At the beginning of January, we reviewed the playoff chances for the Seattle Kraken and set expectations for how they would need to perform for the rest of the season to make the postseason. Now that January is done, and whilst we are waiting for the Kraken to return from their bye week and All-Star break, we can give an update on where the team stands.
Per the January forecast, the boys from “The Deep” needed to get two points against playoff-bound teams between Jan. 6 and Jan. 31 and got zero. They lost to the New York Rangers on Jan. 16 and to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 21. The Kraken were forecasted at four points against bubble teams and fell just short with three points, earning a win against the Washington Capitals and an overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues, but losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers.
With the sting of the loss to the lowly San Jose Sharks still fresh in our minds, it would be easy to label losses to bad teams as the reason the Kraken have fallen off the pace. However, if you recall, we sorted the teams into three categories, Playoff-Bound, Bubble, and Tanker teams with forecasted win percentages assigned to each group.
The Sharks are firmly in the Tankers category, and the Kraken had five games against Tanker teams. The NHL is the best league in the world, though, and any team can win on any given night. The Seattle Kraken put in a solid effort for 40 minutes with nothing to show for it and eventually lost to San Jose, but they still took eight out of a possible 10 points against the Tankers class. So, we can’t pin Seattle’s struggles in the standings on that one loss.
So where did they lose momentum? Three games:
1/16 vs. New York Rangers – Playoff-bound team
Chris Driedger started his second NHL game of the season on the tail end of back-to-back games. Injuries and illnesses caused Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky, and Matty Beniers to miss the game. The rookie, Ryker Evans, led all skaters with over 25 minutes of ice time. He played on the first pairing with Adam Larsson, which was a great opportunity for him, but was more indicative that the Kraken were playing with guys at less than 100 percent health. Everything was stacked against the Kraken in this one.
1/21 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Playoff-bound team
Fresh from his stint in the AHL, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, stood tall and made a couple of spectacular saves to keep his team firmly in the lead. Even with Burakovsky back from injury, the Kraken only generated a paltry 17 shots on net.
1/26 vs. St. Louis Blues – Bubble team
The Kraken held the most dangerous lead in hockey late in the second period, a 3-1 advantage, before a tripping penalty by Will Borgen. This woke up the St. Louis Blues, who scored three straight to come back and beat the Kraken in overtime. One point was still earned, and that is important.
The loss against St. Louis was a double-edged sword, as the Kraken are in direct competition with the Blues for a wild card spot. Games versus Western Conference bubble teams are very important; earning two points is key, but almost as important is preventing the opponent from getting points. From this one loss, the Kraken allowed the Blues to sneak into the last wild card spot just before the All-Star break.
Updating the forecast:
From the Sound Of Hockey’s Kraken Roundtable, John Barr researched the following: “Looking at historical data, 33 percent of teams with 52 points in 50 games make the playoffs.” Digging into this further, five of the nine teams that made it into the playoffs did so with 93 points or less.
Keeping the target of 93 points for the Kraken is still a realistic goal that could get them into the playoffs, but we do have to account for the three points missed in January. There has also been some movement between the team categories.
Changes are highlighted in bold:
Team Categories:
Playoff-bound teams:
Eastern Conference – Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes ↑
Bubble teams:
Eastern Conference – Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs ↓, New York Islanders ↓
Tanker teams (no change):
Eastern Conference – Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens
Western Conference – Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers ↑
Western Conference – Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings ↓
Western Conference – Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks
Factoring in the changes to the team categories and the three additional points needed, we have updated the forecast to the following:
Focus on February:
The Kraken have a pivotal month ahead as they march toward the trade deadline (March 8). With no games against Tanker teams, three versus Playoff-Bound teams, and six against Bubble teams, the Kraken will have to come back from the break firing on all cylinders.
Per the forecast, individual losses are not devastating, but the playoff-hopeful Kraken need to capture 11 of 18 possible points in the month, good for a .611 points percentage. Since goaltender Joey Daccord stepped into the starting role, the Kraken own a .659 points percentage over 22 games. With 32 games remaining, the Kraken need to maintain at least .640 point percentage the rest of the season or roughly four points every three games.
With the break allowing the team to recover from injuries and illnesses, hopefully coach Dave Hakstol will have his full lineup at his disposal. As of the All-Star break, moneypuck.com has the Kraken with the best odds to make the final wild card spot in the Western Conference at 42.3 percent. February will be a fun ride for Seattle as the Kraken push for a playoff position.
Please comment below with your thoughts on the Seattle Kraken’s playoff chances.
Moneypuck loves the Kraken for some reason. Last season they had Seattle as the favorite to win the Cup a couple weeks ahead of the All-Star break. I know their model relies on recency more than some, so there is probably still a bump from the win and points streaks. Moneypuck is more bullish on the Kraken than most right now.
Speaking of models… I think the way John targeted the playoff break point makes perfect sense, and in a typical season I’d say 93 would seem about right. This season seems a little “atypical” though with seven teams in the West “on the bubble”. I don’t how he gets to the number, but Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at the Athletic currently has the number at 89 points to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.
I think Calgary is already selling and won’t be making a push for a playoff spot, but most of the other teams… it’s hard to say what they’ll do. That includes Seattle.
Go Kraken!!!
I agree, I think 93 points has a greater than 50% chance to make the playoffs than it has historically shown. I don’t have a easy ways to show this with data, but loosely the the teams in the wildcard spot at the All star break were at 54 and 56 points which is on the lower point total that typical. Then you have 7 teams in bubble, this lends me to thinks a lower total than 93 will get you in the playoffs.
I will have to take a look at Dom’s model. Thanks djdw00.
Dom’s model also has the Kraken at only 22% to make the playoffs. It’s crazy how consistently extreme the difference has been between the Athletic’s model and the Moneypuck model on the Kraken’s playoff odds. The Moneypuck number is often double the Athletic number. Frankly, the Athletic number seems more realistic…
I looked at the Athletic rankings and if you just look at the western conference teams, Seattle is the 9th team. They also have Calgary in the 8th spot, which is questionable with Lindholm off to Vancouver. The percentages listed for the seventh, eighth and ninth teams are 32%, 26%, 22%. The other take-away in this model is 90 points would get the top wildcard spot. To me this just solidifies the Kraken have work today but they have a very realistic chance to make the playoffs.
You must be miscounting. The Kraken are the 10th team. The top 7 teams (VAN, WPG, DAL, COL, EDM, VGK, and LAK) are basically locked in (with only LAK having a slight 12% of missing) with 5 other bubble teams having double-digit shots (between 32 and 10 percent) at the last 8th spot. The Kraken are 3rd among those bubble teams at 22%. So yes, a “realistic” shot, but the problem is, 4 other teams also have a realistic shot at that 1 remaining spot, which makes the Kraken specifically a bad bet against the field.
And sure, Calgary traded away Lindholm, but they got a good shooter back in Kuzmenko and are still not a bad team at all. Some would argue better than the Kraken. At the very least, it’s close. Now if they trade Tanev and/or Hanifin, forget it.
Yep you are correct. My eyes skipped Winnipeg when looking at the list. oops.
Agreed on Calgary.
I am not ready to call LA a lock. I need to see a big turn around and have marked them a bubble team for now.
It’s between Seattle and St. Louis for one wild card spot… there’s no getting around it.
You simply cannot dismiss the Thanksgiving effect. Edmonton was outside, they’re now solidly in. That means one team – and only one – that was in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving is getting bounced out. It’s between the Kraken and the Blues… sorry everyone else. I suppose you could drag the Kings into it, but I really think the Thanksgiving effect is on their side here as well, ensuring them at least one of the wild card spots.
And don’t give me any hooey about points percentage. In a playoff spot is by POINTS… period.
Go Kraken!!!
I think people have a couple of different measurements for ‘how many points are needed to make the playoffs’. There is the straightforward, “How many points did the WC2 team have that year?” But really, how many you actually need is one more (or zero with tiebreakers) than the first bubble team, so potentially quite a bit less than what the team did earn. Also potentially not though, especially if by giving up those points you gave them to a competitor they would overtake you. But anyway.
Hockeyviz’ forecast puts all of Sea Stl Nsh and Cgy in the 22-27% range, with Seattle second of those four. I guess it doesn’t take into account the selling Calgary has done. Personally it feels like pretty even odds for the three teams there.
I also have to remind myself that though the games now feel more impactful, october and november games count for just as many points and we started off so slowly, it’s painful.
More impactful games sound exciting and fun to watch to me.
Both wildcard spots are up for grabs, so just being the 2nd place bubble team will get you in the playoffs.
One fortunate aspect of playing no “Tanker” teams in February is that we’ll be gaining better insight into how our team stacks up against playoff-caliber competition, and we’ll be more well informed on if we should position ourselves as buyers or sellers at the deadline. With so many bubble teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them gets caught buying after beating mostly “Tankers” in February and then misses the playoffs entirely!
Thanks for another great article Blaiz, keep ’em coming.