When we first published our original article on the playoff chances of the Seattle Kraken back in January, we planned to provide updates monthly. But as the playoff picture is becoming clearer, we will update weekly going forward. We will review how the team did the previous week and look ahead to what they need to do in the upcoming week.
Unfortunately for Kraken fans, Seattle had a miserable week and lost in painful 5-4 overtime fashion to the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday, then 2-1 in regulation to the Washington Capitals in an uninspiring performance on Thursday.
Can the Kraken still make the playoffs?
Believe it or not, there is still reason for optimism that the Seattle Kraken can sneak into the playoffs.
- According to tankathon.com, the Seattle Kraken have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NHL.
- The Kraken have generally performed well against playoff-bound teams.
- There are still three playoff spots within striking distance, both wild card spots and the third spot in the Pacific Division.
- The Kraken have one or two games in hand on the teams ahead of them.
The Seattle Kraken do have a nearly impossible uphill climb to make the playoffs at this point. They are nine points behind both Vegas and Los Angeles and will need one of Vegas, Nashville, or Los Angeles to start losing. Vegas is 3-6-1 in their last 10 and is the most likely candidate. I am also not sold that Nashville is as good as its current win streak implies.
With the Golden Knights losing to Calgary on Thursday, it’s easy to imagine how different Seattle’s situation would be if the team could have figured out ways to win both Tuesday and Thursday in regulation. Blowing a two-goal lead and giving Vegas two points, then coming up empty against Washington was a five-point swing in the wrong direction for the Kraken, who would be just four measly points from a wild card spot on Friday if they had gotten those victories.
Review of team categorization and win percentage targets
As you might remember from the original article, we’ve broken the NHL teams down into three categories: Playoff Bound, Bubble, and Tankers.
- Playoff Bound – Teams that should make the playoffs, those near the top of the standings. The Kraken’s target was 45 percent of points against these teams.
- Bubble – Teams fighting to make the playoffs, most likely as wild cards. The Kraken’s target was to get 65 percent of these points.
- Tankers – Teams most likely to miss the playoffs, should be Seattle’s easiest opponents. The Kraken needed 90 percent of these points.
The team categorizations have had some changes since January. The only change this week is Vegas has moved down to a Bubble team. The teams that are bolded are teams against which the Kraken have a remaining game.
Point percentages
We set point percentage targets for each team categorization back in January. Here is how the Seattle Kraken have been doing against each group, since Jan. 1.
- Playoff – 5-3-1 – .611 point percentage
- Bubble – 4-6-3 – .423 point percentage
- Tankers – 5-1-0 – .833 point percentage
- Overall – 14-10-3 – .574 point percentage
The Kraken are doing really well against Playoff and Tanker teams, but struggling against the Bubble teams. This has to end now if they want to have any hope to even apply pressure to the teams in wild card spots. Even though the Kraken have struggled against the Bubble teams, they have almost followed the pace of 93 points, and using the target percentages, the Kraken are currently on pace for 92 points.
93 points
Before the start of the season, our own John Barr wrote, “When looking over the last 11 seasons, excluding the 2019-20 season that had a unique play-in format, the average minimum point total of the bottom playoff team was 92.4 points on the season.”
Using this average, 93 points has been what Sound Of Hockey established as the target. Will 93 points be enough to get into the playoffs this year? It is starting to look like the 2023-24 season will require more than the average. Let’s look at where Vegas, Nashville, and Los Angeles are trending for their final season point total:
- Vegas Golden Knights – 88-97 points (16 games remaining)
- Nashville Predators – 96-98 points (15 games remaining)
- Los Angeles Kings – 96-97 points (17 games remaining)
The season point total projection ranges are calculated taking the point percentage for the season and for the last 10 games to give a range. For the Nashville Predators, who are on an 11-game unbeaten streak, the point percentage before the streak started was used for the low total.
If these teams continue on their season points percentage pathways, the line would become 97 points to grab a wild card spot. With tie-breakers, 98 points would pretty much guarantee the Kraken a spot, but that is definitely a tall order. The Kraken would need to get 30 out of 36 remaining possible points, and that is unlikely.
Despite their comeback win over Seattle on Tuesday, the Golden Knights have been slumping as of late, going 3-6-1 in their last 10 games for a .350 point percentage. Vegas needs to turn its play around quickly, as the low end of its point projection (88 points) is within striking distance for multiple teams, including the Kraken.
For this week, we will leave the target at 93 points, but based on how Vegas does over the next week, we might increase the target.
What has happened this month
Overall, the Kraken have done ok, going 2-3-1 against some stiff competition. The losses did sting with a shutout loss to the Jets, a heart-breaking overtime loss to the Golden Knights, and one-goal losses to the Capitals and Oilers.
- Mar. 2 – Loss 2-1 against the Edmonton Oilers
- Mar. 4 – Win 4-2 against the Calgary Flames
- Mar. 5 – Win 4-3 against the Winnipeg Jets
- Mar. 8 – Loss 3-0 against the Winnipeg Jets
- Mar. 12 – Overtime Loss 5-4 against the Vegas Golden Knights
- Mar. 14 – Loss 2-1 against the Washington Capitals
The Kraken also lost two players to injury this month. Vince Dunn is out with an upper-body injury, though he could return soon, and Jaden Schwartz has an undisclosed injury and has not been seen skating.
The Kraken also traded center Alex Wennberg to the New York Rangers on March 6. Jared McCann has stepped into the second-line center role and has exceeded expectations, but still, losing Wennberg did make the team significantly thinner. Playing in five games as a pivot, McCann has six points, including two short-handed goals.
Upcoming week (March 15-21)
The good news is the Kraken have the easiest schedule in the league, meaning we should hopefully start seeing some wins pile up. Here is a look at the games coming up this week:
- March 16 – Nashville Predators (Bubble… but on a tear)
- March 18 – Buffalo Sabres (Tanker)
- March 21 – Vegas Golden Knights (Bubble)
The Kraken pretty much have to go 3-0-0 this week, but the target win percentages are based on the rest of the season, so there can be some losses before the end of the campaign. The games against Nashville and Vegas are especially important, though, as not only are the two points crucial for the Kraken, but not giving either of those teams points is equally important. If the Kraken are able to run the table this week, they would be back on pace for 94 points. Then next week (Mar. 22-28), the Kraken play four tanker teams, which could still (even after all the misery this past week) set them up for a last-gasp playoff push.
Overall
With the Kraken having a much easier schedule these next couple weeks, I definitely have some optimism (maybe too much) on what they can accomplish. But the players have to want it, and they have to come out every night treating every game as a playoff game. They said the right things earlier this week, but their effort on Thursday against Washington did not scream desperation.
With 17 games remaining and nine of them against Tanker teams, the Kraken have an opportunity for some wins. They have been getting solid goaltending out of both Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord since the new year.
If the Kraken can piece together some offense and string a few victories, they can put pressure on those wild card teams ahead of them.
The odds sites that play out the season a million times, factoring in quality of opponents and everything else you mention, have the Kraken missing the playoffs 95 to 96 percent of the time. That is statistical certainty. They are cooked. On the bright side, their chances of landing Celebrini are all the way up to 1.4%! Ah the mushy middle.
Yep, it is definitely a long shot at this point, but with such a soft schedule coming up I am holding on to that 4-5%. Vegas is not doing themselves any favors, so if they keep sliding, that door is going to slowly open.
Yup. As fans, what choice do we have but for to root for that 4-5%, right? Hopefully Dunn comes back Saturday. He is the most important player on this team. His absence alone turns them from a decent team to a mediocre-to-bad team.
“You’re telling me there’s chance”.
– Lloyd Christmas
Of the past 15 No.1 overall picks… only MacKinnon has won a Stanley Cup. I’m not saying I don’t want to pick No.1 overall, I’m just saying it doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Getting into the top ten would be a “win” this year.
Warning: I’m still livid from being at the game last night, so this post is even grumpier than usual.
What an awful, terrible, no good game. The article preceding this one is about how they haven’t given up — uhhhh, it sure seemed like it after the first 8 or so minutes of the game. The second period was one of the most boring, lifeless periods I’ve seen all year. After a pretty impressive game against Vegas, the offense looked completely impotent without Dunn and Schwartz. Daccord finally got his comeuppance for aggressive puck handling, plus he looked pretty flat footed on the Connor Not-McDavid goal. Evans has been looking good, but looked 1000% like a rookie in this game. Tanev continues to be extremely overrated and my least favorite player on the team — he is a constant turnover machine in both zones, but he somehow looks good doing it so fans like him. Beniers fell down after a soft breeze blew in from the stands. Burakovsky shows flashes of elite skill, but intermittently makes egregiously boneheaded plays.
The bigger issue I have is: is there reason for optimism for next season? Seems like we’re destined for the mushy middle again. The goaltending will probably be a little worse, the shooting% will probably be a little better, and it’ll cancel out. Unless Wright comes up and contributes, Beniers puts on 20 lbs of muscle and shoots 16% again, Schwartz/Burakovsky stay healthy, Daccord continues being a .920 goalie, and Evans becomes Dunn 2.0, I just don’t see it. I have very little faith in Francis being able to actually improve this roster enough from the outside for it to matter. We might have to wait until the prospects come up and contribute, which is never a given. Ugh!
Also, I know it was a Thursday night against a mediocre Eastern Conference team, but there were a TON of empty seats at CPA. The problem with waiting for prospects to contribute in 3 years is that there will probably be an NBA team by then, and Kraken fans will be tired of paying hundreds of $$ to watch a bad-mediocre, boring team. The playoffs last year was nice, but well more than half of the teams that are actually trying to win make the playoffs every season, so it’s really not all that impressive. Missing the playoffs should be considered a failure top to bottom, and they should do what they can to improve, instead of sticking with the status quo and hoping it works out.
You did say, “finally”… that’s not a one play take. To paraphrase… “He finally got what he deserved”.
I know you’re pissed and you’re ranting… but you should just leave Joey out of it.
Ah. I said finally more as a way of saying it was going to happen eventually given how aggressive he is, not that I wanted it to happen or want him to ever stop being aggressive. It was worded so negatively because I was ranting, and it was just another thing on the list of crappy things in that game. I love Joey, and I hope he never changes.
“Daccord finally got his comeuppance…”
How about Daccord gets some run support! A .926 over his last two starts and only two goals against in each… and the Kraken score one measly goal for him in almost 120 minutes!
He’s out there trying to make that play for a team that needs all the help it can get creating offense.
I want to apologize in advance for sounding mean, but this sort of take about the best player on the team is just lazy.
After a slow start, he’s now No.5 in the league on SV% for the season and No.1 at .929 since he took over for Grubauer – yes, better than Hellebuyck.
Comeuppance??? Please!
Even with that miscue, Joey had nothing to do with them losing that game, and the worst thing the Kraken could do would be to try and “fix” the “best” goalie in the league.
If you read these comments frequently, you should know I am a HUGE Daccord fan, and not once did I indicate he needs to be “fixed”. That being said, it was a big mistake that he made because he plays the puck. There can be a negative aspect to him being an aggressive puck handler, and that’s all I meant by “comeuppance”.
Their impotent offense is certainly mostly to blame for the loss, but to say he had “nothing” to do with them losing is factually incorrect. It’s not very often you can point to a goal and put 100% of the blame on the goalie — sometimes it’s defensive coverage, screens, whatever. That goal was 100% on him. He knew it too, as he prostrated on the ground with his face in his glove. I believe the opposite of what you think I’m saying — I hope that he doesn’t get discouraged by this and continues to handle the puck, because it’s clearly an asset that this offensively-challenged team needs for D –> O transition.
Definitions from Oxford Languages ·
come·up·pance
NOUN – INFORMAL
– a punishment or fate that someone deserves.
“he got his comeuppance”
Maybe you should choose your words more carefully.
Well, he did deserve it by handling the puck aggressively in that situation. How is that the wrong word?
I understand the frustration and the Vegas loss and the Caps loss stung. One point you made about Tanev, had me raise my eyebrow though. Tanev is only credited with 11 giveaways on the season. There are 8 forwards that have more giveaways than Tanev. Turbo is one of the best in this department on the team.
Optimism for next season? You do have to look far to see the Vancouver Canucks are a team that could have asked the same question last season. They finished with 83 points, out of the playoffs. On offense, they brought in only 3 people, none of which have more than 26 points and largely their top 3 forward lines remain the same. They did upgrade their defense adding Ian Cole and Carson Soucy. They are now first place in the West.
Can the Kraken replicate this, probable not all the way to first, but I do expect the Kraken to be better next year. There is no reason that Beniers, Daccord, Kartye, Wright, Evans and Tolvanen can not continue to develop. These are young players and will continue to grow. We also have Burakovsky underperforming, if he can get back on track and the Kraken do a bit better in the injury department, the Kraken will be better. Beyond that you have Firkus, Rehkopf, Goyette and Nyman all having fantastic seasons in juniors and abroad. Most likely none of them make the lineup next year, but the future does look bright for Kraken.
Thanks for the comments Boist!!!!
One thing that I will say for Ron Francis (apart from his having been a legendary player of course) is that the man can draft. Rehkopf, Firkus, Goyette, and Nyman look like they are about to be excellent Firebirds next season. I just hope that Firkus has a growth spurt, because full-grown men will knock him all over the ice. I am feeling good about Wright, Winterton, and Evans as well. This work late in the season has been good for Evans, and I wish that Francis had called up Wright to take over the fourth line. I suspect that it would have been good for him to get a proper taste of the big league, but I understand not wanting to burn a year on his ELC. Besides, he looks like he was good enough to play in the big league this year. Maybe they could have used him. It worked out well for Coachella Valley, though.
Thanks for the discussion!
I’m not a huge fan of the “giveaway” stat, it’s too imprecise. I’d re-watch the game and give several examples of what I’m talking about re:Tanev, but I’m afraid I might get too angry and throw my phone across the room. I’ll try to keep a tally next game. It’s not always a frank giveaway — sometimes it’s just a blind board pass to the other team in the O zone, or a failed clear in the D Zone. Fact is, he is last on the team in individual forward 5v5 xG% (44.59%), and the next worse is Kartye at 46.5%, which isn’t particularly close. That matches my eye test, at least.
As for the Canucks, if only we can find out what they sacrificed to the PDO gods! They are the Kraken from last year in shooting% leading the league by a mile, but they’re also getting this year’s Kraken goaltending. If only such a thing were reliably replicable!
And yes, I suppose I discounted our younger players improving. The only people on your list who I think can meaningfully improve are Beniers, Wright, and Evans, and they NEED these players to step up, especially the forwards. If this who Beniers is, or even if he’s just somewhere in between last year’s and this year’s version (40 pt/year player with +defense), that would be a major disappointment for a 2nd overall pick and a huge blow to the club. That’s like having another Alex Wennberg, who is useful, but not nearly good enough to build a team around.
The miss play by Daccord was 100% his fault and yes he knew it. He is a fantastic puck handler but he’s a rookie, don’t expect every play he makes to be fantastic. He will learn from his mistakes and continue to improve his puck handling if he’s allowed too, I worry with H in charge… he definitely was not responsible for the loss last night and was one of the better kraken players no denying that.
As far as our young players they will develop don’t expect Gretzky in year 2/3 Or in fact ever but we have some good young players to build around.
I seriously can’t believe your criticism of Taniv!!! If everyone on the team worked as hard as he does we’d probably beunbeaten. Yes he has a skill set ceiling but he’s a roll player and a fantastic one at that. If you want to talk giveaways take a look at Burakovsky….
Headline from a Buffalo news site yesterday:
“Sabres win 3rd in a row, 3 points out of playoff position”
So not sure why you think they are tanking…but of course I am an eternally hopeful Buffalo sports fan 🙂
I would trade the Kraken prospect pool for that of the Sabres in an instant. What is it, 5 first round draft picks just waiting to break onto the roster (Savoie, Ostlund, Kulich, Johnson, Rosen)? The future looks very bright in Buffalo. I would not be surprised if they made the playoffs this year, if they beat the Wings tonight.
This season is over, let it go. All the focus should be on next season. This makes it so hard to understand why Francis did not trade Schultz for something.
In the balance of the season, I would like to see Wright, Winterton, and Ottavainen get 5 game looks in the NHL. The Firebirds have likely won their division and will get a first round bye. Lind and Fleury also deserve an NHL look.
For the Firebirds playoffs, depending on how their junior seasons finish, it would be good to see Firkus, Goyette, Nelson, and Jugnauth get some real game action. Also, there is no reason Sale, Rehkopf, and Dragicevic should not be on the roster, if not getting a game or two of action.