The Kraken wrapped up a five-game homestand with a 4-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, a game that could arguably be considered their worst of the season. Until that game, the Kraken had been competitive in every game, even when outplayed. Carolina is a strong team, and losses like that will happen, but to walk away with only one point out of a possible six in the final three games of the homestand raises questions about just how good this team is this season. My answer: I really don’t know.
The Kraken are 4-4-1, with several performances that inspire optimism about the team, but also some areas of concern. Before the season started, I would have likely been content with this record at this point. The first nine games of the schedule were neither particularly easy nor overly challenging, with five of the nine matchups against playoff teams from last season, implying that a .500 points percentage for this season might be acceptable.
Insights to date
It is way too early to know if any of these insights will persist over the entire season, but here are a few things that have stood out over the first nine games.
Compete
One noticeable improvement this season is the Kraken’s compete level and their ability to bounce back when trailing. Even in the Carolina game, where they were badly outplayed for two periods, they managed to claw back with a goal from Jared McCann to get within one. They couldn’t close the gap, but they generated several good looks at the net after McCann’s goal, hinting at a momentum shift. Although it was their worst game of the season, they still managed to give themselves a chance in the third period.
Scoring
Another early insight is that the team seems to be scoring more this season. They are averaging 3.0 goals per game, compared to 2.2 through the first nine games last season. Their shooting percentage is 10.5 percent, which isn’t great, but it’s an improvement from last season’s 9.1 percent. According to Natural Stat Trick, however, the Kraken have averaged fewer high-danger shots this season, which might indicate another issue—they aren’t generating as many quality shots as last year. This could be related to the small sample size and the varying quality of opponents so far this season, but it could be indicative of a problem.
Face-offs
The Kraken won only 31 percent of face-offs in the second period of last Thursday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets. Winnipeg scored twice in that period, so I went back and reviewed the goals for the entire game to see if any face-off losses were linked to goals against. They weren’t; possession had changed hands multiple times since the previous face-off on all Winnipeg goals. Longtime readers and listeners know we’ve discussed the (un)importance of face-offs for some time, but it’s worth checking in on this topic periodically.
I’ve added face-offs—specifically, ‘shot attempts after a face-off’—as an area for deeper investigation in the coming weeks. That list is getting long.
Other Musings
- One concerning trend is that the Kraken have routinely given up the first goal of the game this season. In six of the nine games, they’ve allowed the first goal, going 2-3-1 in those games. While that record is better than the league average, it’s not a habit they should continue.
- Saturday’s game against the Hurricanes marked the first time this season that Andre Burakovsky didn’t see any ice time on the power play.
- It was great to see Matty Beniers get going with two goals against Winnipeg on Thursday, including the late third-period tip-in goal that tied the game.
- The reunited line of Beniers, Jared McCann, and Jordan Eberle seems to be working well. That trio has scored four goals over the last two games, though they’re currently the only line producing.
- Oliver Bjorkstrand is averaging 14:30 of ice time this season, nearly two minutes less than last year. This is partly due to more penalty-kill time for the team and his reduced power play time early on. Regardless, I’d like to see him get more ice time.
- I’ve liked the power play this season; the Kraken seem to have several zone-entry options and more variety once they establish possession. One thing that surprised me in the Hurricanes game was Bjorkstrand playing on the left point in a couple of early power plays. In at least one later opportunity, he returned to his usual right point, but neither position generated any shot attempts. This is something I’ll keep an eye on over the next few games.
- Nothing would please me more than seeing Shane Wright put up a couple of points against the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday.
- Just a reminder: the Kraken are still off to their best start in franchise history,
- At this point in the 2022-23 season, the Seattle Kraken went on an incredible run, securing 25 out of a possible 28 points from games 10 to 23. This feels like a great time to put together a similar stretch.
- Speaking of incredible stretches of play, the Everett Silvertips have been on fire this season, with a record of 12-2-0 and six consecutive wins. Their next home game is on November 9, and the Kraken have no game that night.
Performances of the week
- Sawyer Mynio (SEA-WHL) – Seattle Thunderbirds defenseman and Vancouver Canucks prospect Sawyer Mynio recorded seven points over his last four games.
- Carson Rehkopf (BRA-OHL) – Kraken forward prospect Carson Rehkopf posted six points in two games over the weekend for the Brampton Steelheads.
- Jared McCann (SEA) – Last week, I mentioned that Jordan Eberle is having the best season start of his career. This week, I’m highlighting Jared McCann for his own strong season start.
Goal of the week
I just love how smooth this looks.
Misa ➡️ Rehkopf 🤩 pic.twitter.com/uAdpPwL3RC
— Brampton Steelheads (@OHLSteelheads) October 26, 2024
The week ahead
Maybe it’s just my nerves talking, but this feels like a crucial week in the early stages of the season for the Kraken, as they head to eastern Canada for games against the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Ottawa Senators, followed by a Sunday afternoon matchup with the Boston Bruins. Coincidentally, all three Canadian teams currently sit at a .500 points percentage, identical to the Kraken. Regardless of their records, I don’t think any of these games will be easy, and this week should serve as a good benchmark for the team. Securing four out of eight points would be acceptable, but earning five or more would be a nice confidence boost for the season.
This might be too much work to track. It just seems like the Kraken swallow way too many “answer goals” within about three minutes. It becomes maddening after a while and is starting to feel inevitable.
I’ll be watching to see if Bylsma can will this team to consistently play 60-minute games. It looked like Rod Brind Amor got that done last Saturday.
I’ve got this logic defined somewhere in my computer and will break it out next week. I don’t think it is as prevalent as you think this season, but the data should give us the answer. I feel like he happened every game in season one. 😐
It has happened twice this season, where the Kraken score and the other team answers within 3 minutes.
1. Flyers to go back up 2-1. Kraken won 6-4
2. Avs to go back up 2-1. Avs won 3-2
The Avs goal was right at the limit of 3 minutes, sitting at 2:59. To me it is more concerning the 6 times they gave up first goal.
Saturday’s game was really surprising given how they’d looked in the previous games. Ryker seemed to have his worst game of the year and the team overall looked totally discombobulated and were flailing all over the place. I’m going to be more patient these first few months as this group still needs to adapt to the new coaching staff as well as the new teammates. Still too early to know but they seem like a team that has a decent chance to make the playoffs.
Do you not attribute a large part of this fall off to Dunn being out? He has played in 3 of their 4 wins. When Dunn, Montour, and Evans are on three different pairings, there is offense being driven from the back end.
For a gut-punch of a no-context statistic, the team scored as many goals (7) in the Nashville game alone as they have scored in the five total games without Vince Dunn. I’m getting a 29 sweater. Speaking of which, when is the team going to announce a third sweater for the year? With Totems merch appearing in the opening video for home games this year, you know it’s got to be a Totems tribute. That will be sweet. Oh, but it would be a waste to not get a #7 Totems tribute sweater! And that “C” would work. Maybe #29 will be a Winter Classic sweater instead.
Golden Guyle’s sweater would be sweat, although of course #12 with the C on it would be good too. Think I might still have an old Fielder jersey, falling apart at the seams, and maybe a Vince Abbey feathered hat as well.
Nobody’s talking about Joey getting the start.
I was amused that he got #1 star of the game according to NHL.com despite giving up 3 goals. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. It shows just how thoroughly dominated the Kraken were on Saturday.
Somebody else was surprised and commented about that on the Kraken FB page (unless that was you) I don’t know what matrix they use for that award but it would be worth finding out.
It is either the Kraken or local media. It varies and clearly there is some sort of inherent and not necessarily intentional bias built in there.
Wasn’t me! This website is the extent of my social media presence.
Getting the No.1 star is surprising… but Carolina had 93 shot attempts and Joey stopped 35 of 38 for a .921 SV% and a MoneyPuck/NST average GSAx of 1.165. He was definitely worthy of recognition.
Maybe it’s just coincidence, but it would be hard to take away from that game without talking about the goaltending, and considering the borderline vitriol on here lately, it’s not surprising there were no Three Takeaways following the game. Me saying this may seem rather rich considering in the past I’ve been a strong critic of the goaltending. I’ve also been critical of what I viewed as a “coddling” attitude towards Grubauer. Lately, however, there seems to be a view that “praising” Joey is either biased or an affront to Grubauer… and the tone in that expression has, to me, sometimes seemed a bit mean-spirited.
In a rough outing, Joey was very good.
Going into the season I looked at the first ten games and was hopeful the Kraken could top .500 in that stretch. It was five teams who made the playoffs and five who missed. Turns out looking at it that way was a mistake.
I think we are going to be hearing an old refrain Darren used to use quite a bit. All the sudden in the West, there’s a “stacked Central Division”. Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota and Winnipeg all look like legitimate playoff teams. Nashville was on a slow start, but has now won three in a row and St Louis also seems to be a serious threat (32 Thoughts today). That’s six of the first nine… and remember, Dallas was a road back-to-back.
In the remaing three the Kraken are 2-1 with the Flyers looking like the only “pushover”. I don’t know if folks really realize just how tough the schedule has been. New coach, new systems, two new centers and now missing our No.1 defenseman… 4-4-1 against that opposition isn’t bad and on the ice I think there’s been a lot to like.
It seems to be a “hot topic” and I hesitate to bring it up… but Carolina took 93 shots… 39 on goal! When Joey is on the ice teams are averaging almost ten more shots per game with around seven more shots on net. That average includes the Calgary game where they surrendered a season low 22 shots on goal. Other than that game, Daccord has faced: 38, 33, 36 and 39 shots on goal – an average of 36.5. When he hasn’t gotten the start the Kraken have surrendered… 25, 23, 25, 28. Even with that Flames number, Daccord’s 32.84 SA/60 is 13th in the league. His counter-part’s 26.08 is 54th.
It seems like they’ve been having to play two different games.
I think I’m gonna wait until the twenty games Bylsma talked about before I start to worry. They’re sorting things out against a very tough schedule… I think it’s gonna be a good season in the end.
Go Kraken!!!
I don’t necessarily think that our 500 record is a how we will finish out, very difficult schedule and missing a key player…. As you mentioned.
I still feel we have a very good chance of getting into the playoffs but we’re in for a first round exit if we do.
I had no idea that the shots on net were that different between goalies. Daccord has better rebound and puck coverage stats as well so it’s not because of his play. I feel on average Daccord has had the more difficult matchups, I guess that translates into shots…..
The problem with match-up idea is the Kraken actually have a positive goal differential when they face 30+ shots on goal and a negative differential when they face less. This is a very, very small sample size, but I suspect it’s not as much about the opponent as it is about having to play a different game.
Your talking about two different goalies, the X factor.
Exactly
That is an excellent point and one that really should we should permit to reduce our collective blood pressure. The teams that the Kraken have played so far have by no means been scrubs, and a few of them, like Dallas and Carolina, have been legitimate contenders. Given the circumstances (the Dunn injury, the line juggling, the hostile scheduling, and everyone trying to get on the same page with the system) the team has performed above reasonable expectations. Also, you have to think that things are going to get better with the rest of the lines shaking into place behind the Beniers line and the special teams working their way into shape.
I hope Bylsma goes back to the Stephenson-Schwartz-Bjorkstrand line that they were rolling with before. They were killer together. At least I thought so, but Coach knows better than I do.
I really feel that this line juggling has a lot to do with Burkey. I agree that the Stephenson-Schwartz-Bjorkstrand line was good and also Mattys line is looking great right now. What’s that leave us with, we don’t want Burkey playing with Wright… I don’t anyway. Wright is a good rookie but he’s needs a more responsible player in the defensive end with him. Our 4th line was great with Tanev, Gourde, kartye. Basically a just a bad left over players line and two of the three don’t deserve it.
Yeah, the Wright line is the tough one. Yes, Tolvanen has a great shot and plays physical. Yes Burakovsky has skill and creativity. In theory, it would make sense to put them on a line together with a guy like Wright who has a talent for opening passing lanes, but right now they are all in a bit of a funk. Tolvanen has been unlucky in his shooting, and Burakovsy… I was at the Carolina game, and watching Burakovsky was tragic, not because he wasn’t playing hard or doing the right things–he was–but because the Hockey Gods seem to have it in for him. It was incredible. On many occasions, he put himself into position to score. He found weak spots in Carolina’s defense and slipped into them at opportune moments. He was doing the right things, but then when the puck came to him the world turned into a silent film comedy. The puck would hit his tape and bounce into the air before fluttering out of the offensive zone, or it would hit him in the skates and pinball around, and he would have to squander two seconds worth of wide open ice trying to calm it down. If it is true that players make their own luck to some degree, I would say that Burakovsky is in his own head right now, trying too hard, “gripping his stick too tightly” as they would say. It’s kind of like what happened with Matty last year. He is a very good player. He just needs to believe that again.
But back to the original point, Shane Wright is stuck between two players who are struggling, and that is no place for a rookie to be. Of course it would be best for him to be playing beside a pair of veterans who are rolling, but Matty looks so good between Eberle and McCann that that is not an option. Coach could switch Bjorkstrand and Burakovsky, but that, as we have seen, interrupts the chemistry of Stephenson’s line, and, as great as Bjorkstrand is, I don’t think that his game pairs with Shane’s as well as Burakovsky’s does. Bjorkstrand plays a little too much like Shane does which makes them kind of redundant together. I would be tempted to see what it would look like to switch Tolvanen with Kartye both to give Shane and Burky a havoc-wreaking beast to play beside and to give Gourde and Tanev a guy who can be a goal-scoring threat who demands attention from defenses. I really like that idea now that I think about it. Now, if only reality would play along.
On another local Kraken podcast recently I heard an idea that sounded worthwhile to me. How about putting Burakovski on the Gourd line with Tanev? Those three guys are all fast up and down the ice and could be good fit together. I think Burakovski could also bring some puckhanding skill that Kartye may not have.
I’d really like to at least see it in practice.
Was interesting to see Joey get the first back to back game so far this season. I would really like to see him get a run of games then maybe switch to Gru for a run of games. Let them get into a little groove and see what happens.
It’s early but that game was bad, we are not at that level, that’s what frustrated me about the offseason signings. Is that cap money going to keep us from getting there?
Was happy to read that Burkey wasn’t on the PP, didn’t notice. He’s been giving up the puck way too much to be on the PP, we need to keep that puck.
Carolina is obviously a very strong team that has been building for several years, with a legitimate eye on The Stanley Cup. They play as a team, skate hard, and are very disciplined. They have been to the playoffs in more consecutive years (six, I think) than Seattle has even been a franchise. That said, I didn’t feel like we were blown out, even though it was a real grind of a game.
Watching this game made me realize we have four young, very high potential guys playing who really just entered the league (Matty, Shane, Ryker and Tye) and they just need a little more time and experience.
I especially feel like Evans looked good against the highest pressure fore-checking team in the league.
Evans has looked fantastic. It’s so easy to forget he’s only 22.
Wow, great detail and you sure put in the work for your articles. Thank you. One point I would like to make is the physicallty or non-physicality the Kraken did not show against the Hurricanes. Manmy times, I looked at faceoffs and there was not one Kraken bigger than anyone on the Hurricanes on the ice. Many of their losses are attributed (maybe?) yo teams that are bigger, overall, than the kRAKEN. Also, we stopped taking the body. Maybe that size was intimidating.
The Athletic did an analysis a week or so ago and Seattle is the second smallest team both in terms of height and weight. And that’s with Oleksiak, who is the heaviest player in the league, and one of the tallest.
According to the roster, the next heaviest is Larsson at 6’3”/207. If you go by weight-to-height ratio, their “bulkiest” player after Oleksiak is Kartye (5’11”/202).
I watched the game a couple of times, and I don’t feel we were physically dominated in that game. The game was 1-0 well into the 2nd period. One could argue that was some great goaltending, but we also weren’t allowing CAR any really good scoring chances, despite all the penalties we were taking, which means we were playing physically, as well. Anyway, we missed scoring on a couple of dangerous breakaways (Tolvi and Canner) and they had an empty net goal at the end, so the score could have been a lot closer in the 3rd. Things might have been different with Dunn playing, though Mahura has actually looked great as our depth D.
This morning – Halloween – I noticed just ten games into the season… in the Pacific only Vegas and Seattle have a positive goal differential. Only five teams in the entire Western Conference have a positive differential as well.