz: The slow start to the season was a bummer for me. After the high of the playoffs last year, it was just a letdown to start the year with four straight losses. After that, it was even more disappointing to see the team just treading water for a bit before a swift kick to a body part resulting in a medium-body injury when the Kraken lost eight straight.
Are you buying, selling, or holding at the deadline? (If you are holding explain when you will decide… i.e., After the first road trip.)
John: I don’t know if you can consider this selling, but I would always be listening. I don’t think any of the players are untouchable, which means it just comes down to price. Even if the Kraken are in the playoff picture, I think they can move a pending free agent or two for the right price.
The biggest need for the Kraken right now is high-end talent, and the only real way to get that talent is through the draft. Any draft pick the Kraken get in a trade is likely a mid-to-late second-round draft pick. Second-round picks can turn into good players, but they rarely turn into elite-tier NHL performers.
Blaiz: I think it depends on if the Kraken have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. I am holding until that is not an option. The Kraken have a tough February schedule, so in the later part of the month, we should have a clearer picture.
I typically plan for the best, meaning they will make the playoffs. Assuming that happens, I am still holding; I am not ready to mortgage the future yet. That said, I do believe every player has a price so if something comes up that can make the team better, the Kraken should jump on it.
Darren: Blaiz and I are in the same camp here. While my heart would LOVE to see Seattle make a splash and go for it, my brain knows that’s not how Ron Francis operates, nor should he at this moment in time. I would expect either A.) what the team did in the inaugural season—selling all expiring contracts for draft picks—if Seattle is out of the playoffs at the deadline, or B.) standing pat, like the team did last season and doing what they can with that group.
Cameron: I really think that this next road trip to some of the Eastern Conference’s top teams will have a real say in where this club will go. I don’t think it’s in the position to be in either full-on buying or selling mode. Frankly, the Kraken exist in that awkward middle ground between competitive and not, but if they go something like 0-3-1 after the break, and the teams around them stay consistent, then they will be almost forced to shop their expiring UFA’s around.
A decision needs to be made soon, though. I personally think selling is the best thing for the future of this team, but what the Kraken do depends on where this next road trip takes them.
Curtis: Barring something truly unforeseen, Seattle shouldn’t be a “buyer” at the deadline. I don’t think that makes sense given where the team is in the arc of its roster and player development pipeline.
The team has a number of expiring contracts for players in their early-to-mid 30’s who would be risky to re-sign, given their ages. This makes me strongly inclined to listen to offers. That said, I agree that the team should hold its water as long as possible. The trade deadline is March 8, so make a tentative decision about whether to move forward with selling after the Feb. 22 home game against Vancouver.
Give us a reason to be optimistic or pessimistic about the last 32 games
John: I am generally an optimistic person, but I wake up aware of the challenges of the day. Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs. That means 66 percent do not make it. That said, I do believe this team will continue to make a run at one of the wild card spots. Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, and Burakovsky have not been sharp since coming back from their respective injuries, and I think it is just a matter of time before they get going again.
Cameron: I’ll give a reason for optimism and one for pessimism.
Optimistic – After their road trip, the Kraken will play 15 of their next 19 games at home, practically spending their entire end of February and all of March in Seattle. They won’t really leave the Pacific time zone either, aside from a few central time one-offs. This streaky team can really play into becoming a more consistent club over the next two months by the favorable schedule, which will allow them to settle into a routine.
Pessimistic – The schedule lightens up for the teams around the Kraken in the standings as well, with Nashville, St. Louis, and Minnesota all set to enjoy easier strengths of schedule. Seattle still has to play Boston twice and Winnipeg three times, so there are some tough matchups ahead.
Blaiz: I’m optimistic. Since Daccord has taken the reins, the Kraken have a .659 points percentage in 22 games. If they can maintain that pace, they would capture 42 points, putting them at 94 on the season. That is definitely in the conversation for making the playoffs. Adding to what John researched, of the 33 percent of teams that made the playoffs after racking up 52 points in 50 games, 55 percent of those teams got into the playoffs with 93 or fewer points. This shows that 94 points would put the Kraken in a decent position to sneak in.
Curtis: Looking at the team’s on-ice play, I’m optimistic. Seattle’s roster is almost entirely healthy now, and the last three games against St. Louis, Columbus, and San Jose were actually three of the team’s strongest in terms of controlling overall shot quality (yes, I know they went 1-1-1 in those games and faced two bad opponents). Add to that strong play in goal, and there is reason to be confident this team will perform well down the stretch.
I must admit to some nagging pessimism, though. As has been discussed, the numbers indicate it is still an uphill climb to make the playoffs. But, more than that, I worry the team will get trapped in an “in between” position where it isn’t a true playoff threat but doesn’t sell either and misses a chance to acquire additional assets for the future. It’s an uncomfortable way to watch these games.
Darren: I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the team’s health, Curtis. I’m sometimes too optimistic for my own good, but Seattle can win in a lot of different ways when healthy. Dave Hakstol has only had the luxury of rolling four lines for a handful of games this season, and coming out of the break, the team should be as healthy as it has been since Opening Night (and deeper than they were on Opening Night, since Tatar wasn’t here yet).
If they can stay relatively healthy down the stretch, I think the Kraken have a strong chance at the playoffs.
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Now it is your turn. What would be your responses to these questions? Leave your thoughts in the comment section.
Not ready yet for the playoffs. They seem shot averse and just aren’t scoring enough consistently.
Now that Lindholm and Monahan are off the market and both brought back a 1R pick, Alex Wennberg has to be considered among the top UFA centers left. If he could generate a 1R pick, wouldn’t you do it? Or a 2R and a prospect or 2 2R picks?
The Kraken need to be selling, Schultz, Bellemare, and Wennberg. Eberle, maybe, if he comes back at a lower AAV, he might be good to keep around for two years but 50-50 on that. Tatar the same. If Driedger is gone next season, why not sell him now at 50% retained for a pick.
Perhaps it is time to embrace youth next season and play Wright, Morrison, Winterton, Evans, and Ottavainen in the NHL. CV will have the whole second draft class to take their places.
After listening to the pod earlier today, I’ve switched from a “sell now” to a “hold… for now”.
Following the loss to the Sharks, I was thinking this season would be like last season coming out of the break and have been expecting the guys would get smoked. After Darren broke out the difference between going into the break this season versus last… I’m a hold… that may change after the east coast road trip, but I’m now willing to wait and see.
While it may look in the standings like six teams are scrapping for two wild card spots in the West… it’s really only two teams – Seattle and St. Louis – fighting for one spot.
Los Angeles is gonna turn it around and lock up a spot with the “new coach bump”… so they’re in. The math doesn’t look good at all for Arizona and Calgary… so they’re out. And Nashville… they were not in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving… so they’re out also. On Thanksgiving St. Louis and Seattle were holding down the two wild card spot. With the emergence of Edmonton, one of those teams is not getting in, but the “analytics” say it’s impossible for both teams to miss… and that makes that collapse against the Blues that much worse… but at least were 50-50 to still make the playoffs.
Go Kraken!!!
Glad to see you come to the hold for now side. I would not be upset if the Kings did not get a new coach bump either, they can continue to fall, so there are two wildcard spots to fight for.
I’d actually like to see the Kings make the playoffs… and then get bounced in the first round by the Oilers… again.
I feel like the road trip that’s coming up next will be the tell tale. Then again, it’s never that black & white. My fear is they won’t be focused and ready come Feb 10.
Sell. That Sharks game was an embarrassment.
Not overreacting to a single game but that puts a bow on where I think this team’s ceiling is. You shouldn’t hold onto players when the best case scenario is clawing into the last wild card spot.
I was also disappointed with the SJS game. Deeply. But I don’t understand the sell thing. If we get rid of the decent players we have today, even for 2-7 round draft picks (which is what we would get), who are we watching for the next few seasons while we wait for prospects to get going? John Hayden? Kole Lind? Great guys, I’m sure, but I’m not sure worth $6K per year for my season tickets. Also, it feels like we have some great prospects already in the system. A couple of scoring leaders in the CHL…scoring leader at 19 or something in the Finn league…#2 and #4 draft picks…a D-man really getting going with Portland after transferring out of college hockey, a very exciting D-man playing for The Battalion. The whole concept of selling the current team under the current circumstances is confusing to me, and I’ve been playing and watching hockey for 50 years.
The players they’re talking about trading are not signed next season. If they want to return here, they can resign in Seattle July 1st. If they do not, the Kraken have almost $27m in cap space next season.
You have Ryker Evans to replace Schultz so they only need a 7th defenseman at most on the blueline. Wright is likely to step in as a bottom six center. Paying Beniers and Tolvanen will take a chunk, but that will still leave something between $12m – $15m to sign a bottom line and replace Eberle. This season, the fourth line came in under $4m. I think to answer the question “who are we watching for the next few seasons” you have to ask whose available?
I think John made the point in the roundtable that the team needs elite talent in the system and really the only way to get it is thru the top half of the 1st round. I think you gotta listen on everyone and if they don’t get 80% of the points in the first 5-6 games you gotta look to sell your UFA’s (at a minimum).
We cannot keep rolling out teams whose upside potential is just competing for a playoff spot… the team and org need to be structured to win a cup not just hanging around in the middle and its actions need to be towards expediting that goal.
Having players from the top half of the 1st round doesn’t seem to make a team that much more competitive to win Cups than the others. If you want examples, just look at Oilers and Leafs. Kraken’s current team actually doesn’t look much different from Cup winning teams. In fact, we have plenty of players who have won Cups. Chasing top 16 picks makes you…Arizona. I’m glad we aren’t Arizona.
Having a team that consistently makes the playoffs is a legit step toward a Cup any way you dice it. It also just makes the team more relevant and entertaining. It’s very hard to win The Cup.
“I think 16 teams in the last four years in the conference finals, 14 of them had two or more top 10 picks in the lineup. I think Tampa had six when they won Cups back to back so those guys are important to building a franchise.”
Ron Francis, March 1, 2022
Seattle currently has 10 first round draftees on the roster. Vegas currently has 6. Eichel and Pietrangelo are the only two in the top 10. Eichel acquired via trade and Peitrangelo signed as a UFA. Honorable mentions…Marchessault was undrafted. Stone in the 6th round (#178). Karlsson in the 2nd round (#53). Vegas is considered a Cup contender again this year.
If you happen to land some great top 10 draft picks that pan out, obviously it doesn’t hurt you. But chasing top 10 draft picks thinking it makes you “built better” to win Cups is just not a good strategy. You’re betting on 18 and 19 year olds who haven’t even played in the league yet. There are so many other factors that go into winning The Cup.
…and the year before Colorado had eight players taken in the top ten. I think Vegas is an excellent example of the “exception that proves the rule”. I don’t think emulating what Vegas has done is a better approach for most teams, certainly not for Seattle and where they’re at.
I don’t think they should “tear it down” to get top picks, but as I mentioned on John’s Monday Musings comments, right now the Kraken are sandwiched between a top ten pick and a playoff spot. If they “stay the course”, right now the odds say they’ll get neither. That is certainly not the way to build a contender.
It seems like you are saying we will be forever in this rut of mediocrity if we keep the course. I disagree, the reason is we aren’t getting a significant amount of cheap players from previous drafts to fill out the roster YET. That pipeline should start flowing soon which will really help construct a better team able to splurge on a few higher end players.
I wouldn’t say almost getting to the Western Conference Final in our 2nd season is a “rut of mediocrity”. When was the last time Buffalo went to the playoffs? 14 years ago and counting? Don’t put too much stock in the draft. It’s just ONE way to get players. Again, if you focus on it too heavily, you look like Arizona, who obviously thinks the team who can accumulate the most high level picks wins. They aren’t winning. Having a lot of high draft picks is actually an indicator of a team that is chronically losing.
I’m not saying we have a perfect team. We probably have an average D (Dunn was drafted 56th, by the way…but has a Cup), we have one good goalie (possibly REALLY good) and a coaching staff that likes to tinker with lines a little too much (I really liked the Schwartz-Wennberg-Burky line…not sure why they would break that up). BUT…whenever you see a Kraken player in an interview, they obviously don’t think they are out of the playoffs. You can just tell they by their demeanor they feel very much in the hunt. That’s the sign of a confident and experienced team, and there’s no stats for that. This next stretch of games after the break is going to be very telling.
I agree regarding the pipeline, though it’s probably 3-5 years before they really start making an impact (when they are at least 24, which is still pretty young if you are talking contender level players). Very excited about Rehkopf, Wright, Sale, Firkus, Nyman and Nelson, not to mention Evans who could be our best D-man even on today’s roster. Then you already have Matty and Tye who are off to the races.
Top Performer: Daccord. Though also really happy with Dunn too.
Disappointment: Beniers, though I get it, it’s still hard to take.
Buy/Sell/Hold: I’m open to exercising a bit of patience and holding until the Wild game on 23rd Feb.
In the comments on Playoff Chances back on Jan 6th (https://soundofhockey.com/2024/01/06/kraken-in-the-playoffs/) I mentioned that if the target is 93 Points, that’s 11 more Wins than Losses come season’s end. We’ve had 11 games since then and have not moved the needle at all, we’re still just +2 Wins. So in 32 games we need to win 9 more than we lose. To do that we have to come out the next 7 games with a winning record, 4-2-1 has to be the minimum, and even then we’d still need to go 16-9 or better in the final 25 games which is a tall order. If we don’t come out of the Wild with more than 9 points over the 7 games I think we call it. We can’t afford to let guys walk for nothing if playoffs are not a realistic possibility. Personally I’d like to see us re-sign Wennberg. But we ought to cash in on Ebs, Schultz & Tatar whilst we can. Unfortunately I don’t think we’ll get any takers for Bellemare or Dreidger. If we do sell then I think a pair of 2nds and a 3rd would be a decent haul across the assets we have to offer.
Optimism: The break is significant, we can come back fresh, healthy and motivated. Rolling 4 deep lines will help and could cause Beniers, Burky and Schwartz to all find a rich vein to add to those performing of late, that propels us forward to the playoffs.
Pessimism: Each blown lead, OT loss and close result is going to weigh ever heavier from here. Momentum is a real thing and the situation could spiral quickly should we get on the wrong side of it. But for December we’ve not looked like a team with positive mojo all year. It’s possible we don’t see it again this season.
I agree, the Kraken will have to do better to make to the +11 wins and the playoffs. A positive that they have going for them, is none of the teams competing for the west wild card spots are pulling away. With the way the LA Kings are playing, both wildcard spots are up for grabs.
I’m not convinced by Curtis’s suggestion that Burakovsky does not fit into the Kraken’s forechecking system. Everyone seems to forget — Burakovsky was healthy and awesome during that first half-season on the team. He was leading the team in points at the time of his injury. He was certainly fitting in then. I can’t decide whether this means we should be optimistic or pessimistic — either optimistic, because he just needs to get healthier and then we know what he can do; or pessimistic, because it means injuries have worn him down such that he’s not the same player anymore, even when on the ice.
As for the bigger debate about whether the Kraken should sell or chase that last playoff spot — I am on the fence there, as well. My heart tells me, just go for it, playoff races are fun, playoff games are fun, especially when you get to go in person (as a STH) — and hey, you never know. I am not one of those people who believes that anything short of winning the cup is a total failure in equal measure. I certainly won’t be sad if they go for it.
On the other hand, the goal should still be building a real contender with star players. And if you want to build a contender, you can’t keep trotting out playoff bubble teams because the stupid league rules then prevent you from ever drafting elite players, except if you get extremely lucky on a later pick. So my brain tells me the smart thing is to sell, even if they still have a 30-50 percent chance at the last wild card spot.
I tried to challenge the SOH guys to take a stand on this in the last mailbag, and they responded that maybe the Kraken already have potential stars in Beniers, Wright and Rehkopf. I like those players, I am reasonably excited for their futures, but they are highly unlikely to turn into another Matthews, McKinnon, Eichel or Kucherov. Ask any expert, and those Kraken players all have ceilings as solid middle-six forwards on a contending team.
I agree with this particularly the last 3 paragraphs. I’d love to see more playoff hockey in person, but trying to get high end talent (particularly scoring talent) drafting from the middle is a really hard needle to thread in a cap constrained league.
As you said the ceiling of the young players at the top of our org is probably middle 6 forwards on a contender which is still a pretty good future as a solid NHL contributor who maybe pops as an all star a few times over their career.
If you look at the top 100 skaters by points in the league right now 51% were drafted in the top 16, 13% in the second half of the first round, 11% in the second round, 9% in the third, 10% fourth-seventh rounds total, and 6% undrafted.
I’d love for the Kraken to hit on a few of their picks to be that elite scorer/star but acknowledge the odds of that happening without more high draft picks is significantly worse. Hopefully the Kraken analytics and development teams prove those odds wrong.
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