Welcome to Prospect Week at Sound Of Hockey. All week we’ll bring you content about the players that will be the future of the Seattle Kraken and other teams around the NHL. Today, I’ll kick things off with a “data-only” ranking of Seattle’s skater prospects.

This “data-only” ranking is built on Thibaud Chatel’s NHL equivalency research and uses only quantifiable measures: prospect points per game and strength of the player’s current league, with adjustments made by me for prospect age and positional value. 

This approach is similar to what we did in making a data-based ranking of 2023 NHL Draft and 2024 NHL Draft prospects. If you want the full gory details on method, check out this post describing the process from earlier this offseason. 

But, more to the point, here we’re updating our work from last offseason when we ranked every NHL-affiliated skater prospect (both drafted and signed players) that met two criteria: (1) younger than 25 years old, and (2) fewer than 50 NHL games played, based on their 2022-23 data.

Now that the final buzzer has sounded on the 2023-24 regular season in every professional, developmental, and amateur hockey league around the world where NHL prospects play, we can re-run the analysis using data from this season.

In this post, we’ll focus on the Seattle-specific results. Tomorrow we’ll have a follow-up post that ranks all 946 NHL-affiliated prospects meeting our criteria and compares Seattle’s prospect pool to those of the 31 other NHL teams. How do Seattle’s prospects measure up overall? Check in again tomorrow to find out.

No eyeball test here

Before getting to the results, I should reiterate that this rank order does not contain any adjustments for subjective preference or the “eye test.” That will come later this week when we’ll publish our first Sound Of Hockey consensus prospect ranking. 

Today’s “data-only” exercise is meant to complement those more traditional assessments. Are there players that the scouting lists have overlooked? If so, we can try to figure out if the player is under-appreciated. Or, conversely, we can dig into whether there is a flaw in the player’s game that could hold the player back from translating his current production to the NHL level. The data is helpful in honing in on these outlier cases that may be worthy of a second look (for good or bad).

Data-only prospect ranking

Without further ado, you can find the full ranking, with more data on each prospect HERE.

Important note on using the data-only ranking: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 2, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.

Let’s dig into the Top 10, as well as a few of the more interesting lower-ranked skaters.

1. Jani Nyman

6’3” | RW | Multiple teams | Liiga/AHL | 2022 round 2 pick 

28 goals | 17 assists | 53 games played | 0.85 PPG

If it surprises you to see Jani Nyman at No. 1 over Shane Wright, don’t worry, you’re not alone. I was surprised too. Both are 2022 draft picks, and Wright not only reached the more advanced developmental league, but he performed well. And when Wright played with the Kraken in April, he looked like he belonged. By many accounts, Nyman isn’t quite as close to NHL-ready. So, what gives?

While it flew a bit under the radar, Jani Nyman had a historic scoring season in Finland’s top professional league, Liiga. He scored 26 goals, which is the fourth-most ever in Liiga by an under-20 player and most since Mikko Mäkelä in 1984-85. Overall, he was second in the league in goals. The next youngest player in the top five in goal scoring was 25 years old.

According to Thibaud Chatel’s win shares metric, which is based on goals, assists, and plus-minus, adjusted for playing time, position, team, and league context, Nyman was the second-best player in Liiga.

All of that said, my adjusted NHLe numbers for Nyman and Wright were extremely close. But for the fact that Nyman is about six months younger than Wright, Wright would have come out slightly ahead. Without spoiling too much of tomorrow’s post, here is a chart that shows the Kraken’s top 10 prospects against their overall league rank. You’ll see Nyman and Wright are neck and neck.

Nyman’s adjusted NHLe rank would have made him the top prospect in 20 of 31 other systems.

2. Shane Wright

6’0” | C | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2022 round 1 pick

22 goals | 25 assists | 59 games played | 0.8 PPG

Though Jani Nyman edged Shane Wright out for first place in this data-only ranking, Wright had a very productive AHL season that would have made him the top “data-only” prospect in most (19 of 31) systems. Among all AHL skaters who played at least one game under age 20 during the 2023-24 AHL season, Wright had the most points (47), second-most goals (22), and third-best on-ice plus-minus (+6). He looks primed to assume a top-nine role for the Seattle Kraken in 2024-25.

3. Carson Rehkopf

6’2” | C/LW | Kitchener Rangers | OHL | 2023 round 2 pick 

52 goals | 43 assists | 60 games played | 1.58 PPG

Rehkopf led the OHL in goals scored per game and finished second in total goals. His 95 points were sixth in that league. 

Rehkopf ranks slightly above Jagger Firkus and David Goyette who have higher raw point totals in the CHL for two reasons. First, and most importantly, Rehkopf is younger than Goyette and Firkus. Accomplishing nearly comparable production while being nine months younger than Goyette and seven months younger than Firkus is important in evaluating current prospect performance and making projections for the future.

Second, the OHL remains the strongest of the CHL leagues, though the margin separating it from the WHL has narrowed. So, Rehkopf’s OHL scoring gets a fraction more credit than would comparable scoring in Firkus’ WHL.

As we investigated previously, Rehkopf’s scoring pace of greater than 1.5 points per game gives him about a 20 percent chance of emerging as a top NHL performer and a 60 percent chance of establishing himself as an NHL lineup regular within the next five years.

Rehkopf’s adjusted NHLe would make him the top prospect in eight other systems.

4. David Goyette

5’10” | C | Multiple teams | OHL/AHL | 2022 round 2 pick

40 goals | 77 assists | 69 games played | 1.7 PPG

With Rehkopf scoring 50 goals in his age 18 season, and Firkus leading the CHL in scoring, David Goyette flew under the radar a bit, but his season deserves more attention. Goyette led the OHL in scoring. Goyette accomplished this in part on the strength of teaming with one of the very best lines in junior hockey in Dalibor Dvorsky and Quentin Musty, but late in the season, Sudbury broke up that line and moved Goyette to the second line to drive play on his own. He continued to produce, recording 20 points in the team’s final 10 regular-season games. 

Goyette was also second in the OHL in assists and third in points per game. Similar to Rehkopf, he would be the top prospect for eight other teams in this ranking.

5. Jagger Firkus

5’10” | RW | Moose Jaw Warriors | WHL | 2022 round 2 pick

61 goals | 65 assists | 63 games played | 2.0 PPG

While Goyette led the OHL in scoring, Firkus led the entire CHL in that department, notching 126 points in 63 games, a truly amazing two-points-per-game pace. (What’s more: While it is not factored into this ranking, he leads the WHL playoff in scoring with 31 points in 18 games as of this posting.)

Firkus’s scoring pace matched Oliver Bjorkstrand’s pace in Oliver’s 2014-15 WHL season, his last with the Portland Winterhawks. Bjorkstrand played 68 AHL games the season after, scoring 27 goals and 18 assists, as well as 12 NHL games, with four goals and four assists. 

Could Bjorkstrand’s trajectory be a model for Firkus? It’s interesting to consider because while Bjorkstrand is and always was slight in stature, he amazes with his ability to stay sturdy on the puck and his skates in the face of consistent size disadvantages. Firkus faces the same challenge and then some, measuring in an inch shorter and perhaps 15 pounds lighter than Bjorkstrand. Can Firkus make the same leap? It’s the challenge in front of him, and it may take time. That said, he couldn’t have done much more in the junior ranks. His statistics say he has approximately a 50 percent chance of becoming an NHL regular within five years.

6. Ryan Winterton

6’2” | F | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2021 round 3 pick

22 goals | 13 assists | 58 games played | 0.6 PPG

Winteron had a normal and fully healthy season for the first time in recent memory, and it allowed him to put together an impressive AHL season, topping 20 goals offensively. And while it doesn’t factor into an NHLe ranking, he was an important defensive presence too, finishing 11th overall in plus-minus and first among players who played at least one AHL game at age 21 this season, while also logging penalty kill minutes. 

While his scoring pace matched Ryker Evans and trailed Logan Morrison at the AHL level, he is (narrowly) ahead of both on this list because he is younger than both by a wide margin–22 months younger than Evans and 10 months younger than Morrison.

7. Logan Morrison

6’0” | C | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | undrafted 

16 goals | 25 assists | 64 games played | 0.64 PPG

Entering the Kraken system as an undrafted free agent, Morrison wasted no time winning fans amongst the Coachella Valley staff. He not only secured a spot as a lineup regular from the jump, he also earned a top-unit power-play position almost immediately. Morrison ended the season tied for 17th in scoring and tied for ninth in plus-minus among all AHL rookies. 

Morrison ranks fifth among all undrafted free agents across the league in this adjusted NHLe ranking. 

8. Ryker Evans

5’11” | LD | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2021 round 2 pick

2 goals | 13 assists | 25 games played | 0.6 PPG

Evans may arrive later on this list than expected, but I think that says less about Evans than about those in front of him on this list, each of whom had impressive scoring seasons that put them within or on the verge of the top 100 overall skating prospects in this data-only look.

Evans’ story is well-known at this point. He went undrafted during his first draft season only to develop physically and on the ice in the year that followed. The Kraken were so impressed they made him a second-round draft pick as an overager. From there, Evans has done nothing but validate Seattle’s feelings about him. 

Evans’s relatively late physical maturity has put him slightly behind the development curve of the very top prospects in the game, and this hurts him in this NHLe ranking. Even so, he checks in as the league’s 125th overall prospect and 14th-ranked defense prospect who played games in the AHL this season.

Evans may never be a star NHL performer, but his prospect track record (and 36 NHL games during the 2023-24 season) suggest he should have a career as a bottom-four blueliner.

9. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard

6’0” | C | HV71 | SHL | 2023 round 2 pick 

9 goals | 12 assists | 50 games played | 0.42 PPG

Oscar Fisker Mølgaard is an under-discussed prospect whose data profile took a marked step forward this year. Mølgaard, who doesn’t turn 20 until next February, had 21 points in the SHL, Sweden’s top professional league. This led the league among all players who played at least one game this past season as an 18-year-old, and, perhaps even more impressively, ranked fifth overall among all players who played at age 23 or younger.

In this way, the data has started to catch up to glowing scouting reports, which credit his sound defensive game, pace, and ability to drive play. Perhaps the strongest proof of concept with Mølgaard is the fact that he has already logged 91 games in the SHL. This is the 10th-most in SHL history for a player his age.

Mølgaard capped off his strong season playing for Denmark at the 2024 IIHF Men’s World Championship where he was the youngest player on the roster by four years.

10. Ville Ottavainen

6’5” | RD | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 2021 round 4 pick 

8 goals | 26 assists | 70 games played | 0.49 PPG

Similar to Mølgaard, Ville Ottavainen is another European prospect who saw his scoring data tick upward during the 2023-24 season. Drafted as a height-weight-speed prospect, he started to really put things together in his first year in North America this season, recording eight goals and 26 assists in 70 games for Coachella Valley. He also led the AHL among rookies in plus-minus at +27. 

If he can maintain the scoring, Ottavainen’s stature and athleticism give him a real chance to emerge as a bottom-four right defenseman in the NHL within the next two years.

11. Ty Nelson

5’9” | RD | North Bay Battalion | OHL | 2022 round 3 pick 

16 goals | 36 assists | 54 games played | 0.96 PPG

Ty Nelson’s draft-plus-two season saw his production slip slightly from his previous standard, but he still put up nearly a point per game from the blue line in the OHL, which is no small feat. A major question facing Nelson is whether he can succeed at his height, given the length disadvantages he’ll face in the professional ranks.

There was very little left for Nelson to prove at the OHL level this past year, and I got the sense he and the organization were really just biding their time until they could see how his game translates to the professional level. He’ll get his chance during the 2024-25 season. Nelson’s data suggests he has a shot to make the leap, particularly given his strong work in past seasons.

13. Eduard Sale

6’2” | RW | Multiple teams | OHL | 2023 round 1 pick 

15 goals | 23 assists | 49 games played | 0.78 PPG

Eduard Sale’s draft-minus-one year (at age 17) was immensely productive in the Czech U20 league. And he flashed dominant skills in international tournaments too. However, his draft year production in the top-level Czech professional league was mediocre. 

He has now followed that up with mediocre production playing against junior competition in the OHL this year.

As Kraken general manager Ron Francis has repeatedly said, player development is not a straight line. There is reason to reserve judgment and allow Sale additional time to see if he can get his production up to the level of his ample on-puck skills.

That said, so far, Sale is looking like a scouting miss. Drafted at No. 20 overall, he was 25th in my 2023 Draft NHLe ranking, and his post-draft-year production sees him fall to the 329th overall prospect in hockey. The team bypassed players with obviously superior data profiles in the first round in 2023 to draft Sale. The choice was surprising at the time. And, while the jury is still out, the early signs are not good.

17. Lukas Dragicevic

6’1” | RD | Multiple teams | WHL/AHL | 2023 round 2 pick

14 goals | 37 assists | 69 games played | 0.74 PPG

Unlike Sale, Dragicevic had a highly productive draft season that made him the No. 8 overall prospect in my 2023 NHL Draft data-only ranking. Add to that the fact that he’s a 6-foot-1, right-shot defenseman, and Seattle’s 2023 second-round draft pick seemed like one to be excited about.

However, his offensive production took a step back across the board this season in his third year on the blue line for the WHL’s Tri-City Americans. After 75 points in his draft season, he managed just 50 this year. And while there was discussion that he was focusing on improvements to his defense, his plus-minus plummeted as well from a -2 in his draft year to -31 this season. 

All of that said, Tri-City struggled as a group this year. His raw scoring decline is due, at least in part, to a decline in talent around him, as the team scored 50 fewer goals total this season than last. Tri-City’s 49 standings points in 2023-24 were second worst in the WHL. Arguably, Dragicevic may be entitled to a mulligan given the group around him, but it’s also fair to say he wasn’t able to elevate that team. He faces a very important year ahead.

20. Tyson Jugnauth

5’11” | LD | Multiple teams | NCAA/WHL | 2022 round 4 pick

7 goals | 36 assists | 54 games played | 0.8 PPG

No player helped his stock over the back half of the 2023-24 season more than Tyson Jugnauth. In December, Jugnauth made the rare decision to leave his college (the University of Wisconsin) and join a junior club (the Portland Winterhawks). Since that time, Jugnauth’s offensive game has exploded. Entrusted with a power play role and the ability to activate through the neutral zone and into the offensive end, he tallied seven goals and 34 assists in Portland’s last 41 games. This scoring pace ranked seventh among all WHL defensemen in 2023-24.

Like Evans, Jugnauth has been on a slower development path, which hurts him in the NHLe ranking. But if he can prove his scoring this season was no fluke, there may be a player here that Seattle should sign and develop long-term.

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What surprises you? Anything look off? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter/X at @deepseahockey and @sound_hockey.