Everything is happening this week. The Florida Panthers held on by the tips of their claws to claim the Stanley Cup. The Coachella Valley Firebirds got mired in Hershey mud tantalizingly close to an AHL Championship for the second straight postseason. 

Off the ice, former Firebirds coach Dan Bylsma must immediately turn his attention to building out his Kraken coaching staff. Meanwhile, the Kraken professional scouts and front office are focused on acquiring some scoring to boost Seattle’s floundering offense as the calendar year turns on July 1. 

Oh yeah, and that NHL Draft starts tomorrow. We published the Sound Of Hockey Big Board on Tuesday. And, on Wednesday, we shared our new video scouting resource. 

Today, we adjust our focus squarely onto the Kraken and preview the 2024 NHL Draft from the team perspective, reviewing the front office’s historical approach, where the team stands, what opportunities it has, and where it may go when the 2024 NHL Draft kicks off on Friday at 4:00 p.m. PT. With a hat tip to John Barr for data visualizations and the Seattle Kraken PR Department for additional historical draft information, let’s dive in.

Drafter Ron, a history

This is the fourth NHL Draft in Seattle Kraken history, all led by general manager Ron Francis and the current front office. Overall, this draft will be the eighth helmed by Francis, after he managed four drafts as the GM in Carolina.

Francis made 33 total draft picks in Carolina from 2014 to 2017, with 14 of those drafted players surpassing 100 NHL games played. 12 of those draft picks logged at least one NHL game played during the 2023-24 season. 

The Hurricanes utilized their top draft pick in each of Francis’ first three drafts on rangy (6-foot-1 or taller), two-way blue line prospects: Haydn Fleury (No. 7 overall in 2014), Noah Hanifin (No. 5 overall in 2015), and Jake Bean (No. 13 overall in 2016). After that, Francis’ Hurricanes took two forwards with mid-to-late first-round picks: Julien Gauthier (No. 21 overall in 2016) and Martin Necas (No. 12 overall in 2017). Two of those first-rounders qualify as success stories in Hanifin and Necas, with Bean an additional solid defenseman. Fleury and Gauthier remain in the league as depth options.

2015 was a banner year for Francis as a drafter. As mentioned, the Hurricanes drafted Hanifin at No. 5 overall that year–the highest Francis has selected a defenseman–and followed that up by selecting Sebastian Aho at No. 35 near the top of the second round. Hanifin has played in 678 NHL games, the most of any Francis pick. Aho has scored 557 points, the most of any player drafted by a Francis team. Hanifin and Aho join Seattle’s Matty Beniers as Francis’ three draft picks to have been named to a NHL All-Star Team.

Francis’ Carolina teams found above-average success uncovering NHL players in the second and third rounds. Aho is joined by Warren Foegle (67 overall in 2014), Eetu Luostarinen (42 overall in 2017), and Morgan Geekie (67 overall in 2017) as regular NHL contributors with 200-plus NHL games played, having been drafted in the second or third rounds of Francis’ four Carolina drafts. Francis’ four-for-nine, 44 percent hit rate in generating players logging 200-plus games played in this range dwarfs the league average of approximately 20 percent from this time period.

The early returns from Francis’ Seattle drafts suggest that Francis and his staff may have continued that run of success drafting between the 30’s and 90’s. In my data-only ranking of 2023-24 NHL-affiliated prospects, I had six of Seattle’s second- and third-round picks within the top 125 of prospects in the NHL: Jani Nyman (49 overall in 2022), Carson Rehkopf (50 overall in 2023), David Goyette (61 overall in 2022), Jagger Firkus (35 overall in 2022), Ryan Winterton (67 overall in 2022), and Ryker Evans (35 overall in 2021). 

And credit the Seattle Kraken PR Department for this tidbit: Winterton is one of only two third-round draft picks selected in the last three years to play in a regular-season NHL game so far. Indeed, his nine games played is most by a player drafted in the third round over the last three years, ahead of Columbus Blue Jacket Stanislav Svozil who registered two NHL games in 2022-23.

With the arguable exception of Evans, none of Seattle’s second- and third-round picks have yet established themselves as NHL regulars, so the jury is still out. But I’d wager the run of above-average success will continue.

Unlike in Carolina, though, Francis’ Seattle drafts have clearly tilted toward offense early. Each of Seattle’s first-round picks have been forwards: Matty Beniers (2 overall in 2021), Shane Wright (4 overall in 2022), and Eduard Sale (20 overall in 2023). Drawing back further, Seattle has drafted eight forwards against only two defensemen, and one goaltender in the first two rounds in Francis’ three drafts.

(Author’s note: The charts above cover drafted skaters only.)

Finally, while Francis and his staff have been active in making trades at the trade deadline during his Carolina and Seattle tenures–adding 14 draft picks in eight different trades–the same cannot be said for his teams’ draft day approach. 

Francis’ teams tend to stick-and-pick, having completed only one trade during his seven drafts–a 2022 deal that saw the Kraken send fourth- and fifth-round picks to the Boston Bruins for a third-round pick the team used to select Ben MacDonald. (The Kraken continue to hold MacDonald’s rights as he plays at Harvard University, but the forward has not signed a contract with the team.)

Furthermore, Francis’ teams have never traded a current year’s draft pick for a player in the run up to a draft. (The Oliver Bjorkstrand trade happened after the 2022 draft, using 2023 draft picks.) Context is important here, though. Francis’ teams in Carolina and Seattle have been in the building phase during his tenures. That is a fact worth knowing given the sense among fans that there is urgency for the Kraken to add to the NHL roster now using draft or prospect assets. This would be a departure for Francis.

The Kraken system, deep with NHL-caliber forward talent, lacks the same depth on the blue line

Public analyst opinions on the Kraken prospect pool vary, ranging from approximately average to elite. My data-only evaluation is fond of Seattle’s prospect pool, placing it among the best in the league.

All agree that the Kraken are remarkably deep in the forward ranks, particularly for an organization that has only existed for three years. Rankings that have the Kraken lower tend to emphasize the lack of depth on the blue line and in goal, as well as the absence of players that project as high-end scorers at the NHL level.

While the latter point is not entirely unfounded, I think it undersells Shane Wright’s 2023-24 season, which was quietly excellent (and continued on a historic pace in the AHL postseason). Even beyond Wright, Jani Nyman, David Goyette, Jagger Firkus, and Carson Rehkopf all turned in high-scoring seasons that ought not be discounted entirely merely due to scouting and projection questions.

I also think public analysts may be sleeping on the potential of goalie Niklas Kokko, whose combined regular season and postseason save percentage (.921) was second in Liiga, behind only 36-year-old goaltender Niko Hovinen. Indeed, his strong postseason play led Pelicans to the Liiga Finals. He may be hurt by the fact that his worst few weeks of the season fell during the World Junior Championships, when the most eyes were on him. I tend to subscribe to the view with goalies that you believe it when you see it at the NHL level, but Kokko is checking every box so far. He’ll likely be part of a goalie tandem in Coachella Valley in 2024-25.

As far as blue line depth goes, I think the critique is fair, though Seattle’s short history is important context. Drafted players typically follow a two-to-five-year timeline to the NHL, and the Kraken are still toddler-aged as a franchise. 

It appears likely the team’s highest-drafted blueliner, left defenseman Ryker Evans (35 overall in 2021), will surpass our 200 games played threshold. Beyond Evans, though, questions emerge. 

Righty Ty Nelson (No. 68 overall in 2022) has produced at the junior level but plateaued slightly and faces developmental questions surrounding his height. Righty Lukas Dragicevic (57 overall in 2023) has one standout junior season under his belt, scoring 75 points in 2022-23, but his offensive production regressed in 2023-24, and his defensive game remains suspect. Left defenseman Tyson Jugnauth (100 overall in 2022) has been on a slower development path, but he provided high-end production after joining the Portland Winterhawks in December, 2023. Finally, right-shot Ville Ottavainen (99 overall in 2021) impressed with his height-speed-skill package in Coachella Valley this past season but will search for a bit more consistency in the coming years. 

All told, there are more questions than answers on defense. A couple defensemen–perhaps Evans and Ottavainen–could emerge as bottom-half NHL contributors, but the odds of a top-of-the-lineup player emerging seem slim. Dragicevic may have that potential, but he has a long, long way to go.

For more reading on Seattle’s prospects, check out our Sound Of Hockey consensus prospect ranking and my data-only deep dive on the Seattle system.

The Kraken have surplus draft capital again

Teams are allocated seven draft picks for each entry draft. But for the third straight year, the Kraken will exceed that standard allocation by virtue of accumulating draft picks in trades. Here is a snapshot of Seattle’s draft capital entering Friday night:

The No. 8 overall pick is the third-highest assigned pick in Kraken history. Seattle traded its own fifth-round draft choice (No. 137 overall) to Colorado on Dec. 15, 2023, for Tomas Tatar.

The strength of the 2024 NHL Draft is in a handful of high-end blue line prospects

As detailed in our Sound Of Hockey Big Board post, our data-only analysis sees four standout defense prospects after consensus top-choice Macklin Celebrini: Zeev Buium (No. 2), Zayne Parekh (No. 3), Artyom Levshunov (No. 4), and Sam Dickinson (No. 5). The scouts largely agreed, ranking all four within the top-eight: Buium (No. 4 on the Big Board), Parekh (No. 8), Levshunov (No. 3), and Dickinson (No. 7).

For my money, I see a group of seven players at the top of the draft: the four defensemen mentioned above, and forwards Celebrini, Cayden Lindstrom, and Ivan Demidov. After that I see a second tier that drops off in talent in the teens, and a third tier that tails off around No. 40. From the Kraken perspective, the hope would be to secure a player in the top group and then another in the third tier with the team’s first two picks.

Projecting Seattle’s approach in the 2024 NHL Draft 

Based on the confluence of organizational need and players likely to be available, I’d lean toward Seattle selecting its first-ever first-round defenseman on Friday. 

In particular, Buium and Dickinson stand out to me as players that meet the high-end, two-way profile Francis sought at the top of the draft in Carolina. Dickinson has even been compared to Noah Hanifin by several analysts, including by friend of the SOH Pod, Chris Peters, and is probably the “best” fit for the “Francis profile,” given his 6-foot-3 frame.

Buium is just a bit shorter than Francis’ previous picks at 6-foot-0, but his frame isn’t so far off from Vince Dunn, whom Francis signed to the largest contract, on annual average value basis, ever awarded by a Francis team.

Levshunov is an intriguing fit who checks all of the boxes like Dickinson, but he’s almost certain to be off the board as early as the second overall pick. 

Parekh is a bit less conventional and may not fit the two-way profile Francis has drafted early in the past. But that is not to say Parekh wouldn’t be the pick if he were available at No. 8. He has been compared by some to Erik Karlsson, and I’ll simply tease that we have some content coming on Parekh tomorrow.

In the past I have voiced caution against overdrafting defensemen in the first round. Macro analyses of draft success rates suggest that forwards drafted high tend to hit at a higher rate than their counterparts on defense. It strikes me that most of this differential is likely attributable to overvaluing the defensive defenseman profile. Such prospects often fail because they can never add competent offensive capacity to their game. I’m not as concerned about the four blueliners listed above in this regard because each potentially profiles as a play-driving offensive defenseman. 

What else can we predict? We should see the team select a goaltender at some point in the draft. In each of Francis’ drafts, his team has tabbed a goalie somewhere in the second-to-sixth rounds: Visa Vedenpää (168 overall in 2023), Niklas Kokko (58 overall in 2022), Semyon Vyazovoi (163 overall in 2021), Eetu Mäkiniemi (104 overall in 2017), Jack Lafontaine (75 overall in 2016), Callum Booth (93 overall in 2015), and Alex Nedeljkovic (37 overall in 2014). I’d expect that trend to continue since the team has only signed Kokko to a contract to date. (The team also signed undrafted goalie Victor Ostman this spring.)

Could we see a trade? As we recounted above, history suggests that it is unlikely. But a few contextual factors lead me to believe that a trade is still possible. 

I don’t view the 2024 NHL Draft as particularly deep through the second and third rounds where the Kraken have four picks. If Seattle sees one of its last highly ranked players slipping towards the end of the first round or in the middle of the second round between its picks, could the Kraken package multiple selections to move up? It’s not inconceivable. 

For the same reason, if there is an appealing veteran on offer for a second- or third-round pick that could deliver on the team’s urgent NHL need for scoring, the Kraken would at least need to consider it.

Finally, the team has now built out a solid prospect pipeline, which it could not legitimately say as recently as one year ago. This could alter the team’s calculus on the volume of draft selections it needs to make.

Parting thoughts

We have one more pre-draft post coming on Friday morning. Do you have any last minute draft thoughts, predictions, or questions? Let us know in the comments below or on X @sound_hockey or @deepseahockey.