At the beginning of January, we reviewed the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken and set expectations for how they would need to perform for the rest of the season to make the postseason. Now that January is done, and whilst we are waiting for the Kraken to return from their bye week and All-Star break, we can give an update on where the team stands.
Per the January forecast, the boys from “The Deep” needed to get two points against playoff-bound teams between Jan. 6 and Jan. 31 and got zero. They lost to the New York Rangers on Jan. 16 and to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 21. The Kraken were forecasted at four points against bubble teams and fell just short with three points, earning a win against the Washington Capitals and an overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues, but losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers.
With the sting of the loss to the lowly San Jose Sharks still fresh in our minds, it would be easy to label losses to bad teams as the reason the Kraken have fallen off the pace. However, if you recall, we sorted the teams into three categories, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker teams with forecasted win percentages assigned to each group.
The Sharks are firmly in the Tankers category, and the Kraken had five games against Tanker teams. The NHL is the best league in the world, though, and any team can win on any given night. The Seattle Kraken put in a solid effort for 40 minutes with nothing to show for it and eventually lost to San Jose, but they still took eight out of a possible 10 points against the Tankers class. So, we can’t pin Seattle’s struggles in the standings on that one loss.
So where did they lose momentum? Three games:
1/16 vs. New York Rangers – Playoff-bound team
Chris Driedger started his second NHL game of the season on the tail end of back-to-back games. Injuries and illnesses caused Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky, and Matty Beniers to miss the game. The rookie, Ryker Evans, led all skaters with over 25 minutes of ice time. He played on the first pairing with Adam Larsson, which was a great opportunity for him, but was more indicative that the Kraken were playing with guys at less than 100 percent health. Everything was stacked against the Kraken in this one.
1/21 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Playoff-bound team
Fresh from his stint in the AHL, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, stood tall and made a couple of spectacular saves to keep his team firmly in the lead. Even with Burakovsky back from injury, the Kraken only generated a paltry 17 shots on net.
1/26 vs. St. Louis Blues – Bubble team
The Kraken held the most dangerous lead in hockey late in the second period, a 3-1 advantage, before a tripping penalty by Will Borgen. This woke up the St. Louis Blues, who scored three straight to come back and beat the Kraken in overtime. One point was still earned, and that is important.
The loss against St. Louis was a double-edged sword, as the Kraken are in direct competition with the Blues for a wild card spot. Games versus Western Conference bubble teams are very important; earning two points is key, but almost as important is preventing the opponent from getting points. From this one loss, the Kraken allowed the Blues to sneak into the last wild card spot just before the All-Star break.
Updating the forecast:
From the Sound Of Hockey’s Kraken Roundtable, John Barr researched the following: “Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs.” Digging into this further, five of the nine teams that made it into the playoffs did so with 93 points or less.
Keeping the target of 93 points for the Kraken is still a realistic goal that could get them into the playoffs, but we do have to account for the three points missed in January. There has also been some movement between the team categories.
Changes are highlighted in bold:
Team Categories:
Playoff-bound teams:
Eastern Conference – Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes ↑
Bubble teams:
Eastern Conference – Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs ↓, New York Islanders ↓
Tanker teams (no change):
Eastern Conference – Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference – Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers ↑
Western Conference – Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings ↓
Western Conference – Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks
Factoring in the changes to the team categories and the three additional points needed, we have updated the forecast to the following:
Focus on February:
The Kraken have a pivotal month ahead as they march toward the trade deadline (March 8). With no games against Tanker teams, three versus Playoff-Bound teams, and six against Bubble teams, the Kraken will have to come back from the break firing on all cylinders.
Per the forecast, individual losses are not devastating, but the playoff-hopeful Kraken need to capture 11 of 18 possible points in the month, good for a .611 points percentage. Since goaltender Joey Daccord stepped into the starting role, the Kraken own a .659 points percentage over 22 games. With 32 games remaining, the Kraken need to maintain at least .640 point percentage the rest of the season or roughly four points every three games.
With the break allowing the team to recover from injuries and illnesses, hopefully coach Dave Hakstol will have his full lineup at his disposal. As of the All-Star break, moneypuck.com has the Kraken with the best odds to make the final wild card spot in the Western Conference at 42.3 percent. February will be a fun ride for Seattle as the Kraken push for a playoff position.
Please comment below with your thoughts on the Seattle Kraken’s playoff chances.